Suffolk Coastal: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Suffolk Coastal: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Therese Coffey  (CON)
County/Area: Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 79,366
Turnout: 73.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,71358.1%54.3%
LAB17,70130.5%30.9%
LIB4,0487.0%7.0%
Green1,8023.1%3.6%
OTH8101.4%1.9%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
CON Majority16,01227.6%Pred Maj 23.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
86%
LAB
14%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
UKIP
0%

Suffolk Coastal : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Suffolk Coastal constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right8° Right
National Position9° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %56%57%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born94%89%88%
Good Education38%37%39%
Good Job51%53%51%
High SEC53%53%51%
Average Age54.449.448.5
ABC1 Class53%55%53%

Suffolk Coastal ranks #265 for "Leave", #167 for "Right" and #156 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Suffolk Coastal: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Suffolk Coastal: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Suffolk Coastal

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Suffolk Coastal at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Suffolk Coastal. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Suffolk CoastalActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Suffolk CoastalAldeburgh20152,680518741001,035
Suffolk CoastalDeben20155121355672861290
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe East20153,5111,488068700
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe North20152,6422,272502000
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe South20152,9361,49745205360
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe West20152,4001,948458000
Suffolk CoastalHacheston20151,12530917403610
Suffolk CoastalKirton20151,252278003400
Suffolk CoastalLeiston20151,7321,31042603091,743
Suffolk CoastalMartlesham20152,9539331,380000
Suffolk CoastalMelton20152,9846247666428530
Suffolk CoastalNacton and Purdis Farm20151,3334270000
Suffolk CoastalOrford and Eyke20151,01024427302180
Suffolk CoastalPeasenhall and Yoxford20151,06625013703780
Suffolk CoastalRendlesham20151,0304780000
Suffolk CoastalSaxmundham20152,22901,258001,214
Suffolk CoastalThe Trimleys20152,9841,441313000
Suffolk CoastalWenhaston and Westleton2015907393402000
Suffolk CoastalWickham Market201574630231331300
Suffolk CoastalWoodbridge20156,9613,0161,4097551,9180
WaveneyBlything2015716307002340
WaveneyHalesworth20152,040971007421,213
WaveneySouthwold and Reydon20152,16078203416490
WaveneyWrentham201564425003071290

Suffolk CoastalTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Suffolk CoastalAldeburgh3,9481,593308441006152,957
Suffolk CoastalDeben2,35455414661431014001,764
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe East3,8331,7737510347002,871
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe North4,7251,7261,4853280003,539
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe South4,7981,946992300035503,593
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe West5,2121,9491,5823720003,903
Suffolk CoastalHacheston23710128160330178
Suffolk CoastalKirton2,2491,1282500030601,684
Suffolk CoastalLeiston4,8051,12985427802011,1363,598
Suffolk CoastalMartlesham3,8371,6125097530002,874
Suffolk CoastalMelton5,0161,91039949041154603,756
Suffolk CoastalNacton and Purdis Farm2,3931,35743500001,792
Suffolk CoastalOrford and Eyke2,3151,004242271021701,734
Suffolk CoastalPeasenhall and Yoxford2,199959225123034001,647
Suffolk CoastalRendlesham2,3571,20656000001,766
Suffolk CoastalSaxmundham4,1391,4700830008013,101
Suffolk CoastalThe Trimleys4,3932,0721,0012170003,290
Suffolk CoastalWenhaston and Westleton2,1898743793870001,640
Suffolk CoastalWickham Market1515020212100112
Suffolk CoastalWoodbridge6,3592,3581,02247725665004,763
WaveneyBlything1,6867193080023501,262
WaveneyHalesworth3,7111,142543004156792,779
WaveneySouthwold and Reydon2,8811,185429018735602,157
WaveneyWrentham1,749634246030212701,309
 Total77,53630,45112,7145,9181,8343,9213,23158,069

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Suffolk CoastalEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Suffolk CoastalAldeburgh4,0411,858655313038922,956
Suffolk CoastalDeben2,410984481235048151,763
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe East3,9231,842875110030132,870
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe North4,8371,8291,429217042223,539
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe South4,9112,0631,2151620124283,592
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe West5,3351,9511,727170035193,902
Suffolk CoastalHacheston2431154190121178
Suffolk CoastalKirton2,3021,18436332092141,685
Suffolk CoastalLeiston4,9181,6061,44328001061623,597
Suffolk CoastalMartlesham3,9281,707711404034182,874
Suffolk CoastalMelton5,1342,2848693750190373,755
Suffolk CoastalNacton and Purdis Farm2,4491,29841752015101,792
Suffolk CoastalOrford and Eyke2,3701,106391137087121,733
Suffolk CoastalPeasenhall and Yoxford2,2511,049357970132121,647
Suffolk CoastalRendlesham2,4131,09560137023111,767
Suffolk CoastalSaxmundham4,2371,7657553820811173,100
Suffolk CoastalThe Trimleys4,4971,9511,141143029243,288
Suffolk CoastalWenhaston and Westleton2,241916438213061131,641
Suffolk CoastalWickham Market15565359021112
Suffolk CoastalWoodbridge6,5092,7131,4123660237354,763
WaveneyBlything1,72673938553072141,263
WaveneyHalesworth3,7991,49194011601291042,780
WaveneySouthwold and Reydon2,9491,2666131230133222,157
WaveneyWrentham1,79083340313049121,310
 Total77,53633,71017,6974,04801,80180858,069

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Suffolk Coastal

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Suffolk Coastal.

Suffolk CoastalPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Suffolk CoastalAldeburgh4,0411,74766631370531062,955
Suffolk CoastalDeben2,4109184882354257231,763
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe East3,9231,7358861106845262,870
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe North4,8371,6971,4432178460383,539
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe South4,9111,9291,22916285143453,593
Suffolk CoastalFelixstowe West5,3351,8051,7421709255373,901
Suffolk CoastalHacheston2431084294132178
Suffolk CoastalKirton2,3021,1213703240101221,686
Suffolk CoastalLeiston4,9181,4711,457280851251793,597
Suffolk CoastalMartlesham3,9281,5997224046849312,873
Suffolk CoastalMelton5,1342,14388437589209543,754
Suffolk CoastalNacton and Purdis Farm2,4491,231424524224181,791
Suffolk CoastalOrford and Eyke2,3701,0413981374196201,733
Suffolk CoastalPeasenhall and Yoxford2,2519873639739141201,647
Suffolk CoastalRendlesham2,4131,029608374232191,767
Suffolk CoastalSaxmundham4,2371,64976738273971313,099
Suffolk CoastalThe Trimleys4,4971,8281,1541437846393,288
Suffolk CoastalWenhaston and Westleton2,2418554442133969211,641
Suffolk CoastalWickham Market15561359332113
Suffolk CoastalWoodbridge6,5092,5351,430366113262574,763
WaveneyBlything1,726692390533079201,264
WaveneyHalesworth3,7991,387951116661431172,780
WaveneySouthwold and Reydon2,9491,18562112351144322,156
WaveneyWrentham1,790784408133156181,310
 Total77,53631,53717,9224,0481,3752,1021,07758,061

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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