Tiverton and Honiton: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Tiverton and Honiton: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Neil Parish  (CON)
County/Area: Devon (South West)
Electorate: 80,731
Turnout: 71.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,47161.4%58.3%
LAB15,67027.1%26.0%
LIB4,6398.0%8.1%
Green2,0353.5%4.7%
UKIP00.0%2.9%
CON Majority19,80134.2%Pred Maj 32.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
93%
LAB
7%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Tiverton and Honiton : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Tiverton and Honiton constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right1° Right
National Position7° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health44%47%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education37%40%39%
Good Job45%50%51%
High SEC49%52%51%
Average Age53.950.548.5
ABC1 Class47%54%53%

Tiverton and Honiton ranks #220 for "Leave", #233 for "Right" and #226 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Tiverton and Honiton: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Tiverton and Honiton: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Tiverton and Honiton

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Tiverton and Honiton at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Tiverton and Honiton. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Tiverton and HonitonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
East DevonAxminster Rural20151,0654030000
East DevonAxminster Town20151,68501,26245001,117
East DevonBeer and Branscombe201500000-1
East DevonColy Valley20152,77800002,292
East DevonDunkeswell20155950000450
East DevonFeniton and Buckerell201528800001,048
East DevonHoniton St Michael's20154,094001,96901,413
East DevonHoniton St Paul's20151,82564101,0730558
East DevonNewbridges20151,0140661000
East DevonOtterhead20158170000554
East DevonSeaton20154,39702,6581,64501,561
East DevonTale Vale20159920000486
East DevonTrinity2015-100000
East DevonYarty201577601540168473
Mid DevonCanonsleigh20152,0190007030
Mid DevonCastle20151,611967544000
Mid DevonClare and Shuttern20152,2190000873
Mid DevonCranmore20152,7161,0360001,837
Mid DevonCullompton North20151,6920000988
Mid DevonCullompton Outer20155710000517
Mid DevonCullompton South20151,15500002,031
Mid DevonHalberton20157690003380
Mid DevonLower Culm2015-300000
Mid DevonLowman20153,0981,18400624992
Mid DevonUpper Culm20151,4010076801,066
Mid DevonWestexe20151,02379601,6133991,273

Tiverton and HonitonTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East DevonAxminster Rural2,0241,11342100001,534
East DevonAxminster Town3,5481,004075226806662,690
East DevonBeer and Branscombe1,425000001,0801,080
East DevonColy Valley3,5051,45600001,2012,657
East DevonDunkeswell1,56667600005111,187
East DevonFeniton and Buckerell1,76528800001,0501,338
East DevonHoniton St Michael's5,3152,206001,06107614,028
East DevonHoniton St Paul's3,6441,230432072303762,761
East DevonNewbridges1,82483705460001,383
East DevonOtterhead1,75779400005381,332
East DevonSeaton5,5301,79601,08667206384,192
East DevonTale Vale1,94899100004861,477
East DevonTrinity1,9311,464000001,464
East DevonYarty1,819681013501474151,378
Mid DevonCanonsleigh2,5301,42300049501,918
Mid DevonCastle3,2841,2857714340002,490
Mid DevonClare and Shuttern2,6431,43800005662,004
Mid DevonCranmore3,9341,4495530009802,982
Mid DevonCullompton North3,1451,50500008792,384
Mid DevonCullompton Outer1,61764300005821,225
Mid DevonCullompton South2,84978300001,3772,160
Mid DevonHalberton1,56382300036201,185
Mid DevonLower Culm4,6223,504000003,504
Mid DevonLowman5,2512,091799004216693,980
Mid DevonUpper Culm3,1061,0200055907762,355
Mid DevonWestexe4,12562748809882447803,127
 Total76,27031,1273,4642,9534,2711,66914,33157,815

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Tiverton and HonitonEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East DevonAxminster Rural2,1421,0663588202801,534
East DevonAxminster Town3,7561,45958558705902,690
East DevonBeer and Branscombe1,50844847811404001,080
East DevonColy Valley3,7101,75761122106802,657
East DevonDunkeswell1,6588212756302801,187
East DevonFeniton and Buckerell1,86865152811604301,338
East DevonHoniton St Michael's5,6262,4801,15032507404,029
East DevonHoniton St Paul's3,8571,4921,05016705302,762
East DevonNewbridges1,93187114534202501,383
East DevonOtterhead1,8609642746003501,333
East DevonSeaton5,8532,42979090706704,193
East DevonTale Vale2,0621,0603296302501,477
East DevonTrinity2,0441,2461006605201,464
East DevonYarty1,925892228139011901,378
Mid DevonCanonsleigh2,6781,31327347028401,917
Mid DevonCastle3,4761,32778133105002,489
Mid DevonClare and Shuttern2,7981,4523979705702,003
Mid DevonCranmore4,1641,6771,11413405702,982
Mid DevonCullompton North3,3291,50473310504202,384
Mid DevonCullompton Outer1,7128083336002401,225
Mid DevonCullompton South3,0161,13385413903402,160
Mid DevonHalberton1,65482413910021201,185
Mid DevonLower Culm4,8922,8285536805503,504
Mid DevonLowman5,5582,2141,366133026703,980
Mid DevonUpper Culm3,2881,46672611105202,355
Mid DevonWestexe4,3661,2901,500152018403,126
 Total76,27035,47215,6704,63902,034057,815

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Tiverton and Honiton

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Tiverton and Honiton.

Tiverton and HonitonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
East DevonAxminster Rural2,1421,01934083464601,534
East DevonAxminster Town3,7561,377553588819002,689
East DevonBeer and Branscombe1,508415465115325301,080
East DevonColy Valley3,7101,676580222809902,657
East DevonDunkeswell1,65878526164364201,188
East DevonFeniton and Buckerell1,868610512117405901,338
East DevonHoniton St Michael's5,6262,3581,10332712112104,030
East DevonHoniton St Paul's3,8571,4081,017169838502,762
East DevonNewbridges1,931829136343363901,383
East DevonOtterhead1,86092425861405001,333
East DevonSeaton5,8532,30274390912411504,193
East DevonTale Vale2,0621,01531264444201,477
East DevonTrinity2,0441,2029467366601,465
East DevonYarty1,9258502151403913401,378
Mid DevonCanonsleigh2,6781,255257485330401,917
Mid DevonCastle3,4761,251752332757902,489
Mid DevonClare and Shuttern2,7981,39137498608002,003
Mid DevonCranmore4,1641,5861,079136899202,982
Mid DevonCullompton North3,3291,432705106717002,384
Mid DevonCullompton Outer1,71277131961373801,226
Mid DevonCullompton South3,0161,067829140655902,160
Mid DevonHalberton1,654788131113122401,185
Mid DevonLower Culm4,8922,72252070999303,504
Mid DevonLowman5,5582,0931,31913511931303,979
Mid DevonUpper Culm3,2881,395698112717902,355
Mid DevonWestexe4,3661,1951,4631549422003,126
 Total76,27033,71615,0354,6721,7022,692057,817

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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