Winchester: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Winchester: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Steve Brine  (CON)
County/Area: Hampshire (South East)
Electorate: 72,497
Turnout: 78.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON29,72952.0%49.0%
LIB19,73034.5%34.6%
LAB6,00710.5%10.0%
Green8461.5%2.5%
UKIP6951.2%3.9%
OTH1490.3%0.1%
CON Majority9,99917.5%Pred Maj 14.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
78%
LIB
20%
LAB
2%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Winchester : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Winchester constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position6° Right4° Right
National Position8° Int3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %39%52%52%
British Identity33%29%29%
Good Health53%49%48%
UK Born90%88%88%
Good Education55%43%39%
Good Job64%56%51%
High SEC67%57%51%
Average Age50.149.248.5
ABC1 Class71%60%53%

Winchester ranks #562 for "Leave", #206 for "Right" and #492 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Winchester: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Winchester: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Winchester

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Winchester at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Winchester. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

WinchesterActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
EastleighChandler's Ford East201436414370133000
EastleighChandler's Ford West201447212298132900
EastleighHiltingbury East201494515252730500
EastleighHiltingbury West201492115157126200
WinchesterColden Common and Twyford20151,4102781,24337300
WinchesterCompton and Otterbourne20151,61813578016100
WinchesterItchen Valley20151,02355201000
WinchesterKings Worthy2014500109829206074
WinchesterLittleton and Harestock20151,144156931000
WinchesterOlivers Battery and Badger Farm201448913085020800
WinchesterSparsholt201448230201000
WinchesterSt Barnabas20151,7523351,23403390
WinchesterSt Bartholomew20151,4743541,14306390
WinchesterSt John and All Saints201582672258534729272
WinchesterSt Luke20156453541,19902380
WinchesterSt Michael20151,8143948671514190
WinchesterSt Paul20151,0913241,3161343800
WinchesterThe Alresfords20152,0753931,432000
WinchesterWonston and Micheldever20152,133302994000

WinchesterTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
EastleighChandler's Ford East3,6476662611,282603002,812
EastleighChandler's Ford West4,5768752261,818610003,529
EastleighHiltingbury East3,8861,468236819474002,997
EastleighHiltingbury West4,1761,557255965443003,220
WinchesterColden Common and Twyford4,1921,3802721,216365003,233
WinchesterCompton and Otterbourne3,1601,464122706146002,438
WinchesterItchen Valley1,445891481750001,114
WinchesterKings Worthy3,3257461631,23730701102,563
WinchesterLittleton and Harestock2,7091,0711468720002,089
WinchesterOlivers Battery and Badger Farm3,0836931841,205295002,377
WinchesterSparsholt1,474768483200001,136
WinchesterSt Barnabas4,7341,7473341,231033803,650
WinchesterSt Bartholomew4,8291,5203651,179065903,723
WinchesterSt John and All Saints4,7701,068934757449378933,679
WinchesterSt Luke4,8099825391,825036203,708
WinchesterSt Michael5,1301,96942894116445503,957
WinchesterSt Paul5,0211,3023871,57016045303,872
WinchesterThe Alresfords4,8421,9873761,3710003,734
WinchesterWonston and Micheldever4,3122,0682939640003,325
 Total74,12024,2225,61720,4534,0162,64520357,156

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

WinchesterEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
EastleighChandler's Ford East3,5671,2783291,068134222,813
EastleighChandler's Ford West4,4761,6793551,397842113,528
EastleighHiltingbury East3,8011,83124486551332,997
EastleighHiltingbury West4,0851,9192271,02544233,220
WinchesterColden Common and Twyford4,1001,7213301,12048773,233
WinchesterCompton and Otterbourne3,0911,59514168314242,439
WinchesterItchen Valley1,4138205921815211,115
WinchesterKings Worthy3,2521,310180987317482,563
WinchesterLittleton and Harestock2,6501,13711280232432,090
WinchesterOlivers Battery and Badger Farm3,0151,0042021,115272912,378
WinchesterSparsholt1,442746453377021,137
WinchesterSt Barnabas4,6301,9513621,236158143,649
WinchesterSt Bartholomew4,7231,7355321,282117133,724
WinchesterSt John and All Saints4,6661,5028771,05985119373,679
WinchesterSt Luke4,7041,3016921,5831910863,709
WinchesterSt Michael5,0182,1624441,1851514933,958
WinchesterSt Paul4,9111,7553791,5861413533,872
WinchesterThe Alresfords4,7362,1722921,219311733,734
WinchesterWonston and Micheldever4,2182,11020696429883,325
 Total74,12029,7286,00819,73169684815257,156

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Winchester

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Winchester.

WinchesterPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
EastleighChandler's Ford East3,5671,1933111,0692083102,812
EastleighChandler's Ford West4,4761,5733361,3991793933,529
EastleighHiltingbury East3,8011,7412318661263212,997
EastleighHiltingbury West4,0851,8222151,0261233313,220
WinchesterColden Common and Twyford4,1001,6243121,1221344023,234
WinchesterCompton and Otterbourne3,0911,522133684742512,439
WinchesterItchen Valley1,41378656218421201,114
WinchesterKings Worthy3,2521,23317098911941122,564
WinchesterLittleton and Harestock2,6501,074106803832412,091
WinchesterOlivers Battery and Badger Farm3,0159321911,116865202,377
WinchesterSparsholt1,44271243337341101,137
WinchesterSt Barnabas4,6301,8413421,23810911813,649
WinchesterSt Bartholomew4,7231,6235031,28410321013,724
WinchesterSt John and All Saints4,6661,3918371,06121216893,678
WinchesterSt Luke4,7041,1896541,58512915013,708
WinchesterSt Michael5,0182,0434201,18711918913,959
WinchesterSt Paul4,9111,6383581,58811317313,871
WinchesterThe Alresfords4,7362,0592761,2211245313,734
WinchesterWonston and Micheldever4,2182,0101959661134023,326
 Total74,12028,0065,68919,7592,2301,4413857,163

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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