Tyrone West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Tyrone West: Overview

 Prediction: SF hold 

MP at 2017: Barry McElduff  (SF)
County/Area: Tyrone (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 64,009
Turnout: 67.9%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
SF22,06050.7%
DUP11,71826.9%
SDLP5,63513.0%
UUP2,2535.2%
MIN1,0002.3%
Green4271.0%
OTH3930.9%
NAT Majority10,34223.8%

EU Referendum vote:

Remain 67%
33% Leave

Tyrone West ranks #599 for "Leave" out of 650 seats.

Tyrone West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Tyrone West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Tyrone West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Tyrone West at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Tyrone West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Tyrone WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Derry and StrabaneArtigarvan20148622831300602244
Derry and StrabaneBallycolman20149124233300640259
Derry and StrabaneCastlederg20142691573080061699
Derry and StrabaneDunnamanagh20148522631000597242
Derry and StrabaneFinn201433919838800776125
Derry and StrabaneGlenderg20142541482910058094
Derry and StrabaneGlenelly Valley20147720327900536217
Derry and StrabaneNewtownstewart20142541492910058294
Derry and StrabaneSion Mills201429517333800675109
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk2014102271369340230154
Derry and StrabaneStrabane North20148723231800612248
Derry and StrabaneStrabane West20147920828600551223
Fermanagh and OmaghBeragh201421215810603371021
Fermanagh and OmaghCamowen20141152332010037778
Fermanagh and OmaghCoolnagard20141322682310043289
Fermanagh and OmaghDergmoney2014941901640030763
Fermanagh and OmaghDromore20142272072550057542
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumnakilly201422816911403676122
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumquin20142282082560057642
Fermanagh and OmaghFairy Water20142272072540057442
Fermanagh and OmaghFintona20142031852280051338
Fermanagh and OmaghGortin201424218012103880823
Fermanagh and OmaghGortrush20141232492140040283
Fermanagh and OmaghKillyclogher20141142311990037377
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownsaville20142061882320052338
Fermanagh and OmaghOwenkillew20141951459703165119
Fermanagh and OmaghSixmilecross201421315910603371321
Fermanagh and OmaghStrule20141032091800033870
Fermanagh and OmaghTermon20141721288602757517
Fermanagh and OmaghTrillick20142061882320052238

Tyrone WestTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneArtigarvan2,45498259355006832771,672
Derry and StrabaneBallycolman2,609103275378007272941,777
Derry and StrabaneCastlederg2,417306178350007001121,646
Derry and StrabaneDunnamanagh2,43396256352006782751,657
Derry and StrabaneFinn3,045385225441008811422,074
Derry and StrabaneGlenderg2,279288168330006591071,552
Derry and StrabaneGlenelly Valley2,18687230317006082461,488
Derry and StrabaneNewtownstewart2,284288169330006611071,555
Derry and StrabaneSion Mills2,652335197384007671241,807
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk8665213818817011778590
Derry and StrabaneStrabane North2,49499263361006942811,698
Derry and StrabaneStrabane West2,24590236325006252531,529
Fermanagh and OmaghBeragh2,002233174117036781231,364
Fermanagh and OmaghCamowen2,151168340293005501141,465
Fermanagh and OmaghCoolnagard2,468193391337006301301,681
Fermanagh and OmaghDergmoney1,75513727824000449921,196
Fermanagh and OmaghDromore1,97423421326200592431,344
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumnakilly2,146251186125040836241,462
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumquin1,97823421426300592431,346
Fermanagh and OmaghFairy Water1,96923321326100590431,340
Fermanagh and OmaghFintona1,76220919023400528391,200
Fermanagh and OmaghGortin2,278266198133042888251,552
Fermanagh and OmaghGortrush2,294179363312005861211,561
Fermanagh and OmaghKillyclogher2,131166337291005451121,451
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownsaville1,79421219423900538391,222
Fermanagh and OmaghOwenkillew1,834214159106034715211,249
Fermanagh and OmaghSixmilecross2,009234175116036784231,368
Fermanagh and OmaghStrule1,929150305263004931021,313
Fermanagh and OmaghTermon1,62118914194030632191,105
Fermanagh and OmaghTrillick1,79321219423900537391,221
 Total63,8525,9416,8598,0361721819,0663,34843,485

