Upper Bann: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Upper Bann: Overview

 Prediction: DUP hold 

MP at 2017: David Simpson  (DUP)
County/Area: Armagh (Northern Ireland)
Electorate: 80,168
Turnout: 63.9%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
DUP22,31743.5%
SF14,32527.9%
UUP7,90015.4%
SDLP4,3978.6%
MIN2,3194.5%
LIB Majority7,99215.6%

EU Referendum vote:

Remain 47%
53% Leave

Upper Bann ranks #347 for "Leave" out of 650 seats.

Upper Bann: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Upper Bann: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Upper Bann

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Upper Bann at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Upper Bann. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Upper BannActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon201431042915434065720
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay20143151415311260271240
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East201461321635600184124
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North201460121234900181122
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South201465923338300198134
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West201477227244800232156
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary201432122437700334227
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow201444831352500465317
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain20143651646141460313278
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre201439027245700405276
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna201433423339200347237
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney2014508616580052337
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford201467723939400203137
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan201434023739800353241
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain20143101395221240266236
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane201426737013329056617
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road201431443515634066620
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland201468024039500204138
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin201427838513830059018
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon20143331495611330286253
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview201431844015835067420
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake201433546416636071121
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill201438453119042081324
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches20143681656201470316280
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown2014578697490060384

Upper BannTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,284406562202450861262,102
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,06438117064115203272901,961
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,169570201331001711151,388
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North2,881757267439002281541,845
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,161830293482002491692,023
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,699973343564002921972,369
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,050423295496004402991,953
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow4,251590412691006124172,722
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain3,54344019874117603783352,268
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,705514358602005343642,372
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,174440307516004573122,032
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney2,9555957177000613951,892
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,246853301496002561732,079
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,228448312524004653172,066
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain3,01237416863015003212851,928
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane2,832350485175380743221,813
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,329412571205450874262,133
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,73945716126500137931,113
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin2,948365505181390774241,888
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,14639117565915603362972,014
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,370417577207460884262,157
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,553440609218470933282,275
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill4,0665046972495501,067312,603
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,20139817867015903423032,050
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,4476938389800724612,207
 Total80,05313,0218,29911,8521,108011,8145,15951,253

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Upper BannEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,28924629859200955122,103
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,068231901,078004321301,961
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,17234610663900245521,388
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North2,88545914184900326691,844
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,16650415593100357762,023
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,7045901821,09000418892,369
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,054257156875005311341,953
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow4,2573582181,219007391872,721
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain3,5482671051,246004991512,268
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,7103121901,062006441642,372
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,179267163910005521402,032
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney2,959361381,161001551781,893
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,25151815995700367782,079
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,233272165925005611422,065
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain3,016227891,060004241281,928
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane2,83621225751000823101,812
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,33425030360000969122,134
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,7412778551200196421,112
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin2,95222126853000858111,888
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,151237931,107004441342,015
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,37525330660700980122,158
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,558267323639001,034132,276
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill4,072306369731001,183142,603
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,206241941,126004521362,049
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,452420441,354001812072,206
 Total80,0537,8994,39722,3100014,3252,32151,253

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Upper Bann

This table shows the estimated 2017 general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Upper Bann.

Upper BannEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
UUP
Votes
SDLP
Votes
DUP
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
SF
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonAghagallon3,28924629859200955122,103
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBallybay3,068231901,078004321301,961
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge East2,17234610663900245521,388
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge North2,88545914184900326691,844
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge South3,16650415593100357762,023
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBanbridge West3,7045901821,09000418892,369
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBleary3,054257156875005311341,953
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonBrownlow4,2573582181,219007391872,721
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCorcrain3,5482671051,246004991512,268
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonCraigavon Centre3,7103121901,062006441642,372
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDerrytrasna3,179267163910005521402,032
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonDonaghcloney2,959361381,161001551781,893
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonGilford3,25151815995700367782,079
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKernan3,233272165925005611422,065
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKillycomain3,016227891,060004241281,928
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonKnocknashane2,83621225751000823101,812
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLough Road3,33425030360000969122,134
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonLoughbrickland1,7412778551200196421,112
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMagheralin2,95222126853000858111,888
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMahon3,151237931,107004441342,015
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonMourneview3,37525330660700980122,158
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonParklake3,558267323639001,034132,276
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonShankill4,072306369731001,183142,603
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonThe Birches3,206241941,126004521362,049
Armagh, Banbridge and CraigavonWaringstown3,452420441,354001812072,206
 Total80,0537,8994,39722,3100014,3252,32151,252

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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