Sussex Mid: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Sussex Mid: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Nicholas Soames  (CON)
County/Area: West Sussex (South East)
Electorate: 83,747
Turnout: 73.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,08256.9%53.2%
LAB15,40925.0%25.4%
LIB7,85512.7%12.8%
Green1,5712.5%3.1%
UKIP1,2512.0%4.4%
OTH4640.8%1.2%
CON Majority19,67331.9%Pred Maj 27.8%
Chance of
winning
CON
89%
LAB
10%
LIB
1%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Sussex Mid : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Sussex Mid constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position6° Right4° Right
National Position3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %47%52%52%
British Identity30%29%29%
Good Health52%49%48%
UK Born90%88%88%
Good Education47%43%39%
Good Job60%56%51%
High SEC66%57%51%
Average Age50.249.248.5
ABC1 Class67%60%53%

Sussex Mid ranks #456 for "Leave", #210 for "Right" and #373 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Sussex Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Sussex Mid: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Sussex Mid

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Sussex Mid at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Sussex Mid. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Sussex MidActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Mid SussexAshurst Wood20151,102210002190
Mid SussexBolney2015859046732000
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Dunstall20152,7577017204632670
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Franklands20152,6143941,3085125230
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Leylands20152,3904591,12303440
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Meeds20151,7898971,41043200
Mid SussexBurgess Hill St Andrews20151,9965661,1364652970
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Victoria20152,1765619244924330
Mid SussexCuckfield20153,34049477906340
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Ashplats20153,14752406424350
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Baldwins20152,905005976060
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Herontye20153,275005987310
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Imberhorne20153,295581053100
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Town20152,0824034904956030
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Ashenground20152,0991,1219777132730
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Bentswood20152,1971,6354298563340
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Franklands20152,66659863353300
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Heath20152,94579085244900
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Lucastes20153,1355411,25943700
Mid SussexHigh Weald20153,254006129750
Mid SussexLindfield20157,7007441,21501,8030

Sussex MidTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid SussexAshurst Wood2,1331,1902270023601,653
Mid SussexBolney2,1428660471323001,660
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Dunstall3,9361,71443644828816603,052
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Franklands3,7051,40321170227528102,872
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Leylands3,6391,562300734022502,821
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Meeds3,5271,080542851261002,734
Mid SussexBurgess Hill St Andrews3,4621,20134168328017902,684
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Victoria4,3321,59341167636031703,357
Mid SussexCuckfield3,9551,951289455037003,065
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Ashplats4,2322,174362044430103,281
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Baldwins3,9832,1830044945503,087
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Herontye3,6922,0350037245402,861
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Imberhorne3,2941,9093370308002,554
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Town3,8941,54329936336744703,019
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Ashenground4,1761,31170061044517003,236
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Bentswood4,2841,33899626152120303,319
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Franklands3,6051,681377399336002,793
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Heath4,1301,872502542285003,201
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Lucastes4,1911,896327761264003,248
Mid SussexHigh Weald3,9702,0680038962003,077
Mid SussexLindfield5,2392,728264430063904,061
 Total79,52135,2986,9218,3865,9675,063061,635

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Sussex MidEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid SussexAshurst Wood2,2461,133332992454111,653
Mid SussexBolney2,2561,0113182683416121,659
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Dunstall4,1451,7557474186445233,052
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Franklands3,9021,6835574856958202,872
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Leylands3,8321,4776765306364112,821
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Meeds3,7141,1828535548940152,733
Mid SussexBurgess Hill St Andrews3,6461,2587565098062182,683
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Victoria4,5621,5621,0475608578253,357
Mid SussexCuckfield4,1651,9566393289111233,066
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Ashplats4,4572,04380818813776293,281
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Baldwins4,1951,97463624096110303,086
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Herontye3,8881,95954516554106322,861
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Imberhorne3,4691,8255121175134132,552
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Town4,1011,63477538569129273,019
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Ashenground4,3981,4451,1085276066303,236
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Bentswood4,5121,4081,34135710186283,321
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Franklands3,7971,6416464124136192,795
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Heath4,3491,7728534743353153,200
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Lucastes4,4141,8866915973227153,248
Mid SussexHigh Weald4,1811,93772117351156393,077
Mid SussexLindfield5,5172,5418494697164304,060
 Total79,52135,08215,4107,8551,2491,57146561,635

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Sussex Mid

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Sussex Mid.

Sussex MidPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid SussexAshurst Wood2,2461,071338996363191,653
Mid SussexBolney2,2569493242687325201,659
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Dunstall4,1451,64175941813661373,052
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Franklands3,9021,57656848513773332,872
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Leylands3,8321,37268753013079242,822
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Meeds3,7141,08086455415354282,733
Mid SussexBurgess Hill St Andrews3,6461,15876650914376302,682
Mid SussexBurgess Hill Victoria4,5621,4371,06056016495413,357
Mid SussexCuckfield4,1651,84265132881127373,066
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Ashplats4,4571,92182118821493443,281
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Baldwins4,1951,859648240169126443,086
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Herontye3,8881,852556165121121452,860
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Imberhorne3,4691,73052211711147252,552
Mid SussexEast Grinstead Town4,1011,521787385140145413,019
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Ashenground4,3981,3241,12152713683453,236
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Bentswood4,5121,2841,354357179103433,320
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Franklands3,7971,53765741210750322,795
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Heath4,3491,65386547410869303,199
Mid SussexHaywards Heath Lucastes4,4141,76570459710944303,249
Mid SussexHigh Weald4,1811,822733173124172533,077
Mid SussexLindfield5,5172,390865469103185494,061
 Total79,52132,78415,6507,8552,7011,89175061,631

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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