Surrey South West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Surrey South West: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Jeremy Hunt  (CON)
County/Area: Surrey (South East)
Electorate: 78,042
Turnout: 77.4%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,68355.7%52.0%
MIN12,09320.0%20.0%
LAB7,60612.6%13.0%
LIB5,9679.9%9.9%
UKIP1,0831.8%4.2%
Green00.0%0.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority21,59035.7%Pred Maj 32.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
90%
MIN
1%
LAB
7%
LIB
1%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Surrey South West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Surrey South West constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right4° Right
National Position3° Int3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %40%52%52%
British Identity32%29%29%
Good Health54%49%48%
UK Born89%88%88%
Good Education53%43%39%
Good Job66%56%51%
High SEC69%57%51%
Average Age51.249.248.5
ABC1 Class71%60%53%

Surrey South West ranks #543 for "Leave", #228 for "Right" and #457 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Surrey South West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Surrey South West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Surrey South West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Surrey South West at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Surrey South West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Surrey South WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
WaverleyBramley, Busbridge and Hascombe20153,6005550000
WaverleyChiddingfold and Dunsfold20152,751460041800
WaverleyElstead and Thursley20152,9690000846
WaverleyFarnham Bourne2015-200000
WaverleyFarnham Castle20151,438438736001,043
WaverleyFarnham Firgrove20152,19442671607330
WaverleyFarnham Hale and Heath End20152,08750152300696
WaverleyFarnham Moor Park20152,004437638001,006
WaverleyFarnham Shortheath and Boundstone20151,8703370001,739
WaverleyFarnham Upper Hale20151,6513280001,880
WaverleyFarnham Weybourne and Badshot Lea20151,94945381674100
WaverleyFarnham Wrecclesham and Rowledge20152,71055505170688
WaverleyFrensham, Dockenfield and Tilford2015-200000
WaverleyGodalming Binscombe20151,897677730000
WaverleyGodalming Central and Ockford20152,20474304370485
WaverleyGodalming Charterhouse20152,327549007080
WaverleyGodalming Farncombe and Catteshall20152,1829131,05705180
WaverleyGodalming Holloway20153,5327700000
WaverleyHaslemere Critchmere and Shottermill20154,5835632,631000
WaverleyHaslemere East and Grayswood20155,83660587954301,128
WaverleyHindhead20152,796069808010
WaverleyMilford20152,281005210808
WaverleyWitley and Hambledon20152,61838603740515

Surrey South WestTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
WaverleyBramley, Busbridge and Hascombe3,4792,36436400002,728
WaverleyChiddingfold and Dunsfold2,9751,7692960269002,334
WaverleyElstead and Thursley2,8711,75200004992,251
WaverleyFarnham Bourne3,0892,423000002,423
WaverleyFarnham Castle3,136968295495007022,460
WaverleyFarnham Firgrove3,2681,382268451046202,563
WaverleyFarnham Hale and Heath End3,3221,428343358004762,605
WaverleyFarnham Moor Park3,7551,445315460007252,945
WaverleyFarnham Shortheath and Boundstone3,1251,1622090001,0802,451
WaverleyFarnham Upper Hale3,1801,0672120001,2152,494
WaverleyFarnham Weybourne and Badshot Lea3,2101,239288519471002,517
WaverleyFarnham Wrecclesham and Rowledge3,4741,652338031504192,724
WaverleyFrensham, Dockenfield and Tilford3,0262,373000002,373
WaverleyGodalming Binscombe3,0571,3774915300002,398
WaverleyGodalming Central and Ockford3,5131,570529031103452,755
WaverleyGodalming Charterhouse3,0421,5493650047102,385
WaverleyGodalming Farncombe and Catteshall3,4191,253524607029702,681
WaverleyGodalming Holloway3,2192,07345200002,525
WaverleyHaslemere Critchmere and Shottermill4,4602,0612531,1830003,497
WaverleyHaslemere East and Grayswood4,9302,51026037823404853,867
WaverleyHindhead3,1811,6240405046502,494
WaverleyMilford3,1171,5450035305472,445
WaverleyWitley and Hambledon3,2021,689249024103322,511
 Total77,05038,2756,0515,3862,1941,6956,82560,426

