Ulster Mid: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Ulster Mid: Overview

 Prediction: SF hold 

MP at 2017: Francie Molloy  (SF)
County/Area: Tyrone (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 68,485
Turnout: 68.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
SF25,45554.5%
DUP12,56526.9%
SDLP4,5639.8%
UUP3,0176.5%
MIN1,0942.3%
NAT Majority12,89027.6%

EU Referendum vote:

Remain 60%
40% Leave

Ulster Mid ranks #548 for "Leave" out of 650 seats.

Ulster Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Ulster Mid: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Ulster Mid

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Ulster Mid at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Ulster Mid. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Ulster MidActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe201418725314400698113
Mid UlsterBallygawley2014366197414004820
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2014280224305008420
Mid UlsterBellaghy2014254203278007650
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield2014355191402004680
Mid UlsterCastledawson2014257205280007720
Mid UlsterCoagh2014298151158270521105
Mid UlsterCoalisland North201418024413900672109
Mid UlsterCoalisland South201420928216100777126
Mid UlsterCookstown East2014288145152260503101
Mid UlsterCookstown South2014329166174300575116
Mid UlsterCookstown West2014327165173300571115
Mid UlsterCoolshinny201415120733300397252
Mid UlsterDonaghmore201418725314400698113
Mid UlsterDraperstown2014212169231006360
Mid UlsterGlebe201416222335700426271
Mid UlsterKillyman20142179822200217316
Mid UlsterKillymeal201427112227700270394
Mid UlsterLissan201415521434200409260
Mid UlsterLoughry201426313313924045993
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane20141101881140077384
Mid UlsterMaghera201414224314700996108
Mid UlsterOaklands2014282143150260493100
Mid UlsterPomeroy2014349176185320609123
Mid UlsterStewartstown20141582141220058996
Mid UlsterSwatragh20141282201330090198
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly201413523214000951103
Mid UlsterThe Loup201416022035200421267
Mid UlsterTobermore2014253202276007600
Mid UlsterTown Parks East201415821834900417264
Mid UlsterValley201413623414100958104
Mid UlsterWashing Bay201418224614000677110

Ulster MidTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe2,484229310177008561391,711
Mid UlsterBallygawley40269377900910276
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,6613112493380093401,832
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,4192822253090084901,665
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield68711964134001560473
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,4422852283110085701,681
Mid UlsterCoagh2,1953571811893206251261,510
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,391220299170008231331,645
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,764256345197009511541,903
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,1173451741823106031211,456
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,4203941992093606891391,666
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,4073921982083606851381,657
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,348182250402004793041,617
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,483229310176008551381,708
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,0122351882560070601,385
Mid UlsterGlebe2,519195269430005133271,734
Mid UlsterKillyman409572658005783281
Mid UlsterKillymeal228321433003246157
Mid UlsterLissan2,418187258413004933141,665
Mid UlsterLoughry1,9323151591662905491111,329
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane1,95511719912100820891,346
Mid UlsterMaghera2,519151258156001,0561141,735
Mid UlsterOaklands2,0783381711803105911201,431
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,5674182112223807301471,766
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,097193262149007211181,443
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,279136233141009551041,569
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,407143246149001,0091091,656
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,488193265425005083221,713
Mid UlsterTobermore2,4032812243060084301,654
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,463191263421005033181,696
Mid UlsterValley2,424144248150001,0161101,668
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,411223301171008291351,659
 Total67,8297,2196,8647,028233021,3843,95946,687

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Ulster MidEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe2,5089620637200999381,711
Mid UlsterBallygawley4062925109001130276
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,687130166490001,04601,832
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,4421181504470095101,666
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield6945043186001940473
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,4661191524510096001,682
Mid UlsterCoagh2,21614912041500791351,510
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,4149219935700961371,646
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,791107229414001,110431,903
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,13714411640000763331,456
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,44316513245800872381,665
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,43016413245600867381,657
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,3717616663800653841,617
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,5079620637000998381,708
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,031981253710079101,385
Mid UlsterGlebe2,5438117968400700901,734
Mid UlsterKillyman41324171170010023281
Mid UlsterKillymeal23013966005613157
Mid UlsterLissan2,4417817265700672871,666
Mid UlsterLoughry1,95113210636500696311,330
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane1,9744913223600904251,346
Mid UlsterMaghera2,54363172304001,165321,736
Mid UlsterOaklands2,09814111439400749331,431
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,59217514048600924411,766
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,1178117431400842331,444
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,30157155275001,054291,570
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,43060164290001,113301,657
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,5128117667500692891,713
Mid UlsterTobermore2,4261171494440094401,654
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,4878017566800685881,696
Mid UlsterValley2,44760165292001,120301,667
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,4349320036000968371,658
 Total67,8293,0184,56612,5610025,4531,09546,687

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Ulster Mid

This table shows the estimated 2017 general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Ulster Mid.

Ulster MidEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Mid UlsterArdboe2,5089620637200999381,711
Mid UlsterBallygawley4062925109001130276
Mid UlsterBallymaguigan2,687130166490001,04601,832
Mid UlsterBellaghy2,4421181504470095101,666
Mid UlsterCastlecaulfield6945043186001940473
Mid UlsterCastledawson2,4661191524510096001,682
Mid UlsterCoagh2,21614912041500791351,510
Mid UlsterCoalisland North2,4149219935700961371,646
Mid UlsterCoalisland South2,791107229414001,110431,903
Mid UlsterCookstown East2,13714411640000763331,456
Mid UlsterCookstown South2,44316513245800872381,665
Mid UlsterCookstown West2,43016413245600867381,657
Mid UlsterCoolshinny2,3717616663800653841,617
Mid UlsterDonaghmore2,5079620637000998381,708
Mid UlsterDraperstown2,031981253710079101,385
Mid UlsterGlebe2,5438117968400700901,734
Mid UlsterKillyman41324171170010023281
Mid UlsterKillymeal23013966005613157
Mid UlsterLissan2,4417817265700672871,666
Mid UlsterLoughry1,95113210636500696311,330
Mid UlsterLower Glenshane1,9744913223600904251,346
Mid UlsterMaghera2,54363172304001,165321,736
Mid UlsterOaklands2,09814111439400749331,431
Mid UlsterPomeroy2,59217514048600924411,766
Mid UlsterStewartstown2,1178117431400842331,444
Mid UlsterSwatragh2,30157155275001,054291,570
Mid UlsterTamlaght O'Crilly2,43060164290001,113301,657
Mid UlsterThe Loup2,5128117667500692891,713
Mid UlsterTobermore2,4261171494440094401,654
Mid UlsterTown Parks East2,4878017566800685881,696
Mid UlsterValley2,44760165292001,120301,667
Mid UlsterWashing Bay2,4349320036000968371,658
 Total67,8293,0184,56612,5610025,4531,09546,693

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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