Workington: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Workington: Overview

 Prediction: LAB hold 

MP at 2017: Sue Hayman  (LAB)
County/Area: Cumbria (North West)
Electorate: 60,256
Turnout: 69.2%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
LAB21,31751.1%52.9%
CON17,39241.7%38.9%
UKIP1,5563.7%5.7%
LIB1,1332.7%2.3%
OTH2780.7%0.0%
Green00.0%0.2%
LAB Majority3,9259.4%Pred Maj 14.0%
Chance of
winning
LAB
72%
CON
28%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
OTH
0%
Green
0%

Workington : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Workington constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerLABLABCON
Economic Position5° Left6° Left
National Position8° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%54%52%
British Identity26%28%29%
Good Health44%46%48%
UK Born98%92%88%
Good Education33%37%39%
Good Job40%49%51%
High SEC42%48%51%
Average Age51.548.648.5
ABC1 Class40%50%53%

Workington ranks #153 for "Leave", #444 for "Right" and #183 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Workington: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Workington: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Workington

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Workington at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Workington. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

WorkingtonActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
AllerdaleAll Saints201503,10404874421,821
AllerdaleAspatria201508990534140620
AllerdaleBoltons2015512000127444
AllerdaleBroughton St Bridget's201501,3930617357911
AllerdaleChristchurch20151,7571,29419202160
AllerdaleClifton20150541002240
AllerdaleEllen20155251,28703853720
AllerdaleEllenborough201501,96600264223
AllerdaleEwanrigg201501,5770298122145
AllerdaleFlimby201505000205510
AllerdaleHarrington201501,01617647680728
AllerdaleHolme20155860001970
AllerdaleMarsh2015638160001180
AllerdaleMoorclose201502,119001251,445
AllerdaleMoss Bay20150-30000
AllerdaleNetherhall201501,36008961530
AllerdaleSeaton201502,79402,9912910
AllerdaleSilloth201590800442203923
AllerdaleSolway2015455284001410
AllerdaleSt John's201503,396425001,391
AllerdaleSt Michael's201503,26008612440
AllerdaleStainburn2015310444019100
AllerdaleWampool20156790002370
AllerdaleWaver20158150002260
AllerdaleWharrels201555031800820

WorkingtonTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleAll Saints3,61301,36102131947982,566
AllerdaleAspatria2,539073904391155101,803
AllerdaleBoltons1,391467000116405988
AllerdaleBroughton St Bridget's3,135094604192436192,227
AllerdaleChristchurch2,49490066398011101,772
AllerdaleClifton1,1930599002480847
AllerdaleEllen2,442354869026025101,734
AllerdaleEllenborough2,82401,608002161822,006
AllerdaleEwanrigg2,61101,36502581061261,855
AllerdaleFlimby1,27505990246610906
AllerdaleHarrington2,3740692120324544961,686
AllerdaleHolme1,2726760002270903
AllerdaleMarsh1,203595149001100854
AllerdaleMoorclose3,75901,53400901,0462,670
AllerdaleMoss Bay3,73102,65000002,650
AllerdaleNetherhall2,3070925060910401,638
AllerdaleSeaton3,89301,27201,36113202,765
AllerdaleSilloth2,462641003121436521,748
AllerdaleSolway1,211445278001380861
AllerdaleSt John's4,01001,856232007602,848
AllerdaleSt Michael's3,88102,059054415402,757
AllerdaleStainburn1,286300429018500914
AllerdaleWampool1,2656660002320898
AllerdaleWaver1,3517510002080959
AllerdaleWharrels1,15247427400710819
 Total58,6746,26920,8674505,1703,3245,59441,674

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

WorkingtonEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleAll Saints3,7101,1531,25379490322,566
AllerdaleAspatria2,60778285555930181,803
AllerdaleBoltons1,429809109551014988
AllerdaleBroughton St Bridget's3,2201,11991898730202,228
AllerdaleChristchurch2,5619516851249041,773
AllerdaleClifton1,225251554142304846
AllerdaleEllen2,5087358683489091,735
AllerdaleEllenborough2,9005071,39123740112,006
AllerdaleEwanrigg2,6813811,348131040101,856
AllerdaleFlimby1,309259578135203905
AllerdaleHarrington2,43876574485730201,687
AllerdaleHolme1,306701163231402903
AllerdaleMarsh1,23558424021702854
AllerdaleMoorclose3,8608571,65172540362,670
AllerdaleMoss Bay3,8323232,24236370132,651
AllerdaleNetherhall2,36949596729144041,639
AllerdaleSeaton3,9981,0351,38972265042,765
AllerdaleSilloth2,5281,18441432980201,748
AllerdaleSolway1,244564265181104862
AllerdaleSt John's4,1189021,725152420282,849
AllerdaleSt Michael's3,9866001,94436170082,758
AllerdaleStainburn1,32142843554502915
AllerdaleWampool1,29972114620704898
AllerdaleWaver1,3877791589905960
AllerdaleWharrels1,183509277171203818
 Total58,67417,39421,3191,1351,555028041,674

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Workington

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Workington.

WorkingtonPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
AllerdaleAll Saints3,7101,0771,30667109702,566
AllerdaleAspatria2,60772989046133501,803
AllerdaleBoltons1,429780132462730988
AllerdaleBroughton St Bridget's3,2201,05396283123602,227
AllerdaleChristchurch2,56189971810547501,774
AllerdaleClifton1,225226568123920847
AllerdaleEllen2,50868489729122401,736
AllerdaleEllenborough2,9004481,42319111502,006
AllerdaleEwanrigg2,6813261,37711137401,855
AllerdaleFlimby1,309232592116820905
AllerdaleHarrington2,43871578072114501,686
AllerdaleHolme1,306674177193020902
AllerdaleMarsh1,235559253182220854
AllerdaleMoorclose3,8607781,70661117802,670
AllerdaleMoss Bay3,8322752,2713070402,650
AllerdaleNetherhall2,36944799224172401,639
AllerdaleSeaton3,9989531,43261313602,765
AllerdaleSilloth2,5281,13244827136501,748
AllerdaleSolway1,244539279152720862
AllerdaleSt John's4,1188181,785128110802,849
AllerdaleSt Michael's3,9865191,98630217602,758
AllerdaleStainburn1,32140144846020915
AllerdaleWampool1,299694161172420898
AllerdaleWaver1,38775117382620960
AllerdaleWharrels1,183485290142720818
 Total58,67416,19422,0469572,381103041,681

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
Powered by TigerLib (13-Jul-2017 11:48)