Taunton Deane: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Taunton Deane: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Rebecca Pow  (CON)
County/Area: Somerset (South West)
Electorate: 85,466
Turnout: 73.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,33352.9%49.1%
LIB17,44627.7%27.7%
LAB9,68915.4%15.8%
UKIP1,4342.3%4.6%
Green1,1511.8%2.3%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority15,88725.2%Pred Maj 21.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
84%
LIB
12%
LAB
5%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Taunton Deane : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Taunton Deane constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position3° Right1° Right
National Position2° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%53%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born93%92%88%
Good Education40%40%39%
Good Job51%50%51%
High SEC54%52%51%
Average Age51.150.548.5
ABC1 Class53%54%53%

Taunton Deane ranks #339 for "Leave", #268 for "Right" and #341 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Taunton Deane: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Taunton Deane: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Taunton Deane

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Taunton Deane at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Taunton Deane. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Taunton DeaneActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Taunton DeaneBishop's Hull20151,13730084302641,177
Taunton DeaneBishop's Lydeard20154,51002,0947668350
Taunton DeaneBlackdown201574402990152211
Taunton DeaneBradford-on-Tone2015859043201980
Taunton DeaneComeytrowe20153,0033954,49904840
Taunton DeaneMilverton and North Deane2015780026702680
Taunton DeaneMonument2015775025701900
Taunton DeaneNeroche20159379224701300
Taunton DeaneNorth Curry and Stoke St Gregory20151,57301,74702040
Taunton DeaneNorton Fitzwarren20151,283075702670
Taunton DeaneRuishton and Creech20152,0462621,80502860
Taunton DeaneStaplegrove20152,0112801,38403370
Taunton DeaneTaunton Blackbrook and Holway20152,3125742,9050598542
Taunton DeaneTaunton Eastgate20159763601,27903710
Taunton DeaneTaunton Fairwater20152,5911,2653,13605820
Taunton DeaneTaunton Halcon20151,74202,90206050
Taunton DeaneTaunton Killams and Mountfield20152,1752791,16103250
Taunton DeaneTaunton Lyngford20151,7231,4911,520583332588
Taunton DeaneTaunton Manor and Wilton20154,11703,52306410
Taunton DeaneTaunton Pyrland and Rowbarton20152,4711,4702,24104540
Taunton DeaneTrull201579312326601120
Taunton DeaneWellington East20151,7212821,49002580
Taunton DeaneWellington North20151,1451,37837003440
Taunton DeaneWellington Rockwell Green and West20154,3107172,17206640
Taunton DeaneWest Monkton20153,30701,3470692804
Taunton DeaneWiveliscombe and West Deane2015893066503462,081

Taunton DeaneTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Taunton DeaneBishop's Hull2,93969218351301617162,265
Taunton DeaneBishop's Lydeard4,7252,001092934037103,641
Taunton DeaneBlackdown1,550632025401291791,194
Taunton DeaneBradford-on-Tone1,7297690387017701,333
Taunton DeaneComeytrowe4,2761,1811551,769019003,295
Taunton DeaneMilverton and North Deane1,6307450255025601,256
Taunton DeaneMonument1,5307480248018301,179
Taunton DeaneNeroche1,59581980216011401,229
Taunton DeaneNorth Curry and Stoke St Gregory2,3908220913010701,842
Taunton DeaneNorton Fitzwarren2,2569670570020101,738
Taunton DeaneRuishton and Creech2,9721,065136940014902,290
Taunton DeaneStaplegrove2,9541,141159785019102,276
Taunton DeaneTaunton Blackbrook and Holway4,7221,2143011,52503142853,639
Taunton DeaneTaunton Eastgate3,4758753231,147033302,678
Taunton DeaneTaunton Fairwater4,7001,2396051,500027803,622
Taunton DeaneTaunton Halcon4,8811,24802,079043303,760
Taunton DeaneTaunton Killams and Mountfield2,8621,217156650018202,205
Taunton DeaneTaunton Lyngford4,0268577427562901652923,102
Taunton DeaneTaunton Manor and Wilton3,8961,49301,277023203,002
Taunton DeaneTaunton Pyrland and Rowbarton4,7191,3548051,228024903,636
Taunton DeaneTrull1,558736114247010401,201
Taunton DeaneWellington East2,788986162853014802,149
Taunton DeaneWellington North2,917795957257023902,248
Taunton DeaneWellington Rockwell Green and West4,6541,966327991030303,587
Taunton DeaneWest Monkton3,1931,323053902773222,461
Taunton DeaneWiveliscombe and West Deane2,892499037201931,1642,228
 Total81,82927,3845,20521,2006305,6792,95863,056

