Wells: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Wells: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: James Heappey  (CON)
County/Area: Somerset (South West)
Electorate: 82,449
Turnout: 73.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON30,48850.1%46.4%
LIB22,90637.6%37.7%
LAB7,12911.7%12.1%
OTH3200.5%1.0%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
Green00.0%0.5%
CON Majority7,58212.5%Pred Maj 8.7%
Chance of
winning
CON
69%
LIB
29%
LAB
3%
OTH
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Wells : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Wells constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position3° Right1° Right
National Position1° Int1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %53%53%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health46%47%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education38%40%39%
Good Job48%50%51%
High SEC51%52%51%
Average Age52.650.548.5
ABC1 Class50%54%53%

Wells ranks #329 for "Leave", #284 for "Right" and #402 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Wells: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Wells: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Wells

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Wells at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Wells. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

WellsActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
MendipAshwick, Chilcompton and Stratton20152,24801,05457800
MendipChewton Mendip and Ston Easton2015-100000
MendipCroscombe and Pilton20158540621000
MendipGlastonbury St Benedict's2015549177004830
MendipGlastonbury St Edmund's2015340044704430
MendipGlastonbury St John's20156420005090
MendipGlastonbury St Mary's201550902711073420
MendipMoor20159160540000
MendipRodney and Westbury2015624067412300
MendipShepton East20151,7887441,443000
MendipShepton West20151,7891,2641,192000
MendipSt Cuthbert Out North201571501660202383
MendipStreet North20151,7620957000
MendipStreet South20151,53409740503925
MendipStreet West20157910435000
MendipWells Central2015494042402710
MendipWells St Cuthbert's20151,77896676338800
MendipWells St Thomas'20151,83302,29505460
MendipWookey and St Cuthbert Out West2015728051802110
SedgemoorAxevale20152,5613611,02105620
SedgemoorBerrow20157990443000
SedgemoorBurnham Central20153,97803,0148834450
SedgemoorBurnham North20154,75902,6888234220
SedgemoorCheddar and Shipham20155,3748092,82678300
SedgemoorHighbridge and Burnham Marine20152,3771,4151,78890701,835
SedgemoorKnoll20153,321092264700
SedgemoorWedmore and Mark20152,9664741,03439100

WellsTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
MendipAshwick, Chilcompton and Stratton3,7241,6530775425002,853
MendipChewton Mendip and Ston Easton1,6491,264000001,264
MendipCroscombe and Pilton1,71376005530001,313
MendipGlastonbury St Benedict's2,0006962240061201,532
MendipGlastonbury St Edmund's1,7093620476047201,310
MendipGlastonbury St John's1,59868300054101,224
MendipGlastonbury St Mary's1,588504026810633901,217
MendipMoor1,93993505510001,486
MendipRodney and Westbury1,6345500594108001,252
MendipShepton East4,1021,4145881,1410003,143
MendipShepton West3,7511,2118568070002,874
MendipSt Cuthbert Out North1,867698016201973741,431
MendipStreet North3,0621,52008260002,346
MendipStreet South4,4471,328084304358013,407
MendipStreet West1,57077604270001,203
MendipWells Central1,5034780411026201,151
MendipWells St Cuthbert's3,2321,130614485247002,476
MendipWells St Thomas'3,3771,01501,271030202,588
MendipWookey and St Cuthbert Out West1,9567490533021701,499
SedgemoorAxevale3,2801,429201570031402,514
SedgemoorBerrow1,69483504630001,298
SedgemoorBurnham Central5,5082,01801,52944822604,221
SedgemoorBurnham North4,8322,02701,14535118003,703
SedgemoorCheddar and Shipham5,2442,2053321,160321004,018
SedgemoorHighbridge and Burnham Marine5,7301,25474794347909684,391
SedgemoorKnoll2,9961,5590433304002,296
SedgemoorWedmore and Mark3,6991,728276602228002,834
 Total79,40430,7813,83816,9683,0174,0972,14360,844

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

WellsEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
MendipAshwick, Chilcompton and Stratton3,8671,6242041,0160092,853
MendipChewton Mendip and Ston Easton1,7121,048251890011,263
MendipCroscombe and Pilton1,779763255210041,313
MendipGlastonbury St Benedict's2,0776863434970061,532
MendipGlastonbury St Edmund's1,7754491527050031,309
MendipGlastonbury St John's1,6595972223980061,223
MendipGlastonbury St Mary's1,6495061715370031,217
MendipMoor2,013919325320031,486
MendipRodney and Westbury1,697625765450061,252
MendipShepton East4,2591,4025611,1740073,144
MendipShepton West3,8951,16177892400112,874
MendipSt Cuthbert Out North1,93970414954700311,431
MendipStreet North3,1791,2282069060052,345
MendipStreet South4,6181,4953491,49300693,406
MendipStreet West1,630704364570061,203
MendipWells Central1,561531795380031,151
MendipWells St Cuthbert's3,3561,0775848110042,476
MendipWells St Thomas'3,5071,1941171,2690082,588
MendipWookey and St Cuthbert Out West2,0317801146020021,498
SedgemoorAxevale3,4061,43129178100102,513
SedgemoorBerrow1,759758744630031,298
SedgemoorBurnham Central5,7191,9674011,8440084,220
SedgemoorBurnham North5,0172,0182421,4380053,703
SedgemoorCheddar and Shipham5,4452,1933761,43700124,018
SedgemoorHighbridge and Burnham Marine5,9501,4551,1431,71300814,392
SedgemoorKnoll3,1111,4711236930092,296
SedgemoorWedmore and Mark3,8411,6992568750052,835
 Total79,40430,4857,12922,9050032060,844

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Wells

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Wells.

WellsPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
MendipAshwick, Chilcompton and Stratton3,8671,5172151,0166815222,853
MendipChewton Mendip and Ston Easton1,7121,0013018930771,264
MendipCroscombe and Pilton1,77971430521317101,313
MendipGlastonbury St Benedict's2,077628349497368131,531
MendipGlastonbury St Edmund's1,77540015770531791,309
MendipGlastonbury St John's1,659551227398296121,223
MendipGlastonbury St Mary's1,64946017653729691,217
MendipMoor2,01386338532358101,486
MendipRodney and Westbury1,69757881545306121,252
MendipShepton East4,2591,2845731,1747516223,144
MendipShepton West3,8951,0537899246815242,873
MendipSt Cuthbert Out North1,939650155547347381,431
MendipStreet North3,1791,1402159065612162,345
MendipStreet South4,6181,3673621,4938118853,406
MendipStreet West1,63065941457296121,204
MendipWells Central1,5614888353827681,150
MendipWells St Cuthbert's3,3569845948115913162,477
MendipWells St Thomas'3,5071,0971271,2696113202,587
MendipWookey and St Cuthbert Out West2,03172412060236891,499
SedgemoorAxevale3,4061,3373017816013222,514
SedgemoorBerrow1,7597097946331791,298
SedgemoorBurnham Central5,7191,8094171,84410022284,220
SedgemoorBurnham North5,0171,8792561,4388819223,702
SedgemoorCheddar and Shipham5,4452,0423921,4379521314,018
SedgemoorHighbridge and Burnham Marine5,9501,2901,1601,713104231014,391
SedgemoorKnoll3,1111,3851326935512202,297
SedgemoorWedmore and Mark3,8411,5932678756715182,835
 Total79,40428,2027,36622,9051,44531660560,839

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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