Vale of Clwyd: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Vale of Clwyd: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Chris Ruane  (LAB)
County/Area: Clwyd (Wales)
Electorate: 56,890
Turnout: 68.0%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB19,42350.2%49.2%
CON17,04444.1%41.0%
Plaid1,5514.0%4.0%
LIB6661.7%1.8%
UKIP00.0%2.9%
Green00.0%1.1%
LAB Majority2,3796.1%Pred Maj 8.2%
Chance of
winning
LAB
64%
CON
36%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Vale of Clwyd : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Vale of Clwyd constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position4° Left10° Left
National Position3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %55%53%52%
British Identity28%26%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education33%36%39%
Good Job44%46%51%
High SEC45%46%51%
Average Age51.449.648.5
ABC1 Class44%47%53%

Vale of Clwyd ranks #275 for "Leave", #430 for "Right" and #369 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Vale of Clwyd: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Vale of Clwyd: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Vale of Clwyd

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Vale of Clwyd at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Vale of Clwyd. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Vale of ClwydActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
DenbighshireBodelwyddan2012842230000294
DenbighshireDenbigh Central2012250000288278
DenbighshireDenbigh Lower20121180138003862,265
DenbighshireDenbigh Upper / Henllan20122468966985000
DenbighshireDyserth2012369275840000
DenbighshireLlandyrnog2012085250073569
DenbighshirePrestatyn Central20121,0651,162008700
DenbighshirePrestatyn East201298770500500622
DenbighshirePrestatyn Meliden20121741590000264
DenbighshirePrestatyn North20129801,83700002,005
DenbighshirePrestatyn South West20128661,14800000
DenbighshireRhuddlan201288707100419603
DenbighshireRhyl East20128261,2290000267
DenbighshireRhyl South20126981,2410002080
DenbighshireRhyl South East20121,5993,1360000284
DenbighshireRhyl South West20122121,44471000325
DenbighshireRhyl West2012205739000125142
DenbighshireSt Asaph East20122520146000160
DenbighshireSt Asaph West2012989810000181
DenbighshireTrefnant201231200003640
DenbighshireTremeirchion201226400000313

Vale of ClwydTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireBodelwyddan1,71816443600005751,175
DenbighshireDenbigh Central1,6954900005655461,160
DenbighshireDenbigh Lower3,6151000117003291,9282,474
DenbighshireDenbigh Upper / Henllan2,5283291,196921140001,731
DenbighshireDyserth1,86864848314800001,279
DenbighshireLlandyrnog1,696013139001138791,162
DenbighshirePrestatyn Central2,7988829620072001,916
DenbighshirePrestatyn East3,235925660004705832,215
DenbighshirePrestatyn Meliden1,63432629800004951,119
DenbighshirePrestatyn North4,5216291,17900001,2873,095
DenbighshirePrestatyn South West2,7468081,072000001,880
DenbighshireRhuddlan2,883884071004186011,974
DenbighshireRhyl East3,3508161,21400002642,294
DenbighshireRhyl South2,9136481,15300019301,994
DenbighshireRhyl South East5,9771,3042,55700002324,093
DenbighshireRhyl South West4,3313062,0861030004702,965
DenbighshireRhyl West3,4874041,4570002462802,387
DenbighshireSt Asaph East1,3314120238000261911
DenbighshireSt Asaph West1,33623223224000428916
DenbighshireTrefnant1,546488000057001,058
DenbighshireTremeirchion1,29940700000482889
 Total56,50710,76115,1168321141192,4349,31138,687

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Vale of ClwydEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireBodelwyddan1,7305286271200801,175
DenbighshireDenbigh Central1,706433431450025101,160
DenbighshireDenbigh Lower3,6401,2119231090023302,476
DenbighshireDenbigh Upper / Henllan2,5454861,064760010501,731
DenbighshireDyserth1,88166853071001101,280
DenbighshireLlandyrnog1,70763844220006201,162
DenbighshirePrestatyn Central2,8178801,0106002001,916
DenbighshirePrestatyn East3,2571,18798519002402,215
DenbighshirePrestatyn Meliden1,6455854960003701,118
DenbighshirePrestatyn North4,5521,3971,62836003403,095
DenbighshirePrestatyn South West2,7657831,083600801,880
DenbighshireRhuddlan2,9031,170620300015401,974
DenbighshireRhyl East3,3739571,30715001502,294
DenbighshireRhyl South2,9337741,1354008101,994
DenbighshireRhyl South East6,0181,6432,39729002404,093
DenbighshireRhyl South West4,3608311,99343009702,964
DenbighshireRhyl West3,5117511,504110012102,387
DenbighshireSt Asaph East1,34052226811200100912
DenbighshireSt Asaph West1,3454214591000240914
DenbighshireTrefnant1,55659025700021101,058
DenbighshireTremeirchion1,3085922631300220890
 Total56,50717,04719,422667001,552038,687

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Vale of Clwyd

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Vale of Clwyd.

Vale of ClwydPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
DenbighshireBodelwyddan1,730492615133413801,175
DenbighshireDenbigh Central1,70639741946341325101,160
DenbighshireDenbigh Lower3,6401,134898110722823302,475
DenbighshireDenbigh Upper / Henllan2,5454321,04777512010501,732
DenbighshireDyserth1,8816285177237141101,279
DenbighshireLlandyrnog1,7076024302134136201,162
DenbighshirePrestatyn Central2,817821991756222001,917
DenbighshirePrestatyn East3,2571,1189632065252402,215
DenbighshirePrestatyn Meliden1,645550485133133701,119
DenbighshirePrestatyn North4,5521,3011,5973890353403,095
DenbighshirePrestatyn South West2,7657251,06475521801,880
DenbighshireRhuddlan2,9031,10960031582215401,974
DenbighshireRhyl East3,3738861,2841667261502,294
DenbighshireRhyl South2,9337121,115558238101,994
DenbighshireRhyl South East6,0181,5162,35631120462404,093
DenbighshireRhyl South West4,3607391,9634587339702,964
DenbighshireRhyl West3,5116771,48012702712102,387
DenbighshireSt Asaph East1,3404942591122710100912
DenbighshireSt Asaph West1,345393450102710240914
DenbighshireTrefnant1,5565572461311221101,058
DenbighshireTremeirchion1,308564254132610220889
 Total56,50715,84719,0336881,1324361,552038,688

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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