Weston-Super-Mare: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Weston-Super-Mare: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: John Penrose  (CON)
County/Area: Bristol area (South West)
Electorate: 82,160
Turnout: 68.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON29,98253.1%50.1%
LAB18,43832.7%31.6%
LIB5,1759.2%9.2%
UKIP1,9323.4%6.4%
Green8881.6%2.7%
CON Majority11,54420.5%Pred Maj 18.5%
Chance of
winning
CON
80%
LAB
20%
LIB
1%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%

Weston-Super-Mare : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Weston-Super-Mare constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position3° Right1° Right
National Position7° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %59%53%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health43%47%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education36%40%39%
Good Job48%50%51%
High SEC50%52%51%
Average Age51.350.548.5
ABC1 Class49%54%53%

Weston-Super-Mare ranks #194 for "Leave", #278 for "Right" and #209 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Weston-Super-Mare: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Weston-Super-Mare: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Weston-Super-Mare

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Weston-Super-Mare at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Weston-Super-Mare. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Weston-Super-MareActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
North SomersetBanwell and Winscombe20153,67991965107721,479
North SomersetBlagdon and Churchill20151,439356005850
North SomersetCongresbury and Puxton2015787222001,2690
North SomersetHutton and Locking20153,7101,3860001,364
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Bournville20151,1772,80769500903
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Central20152,0801,2932,269000
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Hillside20151,6399183,7166543400
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Kewstoke20154,3331,5661,4651,14900
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Mid Worle20156275191845160135
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Milton20152,5412,6138327370914
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare North Worle20152,6711,5226411,11301,229
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare South Worle20153,3121,951686001,313
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Uphill20152,1051,3315129845051,818
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Winterstoke20151,9731,4895406900226
North SomersetWick St Lawrence and St Georges20151,03343326000529

Weston-Super-MareTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North SomersetBanwell and Winscombe5,7351,99649935304198034,070
North SomersetBlagdon and Churchill2,9051,2473080050702,062
North SomersetCongresbury and Puxton2,931719203001,15902,081
North SomersetHutton and Locking5,0602,0627700007583,590
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Bournville6,7581,0112,412597007764,796
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Central6,5131,7041,0591,8590004,622
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Hillside6,1969925552,24939620604,398
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Kewstoke6,1622,226804753590004,373
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Mid Worle3,15870958720858401532,241
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Milton6,6081,5601,60551145305614,690
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare North Worle6,4441,70297040970907834,573
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare South Worle5,7691,8671,100387007404,094
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Uphill6,1561,2688023085933041,0954,370
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Winterstoke5,4221,5441,16542354001773,849
North SomersetWick St Lawrence and St Georges3,6761,195501301006122,609
 Total79,49321,80213,3408,3583,8652,5956,45856,418

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Weston-Super-MareEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North SomersetBanwell and Winscombe5,9272,6869053304210704,070
North SomersetBlagdon and Churchill3,0021,387428127311602,061
North SomersetCongresbury and Puxton3,0291,24651478723602,081
North SomersetHutton and Locking5,2302,342979153902503,589
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Bournville6,9851,5782,6584071183404,795
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Central6,7322,1561,5237861075004,622
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Hillside6,4041,9641,27990013911504,397
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Kewstoke6,3692,5081,1824841801904,373
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Mid Worle3,2641,091772141234402,242
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Milton6,8302,2851,7613752185104,690
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare North Worle6,6602,4961,4153692801304,573
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare South Worle5,9632,2421,501253831504,094
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Uphill6,3632,4181,3732882147604,369
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Winterstoke5,6041,9691,3493271871803,850
North SomersetWick St Lawrence and St Georges3,7991,615798156301002,609
 Total79,49329,98318,4375,1741,932889056,418

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Weston-Super-Mare

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Weston-Super-Mare.

Weston-Super-MarePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
North SomersetBanwell and Winscombe5,9272,56286033216215304,069
North SomersetBlagdon and Churchill3,0021,3244051286413902,060
North SomersetCongresbury and Puxton3,0291,183491796826002,081
North SomersetHutton and Locking5,2302,2339401551966603,590
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Bournville6,9851,4322,6054102598904,795
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Central6,7322,0161,47278824310304,622
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Hillside6,4041,8311,23190226816504,397
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Kewstoke6,3692,3751,1344863096904,373
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Mid Worle3,2641,0237471423003002,242
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Milton6,8302,1431,70937835610404,690
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare North Worle6,6602,3571,3653714156504,573
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare South Worle5,9632,1181,4562552036204,094
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Uphill6,3632,2851,32529034312604,369
North SomersetWeston-super-Mare Winterstoke5,6041,8521,3073293006203,850
North SomersetWick St Lawrence and St Georges3,7991,5367691571074002,609
 Total79,49328,27017,8165,2023,5931,533056,414

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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