Vale of Glamorgan: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Vale of Glamorgan: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Alun Cairns  (CON)
County/Area: South Glamorgan (Wales)
Electorate: 73,958
Turnout: 72.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON25,50147.5%44.4%
LAB23,31143.4%42.4%
Plaid2,2954.3%4.3%
LIB1,0201.9%2.0%
UKIP8681.6%4.8%
Green4190.8%2.0%
OTH3040.6%0.2%
CON Majority2,1904.1%Pred Maj 2.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
54%
LAB
46%
Plaid
0%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Vale of Glamorgan : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Vale of Glamorgan constituency, the 'Wales' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWalesAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position10° Left
National Position2° Int3° Int1° Int
EU Leave %51%53%52%
British Identity30%26%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born96%95%88%
Good Education39%36%39%
Good Job53%46%51%
High SEC54%46%51%
Average Age49.949.648.5
ABC1 Class53%47%53%

Vale of Glamorgan ranks #393 for "Leave", #335 for "Right" and #430 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Vale of Glamorgan: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Vale of Glamorgan: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Vale of Glamorgan

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Vale of Glamorgan at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Vale of Glamorgan. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Vale of GlamorganActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Vale of GlamorganBaruc20129569190001,576471
Vale of GlamorganButtrills20123691,432000808138
Vale of GlamorganCadoc20121,3143,356000819387
Vale of GlamorganCastleland20121611,4010007240
Vale of GlamorganCourt20122051,071000229487
Vale of GlamorganCowbridge20123,7541,7740005720
Vale of GlamorganDinas Powys20124,1342,1600005,4210
Vale of GlamorganDyfan20121,1901,5940002580
Vale of GlamorganGibbonsdown20122071,541000149601
Vale of GlamorganIlltyd20121,8502,3540006551,020
Vale of GlamorganLlandow / Ewenny20125772190001930
Vale of GlamorganLlantwit Major20122,6521,9250002696,488
Vale of GlamorganPeterston-super-Ely201265322300000
Vale of GlamorganRhoose20121,5377130000882
Vale of GlamorganSt Athan201243531100000
Vale of GlamorganSt Bride's Major20124802540017200
Vale of GlamorganWenvoe201259921700000

Vale of GlamorganTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Vale of GlamorganBaruc4,7368598260001,4164233,524
Vale of GlamorganButtrills4,8124811,8670001,0531803,581
Vale of GlamorganCadoc7,3991,2313,1450007673635,506
Vale of GlamorganCastleland3,5501861,61900083702,642
Vale of GlamorganCourt3,5492721,4200003046462,642
Vale of GlamorganCowbridge4,5732,09499000031903,403
Vale of GlamorganDinas Powys5,7951,5227950001,99504,312
Vale of GlamorganDyfan3,7861,1021,47600023902,817
Vale of GlamorganGibbonsdown4,2742641,9620001907653,181
Vale of GlamorganIlltyd5,9481,3931,7720004937684,426
Vale of GlamorganLlandow / Ewenny1,97085532500028601,466
Vale of GlamorganLlantwit Major7,8191,3619880001383,3315,818
Vale of GlamorganPeterston-super-Ely1,661921315000001,236
Vale of GlamorganRhoose5,1241,87186800001,0743,813
Vale of GlamorganSt Athan3,3251,4431,032000002,475
Vale of GlamorganSt Bride's Major1,97077741100278001,466
Vale of GlamorganWenvoe1,8961,036375000001,411
 Total72,18717,66820,186002788,0377,55053,719

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Vale of GlamorganEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Vale of GlamorganBaruc4,8521,7081,381687029245233,524
Vale of GlamorganButtrills4,9301,0532,075516927294133,582
Vale of GlamorganCadoc7,5811,9653,068467523308215,506
Vale of GlamorganCastleland3,6377191,60532631920232,643
Vale of GlamorganCourt3,6367961,54244657166212,641
Vale of GlamorganCowbridge4,6852,227996103846053,403
Vale of GlamorganDinas Powys5,9372,3361,4071405131337104,312
Vale of GlamorganDyfan3,8791,1911,4241257312462,817
Vale of GlamorganGibbonsdown4,3799301,945428817137223,181
Vale of GlamorganIlltyd6,0942,0822,038675220140274,426
Vale of GlamorganLlandow / Ewenny2,01895641724755331,465
Vale of GlamorganLlantwit Major8,0113,1881,9692731776052995,818
Vale of GlamorganPeterston-super-Ely1,70283234518043611,236
Vale of GlamorganRhoose5,2502,3551,2414478754353,814
Vale of GlamorganSt Athan3,4071,3621,00323617182,474
Vale of GlamorganSt Bride's Major2,018821438292162851,465
Vale of GlamorganWenvoe1,943981415500821,411
 Total72,18725,50223,3091,0218684192,29530453,719

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Vale of Glamorgan

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Vale of Glamorgan.

Vale of GlamorganPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Plaid
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Vale of GlamorganBaruc4,8521,5991,345701857324563,523
Vale of GlamorganButtrills4,9309422,039531807029443,582
Vale of GlamorganCadoc7,5811,7953,012492478930865,506
Vale of GlamorganCastleland3,6376371,578331424920212,642
Vale of GlamorganCourt3,6367141,515461534116662,641
Vale of GlamorganCowbridge4,6852,122962105110436013,403
Vale of GlamorganDinas Powys5,9372,2031,3631421828233734,312
Vale of GlamorganDyfan3,8791,1041,396141423612422,818
Vale of GlamorganGibbonsdown4,3798321,913441925713763,181
Vale of GlamorganIlltyd6,0941,9451,993701957514074,425
Vale of GlamorganLlandow / Ewenny2,0189114022551225311,465
Vale of GlamorganLlantwit Major8,0113,0081,91027739814652275,818
Vale of GlamorganPeterston-super-Ely1,7027943331937183601,237
Vale of GlamorganRhoose5,2502,2371,202462085754103,814
Vale of GlamorganSt Athan3,4071,2859782482317122,473
Vale of GlamorganSt Bride's Major2,0187764233047180811,465
Vale of GlamorganWenvoe1,94393740164216811,411
 Total72,18723,84122,7651,0532,5931,0852,2958453,716

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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