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Tyrone WestEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneArtigarvan2,46037213499088001161,673
Derry and StrabaneBallycolman2,61539226530098511231,778
Derry and StrabaneCastlederg2,42311614650409825461,646
Derry and StrabaneDunnamanagh2,43936210494087941141,656
Derry and StrabaneFinn3,0521461856350111,038592,074
Derry and StrabaneGlenderg2,28510913847508777451,552
Derry and StrabaneGlenelly Valley2,19133189445077121021,488
Derry and StrabaneNewtownstewart2,29010913947508779451,555
Derry and StrabaneSion Mills2,659127162553010904521,808
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk868201132520416932590
Derry and StrabaneStrabane North2,50038216507088121171,698
Derry and StrabaneStrabane West2,25134194456077321061,529
Fermanagh and OmaghBeragh2,00788143218042863101,364
Fermanagh and OmaghCamowen2,1566427941707651471,465
Fermanagh and OmaghCoolnagard2,4747332147908745541,680
Fermanagh and OmaghDergmoney1,7595222834106531381,196
Fermanagh and OmaghDromore1,9798917537306683181,344
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumnakilly2,15195153234046924101,462
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumquin1,9838917637506683181,347
Fermanagh and OmaghFairy Water1,9748817537206680181,339
Fermanagh and OmaghFintona1,7667915633406609171,201
Fermanagh and OmaghGortin2,284101163248049982101,553
Fermanagh and OmaghGortrush2,3006829844407693501,560
Fermanagh and OmaghKillyclogher2,1366327741307644461,450
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownsaville1,7988015934006620171,222
Fermanagh and OmaghOwenkillew1,8398113119903979081,248
Fermanagh and OmaghSixmilecross2,01489144218042867101,370
Fermanagh and OmaghStrule1,9345725137406583421,313
Fermanagh and OmaghTermon1,6257211617603569981,106
Fermanagh and OmaghTrillick1,7978015934006619171,221
 Total63,8522,2525,63511,720042722,0591,39543,485

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Tyrone West

This table shows the estimated 2017 general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Tyrone West.

Tyrone WestEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Derry and StrabaneArtigarvan2,46037213499088001161,673
Derry and StrabaneBallycolman2,61539226530098511231,778
Derry and StrabaneCastlederg2,42311614650409825461,646
Derry and StrabaneDunnamanagh2,43936210494087941141,656
Derry and StrabaneFinn3,0521461856350111,038592,074
Derry and StrabaneGlenderg2,28510913847508777451,552
Derry and StrabaneGlenelly Valley2,19133189445077121021,488
Derry and StrabaneNewtownstewart2,29010913947508779451,555
Derry and StrabaneSion Mills2,659127162553010904521,808
Derry and StrabaneSlievekirk868201132520416932590
Derry and StrabaneStrabane North2,50038216507088121171,698
Derry and StrabaneStrabane West2,25134194456077321061,529
Fermanagh and OmaghBeragh2,00788143218042863101,364
Fermanagh and OmaghCamowen2,1566427941707651471,465
Fermanagh and OmaghCoolnagard2,4747332147908745541,680
Fermanagh and OmaghDergmoney1,7595222834106531381,196
Fermanagh and OmaghDromore1,9798917537306683181,344
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumnakilly2,15195153234046924101,462
Fermanagh and OmaghDrumquin1,9838917637506683181,347
Fermanagh and OmaghFairy Water1,9748817537206680181,339
Fermanagh and OmaghFintona1,7667915633406609171,201
Fermanagh and OmaghGortin2,284101163248049982101,553
Fermanagh and OmaghGortrush2,3006829844407693501,560
Fermanagh and OmaghKillyclogher2,1366327741307644461,450
Fermanagh and OmaghNewtownsaville1,7988015934006620171,222
Fermanagh and OmaghOwenkillew1,8398113119903979081,248
Fermanagh and OmaghSixmilecross2,01489144218042867101,370
Fermanagh and OmaghStrule1,9345725137406583421,313
Fermanagh and OmaghTermon1,6257211617603569981,106
Fermanagh and OmaghTrillick1,7978015934006619171,221
 Total63,8522,2525,63511,720042722,0591,39543,488

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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