Suffolk West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Suffolk West: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Matt Hancock  (CON)
County/Area: Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate: 76,984
Turnout: 67.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON31,64961.2%58.1%
LAB14,58628.2%27.2%
UKIP2,3964.6%7.5%
LIB2,1804.2%4.3%
Green9351.8%2.9%
CON Majority17,06333.0%Pred Maj 30.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
93%
LAB
7%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%

Suffolk West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Suffolk West constituency, the 'Anglia' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatAngliaAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position14° Right8° Right
National Position18° Nat10° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %64%57%52%
British Identity22%27%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born84%89%88%
Good Education31%37%39%
Good Job47%53%51%
High SEC48%53%51%
Average Age48.449.448.5
ABC1 Class51%55%53%

Suffolk West ranks #82 for "Leave", #38 for "Right" and #15 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Suffolk West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Suffolk West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Suffolk West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Suffolk West at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Suffolk West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Suffolk WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Forest HeathAll Saints20151,426348000607
Forest HeathBrandon East20152,32190002,33500
Forest HeathBrandon West20151,43600001,255
Forest HeathEriswell and The Rows20151,79200001,571
Forest HeathExning20154810000555
Forest HeathGreat Heath20151,331555079400
Forest HeathIceni20156780027600
Forest HeathLakenheath20151,81844001,12900
Forest HeathManor20155280479000
Forest HeathMarket20151,71900001,117
Forest HeathRed Lodge20151,45229901,19300
Forest HeathSeverals20152,88300002,741
Forest HeathSouth20156630000343
Forest HeathSt Mary's20152,5151,59101,46700
St EdmundsburyBardwell2015867309029300
St EdmundsburyBarningham2015-100000
St EdmundsburyBarrow2015845195345000
St EdmundsburyChedburgh2015-100000
St EdmundsburyHaverhill East20152,4962,28102,02700
St EdmundsburyHaverhill North20153,3322,19101,93100
St EdmundsburyHaverhill South20151,0251,04315768900
St EdmundsburyHaverhill West20152,128720085200
St EdmundsburyHundon20157520043500
St EdmundsburyIxworth2015-100000
St EdmundsburyKedington2015595223030500
St EdmundsburyRisby2015-100000
St EdmundsburyStanton2015-100000
St EdmundsburyWickhambrook20156230000617
St EdmundsburyWithersfield2015617002000363

Suffolk WestTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Forest HeathAll Saints2,4971,0162480004321,696
Forest HeathBrandon East3,9651,12543601,132002,693
Forest HeathBrandon West2,51491100007961,707
Forest HeathEriswell and The Rows5,7912,09600001,8373,933
Forest HeathExning1,3164150000479894
Forest HeathGreat Heath2,9209854110587001,983
Forest HeathIceni1,2355960024300839
Forest HeathLakenheath3,1401,1452770711002,133
Forest HeathManor1,2874580416000874
Forest HeathMarket2,9181,20100007801,981
Forest HeathRed Lodge2,7639251910760001,876
Forest HeathSeverals4,7211,64300001,5633,206
Forest HeathSouth1,1225020000260762
Forest HeathSt Mary's3,9361,2067630704002,673
St EdmundsburyBardwell1,7456992490236001,184
St EdmundsburyBarningham1,7811,209000001,209
St EdmundsburyBarrow1,5566451492630001,057
St EdmundsburyChedburgh1,40695500000955
St EdmundsburyHaverhill East5,1971,2951,18301,051003,529
St EdmundsburyHaverhill North5,1941,5771,0370914003,528
St EdmundsburyHaverhill South3,951944960145634002,683
St EdmundsburyHaverhill West3,8161,4905040597002,591
St EdmundsburyHundon2,02987300505001,378
St EdmundsburyIxworth1,5931,082000001,082
St EdmundsburyKedington1,353487182025000919
St EdmundsburyRisby1,7881,214000001,214
St EdmundsburyStanton1,6821,142000001,142
St EdmundsburyWickhambrook1,4644990000495994
St EdmundsburyWithersfield1,5195390017503171,031
 Total76,19928,8746,5908248,49906,95951,746

