Witney: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Witney: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Robert Courts  (CON)
County/Area: Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate: 82,727
Turnout: 73.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON33,83955.5%52.5%
LAB12,59820.7%19.6%
LIB12,45720.4%20.5%
Green1,0531.7%2.9%
UKIP9801.6%4.5%
CON Majority21,24134.9%Pred Maj 32.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
90%
LAB
6%
LIB
4%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Witney : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Witney constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position5° Right4° Right
National Position1° Int3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %46%52%52%
British Identity30%29%29%
Good Health52%49%48%
UK Born92%88%88%
Good Education45%43%39%
Good Job57%56%51%
High SEC59%57%51%
Average Age50.349.248.5
ABC1 Class61%60%53%

Witney ranks #472 for "Leave", #216 for "Right" and #422 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Witney: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Witney: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Witney

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Witney at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Witney. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

WitneyActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
West OxfordshireAlvescot and Filkins201570910069102870
West OxfordshireAscott and Shipton2014478114750960
West OxfordshireBampton and Clanfield20151,3192161862842140
West OxfordshireBrize Norton and Shilton20143950000323
West OxfordshireBurford201449440084560
West OxfordshireCarterton North East20151,5283611533861300
West OxfordshireCarterton North West20151,3282701173711290
West OxfordshireCarterton South20151,3632541333421240
West OxfordshireChadlington and Churchill201245578370540
West OxfordshireCharlbury and Finstock20157901711,0181232550
West OxfordshireChipping Norton20151,7828871813092730
West OxfordshireDucklington20143371190151590
West OxfordshireEynsham and Cassington20151,5135576803944940
West OxfordshireFreeland and Hanborough201464420044301470
West OxfordshireHailey, Minster Lovell and Leafield20152,59473460303410
West OxfordshireKingham, Rollright and Enstone20151,4333371972041910
West OxfordshireMilton-under-Wychwood2012-100000
West OxfordshireNorth Leigh20124592060000
West OxfordshireStandlake, Aston and Stanton Harcourt20148401401372611030
West OxfordshireStonesfield and Tackley20151,44843029603340
West OxfordshireThe Bartons201438909814100
West OxfordshireWitney Central20151,1808131492251990
West OxfordshireWitney East20152,2741,0171823274190
West OxfordshireWitney North20151,1204191362593230
West OxfordshireWitney South20151,4976971715592480
West OxfordshireWitney West20151,3533161512411450
West OxfordshireWoodstock and Bladon20143259253010287309

WitneyTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
West OxfordshireAlvescot and Filkins1,3496859767998401,032
West OxfordshireAscott and Shipton1,487712170112014301,137
West OxfordshireBampton and Clanfield2,8071,27420918027420702,144
West OxfordshireBrize Norton and Shilton2,35498900008091,798
West OxfordshireBurford1,4037856401348901,072
West OxfordshireCarterton North East4,6812,13650521454018203,577
West OxfordshireCarterton North West3,3601,53931313643014902,567
West OxfordshireCarterton South3,1091,46127214336613302,375
West OxfordshireChadlington and Churchill1,4718191406709701,123
West OxfordshireCharlbury and Finstock2,77170915491411022902,116
West OxfordshireChipping Norton4,8781,93596319733529603,726
West OxfordshireDucklington1,616625221028010901,235
West OxfordshireEynsham and Cassington4,3661,38751162336145303,335
West OxfordshireFreeland and Hanborough3,1971,097341754025002,442
West OxfordshireHailey, Minster Lovell and Leafield3,0721,425403331018702,346
West OxfordshireKingham, Rollright and Enstone3,0511,41433219420118802,329
West OxfordshireMilton-under-Wychwood1,5361,173000001,173
West OxfordshireNorth Leigh1,47077534800001,123
West OxfordshireStandlake, Aston and Stanton Harcourt3,2051,38823122643117002,446
West OxfordshireStonesfield and Tackley3,0581,349400276031102,336
West OxfordshireThe Bartons1,5007100179257001,146
West OxfordshireWitney Central4,0141,41097117826923803,066
West OxfordshireWitney East5,9942,4681,10419835545504,580
West OxfordshireWitney North3,0221,14542913926533002,308
West OxfordshireWitney South4,7061,69679019463328103,594
West OxfordshireWitney West3,2411,51835516927016302,475
West OxfordshireWoodstock and Bladon3,0485241488541641404982,328
 Total79,76633,1489,4716,3455,7744,8841,30760,929

