Wrekin, The: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Wrekin, The: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Mark Pritchard  (CON)
County/Area: Shropshire (West Midlands)
Electorate: 68,642
Turnout: 72.1%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON27,45155.4%51.6%
LAB17,88736.1%36.5%
UKIP1,6563.3%5.7%
LIB1,3452.7%2.7%
Green8041.6%2.1%
OTH3800.8%1.2%
CON Majority9,56419.3%Pred Maj 15.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
74%
LAB
26%
UKIP
0%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
OTH
0%

Wrekin, The : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Wrekin, The constituency, the 'West Midlands' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatWest MidlandsAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position8° Right2° Right
National Position12° Nat9° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %60%59%52%
British Identity27%28%29%
Good Health47%45%48%
UK Born92%89%88%
Good Education39%35%39%
Good Job52%48%51%
High SEC52%46%51%
Average Age48.748.748.5
ABC1 Class53%49%53%

Wrekin, The ranks #156 for "Leave", #135 for "Right" and #89 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Wrekin, The: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Wrekin, The: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Wrekin, The

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Wrekin, The at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Wrekin, The. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Wrekin, TheActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
ShropshireAlbrighton201369017302731190
ShropshireShifnal North2013446002340626
ShropshireShifnal South and Cosford20136580044300
Telford and WrekinAdmaston and Bratton201582231019830500
Telford and WrekinApley Castle201549435371421500
Telford and WrekinArleston2015324729027100
Telford and WrekinChurch Aston and Lilleshall20151,306230002500
Telford and WrekinCollege2015474665000396
Telford and WrekinDonnington20151,4761,81908342450
Telford and WrekinDothill201542729645336300
Telford and WrekinEdgmond and Ercall Magna20153,65669508304720
Telford and WrekinErcall2015936493031600
Telford and WrekinHadley and Leegomery20153,4705,538006110
Telford and WrekinHaygate20155625720226076
Telford and WrekinMuxton20154,1431,9840000
Telford and WrekinNewport North and West20152,31661347760001,268
Telford and WrekinNewport South and East20152,640609052801,025
Telford and WrekinOakengates and Ketley Bank20153,0683,91701,084382513
Telford and WrekinPark201558850603070104
Telford and WrekinShawbirch201551429960426300
Telford and WrekinWrockwardine2015980393033900

Wrekin, TheTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ShropshireAlbrighton3,3541,385347054823902,519
ShropshireShifnal North3,4798920046801,2522,612
ShropshireShifnal South and Cosford3,8001,706001,148002,854
Telford and WrekinAdmaston and Bratton2,200831313200308001,652
Telford and WrekinApley Castle2,348490350709213001,762
Telford and WrekinArleston2,3744369820365001,783
Telford and WrekinChurch Aston and Lilleshall2,1801,1972110022901,637
Telford and WrekinCollege2,4555697990004761,844
Telford and WrekinDonnington4,9701,2601,552071220903,733
Telford and WrekinDothill2,007418290444356001,508
Telford and WrekinEdgmond and Ercall Magna4,6772,272432051629303,513
Telford and WrekinErcall2,1418624540291001,607
Telford and WrekinHadley and Leegomery7,1841,9463,1060034305,395
Telford and WrekinHaygate2,26266567702670901,699
Telford and WrekinMuxton4,7492,4121,15500003,567
Telford and WrekinNewport North and West4,4331,46238730137908003,329
Telford and WrekinNewport South and East3,9531,632377032606342,969
Telford and WrekinOakengates and Ketley Bank1,0922813580993547820
Telford and WrekinPark1,935568489029601001,453
Telford and WrekinShawbirch2,331536312629274001,751
Telford and WrekinWrockwardine2,0188683480300001,516
 Total65,94222,68812,9392,2836,8661,3483,39949,523

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Wrekin, TheEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ShropshireAlbrighton3,4911,6835585113185112,519
ShropshireShifnal North3,6211,6247093514818782,612
ShropshireShifnal South and Cosford3,9562,03743110422340202,855
Telford and WrekinAdmaston and Bratton2,2901,02548087421071,651
Telford and WrekinApley Castle2,44485659926036571,763
Telford and WrekinArleston2,4716331,0431382651,782
Telford and WrekinChurch Aston and Lilleshall2,2691,2023238118851,637
Telford and WrekinCollege2,556753970441823361,844
Telford and WrekinDonnington5,1731,4341,9861818689203,733
Telford and WrekinDothill2,089725543149761331,509
Telford and WrekinEdgmond and Ercall Magna4,8692,5377291298125113,512
Telford and WrekinErcall2,2299535604142831,607
Telford and WrekinHadley and Leegomery7,4782,0233,1641257127145,397
Telford and WrekinHaygate2,355730855155828121,698
Telford and WrekinMuxton4,9432,3461,129323310173,567
Telford and WrekinNewport North and West4,6152,09390713510531583,329
Telford and WrekinNewport South and East4,1151,851893469441452,970
Telford and WrekinOakengates and Ketley Bank1,137351404438176820
Telford and WrekinPark2,0147026154578481,452
Telford and WrekinShawbirch2,426900561215521751,750
Telford and WrekinWrockwardine2,10199343119441991,515
 Total65,94227,45117,8901,3451,65280438049,523

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Wrekin, The

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Wrekin, The.

Wrekin, ThePredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
ShropshireAlbrighton3,4911,5885685119198232,519
ShropshireShifnal North3,6211,5257193521132902,612
ShropshireShifnal South and Cosford3,9561,92944210429155332,854
Telford and WrekinAdmaston and Bratton2,290963486878219151,652
Telford and WrekinApley Castle2,4447896062607814151,762
Telford and WrekinArleston2,4715661,0501312515131,782
Telford and WrekinChurch Aston and Lilleshall2,2691,14032985097131,637
Telford and WrekinCollege2,556683977446233451,844
Telford and WrekinDonnington5,1731,2932,00118275109383,734
Telford and WrekinDothill2,08966854914911221101,509
Telford and WrekinEdgmond and Ercall Magna4,8692,40474312182143283,512
Telford and WrekinErcall2,229892566418016111,606
Telford and WrekinHadley and Leegomery7,4781,8193,18512186155395,396
Telford and WrekinHaygate2,355666862159937201,699
Telford and WrekinMuxton4,9432,2111,1433211829343,567
Telford and WrekinNewport North and West4,6151,96792013518548743,329
Telford and WrekinNewport South and East4,1151,7399054616557592,971
Telford and WrekinOakengates and Ketley Bank1,1373204074582110820
Telford and WrekinPark2,0146476214511312151,453
Telford and WrekinShawbirch2,4268345682159426131,750
Telford and WrekinWrockwardine2,101936437198027161,515
 Total65,94225,57918,0841,3452,8371,06461449,523

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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