Surrey Heath: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Surrey Heath: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Michael Gove  (CON)
County/Area: Surrey (South East)
Electorate: 80,537
Turnout: 71.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON37,11864.2%60.5%
LAB12,17521.1%21.4%
LIB6,27110.8%10.9%
Green2,2583.9%4.4%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority24,94343.1%Pred Maj 39.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
96%
LAB
4%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Surrey Heath : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Surrey Heath constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right4° Right
National Position4° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %51%52%52%
British Identity30%29%29%
Good Health53%49%48%
UK Born88%88%88%
Good Education46%43%39%
Good Job63%56%51%
High SEC67%57%51%
Average Age49.649.248.5
ABC1 Class69%60%53%

Surrey Heath ranks #370 for "Leave", #124 for "Right" and #279 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Surrey Heath: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Surrey Heath: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Surrey Heath

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Surrey Heath at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Surrey Heath. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Surrey HeathActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
GuildfordAsh South and Tongham20156,6027461,56500999
GuildfordAsh Vale20153,25801,626000
GuildfordAsh Wharf20153,45901,939000
Surrey HeathBagshot20154,18201,06101,1960
Surrey HeathBisley20152,1550000679
Surrey HeathChobham20151,78500002,092
Surrey HeathFrimley20155,1791,6070000
Surrey HeathFrimley Green20154,09002,5411,2560145
Surrey HeathHeatherside20155,70601,475000
Surrey HeathLightwater20156,1045291,55505910
Surrey HeathMytchett and Deepcut20154,65202,92000668
Surrey HeathOld Dean20151,3351,4750000
Surrey HeathParkside20156,28601,03187000
Surrey HeathSt Michaels20152,4161,4380000
Surrey HeathSt Pauls20157,3525620000
Surrey HeathTown20152,53059739440700
Surrey HeathWatchetts20153,1381,1180000
Surrey HeathWest End20152,367061400948
Surrey HeathWindlesham20153,392305608000

Surrey HeathTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
GuildfordAsh South and Tongham5,7922,805317665004254,212
GuildfordAsh Vale4,2332,05301,0250003,078
GuildfordAsh Wharf4,5982,14301,2010003,344
Surrey HeathBagshot4,2121,9890505056903,063
Surrey HeathBisley2,9921,65400005212,175
Surrey HeathChobham2,84695300001,1172,070
Surrey HeathFrimley4,6242,56679600003,362
Surrey HeathFrimley Green4,4021,63001,0135010583,202
Surrey HeathHeatherside4,5612,63506810003,316
Surrey HeathLightwater5,1102,584224658025003,716
Surrey HeathMytchett and Deepcut5,2392,15101,350003093,810
Surrey HeathOld Dean3,5271,2191,34600002,565
Surrey HeathParkside4,6522,5970426359003,382
Surrey HeathSt Michaels3,9441,7981,07000002,868
Surrey HeathSt Pauls4,2992,90422200003,126
Surrey HeathTown3,7911,776419277286002,758
Surrey HeathWatchetts3,8262,05173100002,782
Surrey HeathWest End3,5741,5660406006272,599
Surrey HeathWindlesham3,2911,8861703380002,394
 Total79,51338,9605,2958,5451,1468193,05757,822

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Surrey HeathEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
GuildfordAsh South and Tongham5,8672,5721,014472015404,212
GuildfordAsh Vale4,2881,861525582011003,078
GuildfordAsh Wharf4,6571,951593688011203,344
Surrey HeathBagshot4,2661,929428306040103,064
Surrey HeathBisley3,0311,49647011809202,176
Surrey HeathChobham2,8831,17766685014202,070
Surrey HeathFrimley4,6842,26783420605603,363
Surrey HeathFrimley Green4,4591,792711558014003,201
Surrey HeathHeatherside4,6202,300431479010603,316
Surrey HeathLightwater5,1762,571511412022203,716
Surrey HeathMytchett and Deepcut5,3062,251713701014503,810
Surrey HeathOld Dean3,5721,2781,10614303802,565
Surrey HeathParkside4,7122,465463337011803,383
Surrey HeathSt Michaels3,9951,62197819007902,868
Surrey HeathSt Pauls4,3542,54735316805903,127
Surrey HeathTown3,8401,781629247010002,757
Surrey HeathWatchetts3,8751,77383913403502,781
Surrey HeathWest End3,6201,670558268010302,599
Surrey HeathWindlesham3,3331,81635417704702,394
 Total79,51337,11812,1766,27102,259057,822

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Surrey Heath

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Surrey Heath.

Surrey HeathPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
GuildfordAsh South and Tongham5,8672,4151,03047299176204,212
GuildfordAsh Vale4,2881,74653758273126143,078
GuildfordAsh Wharf4,6571,82660668879129153,343
Surrey HeathBagshot4,2661,81544030672417143,064
Surrey HeathBisley3,0311,41547811851103102,175
Surrey HeathChobham2,8831,1006748549153102,071
Surrey HeathFrimley4,6842,1428472067973163,363
Surrey HeathFrimley Green4,4591,67372355876156153,201
Surrey HeathHeatherside4,6202,17644447978123153,315
Surrey HeathLightwater5,1762,43252541288241173,715
Surrey HeathMytchett and Deepcut5,3062,10972870190165183,811
Surrey HeathOld Dean3,5721,1821,1161436051122,564
Surrey HeathParkside4,7122,33947633780135163,383
Surrey HeathSt Michaels3,9951,5149891906894132,868
Surrey HeathSt Pauls4,3542,4303651687475143,126
Surrey HeathTown3,8401,67864024765114132,757
Surrey HeathWatchetts3,8751,6698501346649132,781
Surrey HeathWest End3,6201,57356826861116122,598
Surrey HeathWindlesham3,3331,7273631775659112,393
 Total79,51334,96112,3996,2711,3642,55526857,818

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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