Tonbridge and Malling: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Tonbridge and Malling: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Tom Tugendhat  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 77,234
Turnout: 73.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON36,21863.6%60.6%
LAB12,71022.3%21.3%
LIB3,7876.7%6.7%
Green2,3354.1%5.2%
UKIP1,8573.3%6.2%
CON Majority23,50841.3%Pred Maj 39.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
97%
LAB
3%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Tonbridge and Malling : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Tonbridge and Malling constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right4° Right
National Position6° Nat3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %54%52%52%
British Identity28%29%29%
Good Health51%49%48%
UK Born93%88%88%
Good Education42%43%39%
Good Job60%56%51%
High SEC62%57%51%
Average Age50.549.248.5
ABC1 Class63%60%53%

Tonbridge and Malling ranks #312 for "Leave", #144 for "Right" and #241 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Tonbridge and Malling: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Tonbridge and Malling: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Tonbridge and Malling

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Tonbridge and Malling at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Tonbridge and Malling. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Tonbridge and MallingActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
SevenoaksCowden and Hever20159190022500
SevenoaksEdenbridge North and East20153,026621006110
SevenoaksEdenbridge South and West20152,14771204262980
SevenoaksLeigh and Chiddingstone Causeway2015-100000
SevenoaksPenshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone2015790050101910
Tonbridge and MallingBorough Green and Long Mill20154,18151207384513,795
Tonbridge and MallingCage Green20153,002585005210
Tonbridge and MallingCastle20152,877075107870
Tonbridge and MallingDowns and Mereworth20153,086006355380
Tonbridge and MallingEast Malling20151,4374601,6654761540
Tonbridge and MallingHadlow and East Peckham20156,029001,1199210
Tonbridge and MallingHigham20152,905630004740
Tonbridge and MallingHildenborough20153,33905885895730
Tonbridge and MallingJudd20152,4336293308684840
Tonbridge and MallingKings Hill20156,61867308430747
Tonbridge and MallingMedway20154,2471,61506666430
Tonbridge and MallingTrench20152,1209482224682400
Tonbridge and MallingVauxhall20152,6741,05866505510
Tonbridge and MallingWateringbury2015877139001510
Tonbridge and MallingWest Malling and Leybourne20154,6003951,8617613351,263
Tonbridge and MallingWrotham, Ightham and Stansted20153,112004954470

Tonbridge and MallingTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
SevenoaksCowden and Hever1,56295400233001,187
SevenoaksEdenbridge North and East3,4901,8853870038102,653
SevenoaksEdenbridge South and West3,2461,478490029320502,466
SevenoaksLeigh and Chiddingstone Causeway1,6891,284000001,284
SevenoaksPenshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone1,8677560480018301,419
Tonbridge and MallingBorough Green and Long Mill5,2221,71521003031851,5563,969
Tonbridge and MallingCage Green3,4671,9263750033402,635
Tonbridge and MallingCastle3,7631,8640486051002,860
Tonbridge and MallingDowns and Mereworth3,1881,7560036130602,423
Tonbridge and MallingEast Malling3,8431,0013211,16033210702,921
Tonbridge and MallingHadlow and East Peckham5,4683,1050057647404,155
Tonbridge and MallingHigham3,6051,9854310032402,740
Tonbridge and MallingHildenborough3,7301,860032832831902,835
Tonbridge and MallingJudd3,9131,52539420754430302,973
Tonbridge and MallingKings Hill5,8733,326338042403754,463
Tonbridge and MallingMedway4,1131,851704029028003,125
Tonbridge and MallingTrench3,6431,46865715432416602,769
Tonbridge and MallingVauxhall3,8021,562618388032202,890
Tonbridge and MallingWateringbury1,5819031430015501,201
Tonbridge and MallingWest Malling and Leybourne4,4251,6791446792781224613,363
Tonbridge and MallingWrotham, Ightham and Stansted3,3861,9750031428402,573
 Total74,87635,8585,2123,8824,6004,9602,39256,904

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Tonbridge and MallingEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
SevenoaksCowden and Hever1,61184523030513101,187
SevenoaksEdenbridge North and East3,6001,8155191295313702,653
SevenoaksEdenbridge South and West3,3481,5196087614012402,467
SevenoaksLeigh and Chiddingstone Causeway1,7421,07013022333001,285
SevenoaksPenshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone1,92689218925777401,419
Tonbridge and MallingBorough Green and Long Mill5,3862,2701,30314210714603,968
Tonbridge and MallingCage Green3,5761,7475241647912102,635
Tonbridge and MallingCastle3,8821,7854563861621702,860
Tonbridge and MallingDowns and Mereworth3,2881,826356378411902,422
Tonbridge and MallingEast Malling3,9641,3337606191406902,921
Tonbridge and MallingHadlow and East Peckham5,6402,8857609522119404,155
Tonbridge and MallingHigham3,7191,8595741314513202,741
Tonbridge and MallingHildenborough3,8471,9044532618413202,834
Tonbridge and MallingJudd4,0361,48491429513714402,974
Tonbridge and MallingKings Hill6,0583,378864651134304,463
Tonbridge and MallingMedway4,2431,85091610410614903,125
Tonbridge and MallingTrench3,7581,4668791631887302,769
Tonbridge and MallingVauxhall3,9221,5248823043015102,891
Tonbridge and MallingWateringbury1,63187323913255201,202
Tonbridge and MallingWest Malling and Leybourne4,5641,9657574391188403,363
Tonbridge and MallingWrotham, Ightham and Stansted3,4931,928398547911402,573
 Total74,87636,21812,7113,7861,8562,336056,904

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Tonbridge and Malling

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Tonbridge and Malling.

Tonbridge and MallingPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
SevenoaksCowden and Hever1,61180921731864401,187
SevenoaksEdenbridge North and East3,6001,73548913013116702,652
SevenoaksEdenbridge South and West3,3481,4455807721315202,467
SevenoaksLeigh and Chiddingstone Causeway1,7421,03112323664301,286
SevenoaksPenshurst, Fordcombe and Chiddingstone1,926849178258458901,419
Tonbridge and MallingBorough Green and Long Mill5,3862,1501,25814422419103,967
Tonbridge and MallingCage Green3,5761,66849416515715102,635
Tonbridge and MallingCastle3,8821,6994303879624802,860
Tonbridge and MallingDowns and Mereworth3,2881,7533363815014502,422
Tonbridge and MallingEast Malling3,9641,24572762122610202,921
Tonbridge and MallingHadlow and East Peckham5,6402,7607179734124004,155
Tonbridge and MallingHigham3,7191,77654313212616302,740
Tonbridge and MallingHildenborough3,8471,81942726216316302,834
Tonbridge and MallingJudd4,0361,39488029722517802,974
Tonbridge and MallingKings Hill6,0583,243815672449404,463
Tonbridge and MallingMedway4,2431,75688010619818503,125
Tonbridge and MallingTrench3,7581,38384716427010502,769
Tonbridge and MallingVauxhall3,9221,43784930611618402,892
Tonbridge and MallingWateringbury1,63183722514616601,203
Tonbridge and MallingWest Malling and Leybourne4,5641,86471944121812303,365
Tonbridge and MallingWrotham, Ightham and Stansted3,4931,8503755515014202,572
 Total74,87634,50312,1093,8153,5062,975056,908

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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