Windsor: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Windsor: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Adam Afriyie  (CON)
County/Area: Berkshire (South East)
Electorate: 73,595
Turnout: 73.3%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON34,71864.4%60.7%
LAB12,33422.9%23.3%
LIB5,43410.1%10.1%
Green1,4352.7%3.2%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority22,38441.5%Pred Maj 37.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
95%
LAB
4%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%
OTH
0%

Windsor : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Windsor constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right4° Right
National Position3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %46%52%52%
British Identity32%29%29%
Good Health56%49%48%
UK Born83%88%88%
Good Education49%43%39%
Good Job67%56%51%
High SEC68%57%51%
Average Age48.649.248.5
ABC1 Class72%60%53%

Windsor ranks #485 for "Leave", #113 for "Right" and #398 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Windsor: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Windsor: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Windsor

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Windsor at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Windsor. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

WindsorActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Bracknell ForestAscot20153,52373952103850
Bracknell ForestBinfield with Warfield20158,7252,6930001,280
Bracknell ForestWarfield Harvest Ride20157,6251,10000710852
Bracknell ForestWinkfield and Cranbourne20153,66153906433480
SloughColnbrook with Poyle2015964779047600
Windsor and MaidenheadAscot and Cheapside20153,99630572103470
Windsor and MaidenheadCastle Without20155,3031,4801,60700790
Windsor and MaidenheadClewer East20152,4824511,09542200
Windsor and MaidenheadClewer North20154,7227180004,188
Windsor and MaidenheadClewer South20152,1114105367500189
Windsor and MaidenheadDatchet20152,807523898000
Windsor and MaidenheadEton Wick2015657358000290
Windsor and MaidenheadEton and Castle20155030460000
Windsor and MaidenheadHorton and Wraysbury20153,25740435500743
Windsor and MaidenheadOld Windsor20151,041281040603,468
Windsor and MaidenheadPark20152,880380700480290319
Windsor and MaidenheadSunningdale20153,828277635000
Windsor and MaidenheadSunninghill and South Ascot20155,4995041,120492542604

WindsorTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Bracknell ForestAscot3,8842,075435307022703,044
Bracknell ForestBinfield with Warfield5,8453,1489720004624,582
Bracknell ForestWarfield Harvest Ride5,4373,159456002943534,262
Bracknell ForestWinkfield and Cranbourne3,2251,783262031316902,527
SloughColnbrook with Poyle4,1371,4091,1380696003,243
Windsor and MaidenheadAscot and Cheapside3,8032,218169400019302,980
Windsor and MaidenheadCastle Without4,6692,114590641003153,660
Windsor and MaidenheadClewer East3,6651,602291707272002,872
Windsor and MaidenheadClewer North5,1881,9943030001,7694,066
Windsor and MaidenheadClewer South3,5651,47628737552401322,794
Windsor and MaidenheadDatchet3,2901,7123195480002,579
Windsor and MaidenheadEton Wick1,5195993270002651,191
Windsor and MaidenheadEton and Castle1,88777307060001,479
Windsor and MaidenheadHorton and Wraysbury3,4021,825226199004162,666
Windsor and MaidenheadOld Windsor3,368529143020601,7622,640
Windsor and MaidenheadPark3,5701,5962113882661611772,799
Windsor and MaidenheadSunningdale3,6162,2891663800002,835
Windsor and MaidenheadSunninghill and South Ascot4,7262,3252134742082292553,704
 Total68,79632,6266,5085,1252,4851,2735,90653,923

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

WindsorEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Bracknell ForestAscot4,1552,071489331015303,044
Bracknell ForestBinfield with Warfield6,2533,1051,14229104304,581
Bracknell ForestWarfield Harvest Ride5,8163,038751299017404,262
Bracknell ForestWinkfield and Cranbourne3,4501,90842181011802,528
SloughColnbrook with Poyle4,4261,5151,6157503803,243
Windsor and MaidenheadAscot and Cheapside4,0682,176342334012802,980
Windsor and MaidenheadCastle Without4,9952,17782656908903,661
Windsor and MaidenheadClewer East3,9211,75959147504702,872
Windsor and MaidenheadClewer North5,5502,4311,26529207904,067
Windsor and MaidenheadClewer South3,8141,73072231502802,795
Windsor and MaidenheadDatchet3,5201,60956438602102,580
Windsor and MaidenheadEton Wick1,6257123966102201,191
Windsor and MaidenheadEton and Castle2,01976516646408501,480
Windsor and MaidenheadHorton and Wraysbury3,6391,88956917803102,667
Windsor and MaidenheadOld Windsor3,6031,3501,08914705302,639
Windsor and MaidenheadPark3,8191,817499363012002,799
Windsor and MaidenheadSunningdale3,8682,22229329902002,834
Windsor and MaidenheadSunninghill and South Ascot5,0562,447596474018703,704
 Total68,79634,72112,3365,43401,436053,923

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Windsor

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Windsor.

WindsorPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Bracknell ForestAscot4,1551,95750133172169143,044
Bracknell ForestBinfield with Warfield6,2532,9341,16029110867214,581
Bracknell ForestWarfield Harvest Ride5,8162,879767299101196204,262
Bracknell ForestWinkfield and Cranbourne3,4501,8144318160131122,529
SloughColnbrook with Poyle4,4261,3941,628757655153,243
Windsor and MaidenheadAscot and Cheapside4,0682,06535433470143142,980
Windsor and MaidenheadCastle Without4,9952,04084056986108173,660
Windsor and MaidenheadClewer East3,9211,6526024756862132,872
Windsor and MaidenheadClewer North5,5502,2791,28129296100194,067
Windsor and MaidenheadClewer South3,8141,6267333156642132,795
Windsor and MaidenheadDatchet3,5201,5135743866134122,580
Windsor and MaidenheadEton Wick1,62566840161282861,192
Windsor and MaidenheadEton and Castle2,019710172464359371,481
Windsor and MaidenheadHorton and Wraysbury3,6391,7905791786345122,667
Windsor and MaidenheadOld Windsor3,6031,2521,0991476267122,639
Windsor and MaidenheadPark3,8191,71351036366134132,799
Windsor and MaidenheadSunningdale3,8682,1163042996735132,834
Windsor and MaidenheadSunninghill and South Ascot5,0562,30961047487206173,703
 Total68,79632,71112,5465,4341,2721,71525053,928

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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