Suffolk South: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Suffolk South: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: James Cartlidge  (CON)
County/Area: Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 75,967
Turnout: 71.4%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,82960.5%57.5%
LAB15,08027.8%26.8%
LIB3,1545.8%5.9%
Green1,7233.2%4.3%
UKIP1,4492.7%5.5%
CON Majority17,74932.7%Pred Maj 30.7%
Chance of
winning
CON
93%
LAB
7%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Suffolk South : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Suffolk South constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right8° Right
National Position9° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%57%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born95%89%88%
Good Education38%37%39%
Good Job51%53%51%
High SEC54%53%51%
Average Age52.749.448.5
ABC1 Class55%55%53%

Suffolk South ranks #304 for "Leave", #142 for "Right" and #162 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Suffolk South: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Suffolk South: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Suffolk South

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Suffolk South at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Suffolk South. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Suffolk SouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
BaberghAlton20157676439154232371,025
BaberghBerners20158474239670805778
BaberghBoxford20155831276540810
BaberghBrett Vale2015693135004000
BaberghBrook20152,15141000569775
BaberghBures St Mary2015760165001740
BaberghChadacre2015014700207917
BaberghDodnash20151,8053016775815010
BaberghGlemsford and Stanstead20151,595307003881,208
BaberghGreat Cornard North20151,5311,22725804590
BaberghGreat Cornard South20152,0911,11126504430
BaberghHadleigh North20151,745914401480344290
BaberghHadleigh South20151,71882643903970
BaberghHolbrook2015016200229795
BaberghLavenham20155151230082353
BaberghLeavenheath2015841160001480
BaberghLong Melford201573326403013072,127
BaberghLower Brett201575315903461320
BaberghMid Samford20151,1453002,30003420
BaberghNayland20155992240210740
BaberghNorth Cosford2015020300303854
BaberghPinewood20151,04999787903220
BaberghSouth Cosford201568472006460
BaberghSudbury East20151,8351,21516604620
BaberghSudbury North20151,8561,04428206130
BaberghSudbury South20151,2961,013514367433208
BaberghWaldingfield20152,3314362639143600
St EdmundsburyCavendish20157790040600
St EdmundsburyClare20158080032300

Suffolk SouthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BaberghAlton3,1264433715282441375922,315
BaberghBerners3,12151325658504874712,312
BaberghBoxford1,73151711358007201,282
BaberghBrett Vale1,7427281420042001,290
BaberghBrook3,2001,306249003454702,370
BaberghBures St Mary1,339686149001570992
BaberghChadacre1,6260139001968691,204
BaberghDodnash2,82897816336731527202,095
BaberghGlemsford and Stanstead2,9661,002193002447592,198
BaberghGreat Cornard North3,5481,158928195034702,628
BaberghGreat Cornard South3,5911,422756180030102,659
BaberghHadleigh North3,6181,1205872573082211862,679
BaberghHadleigh South2,9711,119538286025802,201
BaberghHolbrook1,9700199002829781,459
BaberghLavenham1,37548911700783351,019
BaberghLeavenheath1,4167681460013501,049
BaberghLong Melford3,02244015801811841,2762,239
BaberghLower Brett1,718689146031712101,273
BaberghMid Samford3,1466531711,311019502,330
BaberghNayland1,47459122102077301,092
BaberghNorth Cosford1,7230190002848011,275
BaberghPinewood3,433822781688025202,543
BaberghSouth Cosford1,745631660059601,293
BaberghSudbury East3,4271,266839115031902,539
BaberghSudbury North3,5171,274717194042102,606
BaberghSudbury South3,4718706803452462911402,572
BaberghWaldingfield3,1611,26823714349719602,341
St EdmundsburyCavendish1,58477100402001,173
St EdmundsburyClare1,63286400345001,209
 Total73,22122,3889,2525,7743,0626,8846,87754,237

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Suffolk SouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BaberghAlton3,2431,264757173744602,314
BaberghBerners3,2381,299634267239002,313
BaberghBoxford1,79673732017674301,283
BaberghBrett Vale1,8078703202537201,290
BaberghBrook3,3201,67758034225702,370
BaberghBures St Mary1,389689227175530991
BaberghChadacre1,6876974114135301,205
BaberghDodnash2,9341,3744091401036902,095
BaberghGlemsford and Stanstead3,0771,395579126257202,197
BaberghGreat Cornard North3,6811,3888981391148902,628
BaberghGreat Cornard South3,7261,470981104406402,659
BaberghHadleigh North3,7541,6546651781226102,680
BaberghHadleigh South3,0821,346627151225402,200
BaberghHolbrook2,0448324845777901,459
BaberghLavenham1,4276482507074401,019
BaberghLeavenheath1,46979917623242601,048
BaberghLong Melford3,1351,433592351057402,239
BaberghLower Brett1,78288125522803501,273
BaberghMid Samford3,2641,321488462134602,330
BaberghNayland1,52975423621532801,092
BaberghNorth Cosford1,78880535934176001,275
BaberghPinewood3,5621,263956263105102,543
BaberghSouth Cosford1,810883279191010101,292
BaberghSudbury East3,5561,313906162827702,540
BaberghSudbury North3,6491,3839281671810902,605
BaberghSudbury South3,6011,2979341351169002,572
BaberghWaldingfield3,2801,606453731624702,341
St EdmundsburyCavendish1,64386717226961201,173
St EdmundsburyClare1,69388720212862201,209
 Total73,22132,83215,0783,1521,4491,724054,237

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Suffolk South

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Suffolk South.

Suffolk SouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
BaberghAlton3,2431,1947331741417202,314
BaberghBerners3,2381,2296102689011602,313
BaberghBoxford1,796698307177445701,283
BaberghBrett Vale1,80783130726408601,290
BaberghBrook3,3201,60555635908302,369
BaberghBures St Mary1,3896592171834640992
BaberghChadacre1,68766139942386601,206
BaberghDodnash2,9341,3113881411639202,095
BaberghGlemsford and Stanstead3,0771,329556127889702,197
BaberghGreat Cornard North3,6811,30987114019011802,628
BaberghGreat Cornard South3,7261,3909541051179402,660
BaberghHadleigh North3,7541,5736371791999102,679
BaberghHadleigh South3,0821,279604152857902,199
BaberghHolbrook2,04478846958499501,459
BaberghLavenham1,42761724071365501,019
BaberghLeavenheath1,46976716724533701,048
BaberghLong Melford3,1351,365569361709902,239
BaberghLower Brett1,782842242231174901,273
BaberghMid Samford3,2641,251464463807202,330
BaberghNayland1,52972122522844001,092
BaberghNorth Cosford1,78876634635547401,275
BaberghPinewood3,5621,186930264837902,542
BaberghSouth Cosford1,810844266204711501,292
BaberghSudbury East3,5561,23688016315510502,539
BaberghSudbury North3,6491,3049011689313802,604
BaberghSudbury South3,6011,21990813619011902,572
BaberghWaldingfield3,2801,535430742297302,341
St EdmundsburyCavendish1,643832163271282401,174
St EdmundsburyClare1,693850192131193501,209
 Total73,22131,19114,5313,1813,0062,324054,233

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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