Tunbridge Wells: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Tunbridge Wells: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Greg Clark  (CON)
County/Area: Kent (South East)
Electorate: 75,138
Turnout: 72.1%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON30,85656.9%53.2%
LAB14,39126.5%26.9%
LIB5,3559.9%9.9%
UKIP1,4642.7%5.1%
Green1,4412.7%3.2%
OTH7021.3%1.8%
CON Majority16,46530.4%Pred Maj 26.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
89%
LAB
10%
LIB
1%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Tunbridge Wells : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Tunbridge Wells constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position7° Right4° Right
National Position1° Int3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %45%52%52%
British Identity29%29%29%
Good Health51%49%48%
UK Born90%88%88%
Good Education47%43%39%
Good Job61%56%51%
High SEC63%57%51%
Average Age49.349.248.5
ABC1 Class64%60%53%

Tunbridge Wells ranks #502 for "Leave", #174 for "Right" and #407 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Tunbridge Wells: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Tunbridge Wells: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Tunbridge Wells

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Tunbridge Wells at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Tunbridge Wells. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Tunbridge WellsActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Tunbridge WellsBrenchley and Horsmonden201493026312333400
Tunbridge WellsBroadwater20145771969539300
Tunbridge WellsCapel201229842340000
Tunbridge WellsCulverden20151,9035635664194180
Tunbridge WellsGoudhurst and Lamberhurst20151,62130028333800
Tunbridge WellsHawkhurst and Sandhurst20151,92534235658700
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood East20151,12626017352400
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood West20151,02442014441900
Tunbridge WellsPantiles and St Mark's20152,0794234603243520
Tunbridge WellsPark20152,12662168946600
Tunbridge WellsPembury20151,67843935177100
Tunbridge WellsRusthall20151,6781,0136828933970
Tunbridge WellsSherwood20151,32351125363900
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough North20151,34337235725600
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough and High Brooms20151,2891,23532554600
Tunbridge WellsSpeldhurst and Bidborough20152,28936649144600
Tunbridge WellsSt James'201424718475124600
Tunbridge WellsSt John's20151,4785038903893490

Tunbridge WellsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Tunbridge WellsBrenchley and Horsmonden3,7181,547438205556002,746
Tunbridge WellsBroadwater3,1101,051357173716002,297
Tunbridge WellsCapel1,728559796380001,276
Tunbridge WellsCulverden5,8072,10962462746446304,287
Tunbridge WellsGoudhurst and Lamberhurst3,4931,644304287343002,578
Tunbridge WellsHawkhurst and Sandhurst4,4981,991354368607003,320
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood East3,0181,204278185560002,227
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood West2,7591,039426146425002,036
Tunbridge WellsPantiles and St Mark's4,9342,08242446132435203,643
Tunbridge WellsPark5,1612,076606673455003,810
Tunbridge WellsPembury4,3031,646431344756003,177
Tunbridge WellsRusthall3,54894356938350222302,620
Tunbridge WellsSherwood4,8931,753677335847003,612
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough North3,0931,317365350251002,283
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough and High Brooms5,3711,5051,442380638003,965
Tunbridge WellsSpeldhurst and Bidborough4,2542,001320429390003,140
Tunbridge WellsSt James'4,4335664221,721564003,273
Tunbridge WellsSt John's5,3071,60554696642237903,918
 Total73,42826,6388,6628,6718,8201,417054,208

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Tunbridge WellsEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Tunbridge WellsBrenchley and Horsmonden3,8051,9025921246922382,747
Tunbridge WellsBroadwater3,1821,3106371849929382,297
Tunbridge WellsCapel1,7687282502501517161,276
Tunbridge WellsCulverden5,9422,3301,04549845317514,286
Tunbridge WellsGoudhurst and Lamberhurst3,5741,8224921535224352,578
Tunbridge WellsHawkhurst and Sandhurst4,6032,13869829211438403,320
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood East3,0881,37052617112210292,228
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood West2,8231,19655214210319252,037
Tunbridge WellsPantiles and St Mark's5,0492,33671430539211383,643
Tunbridge WellsPark5,2812,2329864075783463,811
Tunbridge WellsPembury4,4031,88583126310048503,177
Tunbridge WellsRusthall3,6311,17491626989139342,621
Tunbridge WellsSherwood5,0071,8041,28326717633493,612
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough North3,1651,4305771933131222,284
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough and High Brooms5,4961,7951,56834116947463,966
Tunbridge WellsSpeldhurst and Bidborough4,3532,2136102145113403,141
Tunbridge WellsSt James'4,5361,2841,0687445762583,273
Tunbridge WellsSt John's5,4311,9051,04854077299493,918
 Total73,42830,85414,3935,3571,4651,44270454,208

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Tunbridge Wells

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Tunbridge Wells.

Tunbridge WellsPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Tunbridge WellsBrenchley and Horsmonden3,8051,80060312413436512,748
Tunbridge WellsBroadwater3,1821,22464618415341492,297
Tunbridge WellsCapel1,7686802552504524221,276
Tunbridge WellsCulverden5,9422,1701,062498146339714,286
Tunbridge WellsGoudhurst and Lamberhurst3,5741,72650215311337472,578
Tunbridge WellsHawkhurst and Sandhurst4,6032,01471129219255553,319
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood East3,0881,28753517117421392,227
Tunbridge WellsPaddock Wood West2,8231,12056014215129342,036
Tunbridge WellsPantiles and St Mark's5,0492,200728305125230553,643
Tunbridge WellsPark5,2812,0901,001407147103643,812
Tunbridge WellsPembury4,4031,76784326317564653,177
Tunbridge WellsRusthall3,6311,076926269151152462,620
Tunbridge WellsSherwood5,0071,6691,29726726152663,612
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough North3,1651,3455861938543332,285
Tunbridge WellsSouthborough and High Brooms5,4961,6471,58334126267643,964
Tunbridge WellsSpeldhurst and Bidborough4,3532,09662221412529553,141
Tunbridge WellsSt James'4,5361,1621,08174413479733,273
Tunbridge WellsSt John's5,4311,7591,063540169319673,917
 Total73,42828,83214,6045,3572,7421,72095654,211

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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