Westmorland and Lonsdale: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Westmorland and Lonsdale: Overview

 Prediction: LIB hold 

MP at 2017: Tim Farron  (LIB)
County/Area: Cumbria (North West)
Electorate: 66,391
Turnout: 77.9%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LIB23,68645.8%45.8%
CON22,90944.3%40.4%
LAB4,7839.3%9.7%
OTH3090.6%1.1%
UKIP00.0%2.5%
Green00.0%0.5%
LIB Majority7771.5%Pred Maj 5.5%
Chance of
winning
LIB
45%
CON
48%
LAB
7%
OTH
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Westmorland and Lonsdale : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Westmorland and Lonsdale constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLIBLABCON
Economic Position2° Right6° Left
National Position5° Int2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %47%54%52%
British Identity30%28%29%
Good Health47%46%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education45%37%39%
Good Job48%49%51%
High SEC54%48%51%
Average Age53.948.648.5
ABC1 Class52%50%53%

Westmorland and Lonsdale ranks #465 for "Leave", #290 for "Right" and #477 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Westmorland and Lonsdale: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Westmorland and Lonsdale: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Westmorland and Lonsdale

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Westmorland and Lonsdale at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Westmorland and Lonsdale. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Westmorland and LonsdaleActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
South LakelandAmbleside and Grasmere20156351711,00202680
South LakelandArnside and Beetham20151,0051681,35601950
South LakelandBurneside2015360864781031590
South LakelandBurton and Holme20151,23218676501040
South LakelandCartmel and Grange West2015462058201500
South LakelandConiston and Crake Valley20124180279000
South LakelandCrooklands201226705990350
South LakelandGrange North201551106231021550
South LakelandGrange South2015701027701630
South LakelandHawkshead201230504120550
South LakelandHolker201533506870750
South LakelandKendal Castle2014159044246580
South LakelandKendal Far Cross201492394790590
South LakelandKendal Fell20146611152701750
South LakelandKendal Heron Hill2014186404890570
South LakelandKendal Highgate20148715341301070
South LakelandKendal Kirkland201469694830450
South LakelandKendal Mintsfeet201480784310960
South LakelandKendal Nether201499515380580
South LakelandKendal Oxenholme and Natland2014281624770580
South LakelandKendal Parks2014230424250670
South LakelandKendal Romney2014120704230660
South LakelandKendal Stonecross20141374654078450
South LakelandKendal Strickland2014767340565870
South LakelandKendal Underley2014561143687754125
South LakelandLevens201245806350450
South LakelandLyth Valley201263350341000
South LakelandMilnthorpe201224505904700
South LakelandSedbergh and Kirkby Lonsdale20151,6222051,61902690
South LakelandStaveley-in-Cartmel20123310436000
South LakelandStaveley-in-Westmorland201215305810720
South LakelandWhinfell201556005920920
South LakelandWindermere Applethwaite and Troutbeck2015686039901040
South LakelandWindermere Bowness North2015463725820710
South LakelandWindermere Bowness South2015498504200630
South LakelandWindermere Town20152531326310670

Westmorland and LonsdaleTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South LakelandAmbleside and Grasmere3,1817642061,205032202,497
South LakelandArnside and Beetham3,2359371571,264018202,540
South LakelandBurneside1,5523708849110616301,218
South LakelandBurton and Holme2,9831,261190783010602,340
South LakelandCartmel and Grange West1,4774490565014601,160
South LakelandConiston and Crake Valley1,0594980333000831
South LakelandCrooklands1,722400089805201,350
South LakelandGrange North1,69648905969814801,331
South LakelandGrange South1,3676590260015301,072
South LakelandHawkshead1,341416056207501,053
South LakelandHolker1,588381078008501,246
South LakelandKendal Castle1,3672420673708801,073
South LakelandKendal Far Cross1,832198841,029012701,438
South LakelandKendal Fell1,765104175830027601,385
South LakelandKendal Heron Hill1,3992655769508101,098
South LakelandKendal Highgate1,800162284768019901,413
South LakelandKendal Kirkland1,68113713795708901,320
South LakelandKendal Mintsfeet1,618148145799017801,270
South LakelandKendal Nether1,74318294986010601,368
South LakelandKendal Oxenholme and Natland1,6274099069408401,277
South LakelandKendal Parks1,67139572729011501,311
South LakelandKendal Romney1,721239139841013101,350
South LakelandKendal Stonecross1,492190647471086201,171
South LakelandKendal Strickland1,54313012569511114901,210
South LakelandKendal Underley1,806100203657137962231,416
South LakelandLevens1,623513071105001,274
South LakelandLyth Valley1,762855684600001,383
South LakelandMilnthorpe1,722375090472001,351
South LakelandSedbergh and Kirkby Lonsdale4,9481,6952141,692028103,882
South LakelandStaveley-in-Cartmel1,50651006720001,182
South LakelandStaveley-in-Westmorland1,6622480940011701,305
South LakelandWhinfell1,514535056508801,188
South LakelandWindermere Applethwaite and Troutbeck1,7037710448011701,336
South LakelandWindermere Bowness North1,6385017863007701,286
South LakelandWindermere Bowness South1,7886786857208601,404
South LakelandWindermere Town1,72931716579108401,357
 Total65,86116,5232,90327,2227024,11322351,686

