Worcestershire Mid: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Worcestershire Mid: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Nigel Huddleston  (CON)
County/Area: Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 76,065
Turnout: 72.4%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON35,96765.3%61.5%
LAB12,64122.9%23.3%
LIB3,4506.3%6.3%
UKIP1,6603.0%5.4%
Green1,3712.5%3.0%
OTH00.0%0.5%
CON Majority23,32642.3%Pred Maj 38.2%
Chance of
winning
CON
95%
LAB
5%
LIB
0%
UKIP
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Worcestershire Mid : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Worcestershire Mid constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position13° Right2° Right
National Position14° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %59%59%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health46%45%48%
UK Born94%89%88%
Good Education39%35%39%
Good Job52%48%51%
High SEC55%46%51%
Average Age51.848.748.5
ABC1 Class55%49%53%

Worcestershire Mid ranks #181 for "Leave", #49 for "Right" and #62 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Worcestershire Mid: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Worcestershire Mid: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Worcestershire Mid

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Worcestershire Mid at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Worcestershire Mid. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Worcestershire MidActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
WychavonBadsey2015681002790574
WychavonBengeworth20152,584009866870
WychavonBowbrook201587401,019000
WychavonBretforton and Offenham20156550840000
WychavonBroadway and Wickhamford20153,581000684326
WychavonDodderhill20159020445000
WychavonDrakes Broughton2015-100000
WychavonDroitwich Central201548634713032300
WychavonDroitwich East20152,78877553472400
WychavonDroitwich South East20153,6134947426132960
WychavonDroitwich South West20152,3396026636413010
WychavonDroitwich West20151,8801,433003810
WychavonEvesham North20151,68204567026160
WychavonEvesham South20152,6390009030
WychavonFladbury20151,061033802890
WychavonGreat Hampton2015607006242010
WychavonHartlebury2015943020800439
WychavonHarvington and Norton20151,1030003950
WychavonHoneybourne and Pebworth2015-100000
WychavonLittle Hampton20152,253008085340
WychavonLovett and North Claines20153,955082600739
WychavonNorton and Whittington2015-100000
WychavonOmbersley20151,0580329000
WychavonPinvin201560801,129000
WychavonThe Littletons20159510006180
WychavonUpton Snodsbury20151,3400372000

Worcestershire MidTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
WychavonBadsey2,1147080029005961,594
WychavonBengeworth4,1621,9050072750603,138
WychavonBowbrook2,12874108640001,605
WychavonBretforton and Offenham1,95764608290001,475
WychavonBroadway and Wickhamford3,5602,0940004001912,685
WychavonDodderhill1,95398604860001,472
WychavonDrakes Broughton1,8481,393000001,393
WychavonDroitwich Central2,020576411154383001,524
WychavonDroitwich East4,2091,835510351477003,173
WychavonDroitwich South East4,0241,90426039132315603,034
WychavonDroitwich South West3,7371,45037341139718702,818
WychavonDroitwich West4,1751,6021,2210032503,148
WychavonEvesham North3,9041,433038859852502,944
WychavonEvesham South4,1192,31400079203,106
WychavonFladbury2,1049970318027201,587
WychavonGreat Hampton1,8906040062120001,425
WychavonHartlebury2,0709260204004311,561
WychavonHarvington and Norton2,0171,12000040101,521
WychavonHoneybourne and Pebworth1,9431,465000001,465
WychavonLittle Hampton4,0291,9040068345103,038
WychavonLovett and North Claines4,2442,2930479004283,200
WychavonNorton and Whittington2,2391,688000001,688
WychavonOmbersley1,8201,04703250001,372
WychavonPinvin2,30260801,1280001,736
WychavonThe Littletons2,4711,12900073401,863
WychavonUpton Snodsbury2,0291,19703320001,529
 Total73,06834,5652,7756,6604,4994,9491,64655,094

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Worcestershire MidEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
WychavonBadsey2,20193848459842901,594
WychavonBengeworth4,3331,9627518521212803,138
WychavonBowbrook2,2151,01031226221901,605
WychavonBretforton and Offenham2,037877298233382901,475
WychavonBroadway and Wickhamford3,7062,081375131158202,684
WychavonDodderhill2,033998291158121301,472
WychavonDrakes Broughton1,9241,1871165053501,393
WychavonDroitwich Central2,103679617901201801,524
WychavonDroitwich East4,3821,8639622021133403,174
WychavonDroitwich South East4,1892,098589234694403,034
WychavonDroitwich South West3,8901,5308382541336302,818
WychavonDroitwich West4,3461,4811,45043849103,149
WychavonEvesham North4,0641,60782819319811702,943
WychavonEvesham South4,2882,1506531105214003,105
WychavonFladbury2,1901,09229114185501,587
WychavonGreat Hampton1,968767382651634801,425
WychavonHartlebury2,1551,09034583331101,562
WychavonHarvington and Norton2,1001,11528441126901,521
WychavonHoneybourne and Pebworth2,0231,21715445351501,466
WychavonLittle Hampton4,1941,9097717117511203,038
WychavonLovett and North Claines4,4182,368599177401603,200
WychavonNorton and Whittington2,3311,4681266822401,688
WychavonOmbersley1,8951,06416711620501,372
WychavonPinvin2,39697437835092401,735
WychavonThe Littletons2,5721,233395752213901,864
WychavonUpton Snodsbury2,1121,21018911641001,529
 Total73,06835,96812,6453,4521,6601,370055,094

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Worcestershire Mid

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Worcestershire Mid.

Worcestershire MidPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
WychavonBadsey2,201878490591223771,593
WychavonBengeworth4,3331,84376385287144153,137
WychavonBowbrook2,215949318262402781,604
WychavonBretforton and Offenham2,037821304233733771,475
WychavonBroadway and Wickhamford3,7061,9793861317996132,684
WychavonDodderhill2,033942297158472171,472
WychavonDrakes Broughton1,9241,13412150384271,392
WychavonDroitwich Central2,103621623901562671,523
WychavonDroitwich East4,3821,74397420218951153,174
WychavonDroitwich South East4,1891,98360123414260143,034
WychavonDroitwich South West3,8901,42384925420078132,817
WychavonDroitwich West4,3461,3621,46243159107153,148
WychavonEvesham North4,0641,496840193268132142,943
WychavonEvesham South4,2882,032665110126156153,104
WychavonFladbury2,1901,032297141466371,586
WychavonGreat Hampton1,968713388651975571,425
WychavonHartlebury2,1551,03135183701971,561
WychavonHarvington and Norton2,1001,05729041487771,520
WychavonHoneybourne and Pebworth2,0231,16216045702371,467
WychavonLittle Hampton4,1941,79478371248128143,038
WychavonLovett and North Claines4,4182,24761217711733153,201
WychavonNorton and Whittington2,3311,40413368423381,688
WychavonOmbersley1,8951,012172116531261,371
WychavonPinvin2,396908385350503381,734
WychavonThe Littletons2,5721,162402756714991,864
WychavonUpton Snodsbury2,1121,152195116411871,529
 Total73,06833,88012,8613,4522,9751,65725955,084

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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