Tewkesbury: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Tewkesbury: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Laurence Robertson  (CON)
County/Area: Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate: 81,442
Turnout: 72.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,44860.0%56.2%
LAB12,87421.8%22.2%
LIB7,98113.5%13.5%
Green1,5762.7%3.2%
UKIP1,2052.0%4.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority22,57438.2%Pred Maj 34.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
94%
LAB
5%
LIB
1%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Tewkesbury : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Tewkesbury constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right1° Right
National Position3° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%53%52%
British Identity29%27%29%
Good Health48%47%48%
UK Born93%92%88%
Good Education42%40%39%
Good Job56%50%51%
High SEC59%52%51%
Average Age51.250.548.5
ABC1 Class60%54%53%

Tewkesbury ranks #341 for "Leave", #220 for "Right" and #318 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Tewkesbury: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Tewkesbury: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Tewkesbury

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Tewkesbury at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Tewkesbury. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

TewkesburyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
CheltenhamPrestbury20143060165001,524
CheltenhamSwindon Village20144240835000
GloucesterLonglevens20152,8709555488152620
TewkesburyAshchurch with Walton Cardiff20151,91567243864600
TewkesburyBadgeworth20159380612000
TewkesburyBrockworth20155,1592,70672407300
TewkesburyChurchdown Brookfield20151,8256501,06700998
TewkesburyChurchdown St John's20153,5016974,430000
TewkesburyCleeve Grange20155230542000
TewkesburyCleeve Hill2015-200000
TewkesburyCleeve St Michael's20152,3846911,04000236
TewkesburyCleeve West20152,31701,835000
TewkesburyCoombe Hill20152,9660899000
TewkesburyHucclecote20157260469000
TewkesburyInnsworth with Down Hatherley20154560425232036
TewkesburyIsbourne2015-100000
TewkesburyNorthway20151,73305041,19100
TewkesburyOxenton Hill2015-100000
TewkesburyShurdington20157440341000
TewkesburyTewkesbury Newtown20158600031300
TewkesburyTewkesbury Prior's Park20151,27603603850994
TewkesburyTewkesbury Town with Mitton20151,2290048102,619
TewkesburyTwyning2015548003881930
TewkesburyWinchcombe20156,0852,03987256500

TewkesburyTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CheltenhamPrestbury4,0694700253002,3403,063
CheltenhamSwindon Village4,5661,15702,2790003,436
GloucesterLonglevens7,6343,0261,00757885927605,746
TewkesburyAshchurch with Walton Cardiff3,6251,423499326480002,728
TewkesburyBadgeworth1,69277105030001,274
TewkesburyBrockworth5,7192,3831,250334033704,304
TewkesburyChurchdown Brookfield3,302999356584005462,485
TewkesburyChurchdown St John's5,5061,6823352,1280004,145
TewkesburyCleeve Grange1,62159906210001,220
TewkesburyCleeve Hill3,3002,484000002,484
TewkesburyCleeve St Michael's3,4971,442418629001432,632
TewkesburyCleeve West3,4881,46501,1600002,625
TewkesburyCoombe Hill3,6132,08706330002,720
TewkesburyHucclecote1,2155560359000915
TewkesburyInnsworth with Down Hatherley2,31269106443510551,741
TewkesburyIsbourne1,5711,182000001,182
TewkesburyNorthway4,0661,54704501,063003,060
TewkesburyOxenton Hill1,28496600000966
TewkesburyShurdington1,54279603650001,161
TewkesburyTewkesbury Newtown1,57586900316001,185
TewkesburyTewkesbury Prior's Park3,2941,049029631708172,479
TewkesburyTewkesbury Town with Mitton3,6217740030301,6492,726
TewkesburyTwyning1,327485003431710999
TewkesburyWinchcombe5,0612,424812347225003,808
 Total78,50031,3274,67712,4894,2577845,55059,084

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

TewkesburyEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CheltenhamPrestbury4,2211,6121,045299210403,062
CheltenhamSwindon Village4,7371,449925963178203,436
GloucesterLonglevens7,9203,2571,55855218719205,746
TewkesburyAshchurch with Walton Cardiff3,7611,739567273896002,728
TewkesburyBadgeworth1,75587416020942501,272
TewkesburyBrockworth5,9332,3921,2393699121204,303
TewkesburyChurchdown Brookfield3,4261,40169034035202,486
TewkesburyChurchdown St John's5,7122,1221,010905228404,143
TewkesburyCleeve Grange1,68272218628372201,220
TewkesburyCleeve Hill3,4242,15115615512102,484
TewkesburyCleeve St Michael's3,6281,48368240675402,632
TewkesburyCleeve West3,6191,61639657043902,625
TewkesburyCoombe Hill3,7481,974319347344602,720
TewkesburyHucclecote1,2616151041742200915
TewkesburyInnsworth with Down Hatherley2,3991,035279315862501,740
TewkesburyIsbourne1,6301,04190450601,182
TewkesburyNorthway4,2181,7176593682447203,060
TewkesburyOxenton Hill1,33282553740120964
TewkesburyShurdington1,600736179214171401,160
TewkesburyTewkesbury Newtown1,63482718774682901,185
TewkesburyTewkesbury Prior's Park3,4171,4076372501147102,479
TewkesburyTewkesbury Town with Mitton3,7571,4358622009413502,726
TewkesburyTwyning1,37758617179541090999
TewkesburyWinchcombe5,2512,429720515568803,808
 Total78,50035,44512,8747,9791,2031,574059,084

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Tewkesbury

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Tewkesbury.

TewkesburyPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CheltenhamPrestbury4,2211,4971,05729975120143,062
CheltenhamSwindon Village4,7371,32093896399100163,436
GloucesterLonglevens7,9203,0411,580552323222275,745
TewkesburyAshchurch with Walton Cardiff3,7611,63757827315474132,729
TewkesburyBadgeworth1,755826165209343261,272
TewkesburyBrockworth5,9332,2301,256369193234204,302
TewkesburyChurchdown Brookfield3,4261,3087003406265122,487
TewkesburyChurchdown St John's5,7121,9661,026905120105194,141
TewkesburyCleeve Grange1,682676191283362861,220
TewkesburyCleeve Hill3,4242,0581661556034122,485
TewkesburyCleeve St Michael's3,6281,3846924067068122,632
TewkesburyCleeve West3,6191,5174065706653122,624
TewkesburyCoombe Hill3,7481,8723303479960132,721
TewkesburyHucclecote1,26158110817424254916
TewkesburyInnsworth with Down Hatherley2,3999702863151273481,740
TewkesburyIsbourne1,6309979545281261,183
TewkesburyNorthway4,2181,60267136831788143,060
TewkesburyOxenton Hill1,332789577423174964
TewkesburyShurdington1,600692184214452051,160
TewkesburyTewkesbury Newtown1,63478219274963561,185
TewkesburyTewkesbury Prior's Park3,4171,31464725017384122,480
TewkesburyTewkesbury Town with Mitton3,7571,333873200159149132,727
TewkesburyTwyning1,37754817579781145999
TewkesburyWinchcombe5,2512,286735515146108183,808
 Total78,50033,22613,1087,9792,6071,88127759,078

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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