Tatton: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Tatton: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Esther McVey  (CON)
County/Area: Cheshire (North West)
Electorate: 67,874
Turnout: 72.4%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON28,76458.6%54.6%
LAB13,97728.5%28.9%
LIB4,4319.0%9.0%
Green1,0242.1%2.6%
OTH9201.9%2.4%
UKIP00.0%2.5%
CON Majority14,78730.1%Pred Maj 25.7%
Chance of
winning
CON
85%
LAB
15%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
UKIP
0%

Tatton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Tatton constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position10° Right6° Left
National Position3° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %46%54%52%
British Identity31%28%29%
Good Health51%46%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education49%37%39%
Good Job64%49%51%
High SEC66%48%51%
Average Age52.048.648.5
ABC1 Class68%50%53%

Tatton ranks #482 for "Leave", #108 for "Right" and #311 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Tatton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Tatton: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Tatton

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Tatton at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Tatton. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

TattonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Cheshire EastAlderley Edge201595800001,500
Cheshire EastChelford20151,827036202110
Cheshire EastHandforth20152,7601,6190003,623
Cheshire EastHigh Legh20151,6630007120
Cheshire EastKnutsford201510,1762,1930002,383
Cheshire EastMobberley20151,608066200115
Cheshire EastWilmslow Dean Row20151,13900001,189
Cheshire EastWilmslow East20151,0930001491,001
Cheshire EastWilmslow Lacey Green20151,3458430000
Cheshire EastWilmslow West and Chorley20156,1771,58200990930
Cheshire West and ChesterMarbury20159,1035,0651,19308260
Cheshire West and ChesterShakerley20151,414597200000
Cheshire West and ChesterWitton and Rudheath20152,1463,366365000

TattonTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire EastAlderley Edge3,6481,08200001,6952,777
Cheshire EastChelford3,0861,7890354020702,350
Cheshire EastHandforth6,9431,8231,0690002,3935,285
Cheshire EastHigh Legh3,3271,77400075902,533
Cheshire EastKnutsford10,0885,2981,1420001,2417,681
Cheshire EastMobberley3,4881,7900737001282,655
Cheshire EastWilmslow Dean Row3,4071,26900001,3252,594
Cheshire EastWilmslow East3,1071,1530001571,0562,366
Cheshire EastWilmslow Lacey Green3,7681,7631,10500002,868
Cheshire EastWilmslow West and Chorley7,5063,647934005855495,715
Cheshire West and ChesterMarbury9,2373,9552,201518035907,033
Cheshire West and ChesterShakerley3,1951,5566572200002,433
Cheshire West and ChesterWitton and Rudheath3,7121,0321,6191760002,827
 Total64,51227,9318,7272,00502,0678,38749,117

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

TattonEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire EastAlderley Edge3,8381,5677463370151142,779
Cheshire EastChelford3,2471,744239287062192,351
Cheshire EastHandforth7,3052,1602,2416360691805,286
Cheshire EastHigh Legh3,5001,8283561290200202,533
Cheshire EastKnutsford10,6144,9141,85065401311327,681
Cheshire EastMobberley3,6701,759390462014302,655
Cheshire EastWilmslow Dean Row3,5851,469739257029992,593
Cheshire EastWilmslow East3,2691,508479255045792,366
Cheshire EastWilmslow Lacey Green3,9641,6741,07563027292,868
Cheshire EastWilmslow West and Chorley7,8973,6581,3154380223825,716
Cheshire West and ChesterMarbury9,7183,9292,3035650162747,033
Cheshire West and ChesterShakerley3,3621,493713175025282,434
Cheshire West and ChesterWitton and Rudheath3,9051,0611,532175022362,826
 Total64,51228,76413,9784,43301,02492249,117

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Tatton

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Tatton.

TattonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire EastAlderley Edge3,8381,45775733770301282,779
Cheshire EastChelford3,2471,6512492875975312,352
Cheshire EastHandforth7,3051,9502,263636133982065,286
Cheshire EastHigh Legh3,5001,72736612964214322,532
Cheshire EastKnutsford10,6144,6091,8826551931731707,682
Cheshire EastMobberley3,6701,6544014626729432,656
Cheshire EastWilmslow Dean Row3,5851,36675025765431122,593
Cheshire EastWilmslow East3,2691,4144892555958912,366
Cheshire EastWilmslow Lacey Green3,9641,5601,087637243432,868
Cheshire EastWilmslow West and Chorley7,8973,4311,3384381432541105,714
Cheshire West and ChesterMarbury9,7183,6502,3325661762011097,034
Cheshire West and ChesterShakerley3,3621,3967231756138402,433
Cheshire West and ChesterWitton and Rudheath3,9059491,5441757137502,826
 Total64,51226,81414,1814,4351,2331,2931,16549,121

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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