Worcestershire West: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Worcestershire West: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Harriett Baldwin  (CON)
County/Area: Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 74,385
Turnout: 75.9%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON34,70361.5%58.4%
LAB13,37523.7%22.7%
LIB5,3079.4%9.5%
Green1,6052.8%4.0%
UKIP1,4812.6%5.5%
CON Majority21,32837.8%Pred Maj 35.7%
Chance of
winning
CON
93%
LAB
7%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Worcestershire West : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Worcestershire West constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position9° Right2° Right
National Position7° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %52%59%52%
British Identity29%28%29%
Good Health46%45%48%
UK Born95%89%88%
Good Education45%35%39%
Good Job56%48%51%
High SEC58%46%51%
Average Age54.248.748.5
ABC1 Class59%49%53%

Worcestershire West ranks #357 for "Leave", #120 for "Right" and #194 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Worcestershire West: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Worcestershire West: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Worcestershire West

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Worcestershire West at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Worcestershire West. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Worcestershire WestActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Malvern HillsAlfrick and Leigh20151,5530042101,942
Malvern HillsBaldwin2015-100000
Malvern HillsBroadheath20151,972053500724
Malvern HillsChase20153,42902,8567141,7870
Malvern HillsDyson Perrins20151,03300724971796
Malvern HillsHallow20153300000851
Malvern HillsKempsey20151,2932680002,534
Malvern HillsLindridge2015-100000
Malvern HillsLink20153,0691,4521,16279301,562
Malvern HillsLongdon20158900394000
Malvern HillsMartley2015768220001150
Malvern HillsMorton20153270000944
Malvern HillsPickersleigh20151,9971,2652,06060000
Malvern HillsPowick20151,33502,53734300
Malvern HillsPriory20151,68901,2032519970
Malvern HillsRipple20155890000535
Malvern HillsTeme Valley20157970030600
Malvern HillsTenbury20152,4056180000
Malvern HillsUpton and Hanley20152,0623580491301744
Malvern HillsWells20151,651000781828
Malvern HillsWest20151,7150002,7670
Malvern HillsWoodbury20151,0970002260
WychavonBredon2015-100000
WychavonEckington20151,1775180000
WychavonElmley Castle and Somerville20151,0130004920
WychavonPershore20153,9607713,4919340783
WychavonSouth Bredon Hill2015628141671000

Worcestershire WestTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Malvern HillsAlfrick and Leigh2,7848490023001,0622,141
Malvern HillsBaldwin1,6701,285000001,285
Malvern HillsBroadheath2,7501,2910350004742,115
Malvern HillsChase4,9111,47401,22830776803,777
Malvern HillsDyson Perrins3,189719005046765542,453
Malvern HillsHallow1,47731700008191,136
Malvern HillsKempsey3,1137561570001,4822,395
Malvern HillsLindridge1,7701,361000001,361
Malvern HillsLink4,8941,43768054437107323,764
Malvern HillsLongdon1,72191804060001,324
Malvern HillsMartley1,4137572170011301,087
Malvern HillsMorton1,62432100009281,249
Malvern HillsPickersleigh5,1521,3368471,379402003,964
Malvern HillsPowick2,96872301,374186002,283
Malvern HillsPriory3,2631,024072915260402,509
Malvern HillsRipple1,45658700005331,120
Malvern HillsTeme Valley1,58788200339001,221
Malvern HillsTenbury3,0121,84347400002,317
Malvern HillsUpton and Hanley3,3601,34723403211974862,585
Malvern HillsWells2,5589960004715001,967
Malvern HillsWest3,4121,0040001,62002,624
Malvern HillsWoodbury1,7061,08800022401,312
WychavonBredon2,0111,547000001,547
WychavonEckington2,1691,15951000001,669
WychavonElmley Castle and Somerville1,9571,01300049201,505
WychavonPershore5,6571,7343381,52840903434,352
WychavonSouth Bredon Hill1,8326151386570001,410
 Total73,41628,3833,5958,1953,2215,1657,91356,472

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Worcestershire WestEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Malvern HillsAlfrick and Leigh2,8211,43451689653802,142
Malvern HillsBaldwin1,6921,148752629701,285
Malvern HillsBroadheath2,7861,485381195322202,115
Malvern HillsChase4,9761,9888906418817103,778
Malvern HillsDyson Perrins3,2311,22378014316314402,453
Malvern HillsHallow1,4967213672981001,135
Malvern HillsKempsey3,1541,45581868401402,395
Malvern HillsLindridge1,7931,15412940142401,361
Malvern HillsLink4,9591,8211,3254121386803,764
Malvern HillsLongdon1,74495220116021001,325
Malvern HillsMartley1,43275826224142801,086
Malvern HillsMorton1,6458293672025801,249
Malvern HillsPickersleigh5,2201,6381,4536601654703,963
Malvern HillsPowick3,0071,2273765531012602,283
Malvern HillsPriory3,3061,3764264974816302,510
Malvern HillsRipple1,4758412352318301,120
Malvern HillsTeme Valley1,60890319023842101,221
Malvern HillsTenbury3,0521,628468102843502,317
Malvern HillsUpton and Hanley3,4041,6026541301227602,584
Malvern HillsWells2,5921,216475140213301,966
Malvern HillsWest3,4571,385653224236002,624
Malvern HillsWoodbury1,7291,0561782984101,312
WychavonBredon2,0381,325149595901,547
WychavonEckington2,1981,1714412722801,669
WychavonElmley Castle and Somerville1,9831,12920853209401,504
WychavonPershore5,7322,3721,0746971822804,353
WychavonSouth Bredon Hill1,85686728624311301,410
 Total73,41634,70413,3775,3071,4821,601056,472

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Worcestershire West

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Worcestershire West.

Worcestershire WestPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
Malvern HillsAlfrick and Leigh2,8211,368492901286302,141
Malvern HillsBaldwin1,6921,1097127601901,286
Malvern HillsBroadheath2,7861,420360196934602,115
Malvern HillsChase4,9761,87284864320021403,777
Malvern HillsDyson Perrins3,2311,14875314423617202,453
Malvern HillsHallow1,49668635530422301,136
Malvern HillsKempsey3,1541,382792691114102,395
Malvern HillsLindridge1,7931,11212241493701,361
Malvern HillsLink4,9591,7061,28441424911103,764
Malvern HillsLongdon1,744911190161392401,325
Malvern HillsMartley1,43272525025464001,086
Malvern HillsMorton1,64579135321622201,249
Malvern HillsPickersleigh5,2201,5171,4096622829203,962
Malvern HillsPowick3,0071,1573555541655102,282
Malvern HillsPriory3,3061,29940349811919102,510
Malvern HillsRipple1,47580722324511601,121
Malvern HillsTeme Valley1,608866180241183401,222
Malvern HillsTenbury3,0521,5574431031536202,318
Malvern HillsUpton and Hanley3,4041,52362613119810602,584
Malvern HillsWells2,5921,1564531416015601,966
Malvern HillsWest3,4571,3056242258039002,624
Malvern HillsWoodbury1,7291,01616830445501,313
WychavonBredon2,0381,27814160452401,548
WychavonEckington2,1981,12042328712701,669
WychavonElmley Castle and Somerville1,9831,083197546111001,505
WychavonPershore5,7322,2391,0266993117804,353
WychavonSouth Bredon Hill1,856824270244432901,410
 Total73,41632,97712,8115,3383,1162,233056,475

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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