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Taunton DeaneEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Taunton DeaneBishop's Hull3,0701,175451546672502,264
Taunton DeaneBishop's Lydeard4,9352,1862948882254903,642
Taunton DeaneBlackdown1,619783100256183701,194
Taunton DeaneBradford-on-Tone1,80689992293113801,333
Taunton DeaneComeytrowe4,4661,5963811,254333203,296
Taunton DeaneMilverton and North Deane1,702812102268106401,256
Taunton DeaneMonument1,59884969225102501,178
Taunton DeaneNeroche1,66686912221661601,229
Taunton DeaneNorth Curry and Stoke St Gregory2,4961,131101557213201,842
Taunton DeaneNorton Fitzwarren2,356949206474812901,739
Taunton DeaneRuishton and Creech3,1041,329230679272502,290
Taunton DeaneStaplegrove3,0851,289252672174602,276
Taunton DeaneTaunton Blackbrook and Holway4,9321,5838251,113754403,640
Taunton DeaneTaunton Eastgate3,6291,128570869288302,678
Taunton DeaneTaunton Fairwater4,9091,5857081,1943010303,620
Taunton DeaneTaunton Halcon5,0981,6475841,379896303,762
Taunton DeaneTaunton Killams and Mountfield2,9891,282306573153002,206
Taunton DeaneTaunton Lyngford4,2051,2248757362353203,102
Taunton DeaneTaunton Manor and Wilton4,0691,6792581,007243403,002
Taunton DeaneTaunton Pyrland and Rowbarton4,9291,5908511,0351194203,637
Taunton DeaneTrull1,62778611927381501,201
Taunton DeaneWellington East2,9121,105302655384802,148
Taunton DeaneWellington North3,047947775413615102,247
Taunton DeaneWellington Rockwell Green and West4,8612,133454878596303,587
Taunton DeaneWest Monkton3,3351,554287527563702,461
Taunton DeaneWiveliscombe and West Deane3,0211,223377467748702,228
 Total81,82933,3339,69117,4471,4371,150063,056

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Taunton Deane

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Taunton Deane.

Taunton DeanePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Taunton DeaneBishop's Hull3,0701,09046054612137112,265
Taunton DeaneBishop's Lydeard4,9352,04930888831168173,641
Taunton DeaneBlackdown1,619738105256464361,194
Taunton DeaneBradford-on-Tone1,80684997293434561,333
Taunton DeaneComeytrowe4,4661,4723941,25411149153,295
Taunton DeaneMilverton and North Deane1,702765107268407161,257
Taunton DeaneMonument1,59880574225383151,178
Taunton DeaneNeroche1,666823127216352261,229
Taunton DeaneNorth Curry and Stoke St Gregory2,4961,062108557654291,843
Taunton DeaneNorton Fitzwarren2,3568842134741223881,739
Taunton DeaneRuishton and Creech3,1041,2432396798137112,290
Taunton DeaneStaplegrove3,0851,2042616727158112,277
Taunton DeaneTaunton Blackbrook and Holway4,9321,4468391,11316163173,639
Taunton DeaneTaunton Eastgate3,6291,0275808699297122,677
Taunton DeaneTaunton Fairwater4,9091,4497221,194116122173,620
Taunton DeaneTaunton Halcon5,0981,5065991,37917883183,763
Taunton DeaneTaunton Killams and Mountfield2,9891,1993155736741102,205
Taunton DeaneTaunton Lyngford4,2051,10888773630948143,102
Taunton DeaneTaunton Manor and Wilton4,0691,5662701,0079550143,002
Taunton DeaneTaunton Pyrland and Rowbarton4,9291,4538651,03520561173,636
Taunton DeaneTrull1,627741124273372161,202
Taunton DeaneWellington East2,9121,0243106558959102,147
Taunton DeaneWellington North3,04786378441311463102,247
Taunton DeaneWellington Rockwell Green and West4,8611,99846887814482173,587
Taunton DeaneWest Monkton3,3351,46229752711450112,461
Taunton DeaneWiveliscombe and West Deane3,0211,13938646712799102,228
 Total81,82930,9659,93917,4472,9321,48029463,057

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)