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Surrey South WestEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
WaverleyBramley, Busbridge and Hascombe3,5241,9263111072603592,729
WaverleyChiddingfold and Dunsfold3,0131,5123046810003502,334
WaverleyElstead and Thursley2,9081,4461021183205532,251
WaverleyFarnham Bourne3,1291,863106107803402,424
WaverleyFarnham Castle3,1761,063394355306452,460
WaverleyFarnham Firgrove3,3101,248455378504772,563
WaverleyFarnham Hale and Heath End3,3651,3583542992505692,605
WaverleyFarnham Moor Park3,8031,5053743231407282,944
WaverleyFarnham Shortheath and Boundstone3,1651,1982751033108442,451
WaverleyFarnham Upper Hale3,2211,1032871633509052,493
WaverleyFarnham Weybourne and Badshot Lea3,2511,20634641416503842,515
WaverleyFarnham Wrecclesham and Rowledge3,5191,5663241418506082,724
WaverleyFrensham, Dockenfield and Tilford3,0651,79914387903362,374
WaverleyGodalming Binscombe3,0961,1345053946603002,399
WaverleyGodalming Central and Ockford3,5581,3086171499505862,755
WaverleyGodalming Charterhouse3,0811,322395185104812,384
WaverleyGodalming Farncombe and Catteshall3,4631,1995295002104322,681
WaverleyGodalming Holloway3,2601,633353214003242,524
WaverleyHaslemere Critchmere and Shottermill4,5171,7874118323704303,497
WaverleyHaslemere East and Grayswood4,9932,29134233510807913,867
WaverleyHindhead3,2221,4271883832404732,495
WaverleyMilford3,1571,28822618410306442,445
WaverleyWitley and Hambledon3,2431,5012631278705322,510
 Total77,05033,6837,6045,9661,080012,09160,426

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Surrey South West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Surrey South West.

Surrey South WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
WaverleyBramley, Busbridge and Hascombe3,5241,82432210790143722,729
WaverleyChiddingfold and Dunsfold3,0131,42531368155123612,334
WaverleyElstead and Thursley2,9081,36211111885125632,251
WaverleyFarnham Bourne3,1291,77311510765123512,423
WaverleyFarnham Castle3,17697140435561136562,460
WaverleyFarnham Firgrove3,3101,15246537865134892,562
WaverleyFarnham Hale and Heath End3,3651,26136429986135812,604
WaverleyFarnham Moor Park3,8031,39538532383157422,943
WaverleyFarnham Shortheath and Boundstone3,1651,10728410389138552,451
WaverleyFarnham Upper Hale3,2211,01029716394139172,494
WaverleyFarnham Weybourne and Badshot Lea3,2511,112356414224133962,515
WaverleyFarnham Wrecclesham and Rowledge3,5191,464335141149146212,724
WaverleyFrensham, Dockenfield and Tilford3,0651,7101528765123472,373
WaverleyGodalming Binscombe3,0961,044514394123123112,398
WaverleyGodalming Central and Ockford3,5581,205628149160145992,755
WaverleyGodalming Charterhouse3,0811,23340418557124922,383
WaverleyGodalming Farncombe and Catteshall3,4631,09953950084144442,680
WaverleyGodalming Holloway3,2601,53936321460133362,525
WaverleyHaslemere Critchmere and Shottermill4,5171,657425832119184463,497
WaverleyHaslemere East and Grayswood4,9932,147357335199208093,867
WaverleyHindhead3,2221,33419838383134852,496
WaverleyMilford3,1571,197235184161136552,445
WaverleyWitley and Hambledon3,2431,407273127146135442,510
 Total77,05031,4287,8395,9662,50331112,37260,419

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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