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Westmorland and LonsdaleEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South LakelandAmbleside and Grasmere3,2071,1292021,14800182,497
South LakelandArnside and Beetham3,2611,2381711,1220082,539
South LakelandBurneside1,5645781394970041,218
South LakelandBurton and Holme3,0071,2642358340072,340
South LakelandCartmel and Grange West1,489611504940051,160
South LakelandConiston and Crake Valley1,06848018330003831
South LakelandCrooklands1,736613466880031,350
South LakelandGrange North1,710657865820051,330
South LakelandGrange South1,378649443770021,072
South LakelandHawkshead1,352544284750051,052
South LakelandHolker1,6015159662500101,246
South LakelandKendal Castle1,3783931045740031,074
South LakelandKendal Far Cross1,8474102417830041,438
South LakelandKendal Fell1,7794392666740051,384
South LakelandKendal Heron Hill1,4104141485340031,099
South LakelandKendal Highgate1,8144452966670031,411
South LakelandKendal Kirkland1,6953132817230021,319
South LakelandKendal Mintsfeet1,6313972036640051,269
South LakelandKendal Nether1,7574801627220041,368
South LakelandKendal Oxenholme and Natland1,6405441335940051,276
South LakelandKendal Parks1,6845401486150071,310
South LakelandKendal Romney1,7354302576600031,350
South LakelandKendal Stonecross1,5044281595810031,171
South LakelandKendal Strickland1,5554121846090051,210
South LakelandKendal Underley1,821413267620001171,417
South LakelandLevens1,636641306020011,274
South LakelandLyth Valley1,776838584830031,382
South LakelandMilnthorpe1,736547657360041,352
South LakelandSedbergh and Kirkby Lonsdale4,9882,0422051,62600103,883
South LakelandStaveley-in-Cartmel1,518638285110051,182
South LakelandStaveley-in-Westmorland1,675508497400071,304
South LakelandWhinfell1,526665354820061,188
South LakelandWindermere Applethwaite and Troutbeck1,7177913350000121,336
South LakelandWindermere Bowness North1,651624745830051,286
South LakelandWindermere Bowness South1,802760775590091,405
South LakelandWindermere Town1,7435141666700071,357
 Total65,86122,9044,78423,6840030851,686

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Westmorland and Lonsdale

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Westmorland and Lonsdale.

Westmorland and LonsdalePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South LakelandAmbleside and Grasmere3,2071,0302121,1486314302,497
South LakelandArnside and Beetham3,2611,1371811,1226414212,539
South LakelandBurneside1,564530144497317101,219
South LakelandBurton and Holme3,0071,1712458345913192,341
South LakelandCartmel and Grange West1,48956555494296111,160
South LakelandConiston and Crake Valley1,068447213302157831
South LakelandCrooklands1,73655952688347101,350
South LakelandGrange North1,71060491582337121,329
South LakelandGrange South1,3786064837727671,071
South LakelandHawkshead1,35250232475266101,051
South LakelandHolker1,601466101625317161,246
South LakelandKendal Castle1,37835010857427681,073
South LakelandKendal Far Cross1,847353247783368111,438
South LakelandKendal Fell1,779384272674358121,385
South LakelandKendal Heron Hill1,41037015353428681,099
South LakelandKendal Highgate1,814389302667358101,411
South LakelandKendal Kirkland1,69526128672333791,319
South LakelandKendal Mintsfeet1,631347208664327111,269
South LakelandKendal Nether1,757426168722347111,368
South LakelandKendal Oxenholme and Natland1,640493138594327111,275
South LakelandKendal Parks1,684488153615337131,309
South LakelandKendal Romney1,735376263660347101,350
South LakelandKendal Stonecross1,50438216458129691,171
South LakelandKendal Strickland1,555364189609307111,210
South LakelandKendal Underley1,8213572736203681241,418
South LakelandLevens1,6365903560232771,273
South LakelandLyth Valley1,77678364483358101,383
South LakelandMilnthorpe1,73649371736347111,352
South LakelandSedbergh and Kirkby Lonsdale4,9881,8882211,6269721293,882
South LakelandStaveley-in-Cartmel1,51859133511306111,182
South LakelandStaveley-in-Westmorland1,67545654740337131,303
South LakelandWhinfell1,52661840482307121,189
South LakelandWindermere Applethwaite and Troutbeck1,71773839500347191,337
South LakelandWindermere Bowness North1,65157379583327111,285
South LakelandWindermere Bowness South1,80270483559358161,405
South LakelandWindermere Town1,743460172670347141,357
 Total65,86120,8514,99723,6841,29828356451,677

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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