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Suffolk WestEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Forest HeathAll Saints2,5231,0955113944701,696
Forest HeathBrandon East4,0061,4038531372663402,693
Forest HeathBrandon West2,5401,01653370434501,707
Forest HeathEriswell and The Rows5,8512,40892729917013003,934
Forest HeathExning1,330537285336330894
Forest HeathGreat Heath2,9501,093604761674301,983
Forest HeathIceni1,2485931741839140838
Forest HeathLakenheath3,1721,251557951963402,133
Forest HeathManor1,3005071182251860874
Forest HeathMarket2,9481,264451134933901,981
Forest HeathRed Lodge2,7911,0805011111463701,875
Forest HeathSeverals4,7702,0001,02887167503,206
Forest HeathSouth1,134581139162240762
Forest HeathSt Mary's3,9771,494961331147002,672
St EdmundsburyBardwell1,76380827831452401,186
St EdmundsburyBarningham1,7991,072941123901,209
St EdmundsburyBarrow1,5726921661839701,057
St EdmundsburyChedburgh1,420864794450956
St EdmundsburyHaverhill East5,2511,6541,503782563803,529
St EdmundsburyHaverhill North5,2481,7321,4151032324603,528
St EdmundsburyHaverhill South3,9921,1671,1981081872502,685
St EdmundsburyHaverhill West3,8551,501876631262502,591
St EdmundsburyHundon2,050940275291042901,377
St EdmundsburyIxworth1,609950105812701,082
St EdmundsburyKedington1,3675652682942140918
St EdmundsburyRisby1,8061,03211340191101,215
St EdmundsburyStanton1,69997210039121901,142
St EdmundsburyWickhambrook1,4796642434713260993
St EdmundsburyWithersfield1,53571523236291901,031
 Total76,19931,65014,5872,1822,393935051,746

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Suffolk West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Suffolk West.

Suffolk WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Forest HeathAll Saints2,5231,04349340546601,696
Forest HeathBrandon East4,0061,3208251383466402,693
Forest HeathBrandon West2,54096451571936401,707
Forest HeathEriswell and The Rows5,8512,28788630128617303,933
Forest HeathExning1,3305102763332430894
Forest HeathGreat Heath2,9501,032583772266501,983
Forest HeathIceni1,2485671651864230837
Forest HeathLakenheath3,1721,186535962595702,133
Forest HeathManor1,30048011222542150874
Forest HeathMarket2,9481,2034301351526101,981
Forest HeathRed Lodge2,7911,0224811122015801,874
Forest HeathSeverals4,7701,9029958911111003,207
Forest HeathSouth1,1345581321624320762
Forest HeathSt Mary's3,9771,412933341939902,671
St EdmundsburyBardwell1,76377226632803701,187
St EdmundsburyBarningham1,7991,0358912532001,209
St EdmundsburyBarrow1,572660157184391801,058
St EdmundsburyChedburgh1,42083575428140956
St EdmundsburyHaverhill East5,2511,5461,466803607703,529
St EdmundsburyHaverhill North5,2481,6241,3781053368503,528
St EdmundsburyHaverhill South3,9921,0851,1701092665502,685
St EdmundsburyHaverhill West3,8551,422849642035402,592
St EdmundsburyHundon2,050898261301454401,378
St EdmundsburyIxworth1,6099171008401701,082
St EdmundsburyKedington1,3675372582969240917
St EdmundsburyRisby1,80699510741502301,216
St EdmundsburyStanton1,6999379540413001,143
St EdmundsburyWickhambrook1,4796342334842370994
St EdmundsburyWithersfield1,53568322137593001,030
 Total76,19930,06614,0862,2083,8941,495051,749

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)