Weaver Vale: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Weaver Vale: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Mike Amesbury  (LAB)
County/Area: Cheshire (North West)
Electorate: 69,016
Turnout: 73.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB26,06651.5%50.5%
CON22,13843.7%40.5%
LIB1,6233.2%3.3%
Green7861.6%2.7%
UKIP00.0%3.0%
LAB Majority3,9287.8%Pred Maj 10.0%
Chance of
winning
LAB
66%
CON
34%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Weaver Vale : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Weaver Vale constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position3° Left6° Left
National Position2° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %52%54%52%
British Identity28%28%29%
Good Health49%46%48%
UK Born96%92%88%
Good Education40%37%39%
Good Job52%49%51%
High SEC53%48%51%
Average Age49.648.648.5
ABC1 Class53%50%53%

Weaver Vale ranks #366 for "Leave", #406 for "Right" and #337 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Weaver Vale: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Weaver Vale: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Weaver Vale

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Weaver Vale at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Weaver Vale. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Weaver ValeActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Cheshire West and ChesterDavenham and Moulton20159,5166,5297981,89400
Cheshire West and ChesterFrodsham20154,6342,7402420830970
Cheshire West and ChesterGowy20151,3673671462111510
Cheshire West and ChesterHartford and Greenbank20154,5232,5185198544720
Cheshire West and ChesterHelsby20151,5111,06413401910
Cheshire West and ChesterKingsley20151,5205002132922200
Cheshire West and ChesterWeaver and Cuddington20158,9545,1209281,3578201,764
Cheshire West and ChesterWinnington and Castle20152,3403,394305588391220
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Over and Verdin20154,7466,1172,0001,0596960
Cheshire West and ChesterWitton and Rudheath20152,1463,366365000
HaltonBeechwood20155519623003261130
HaltonDaresbury20151,473919195000
HaltonHalton Lea20152562,281038900
HaltonNorton North20156301,80354642800
HaltonNorton South20152412,3758135500
HaltonWindmill Hill20120322280095

Weaver ValeTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire West and ChesterDavenham and Moulton6,3932,4021,648201478004,729
Cheshire West and ChesterFrodsham7,0612,5711,52013404615385,224
Cheshire West and ChesterGowy8343761014058420617
Cheshire West and ChesterHartford and Greenbank6,5402,4631,37128346525704,839
Cheshire West and ChesterHelsby3,8741,4931,052132018902,866
Cheshire West and ChesterKingsley3,2711,34044118825719402,420
Cheshire West and ChesterWeaver and Cuddington5,7962,0271,1592103071863994,288
Cheshire West and ChesterWinnington and Castle7,0391,6842,4422194232811585,207
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Over and Verdin9142202839349320677
Cheshire West and ChesterWitton and Rudheath2,8117591,1911290002,079
HaltonBeechwood2,85051690128130510602,109
HaltonDaresbury3,4861,4699161940002,579
HaltonHalton Lea5,1823352,9890510003,834
HaltonNorton North5,2207142,044619485003,862
HaltonNorton South5,2613073,029103453003,892
HaltonWindmill Hill1,87601,00487002961,387
 Total68,40818,67622,0912,9133,7901,7481,39150,609

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Weaver ValeEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire West and ChesterDavenham and Moulton6,4502,7021,8849305204,731
Cheshire West and ChesterFrodsham7,1242,7512,084204018605,225
Cheshire West and ChesterGowy841412177170110617
Cheshire West and ChesterHartford and Greenbank6,5982,7971,751191010004,839
Cheshire West and ChesterHelsby3,9081,4861,16414707002,867
Cheshire West and ChesterKingsley3,3001,5187579704802,420
Cheshire West and ChesterWeaver and Cuddington5,8482,3531,67617808104,288
Cheshire West and ChesterWinnington and Castle7,1021,9732,920171014405,208
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Over and Verdin922290346310100677
Cheshire West and ChesterWitton and Rudheath2,8367981,221520902,080
HaltonBeechwood2,8757771,2238402602,110
HaltonDaresbury3,5171,5229757001202,579
HaltonHalton Lea5,2286113,207100603,834
HaltonNorton North5,2661,2442,41718701403,862
HaltonNorton South5,3087173,110590603,892
HaltonWindmill Hill1,8931851,1543601201,387
 Total68,40822,13626,0661,6270787050,609

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Weaver Vale

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Weaver Vale.

Weaver ValePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Cheshire West and ChesterDavenham and Moulton6,4502,5451,8369614510804,730
Cheshire West and ChesterFrodsham7,1242,5782,03120716124805,225
Cheshire West and ChesterGowy8413921711719180617
Cheshire West and ChesterHartford and Greenbank6,5982,6371,70219414915804,840
Cheshire West and ChesterHelsby3,9081,3911,1351498810402,867
Cheshire West and ChesterKingsley3,3001,43873398747702,420
Cheshire West and ChesterWeaver and Cuddington5,8482,2111,63318013213204,288
Cheshire West and ChesterWinnington and Castle7,1021,8012,86717416020605,208
Cheshire West and ChesterWinsford Over and Verdin9222683393121180677
Cheshire West and ChesterWitton and Rudheath2,8367291,20053643402,080
HaltonBeechwood2,8757071,20285655102,110
HaltonDaresbury3,5171,43794971794302,579
HaltonHalton Lea5,2285103,168121004503,835
HaltonNorton North5,2661,1162,3781891196003,862
HaltonNorton South5,3085983,071611124903,891
HaltonWindmill Hill1,8931541,14037322401,387
 Total68,40820,51225,5551,6541,5201,375050,616

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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