Woking: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Woking: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Jonathan Lord  (CON)
County/Area: Surrey (South East)
Electorate: 76,170
Turnout: 72.5%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON29,90354.1%50.4%
LAB13,17923.9%24.2%
LIB9,71117.6%17.6%
UKIP1,1612.1%4.5%
Green1,0922.0%2.5%
OTH2000.4%0.8%
CON Majority16,72430.3%Pred Maj 26.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
85%
LAB
13%
LIB
2%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Woking : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Woking constituency, the 'South East' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth EastAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position6° Right4° Right
National Position2° Int3° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %44%52%52%
British Identity34%29%29%
Good Health52%49%48%
UK Born81%88%88%
Good Education49%43%39%
Good Job64%56%51%
High SEC65%57%51%
Average Age48.049.248.5
ABC1 Class68%60%53%

Woking ranks #507 for "Leave", #189 for "Right" and #437 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Woking: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Woking: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Woking

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Woking at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Woking. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

WokingActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
GuildfordNormandy20151,06815912300424
GuildfordPirbright2015857024800176
WokingBrookwood201246874123000
WokingByfleet20151,44531655844901,050
WokingGoldsworth East20151,59276685937700
WokingGoldsworth West201440912646723800
WokingHermitage and Knaphill South20151,1293027104011180
WokingHorsell East and Woodham20151,8492413612641400
WokingHorsell West20152,1173769873851989
WokingKingfield and Westfield201592244097139600
WokingKnaphill20152,6456595956173040
WokingMaybury and Sheerwater20151,0021,913214416248300
WokingMayford and Sutton Green20144965421417100
WokingMount Hermon East201487318628417100
WokingMount Hermon West201459917775417600
WokingOld Woking2015486176467240750
WokingPyrford20152,0761543663311400
WokingSt John's and Hook Heath20151,7442163201971540
WokingWest Byfleet20152,08434240031700

WokingTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
GuildfordNormandy2,109944141109003751,569
GuildfordPirbright2,5861,2870372002641,923
WokingBrookwood1,8049441492480001,341
WokingByfleet5,4271,52733459047501,1104,036
WokingGoldsworth East5,5971,844887995437004,163
WokingGoldsworth West3,5808782711,003511002,663
WokingHermitage and Knaphill South3,7401,18131674241912302,781
WokingHorsell East and Woodham3,3741,62521231723212302,509
WokingHorsell West5,1541,99335492936218683,832
WokingKingfield and Westfield3,8959794671,031420002,897
WokingKnaphill7,0152,86371364466832905,217
WokingMaybury and Sheerwater7,4621,3592,5942905643364075,550
WokingMayford and Sutton Green1,73668575295236001,291
WokingMount Hermon East3,5991,543329502302002,676
WokingMount Hermon West4,2551,1113281,399326003,164
WokingOld Woking2,2475622045402788701,671
WokingPyrford3,5451,78413231528512002,636
WokingSt John's and Hook Heath3,2331,59419729218014102,404
WokingWest Byfleet3,9301,938318372295002,923
 Total74,28826,6418,02110,9855,9901,4452,16455,246

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

WokingEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
GuildfordNormandy2,1621,050298164298201,569
GuildfordPirbright2,6521,3262392843913231,924
WokingBrookwood1,85087220524031751,342
WokingByfleet5,5642,22299857215425664,037
WokingGoldsworth East5,7391,9681,182865707174,163
WokingGoldsworth West3,6711,1596427151143042,664
WokingHermitage and Knaphill South3,8351,364619625769262,782
WokingHorsell East and Woodham3,4591,642409361266562,509
WokingHorsell West5,2852,1737497564210753,832
WokingKingfield and Westfield3,9941,2837816901043352,896
WokingKnaphill7,1932,9801,142737151195125,217
WokingMaybury and Sheerwater7,6511,7312,98858577145245,550
WokingMayford and Sutton Green1,78083718324126311,291
WokingMount Hermon East3,6901,632485500332612,677
WokingMount Hermon West4,3631,494672914344833,165
WokingOld Woking2,304743439359645871,670
WokingPyrford3,6351,816316409365722,636
WokingSt John's and Hook Heath3,3151,609370300368722,404
WokingWest Byfleet4,0302,002464393461432,922
 Total74,28829,90313,1819,7101,1601,09420255,246

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Woking

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Woking.

WokingPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
GuildfordNormandy2,1629913041646616271,568
GuildfordPirbright2,6521,2542462848423321,923
WokingBrookwood1,8508222102403524111,342
WokingByfleet5,5642,0711,01457224946854,037
WokingGoldsworth East5,7391,8131,19886516892264,162
WokingGoldsworth West3,6711,06065271517744162,664
WokingHermitage and Knaphill South3,8351,260630625142106192,782
WokingHorsell East and Woodham3,4591,5484193618578182,509
WokingHorsell West5,2852,030764756132127233,832
WokingKingfield and Westfield3,9941,17579269017248182,895
WokingKnaphill7,1932,7851,162737274222365,216
WokingMaybury and Sheerwater7,6511,5243,009585208174505,550
WokingMayford and Sutton Green1,780789188241561071,291
WokingMount Hermon East3,6901,5324955009640132,676
WokingMount Hermon West4,3631,37668491410964183,165
WokingOld Woking2,30468144535910367151,670
WokingPyrford3,6351,7183264099871142,636
WokingSt John's and Hook Heath3,3151,5193793009399132,403
WokingWest Byfleet4,0301,89347539311529172,922
 Total74,28827,84113,3929,7102,4621,38045855,243

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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