Truro and Falmouth: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Truro and Falmouth: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Sarah Newton  (CON)
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
Electorate: 74,691
Turnout: 75.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON25,12344.4%41.3%
LAB21,33137.7%36.6%
LIB8,46514.9%15.0%
UKIP8971.6%4.5%
Green8311.5%2.6%
CON Majority3,7926.7%Pred Maj 4.8%
Chance of
winning
CON
59%
LAB
39%
LIB
2%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Truro and Falmouth : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Truro and Falmouth constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position2° Left1° Right
National Position3° Int1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %48%53%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health49%47%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education47%40%39%
Good Job52%50%51%
High SEC52%52%51%
Average Age50.850.548.5
ABC1 Class56%54%53%

Truro and Falmouth ranks #454 for "Leave", #386 for "Right" and #449 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Truro and Falmouth: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Truro and Falmouth: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Truro and Falmouth

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Truro and Falmouth at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Truro and Falmouth. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Truro and FalmouthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day201301110234131791
CornwallChacewater, Kenwyn and Baldhu20135347701460264
CornwallFalmouth Arwenack2013624180102000
CornwallFalmouth Boslowick20132891922622370274
CornwallFalmouth Penwerris2013036101690466
CornwallFalmouth Smithick201313031615400345
CornwallFalmouth Trescobeas2013942853015443597
CornwallFeock and Playing Place201380113818300700
CornwallLadock, St Clement and St Erme20136668917102340
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias20134101293314130160
CornwallNewlyn and Goonhavern2013555118000529
CornwallPenryn East and Mylor20133431243202680419
CornwallPenryn West20130932611830399
CornwallPerranporth2013143610001,078
CornwallProbus, Tregony and Grampound20131384202830903
CornwallRoseland20132524201750976
CornwallSt Agnes2013398147613000
CornwallThreemilestone and Gloweth20131826914900558
CornwallTruro Boscawen20132261251270135680
CornwallTruro Redannick2013315109702087113
CornwallTruro Tregolls20131826821716929461
CornwallTruro Trehaverne2013565847417487279

Truro and FalmouthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day1,2770860182102614984
CornwallChacewater, Kenwyn and Baldhu3,1481,267183034606262,422
CornwallFalmouth Arwenack2,9281,5524482540002,254
CornwallFalmouth Boslowick3,76666844460654806332,899
CornwallFalmouth Penwerris3,73401,042048801,3452,875
CornwallFalmouth Smithick3,859409993484001,0842,970
CornwallFalmouth Trescobeas3,700223675713651021,4132,849
CornwallFeock and Playing Place3,8941,318227301001,1512,997
CornwallLadock, St Clement and St Erme3,5131,552207399054502,703
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias1,238271852192730106954
CornwallNewlyn and Goonhavern3,2541,1562460001,1022,504
CornwallPenryn East and Mylor4,23575827470859309273,260
CornwallPenryn West3,856029582858001,2652,968
CornwallPerranporth3,6723151340002,3762,825
CornwallProbus, Tregony and Grampound2,70621064043101,3772,082
CornwallRoseland2,78637462026001,4482,144
CornwallSt Agnes3,2078483131,3070002,468
CornwallThreemilestone and Gloweth3,355491186402001,5042,583
CornwallTruro Boscawen4,35358632432903501,7623,351
CornwallTruro Redannick3,6856742331,50101862422,836
CornwallTruro Tregolls3,739465174555432741,1782,878
CornwallTruro Trehaverne3,6961,2731891673921966282,845
 Total73,60114,4106,8848,1314,8901,55520,78156,651

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Truro and FalmouthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day1,2963784518639300984
CornwallChacewater, Kenwyn and Baldhu3,1951,43773416385302,422
CornwallFalmouth Arwenack2,9711,375581245213202,254
CornwallFalmouth Boslowick3,8221,2441,08350564302,899
CornwallFalmouth Penwerris3,7898221,649267964102,875
CornwallFalmouth Smithick3,9169341,517410010802,969
CornwallFalmouth Trescobeas3,7551,0131,480261643102,849
CornwallFeock and Playing Place3,9521,809837313251402,998
CornwallLadock, St Clement and St Erme3,5651,5116303941115802,704
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias1,2564243271693020952
CornwallNewlyn and Goonhavern3,3021,481807167391002,504
CornwallPenryn East and Mylor4,2981,5261,085544594503,259
CornwallPenryn West3,9139161,2796331063302,967
CornwallPerranporth3,7261,2601,225280302902,824
CornwallProbus, Tregony and Grampound2,74693588621447102,083
CornwallRoseland2,8271,11875323734302,145
CornwallSt Agnes3,25497758787033102,468
CornwallThreemilestone and Gloweth3,4051,0481,04545433202,582
CornwallTruro Boscawen4,4171,3771,427431611003,351
CornwallTruro Redannick3,74096482599305302,835
CornwallTruro Tregolls3,7941,1521,138501602702,878
CornwallTruro Trehaverne3,7511,422984326476602,845
 Total73,60125,12321,3308,463899832056,651

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Truro and Falmouth

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Truro and Falmouth.

Truro and FalmouthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
CornwallCarharrack, Gwennap and St Day1,2963484408768410984
CornwallChacewater, Kenwyn and Baldhu3,1951,3637071641563102,421
CornwallFalmouth Arwenack2,9711,307556246875802,254
CornwallFalmouth Boslowick3,8221,1561,0515071493602,899
CornwallFalmouth Penwerris3,7897351,6172691817402,876
CornwallFalmouth Smithick3,9168441,4844128714202,969
CornwallFalmouth Trescobeas3,7559261,4492631486302,849
CornwallFeock and Playing Place3,9521,7188043151134802,998
CornwallLadock, St Clement and St Erme3,5651,4296003959118902,704
CornwallMabe, Perranarworthal and St Gluvias1,25639531717058130953
CornwallNewlyn and Goonhavern3,3021,4057801681133902,505
CornwallPenryn East and Mylor4,2981,4271,0495461558203,259
CornwallPenryn West3,9138261,2466351936702,967
CornwallPerranporth3,7261,1741,1942811136102,823
CornwallProbus, Tregony and Grampound2,7468728632151082502,083
CornwallRoseland2,8271,053729238972702,144
CornwallSt Agnes3,254902560871765902,468
CornwallThreemilestone and Gloweth3,4059701,0174551093102,582
CornwallTruro Boscawen4,4171,2751,39043310514803,351
CornwallTruro Redannick3,740878794995838502,835
CornwallTruro Tregolls3,7941,0651,1065031456002,879
CornwallTruro Trehaverne3,7511,3369533281319802,846
 Total73,60123,40420,7068,4962,5661,477056,649

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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