Wantage: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Wantage: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Ed Vaizey  (CON)
County/Area: Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate: 87,735
Turnout: 72.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON34,45954.2%50.5%
LAB17,07926.9%27.2%
LIB9,23414.5%14.5%
Green1,5462.4%2.9%
UKIP1,2842.0%4.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority17,38027.3%Pred Maj 23.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
84%
LAB
15%
LIB
2%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Wantage : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Wantage constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position4° Right4° Right
National Position1° Int3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %47%52%52%
British Identity31%29%29%
Good Health52%49%48%
UK Born91%88%88%
Good Education47%43%39%
Good Job59%56%51%
High SEC61%57%51%
Average Age49.549.248.5
ABC1 Class63%60%53%

Wantage ranks #467 for "Leave", #249 for "Right" and #416 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Wantage: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Wantage: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Wantage

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Wantage at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Wantage. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

WantageActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
South OxfordshireCholsey20153,8971,2228101,0145671,323
South OxfordshireDidcot North East20154,9572,6441,1301,49401,441
South OxfordshireDidcot South20154,3494,0401,4761,77300
South OxfordshireDidcot West20152,6891,76456060400
South OxfordshireSandford and the Wittenhams20151,03036744503430
South OxfordshireWallingford20153,2471,62407391,1350
Vale of White HorseBlewbury and Harwell20152,9477378335720700
Vale of White HorseDrayton2015654172614210079
Vale of White HorseFaringdon20153,0488701,90205820
Vale of White HorseGrove North20151,9424831,58654800
Vale of White HorseHendreds201583040117800183
Vale of White HorseKingston Bagpuize20151,2510656000
Vale of White HorseMarcham2015597072300168
Vale of White HorseRidgeway20151,182269345000
Vale of White HorseStanford20151,190568256000
Vale of White HorseSteventon and the Hanneys20158912162522750270
Vale of White HorseSutton Courtenay20157452812022290103
Vale of White HorseThames20151,232058623000
Vale of White HorseWantage Charlton20152,8776171,5315626090
Vale of White HorseWantage and Grove Brook20152,6777802,0955440304
Vale of White HorseWatchfield and Shrivenham20154,53253978306010

WantageTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South OxfordshireCholsey6,2962,1156634405503087184,794
South OxfordshireDidcot North East8,0952,6191,39759778907616,163
South OxfordshireDidcot South7,8292,2282,070756908005,962
South OxfordshireDidcot West3,7801,378904287310002,879
South OxfordshireSandford and the Wittenhams7982861021240950607
South OxfordshireWallingford6,1322,2481,124051278604,670
Vale of White HorseBlewbury and Harwell3,9291,52338143129603622,993
Vale of White HorseDrayton2,3296711766302150811,773
Vale of White HorseFaringdon5,5842,0255781,263038704,253
Vale of White HorseGrove North4,0841,3253291,082374003,110
Vale of White HorseHendreds2,215879425189001941,687
Vale of White HorseKingston Bagpuize2,4601,22906440001,873
Vale of White HorseMarcham3,19097501,180002742,429
Vale of White HorseRidgeway2,1851,0952493200001,664
Vale of White HorseStanford2,7141,2215832630002,067
Vale of White HorseSteventon and the Hanneys2,27180919622925002451,729
Vale of White HorseSutton Courtenay2,17679129821524301091,656
Vale of White HorseThames1,8198330396156001,385
Vale of White HorseWantage Charlton4,8951,73137192133836603,727
Vale of White HorseWantage and Grove Brook5,5301,7625131,37935802004,212
Vale of White HorseWatchfield and Shrivenham5,2072,784331481036903,965
 Total83,51830,52710,69011,8275,2992,3112,94463,598

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

WantageEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South OxfordshireCholsey6,6142,7181,3334798717704,794
South OxfordshireDidcot North East8,5043,1092,2266291584206,164
South OxfordshireDidcot South8,2242,5312,4366992682705,961
South OxfordshireDidcot West3,9711,4949552871261802,880
South OxfordshireSandford and the Wittenhams838318144970470606
South OxfordshireWallingford6,4422,4381,3884147235804,670
Vale of White HorseBlewbury and Harwell4,1271,742752422472902,992
Vale of White HorseDrayton2,447905391399601901,774
Vale of White HorseFaringdon5,8662,2149338643920304,253
Vale of White HorseGrove North4,2901,540798665891803,110
Vale of White HorseHendreds2,32799152215222001,687
Vale of White HorseKingston Bagpuize2,5841,232230371102901,872
Vale of White HorseMarcham3,3511,31345863581602,430
Vale of White HorseRidgeway2,2951,070309245112801,663
Vale of White HorseStanford2,8511,238514262134002,067
Vale of White HorseSteventon and the Hanneys2,3861,033393198703601,730
Vale of White HorseSutton Courtenay2,286875496201493501,656
Vale of White HorseThames1,911862233254211601,386
Vale of White HorseWantage Charlton5,1421,9728916426515803,728
Vale of White HorseWantage and Grove Brook5,8092,1291,066913792604,213
Vale of White HorseWatchfield and Shrivenham5,4702,7366094081020303,966
 Total83,51834,46017,0779,2361,2841,545063,598

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Wantage

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Wantage.

WantagePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South OxfordshireCholsey6,6142,5391,352479200202224,794
South OxfordshireDidcot North East8,5042,8792,25062930374286,163
South OxfordshireDidcot South8,2242,3092,45969940958285,962
South OxfordshireDidcot West3,9711,38796628719433132,880
South OxfordshireSandford and the Wittenhams8382951469714503605
South OxfordshireWallingford6,4422,2641,406414182382224,670
Vale of White HorseBlewbury and Harwell4,1271,63076442211844142,992
Vale of White HorseDrayton2,4478393983991022881,774
Vale of White HorseFaringdon5,8662,055949864139225204,252
Vale of White HorseGrove North4,2901,42481066516234143,109
Vale of White HorseHendreds2,327928529152422981,688
Vale of White HorseKingston Bagpuize2,5841,162237371543991,872
Vale of White HorseMarcham3,3511,2224676356528112,428
Vale of White HorseRidgeway2,2951,008315245503781,663
Vale of White HorseStanford2,8511,1615222626251102,068
Vale of White HorseSteventon and the Hanneys2,3869684001981114581,730
Vale of White HorseSutton Courtenay2,286813502201884481,656
Vale of White HorseThames1,911810238254542361,385
Vale of White HorseWantage Charlton5,1421,833905642153177173,727
Vale of White HorseWantage and Grove Brook5,8091,9721,08291317848194,212
Vale of White HorseWatchfield and Shrivenham5,4702,588624408104223183,965
 Total83,51832,08617,3219,2362,7841,87429463,595

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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