Thirsk and Malton: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Thirsk and Malton: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Kevin Hollinrake  (CON)
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 78,670
Turnout: 71.1%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,57260.0%56.9%
LAB14,57126.1%25.1%
LIB3,8596.9%7.0%
UKIP1,5322.7%6.1%
Green1,1002.0%3.2%
MIN7531.3%1.3%
OTH5421.0%0.4%
CON Majority19,00134.0%Pred Maj 31.8%
Chance of
winning
CON
92%
LAB
8%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
MIN
0%
OTH
0%

Thirsk and Malton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Thirsk and Malton constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatYorks/HumberAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position10° Right3° Left
National Position9° Nat6° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %57%58%52%
British Identity28%28%29%
Good Health46%46%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education39%36%39%
Good Job48%47%51%
High SEC51%46%51%
Average Age53.448.548.5
ABC1 Class50%49%53%

Thirsk and Malton ranks #241 for "Leave", #107 for "Right" and #142 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Thirsk and Malton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Thirsk and Malton: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Thirsk and Malton

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Thirsk and Malton at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Thirsk and Malton. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Thirsk and MaltonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
HambletonBagby and Thorntons2015-100000
HambletonEasingwold20157,3780001,4512,868
HambletonHuby2015-100000
HambletonMorton-on-Swale20151,5804240000
HambletonRaskelf and White Horse2015-100000
HambletonSowerby and Topcliffe20153,04200002,274
HambletonThirsk20153,36300001,787
RyedaleAmotherby20155700000485
RyedaleAmpleforth20156190003340
RyedaleCropton20154710000526
RyedaleDales20155340000281
RyedaleDerwent20151,827057400659
RyedaleHelmsley20151,814000407584
RyedaleHovingham20150000439599
RyedaleKirkbymoorside20151,52043600477654
RyedaleMalton20151,748841053202,522
RyedaleNorton East20151,06407604020309
RyedaleNorton West20151,22209563810522
RyedalePickering East2015739247169001,675
RyedalePickering West20158173140001,500
RyedaleRillington2015000220145492
RyedaleRyedale South West2015-100000
RyedaleSherburn2015464003401930
RyedaleSheriff Hutton20157260000337
RyedaleSinnington2015664106002890
RyedaleThornton Dale20152,144425005100
RyedaleWolds2015-100000
ScarboroughFiley20151,004003,1785871,554
ScarboroughHertford20152,530008907290

Thirsk and MaltonTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HambletonBagby and Thorntons2,4541,772000001,772
HambletonEasingwold7,8483,5750007031,3905,668
HambletonHuby2,7261,969000001,969
HambletonMorton-on-Swale532303810000384
HambletonRaskelf and White Horse2,7401,979000001,979
HambletonSowerby and Topcliffe5,2922,18700001,6353,822
HambletonThirsk5,3932,54300001,3513,894
RyedaleAmotherby1,61362900005351,164
RyedaleAmpleforth1,73081100043801,249
RyedaleCropton1,2264180000467885
RyedaleDales1,1455420000285827
RyedaleDerwent2,7711,1950375004312,001
RyedaleHelmsley2,4291,1340002553651,754
RyedaleHovingham1,3300000406554960
RyedaleKirkbymoorside2,737973279003054191,976
RyedaleMalton3,908874421026601,2612,822
RyedaleNorton East3,115944067435702742,249
RyedaleNorton West2,790799062524903412,014
RyedalePickering East2,588488163112001,1061,869
RyedalePickering West2,8836462480001,1872,081
RyedaleRillington1,380000256169572997
RyedaleRyedale South West1,34697200000972
RyedaleSherburn1,5925350039222301,150
RyedaleSheriff Hutton1,38568300003171,000
RyedaleSinnington1,35461398002670978
RyedaleThornton Dale2,6051,3102600031201,882
RyedaleWolds1,4411,041000001,041
ScarboroughFiley5,223599001,8963509273,772
ScarboroughHertford3,8741,7060060049202,798
 Total77,45031,2401,5501,7864,0163,92013,41755,929

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Thirsk and MaltonEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HambletonBagby and Thorntons2,4931,53417032316181,773
HambletonEasingwold7,9723,7921,313278231331295,668
HambletonHuby2,7691,70915460718221,970
HambletonMorton-on-Swale5402897611125384
HambletonRaskelf and White Horse2,7831,68417987114141,979
HambletonSowerby and Topcliffe5,3752,34099620881381593,822
HambletonThirsk5,4782,48195421593421103,895
RyedaleAmotherby1,6387263515211351,166
RyedaleAmpleforth1,757784196111014981,248
RyedaleCropton1,245581214445832884
RyedaleDales1,1635751813111624828
RyedaleDerwent2,8151,287397267411342,000
RyedaleHelmsley2,4671,160382129243371,753
RyedaleHovingham1,3513593959096839960
RyedaleKirkbymoorside2,7801,0805891552883411,976
RyedaleMalton3,9701,2301,2371419625922,821
RyedaleNorton East3,1641,0006654161226392,248
RyedaleNorton West2,8349065584346614362,014
RyedalePickering East2,6298316852233920721,870
RyedalePickering West2,928994792176368772,083
RyedaleRillington1,40236739596762637997
RyedaleRyedale South West1,36781011136367973
RyedaleSherburn1,6176003355310646111,151
RyedaleSheriff Hutton1,4077162064326271,000
RyedaleSinnington1,3756452015636012977
RyedaleThornton Dale2,6461,280408732861311,881
RyedaleWolds1,4648811301233121,041
ScarboroughFiley5,3051,3471,539216491781003,771
ScarboroughHertford3,9351,58676311420199342,797
 Total77,45033,57414,5723,8591,5311,1001,29455,929

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Thirsk and Malton

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Thirsk and Malton.

Thirsk and MaltonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
HambletonBagby and Thorntons2,4931,479161335134151,773
HambletonEasingwold7,9723,6171,254281217205945,668
HambletonHuby2,7691,648146616038171,970
HambletonMorton-on-Swale54027772111374384
HambletonRaskelf and White Horse2,7831,62317088553491,979
HambletonSowerby and Topcliffe5,3752,222956211222901213,822
HambletonThirsk5,4782,36191321723193793,894
RyedaleAmotherby1,638690339534216261,166
RyedaleAmpleforth1,7577451861123616361,248
RyedaleCropton1,24555420545372024885
RyedaleDales1,16354917232302718828
RyedaleDerwent2,8151,2253762686935261,999
RyedaleHelmsley2,4671,1063641306065291,754
RyedaleHovingham1,35132938591448130960
RyedaleKirkbymoorside2,7801,01956815695108301,976
RyedaleMalton3,9701,1431,20814319461722,821
RyedaleNorton East3,16493164241719734272,248
RyedaleNorton West2,83484453743513238282,014
RyedalePickering East2,62977366622410846531,870
RyedalePickering West2,92893077017711236582,083
RyedaleRillington1,402336385971124028998
RyedaleRyedale South West1,3677801053630165972
RyedaleSherburn1,617564323541436081,152
RyedaleSheriff Hutton1,407685196443619211,001
RyedaleSinnington1,37561519157347110978
RyedaleThornton Dale2,6461,222388748783261,880
RyedaleWolds1,46484912313331491,041
ScarboroughFiley5,3051,2311,500218620126763,771
ScarboroughHertford3,9351,500734116288132282,798
 Total77,45031,84714,0353,8943,3881,79297755,933

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (11-Sep-2017 15:41)