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

WitneyEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
West OxfordshireAlvescot and Filkins1,39970914714192601,032
West OxfordshireAscott and Shipton1,54271718620252701,137
West OxfordshireBampton and Clanfield2,9111,223440411383302,145
West OxfordshireBrize Norton and Shilton2,4411,12927338421001,798
West OxfordshireBurford1,455753114167122601,072
West OxfordshireCarterton North East4,8552,167624660972803,576
West OxfordshireCarterton North West3,4851,631390427952502,568
West OxfordshireCarterton South3,2241,5193184011142202,374
West OxfordshireChadlington and Churchill1,52672217919013301,125
West OxfordshireCharlbury and Finstock2,874850362817107802,117
West OxfordshireChipping Norton5,0591,924934747358703,727
West OxfordshireDucklington1,676717260207321801,234
West OxfordshireEynsham and Cassington4,5281,4328329224710203,335
West OxfordshireFreeland and Hanborough3,3161,215438711324702,443
West OxfordshireHailey, Minster Lovell and Leafield3,1861,45745440722502,345
West OxfordshireKingham, Rollright and Enstone3,1641,431358450197102,329
West OxfordshireMilton-under-Wychwood1,5939401081192401,173
West OxfordshireNorth Leigh1,525721260120131001,124
West OxfordshireStandlake, Aston and Stanton Harcourt3,3241,484417449583902,447
West OxfordshireStonesfield and Tackley3,1721,27450750644602,337
West OxfordshireThe Bartons1,55672413025332801,147
West OxfordshireWitney Central4,1631,525967449705503,066
West OxfordshireWitney East6,2172,4101,332727367404,579
West OxfordshireWitney North3,1341,179558467545002,308
West OxfordshireWitney South4,8811,6951,0486901124903,594
West OxfordshireWitney West3,3611,431499475393102,475
West OxfordshireWoodstock and Bladon3,161861463959143102,328
 Total79,76633,84012,59812,4589841,055060,929

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Witney

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Witney.

WitneyPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
West OxfordshireAlvescot and Filkins1,399678138142373701,032
West OxfordshireAscott and Shipton1,542683175203373901,137
West OxfordshireBampton and Clanfield2,9111,1584154121025802,145
West OxfordshireBrize Norton and Shilton2,4411,075257385522901,798
West OxfordshireBurford1,455721107168403701,073
West OxfordshireCarterton North East4,8552,0595876622006803,576
West OxfordshireCarterton North West3,4851,5543674281665302,568
West OxfordshireCarterton South3,2241,4472994021784702,373
West OxfordshireChadlington and Churchill1,526688168191334501,125
West OxfordshireCharlbury and Finstock2,8747863418187110102,117
West OxfordshireChipping Norton5,0591,81289074914613003,727
West OxfordshireDucklington1,676680245208693201,234
West OxfordshireEynsham and Cassington4,5281,33179392414714103,336
West OxfordshireFreeland and Hanborough3,3161,1414127121037402,442
West OxfordshireHailey, Minster Lovell and Leafield3,1861,386427408715202,344
West OxfordshireKingham, Rollright and Enstone3,1641,361337451849602,329
West OxfordshireMilton-under-Wychwood1,593905102120321501,174
West OxfordshireNorth Leigh1,525687247121472301,125
West OxfordshireStandlake, Aston and Stanton Harcourt3,3241,4103924501286602,446
West OxfordshireStonesfield and Tackley3,1721,204479507747302,337
West OxfordshireThe Bartons1,556689122254622001,147
West OxfordshireWitney Central4,1631,4339314511629003,067
West OxfordshireWitney East6,2172,2721,27872917312704,579
West OxfordshireWitney North3,1341,1095314681237702,308
West OxfordshireWitney South4,8811,5871,0066922199103,595
West OxfordshireWitney West3,3611,3564704761136002,475
West OxfordshireWoodstock and Bladon3,161791436960835802,328
 Total79,76632,00311,95212,4912,7521,739060,937

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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