Surrey East: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Surrey East: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Sam Gyimah  (CON)
County/Area: Surrey (South East)
Electorate: 82,004
Turnout: 72.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,31059.6%55.9%
LAB11,39619.2%19.6%
LIB6,19710.5%10.5%
MIN2,9735.0%5.0%
UKIP2,2273.8%6.1%
Green1,1001.9%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority23,91440.4%Pred Maj 36.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
94%
LAB
6%
LIB
0%
MIN
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Surrey East : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Surrey East constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right4° Right
National Position7° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%52%52%
British Identity28%29%29%
Good Health50%49%48%
UK Born91%88%88%
Good Education44%43%39%
Good Job61%56%51%
High SEC65%57%51%
Average Age50.449.248.5
ABC1 Class66%60%53%

Surrey East ranks #306 for "Leave", #128 for "Right" and #223 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Surrey East: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Surrey East: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Surrey East

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Surrey East at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Surrey East. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Surrey EastActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Reigate and BansteadHorley Central20151,88469409303460
Reigate and BansteadHorley East20148991601335071410
Reigate and BansteadHorley West20151,8775872849132010
TandridgeBletchingley and Nutfield20151,83435042150800
TandridgeBurstow, Horne and Outwood20151,73440425064700
TandridgeChaldon2015787016815000
TandridgeDormansland and Felcourt20151,3961262263061170
TandridgeFelbridge20151,1511450000
TandridgeGodstone20151,57831437680100
TandridgeHarestone201462114619326800
TandridgeLimpsfield20151,56015627123800
TandridgeLingfield and Crowhurst20151,23324840343500
TandridgeOxted North and Tandridge20151,91537253644400
TandridgeOxted South20151,63787734744600
TandridgePortley20151,14221664531800
TandridgeQueens Park20145439240124100
TandridgeTatsfield and Titsey201533959000776
TandridgeValley201570128972535800
TandridgeWarlingham East and Chelsham and Farleigh20151,40125875064900
TandridgeWarlingham West2014593023831900
TandridgeWestway201435815526524300
TandridgeWhyteleafe201447011630021600
TandridgeWoldingham2012534082000

Surrey EastTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Reigate and BansteadHorley Central6,2972,28884301,12942004,680
Reigate and BansteadHorley East4,4961,63329124292125603,343
Reigate and BansteadHorley West5,9392,1456713251,04423004,415
TandridgeBletchingley and Nutfield4,2451,859355427515003,156
TandridgeBurstow, Horne and Outwood4,4851,905444275711003,335
TandridgeChaldon1,317697014913300979
TandridgeDormansland and Felcourt3,0721,46813323832212302,284
TandridgeFelbridge1,5861,04713200001,179
TandridgeGodstone4,5301,731344413879003,367
TandridgeHarestone3,1631,189280369513002,351
TandridgeLimpsfield2,7151,415141246216002,018
TandridgeLingfield and Crowhurst3,2011,265254413446002,378
TandridgeOxted North and Tandridge4,4041,919373537445003,274
TandridgeOxted South4,6441,709915362466003,452
TandridgePortley3,5521,299246734362002,641
TandridgeQueens Park2,844899152664399002,114
TandridgeTatsfield and Titsey1,402301520006891,042
TandridgeValley3,185801330828409002,368
TandridgeWarlingham East and Chelsham and Farleigh4,2121,434264768664003,130
TandridgeWarlingham West2,5519780392526001,896
TandridgeWestway3,232842365624572002,403
TandridgeWhyteleafe2,945934230596429002,189
TandridgeWoldingham1,6351,05301620001,215
 Total79,65230,8116,8158,76411,1011,02968959,209

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Surrey EastEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Reigate and BansteadHorley Central6,4832,5281,2732202182491924,680
Reigate and BansteadHorley East4,6292,0306512241391491493,342
Reigate and BansteadHorley West6,1142,4541,0413292421442054,415
TandridgeBletchingley and Nutfield4,3702,01361225792541273,155
TandridgeBurstow, Horne and Outwood4,6172,170665178155131533,334
TandridgeChaldon1,356729958824735978
TandridgeDormansland and Felcourt3,1631,52126125739118872,283
TandridgeFelbridge1,6339721333068301,179
TandridgeGodstone4,6642,059573332188481683,368
TandridgeHarestone3,2561,46041928962161052,351
TandridgeLimpsfield2,7951,4182542262620752,019
TandridgeLingfield and Crowhurst3,2961,44440829990241132,378
TandridgeOxted North and Tandridge4,5342,03354146958361383,275
TandridgeOxted South4,7811,87399435278221333,452
TandridgePortley3,6571,5534683979181232,640
TandridgeQueens Park2,9281,12743436066141122,113
TandridgeTatsfield and Titsey1,4434531285421133731,042
TandridgeValley3,2791,13753144098461152,367
TandridgeWarlingham East and Chelsham and Farleigh4,3361,808517417206111713,130
TandridgeWarlingham West2,6261,231225207104211081,896
TandridgeWestway3,3271,130648350127211282,404
TandridgeWhyteleafe3,0321,17045331496501062,189
TandridgeWoldingham1,6831,0007110717281,214
 Total79,65235,31311,3956,1962,2271,0992,97459,209

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Surrey East

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Surrey East.

Surrey EastPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Reigate and BansteadHorley Central6,4832,3531,2912203282732144,679
Reigate and BansteadHorley East4,6291,9056642242181661643,341
Reigate and BansteadHorley West6,1142,2891,0583293461672254,414
TandridgeBletchingley and Nutfield4,3701,895624257166701423,154
TandridgeBurstow, Horne and Outwood4,6172,046678178234301683,334
TandridgeChaldon1,3566939988471240979
TandridgeDormansland and Felcourt3,1631,43627025793130982,284
TandridgeFelbridge1,633928138303414351,179
TandridgeGodstone4,6641,933586332267651843,367
TandridgeHarestone3,2561,372428289117281162,350
TandridgeLimpsfield2,7951,3432622267430842,019
TandridgeLingfield and Crowhurst3,2961,355417299146361242,377
TandridgeOxted North and Tandridge4,5341,911554469135531533,275
TandridgeOxted South4,7811,7441,007352159401493,451
TandridgePortley3,6571,455478397153221352,640
TandridgeQueens Park2,9281,048442360116251222,113
TandridgeTatsfield and Titsey1,4434141325446183781,042
TandridgeValley3,2791,049540440154581262,367
TandridgeWarlingham East and Chelsham and Farleigh4,3361,691529417280271853,129
TandridgeWarlingham West2,6261,160232207149311171,896
TandridgeWestway3,3271,040657350184331392,403
TandridgeWhyteleafe3,0321,088461314148611162,188
TandridgeWoldingham1,683955761073013341,215
 Total79,65233,10311,6236,1963,6241,4023,24859,196

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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