Warwickshire North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Warwickshire North: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Craig Tracey  (CON)
County/Area: Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 72,277
Turnout: 65.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON26,86056.9%53.8%
LAB18,35038.9%37.9%
LIB1,0282.2%2.2%
Green9402.0%3.1%
UKIP00.0%2.9%
CON Majority8,51018.0%Pred Maj 15.9%
Chance of
winning
CON
78%
LAB
22%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Warwickshire North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Warwickshire North constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position2° Right2° Right
National Position14° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %67%59%52%
British Identity23%28%29%
Good Health44%45%48%
UK Born96%89%88%
Good Education30%35%39%
Good Job45%48%51%
High SEC44%46%51%
Average Age50.048.748.5
ABC1 Class46%49%53%

Warwickshire North ranks #51 for "Leave", #288 for "Right" and #48 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Warwickshire North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Warwickshire North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Warwickshire North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Warwickshire North at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Warwickshire North. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Warwickshire NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
North WarwickshireAtherstone Central20159501,474045400
North WarwickshireAtherstone North20151,3891,1780826790
North WarwickshireAtherstone South and Mancetter20151,5511,251094300
North WarwickshireBaddesley and Grendon20151,8221,703048700
North WarwickshireColeshill North20151,2111,412037000
North WarwickshireColeshill South20151,6401,235034900
North WarwickshireCurdworth20152,10934405230334
North WarwickshireDordon20153991,22803320256
North WarwickshireFillongley20151,988740094000
North WarwickshireHurley and Wood End20151,2281,630098300
North WarwickshireKingsbury20151,5461,305097600
North WarwickshireNewton Regis and Warton20151,9171,063042700
North WarwickshirePolesworth East20151,0641,740042400
North WarwickshirePolesworth West20151,3291,226046800
North WarwickshireWater Orton20151,81891901,11700
Nuneaton and BedworthBede2014312933000400
Nuneaton and BedworthExhall201437386805219230
Nuneaton and BedworthHeath20145681,075000187
Nuneaton and BedworthPoplar20145251,2840000
Nuneaton and BedworthSlough20147931,1220000

Warwickshire NorthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North WarwickshireAtherstone Central3,0486771,0500323002,050
North WarwickshireAtherstone North2,70472761704334101,818
North WarwickshireAtherstone South and Mancetter2,8117836310476001,890
North WarwickshireBaddesley and Grendon3,1109508880254002,092
North WarwickshireColeshill North2,5336898040211001,704
North WarwickshireColeshill South2,5278646510184001,699
North WarwickshireCurdworth2,4871,066174026401691,673
North WarwickshireDordon2,494302930025101941,677
North WarwickshireFillongley2,5489293460439001,714
North WarwickshireHurley and Wood End3,0236508630520002,033
North WarwickshireKingsbury2,9147926680500001,960
North WarwickshireNewton Regis and Warton2,7401,0375750231001,843
North WarwickshirePolesworth East2,7526109980243001,851
North WarwickshirePolesworth West2,7047997370282001,818
North WarwickshireWater Orton2,6898534310524001,808
Nuneaton and BedworthBede5,2066641,9860008513,501
Nuneaton and BedworthExhall6,2478321,93601,162205674,202
Nuneaton and BedworthHeath5,8161,2142,2980004003,912
Nuneaton and BedworthPoplar6,2821,2262,99900004,225
Nuneaton and BedworthSlough5,5191,5372,17500003,712
 Total70,15417,20121,75706,2972461,68147,182

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Warwickshire NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North WarwickshireAtherstone Central3,1409959813903602,051
North WarwickshireAtherstone North2,7861,0746534204901,818
North WarwickshireAtherstone South and Mancetter2,8961,1386853003701,890
North WarwickshireBaddesley and Grendon3,2041,2867402803802,092
North WarwickshireColeshill North2,6101,0096055503401,703
North WarwickshireColeshill South2,6031,1285092104201,700
North WarwickshireCurdworth2,5621,3812313202901,673
North WarwickshireDordon2,5698397744102301,677
North WarwickshireFillongley2,6251,2474023103301,713
North WarwickshireHurley and Wood End3,1141,1707904203002,032
North WarwickshireKingsbury3,0021,2686243303501,960
North WarwickshireNewton Regis and Warton2,8231,2894852504301,842
North WarwickshirePolesworth East2,8359697926002901,850
North WarwickshirePolesworth West2,7861,1006504402501,819
North WarwickshireWater Orton2,7701,2764524603401,808
Nuneaton and BedworthBede5,3641,7091,59311808103,501
Nuneaton and BedworthExhall6,4362,1201,772108020104,201
Nuneaton and BedworthHeath5,9922,0971,7234404703,911
Nuneaton and BedworthPoplar6,4721,7472,3289705304,225
Nuneaton and BedworthSlough5,6862,0201,5609204003,712
 Total70,15426,86218,3491,0280939047,182

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Warwickshire North

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Warwickshire North.

Warwickshire NorthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North WarwickshireAtherstone Central3,14093196140605802,050
North WarwickshireAtherstone North2,7861,01863543536901,818
North WarwickshireAtherstone South and Mancetter2,8961,07966731555801,890
North WarwickshireBaddesley and Grendon3,2041,22172029616102,092
North WarwickshireColeshill North2,61095658856505301,703
North WarwickshireColeshill South2,6031,07549222506101,700
North WarwickshireCurdworth2,5621,32922033454601,673
North WarwickshireDordon2,56978775842494101,677
North WarwickshireFillongley2,6251,19438532505201,713
North WarwickshireHurley and Wood End3,1141,10777043605202,032
North WarwickshireKingsbury3,0021,20760534575601,959
North WarwickshireNewton Regis and Warton2,8231,23246726546301,842
North WarwickshirePolesworth East2,83591277461544901,850
North WarwickshirePolesworth West2,7861,04463245534501,819
North WarwickshireWater Orton2,7701,22043447535401,808
Nuneaton and BedworthBede5,3641,6001,55912010311903,501
Nuneaton and BedworthExhall6,4361,9901,73111012324704,201
Nuneaton and BedworthHeath5,9921,9761,685461159003,912
Nuneaton and BedworthPoplar6,4721,6162,287991249904,225
Nuneaton and BedworthSlough5,6861,9051,524941098103,713
 Total70,15425,39917,8941,0531,3781,454047,178

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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