Torfaen: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Torfaen: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Nick Thomas-Symonds  (LAB)
County/Area: Gwent (Wales)
Electorate: 61,839
Turnout: 62.1%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB22,13457.6%58.0%
CON11,89431.0%27.1%
Plaid2,0595.4%5.4%
UKIP1,4903.9%6.3%
LIB8522.2%2.2%
Green00.0%0.5%
OTH00.0%0.5%
LAB Majority10,24026.6%Pred Maj 30.9%
Chance of
winning
LAB
92%
CON
8%
Plaid
0%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Torfaen : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Torfaen constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position11° Left10° Left
National Position3° Nat3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %62%53%52%
British Identity24%26%29%
Good Health43%47%48%
UK Born97%95%88%
Good Education30%36%39%
Good Job42%46%51%
High SEC40%46%51%
Average Age49.349.648.5
ABC1 Class41%47%53%

Torfaen ranks #129 for "Leave", #529 for "Right" and #298 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Torfaen: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Torfaen: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Torfaen

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Torfaen at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Torfaen. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

TorfaenActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
TorfaenAbersychan201202,147001782521,583
TorfaenBlaenavon201201,8502910002,554
TorfaenBrynwern2012031900037187
TorfaenCoed Eva201246118000300135
TorfaenCwmyniscoy2012927400010225
TorfaenFairwater20120866000912598
TorfaenGreenmeadow201207890000767
TorfaenLlantarnam201249595100001,233
TorfaenNew Inn20123,1972,1340002190
TorfaenPanteg20124833,03924218404811,474
TorfaenPontnewydd20124042,309000419664
TorfaenPontnewynydd201201170009265
TorfaenPontypool2012021300071309
TorfaenSnatchwood2012034305100194
TorfaenSt Cadocs and Penygarn2012021600093202
TorfaenSt Dials201206220001561,078
TorfaenTrevethin20120722000137396
TorfaenTwo Locks20123472,2900002451,677
TorfaenUpper Cwmbran201201,7590002521,012
TorfaenWainfelin201201990000510

TorfaenTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
TorfaenAbersychan5,43501,742001442041,2843,374
TorfaenBlaenavon4,60101,1261770001,5542,857
TorfaenBrynwern1,400051100059299869
TorfaenCoed Eva1,786852180005552501,108
TorfaenCwmyniscoy1,0881235700013293675
TorfaenFairwater3,98809020009506232,475
TorfaenGreenmeadow3,159099500009671,962
TorfaenLlantarnam4,20448292700001,2012,610
TorfaenNew Inn4,5571,6301,08800011202,830
TorfaenPanteg5,5502821,77414110702818603,445
TorfaenPontnewydd4,8073181,8150003295222,984
TorfaenPontnewynydd1,131021000016476702
TorfaenPontypool1,3530302000101438841
TorfaenSnatchwood1,539055708300315955
TorfaenSt Cadocs and Penygarn1,1920313000135293741
TorfaenSt Dials2,75605730001449941,711
TorfaenTrevethin2,75909850001875411,713
TorfaenTwo Locks4,7572251,4840001591,0862,954
TorfaenUpper Cwmbran3,99901,4450002078312,483
TorfaenWainfelin1,835032000008201,140
 Total61,8963,03417,6443181901443,45213,64738,429

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

TorfaenEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
TorfaenAbersychan5,4308632,13947142018403,375
TorfaenBlaenavon4,5977921,72913314605802,858
TorfaenBrynwern1,39922852910420600869
TorfaenCoed Eva1,7844114412733019701,109
TorfaenCwmyniscoy1,08714846712150320674
TorfaenFairwater3,9847371,2643585035402,475
TorfaenGreenmeadow3,1566161,133619006201,962
TorfaenLlantarnam4,2001,0801,367477803802,610
TorfaenNew Inn4,5531,4321,277114007002,830
TorfaenPanteg5,5451,0521,932146138017803,446
TorfaenPontnewydd4,8037651,9095778017402,983
TorfaenPontnewynydd1,13021538614290600704
TorfaenPontypool1,35226844817370700840
TorfaenSnatchwood1,5381786537750420955
TorfaenSt Cadocs and Penygarn1,1911934537240630740
TorfaenSt Dials2,7535139495012007901,711
TorfaenTrevethin2,7563461,193324809501,714
TorfaenTwo Locks4,7531,0171,7093587010402,952
TorfaenUpper Cwmbran3,9956211,56659124011302,483
TorfaenWainfelin1,833418589455902701,138
 Total61,89611,89322,1338521,49002,060038,429

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Torfaen

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Torfaen.

TorfaenPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
TorfaenAbersychan5,4307342,1524722418184163,375
TorfaenBlaenavon4,5976821,7401332151558142,857
TorfaenBrynwern1,39919553210635604869
TorfaenCoed Eva1,7843684452760619751,108
TorfaenCwmyniscoy1,08712247012314323674
TorfaenFairwater3,9846421,2743514513354122,475
TorfaenGreenmeadow3,1565411,14161138106291,962
TorfaenLlantarnam4,2009801,377471411438122,609
TorfaenNew Inn4,5531,3231,288111091570132,829
TorfaenPanteg5,5459201,94614622218178163,446
TorfaenPontnewydd4,8036511,9215715016174142,983
TorfaenPontnewynydd1,13018838914464603704
TorfaenPontypool1,35223645117574704839
TorfaenSnatchwood1,5381446577975424956
TorfaenSt Cadocs and Penygarn1,1911654567424634741
TorfaenSt Dials2,7534479565016197981,710
TorfaenTrevethin2,7562801,200329099581,714
TorfaenTwo Locks4,7539041,7213515916104142,953
TorfaenUpper Cwmbran3,9955261,5765918413113122,483
TorfaenWainfelin1,833374594458762751,138
 Total61,89610,42222,2868522,4212042,06018038,425

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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