Wiltshire South West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Wiltshire South West: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Andrew Murrison  (CON)
County/Area: Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate: 76,898
Turnout: 71.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,84160.0%56.2%
LAB14,51526.5%26.9%
LIB5,3609.8%9.8%
Green1,4452.6%3.2%
OTH5901.1%1.5%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
CON Majority18,32633.5%Pred Maj 29.3%
Chance of
winning
CON
92%
LAB
8%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
UKIP
0%

Wiltshire South West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Wiltshire South West constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position6° Right1° Right
National Position8° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %59%53%52%
British Identity27%27%29%
Good Health47%47%48%
UK Born92%92%88%
Good Education38%40%39%
Good Job48%50%51%
High SEC51%52%51%
Average Age51.050.548.5
ABC1 Class52%54%53%

Wiltshire South West ranks #192 for "Leave", #197 for "Right" and #177 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Wiltshire South West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Wiltshire South West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Wiltshire South West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Wiltshire South West at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Wiltshire South West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Wiltshire South WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
WiltshireEthandune2013748182303000
WiltshireFovant and Chalke Valley2013-100000
WiltshireMere20133030015401,464
WiltshireNadder and East Knoyle2013831178032100
WiltshireSouthwick20135001374700481
WiltshireSummerham and Seend20139830045600
WiltshireTisbury20137240047300
WiltshireTrowbridge Adcroft2013170049729500
WiltshireTrowbridge Central201316714038224700
WiltshireTrowbridge Drynham20135040195000
WiltshireTrowbridge Grove20131420000842
WiltshireTrowbridge Lambrok20133070000662
WiltshireTrowbridge Park2013344014300369
WiltshireTrowbridge Paxcroft20132940560000
WiltshireWarminster Broadway20135690047300
WiltshireWarminster Copheap and Wylye20138090032500
WiltshireWarminster East2013526003520451
WiltshireWarminster West2013-100000
WiltshireWarminster Without20138430032100
WiltshireWestbury East2013195048600484
WiltshireWestbury North201311310749300199
WiltshireWestbury West2013110127471620394
WiltshireWinsley and Westwood2013599185671000

Wiltshire South WestTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireEthandune3,3741,5353736220002,530
WiltshireFovant and Chalke Valley1,3901,042000001,042
WiltshireMere3,2063790019301,8322,404
WiltshireNadder and East Knoyle3,0831,4443090558002,311
WiltshireSouthwick3,3311,072294101001,0312,498
WiltshireSummerham and Seend1,36870100325001,026
WiltshireTisbury3,2681,48200968002,450
WiltshireTrowbridge Adcroft3,38544801,311778002,537
WiltshireTrowbridge Central4,1825594691,280827003,135
WiltshireTrowbridge Drynham3,0381,64206350002,277
WiltshireTrowbridge Grove3,27235400002,0992,453
WiltshireTrowbridge Lambrok3,64586600001,8672,733
WiltshireTrowbridge Park3,5271,0630442001,1402,645
WiltshireTrowbridge Paxcroft3,13881001,5430002,353
WiltshireWarminster Broadway3,4381,408001,170002,578
WiltshireWarminster Copheap and Wylye3,8372,05200824002,876
WiltshireWarminster East3,9871,1830079201,0142,989
WiltshireWarminster West3,9062,928000002,928
WiltshireWarminster Without3,1101,68900643002,332
WiltshireWestbury East3,71746601,163001,1582,787
WiltshireWestbury North3,3943152991,376005552,545
WiltshireWestbury West4,15540847117460101,4613,115
WiltshireWinsley and Westwood277852696000207
 Total73,02823,9312,2418,7437,679012,15754,751

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Wiltshire South WestEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireEthandune3,5531,65551729805282,530
WiltshireFovant and Chalke Valley1,464897110240831,042
WiltshireMere3,3761,420732960100552,403
WiltshireNadder and East Knoyle3,2461,598527102073112,311
WiltshireSouthwick3,5081,524744141056332,498
WiltshireSummerham and Seend1,4407711943202541,026
WiltshireTisbury3,4411,7144661440115122,451
WiltshireTrowbridge Adcroft3,5641,069909489058122,537
WiltshireTrowbridge Central4,4041,2231,2175600118173,135
WiltshireTrowbridge Drynham3,1991,429473324042102,278
WiltshireTrowbridge Grove3,4451,1919941090100592,453
WiltshireTrowbridge Lambrok3,8381,539925145066582,733
WiltshireTrowbridge Park3,7141,488805241070402,644
WiltshireTrowbridge Paxcroft3,3041,26149955602972,352
WiltshireWarminster Broadway3,6201,786530182057232,578
WiltshireWarminster Copheap and Wylye4,0402,323356124048252,876
WiltshireWarminster East4,1981,814812215093552,989
WiltshireWarminster West4,1132,333333201035262,928
WiltshireWarminster Without3,2751,77839591057112,332
WiltshireWestbury East3,9141,328781546091402,786
WiltshireWestbury North3,5741,102833528053282,544
WiltshireWestbury West4,3751,4791,320170093523,114
WiltshireWinsley and Westwood2921174242051207
 Total73,02832,83914,5145,36001,44459054,751

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Wiltshire South West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Wiltshire South West.

Wiltshire South WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
WiltshireEthandune3,5531,5605272986065202,530
WiltshireFovant and Chalke Valley1,46485811424251381,042
WiltshireMere3,3761,3307419657112662,402
WiltshireNadder and East Knoyle3,2461,5115361025585222,311
WiltshireSouthwick3,5081,4307541415969452,498
WiltshireSummerham and Seend1,44073219832243091,025
WiltshireTisbury3,4411,62247614458128232,451
WiltshireTrowbridge Adcroft3,5649749194896071242,537
WiltshireTrowbridge Central4,4041,1051,22956074134323,134
WiltshireTrowbridge Drynham3,1991,3434823245454212,278
WiltshireTrowbridge Grove3,4451,0991,00410958113702,453
WiltshireTrowbridge Lambrok3,8381,4369361456580712,733
WiltshireTrowbridge Park3,7141,3898152416384522,644
WiltshireTrowbridge Paxcroft3,3041,1735085565641182,352
WiltshireWarminster Broadway3,6201,6895401826170352,577
WiltshireWarminster Copheap and Wylye4,0402,2153671246863382,875
WiltshireWarminster East4,1981,70282421571109692,990
WiltshireWarminster West4,1132,2233442017050402,928
WiltshireWarminster Without3,2751,690404915569222,331
WiltshireWestbury East3,9141,22379254666105532,785
WiltshireWestbury North3,5741,0068435286066402,543
WiltshireWestbury West4,3751,3621,33217074109673,114
WiltshireWinsley and Westwood2921094342562207
 Total73,02830,78114,7285,3601,2981,72684754,740

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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