Wyre and Preston North: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Wyre and Preston North: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Ben Wallace  (CON)
County/Area: Lancashire (North West)
Electorate: 72,319
Turnout: 72.8%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON30,68458.3%55.1%
LAB18,43835.0%34.0%
LIB2,5514.8%4.9%
Green9731.8%3.0%
UKIP00.0%3.0%
CON Majority12,24623.3%Pred Maj 21.1%
Chance of
winning
CON
82%
LAB
18%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

Wyre and Preston North : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Wyre and Preston North constituency, the 'North West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatNorth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position8° Right6° Left
National Position7° Nat2° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %55%54%52%
British Identity31%28%29%
Good Health48%46%48%
UK Born95%92%88%
Good Education45%37%39%
Good Job58%49%51%
High SEC62%48%51%
Average Age52.848.648.5
ABC1 Class64%50%53%

Wyre and Preston North ranks #287 for "Leave", #143 for "Right" and #202 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Wyre and Preston North: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Wyre and Preston North: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Wyre and Preston North

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Wyre and Preston North at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Wyre and Preston North. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

Wyre and Preston NorthActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
PrestonCadley2014492430728000
PrestonCollege201588683615601580
PrestonGarrison20151,7531,35022702740
PrestonGreyfriars20152,1181,02841102420
PrestonPreston Rural East20151,8097430000
PrestonPreston Rural North20152,41029857063600
PrestonSharoe Green20151,4711,1962680249158
WyreBourne20152,9722,87607663600
WyreBreck20152,2991,034002940
WyreBrock with Catterall20152,7240006170
WyreCalder2015635000216369
WyreCarleton20152,7921,528003360
WyreGarstang20155,095697005293,182
WyreGreat Eccleston20152,795431007140
WyreHambleton and Stalmine20152,9691,011003350
WyreHardhorn with High Cross20156,2831,958007180
WyreMarsh Mill20154,2982,87008394130
WyreStanah20152,9981,501004110
WyreTithebarn20152,568683005800

Wyre and Preston NorthTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
PrestonCadley3,7438317261,2300002,787
PrestonCollege2,964960906169017102,206
PrestonGarrison5,3561,9401,494251030303,988
PrestonGreyfriars5,1302,1301,034413024303,820
PrestonPreston Rural East3,4361,81474500002,559
PrestonPreston Rural North5,3862,470305584652004,011
PrestonSharoe Green5,0351,6501,34230102791773,749
WyreBourne1,96362360301617501,462
WyreBreck3,0561,4426490018402,275
WyreBrock with Catterall3,3082,00800045502,463
WyreCalder1,7456760002303931,299
WyreCarleton3,6491,6298920019602,717
WyreGarstang5,1872,071283002151,2933,862
WyreGreat Eccleston3,1261,6512550042202,328
WyreHambleton and Stalmine3,4101,7475950019702,539
WyreHardhorn with High Cross4,8112,5127830028703,582
WyreMarsh Mill2,26786257501688301,688
WyreStanah3,7641,7118570023502,803
WyreTithebarn3,3631,6794460037902,504
 Total70,69930,40612,4902,9489813,9541,86352,642

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

Wyre and Preston NorthEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
PrestonCadley3,8291,1081,05659003302,787
PrestonCollege3,0321,02198615104902,207
PrestonGarrison5,4792,0161,69820507003,989
PrestonGreyfriars5,2482,1361,35028804703,821
PrestonPreston Rural East3,5151,7517365501702,559
PrestonPreston Rural North5,5092,66396333505104,012
PrestonSharoe Green5,1501,7351,70923906703,750
WyreBourne2,0086247713802901,462
WyreBreck3,1261,4127972304302,275
WyreBrock with Catterall3,3841,8674576607302,463
WyreCalder1,7857674027205901,300
WyreCarleton3,7331,5811,0534703602,717
WyreGarstang5,3062,2381,41915505003,862
WyreGreat Eccleston3,1981,6215586308702,329
WyreHambleton and Stalmine3,4881,6708031804702,538
WyreHardhorn with High Cross4,9212,3281,1227405903,583
WyreMarsh Mill2,3198697445102401,688
WyreStanah3,8501,7211,0022905102,803
WyreTithebarn3,4401,5578125308302,505
 Total70,69930,68518,4382,5520975052,642

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Wyre and Preston North

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Wyre and Preston North.

Wyre and Preston NorthPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
PrestonCadley3,8291,0191,028592846502,788
PrestonCollege3,032950964152667502,207
PrestonGarrison5,4791,8881,65720712011603,988
PrestonGreyfriars5,2482,0131,3112901159103,820
PrestonPreston Rural East3,5151,66971056774702,559
PrestonPreston Rural North5,5092,5349223371219804,012
PrestonSharoe Green5,1501,6151,67124111311103,751
WyreBourne2,00857775639444601,462
WyreBreck3,1261,33977424686902,274
WyreBrock with Catterall3,3841,788434677310102,463
WyreCalder1,78572538973397401,300
WyreCarleton3,7331,4941,02548826802,717
WyreGarstang5,3062,1141,3801571169503,862
WyreGreat Eccleston3,1981,546534647011402,328
WyreHambleton and Stalmine3,4881,58977719767702,538
WyreHardhorn with High Cross4,9212,2131,0867610810103,584
WyreMarsh Mill2,31981572752514401,689
WyreStanah3,8501,63197431848402,804
WyreTithebarn3,4401,477787547511202,505
 Total70,69928,99617,9062,5791,5821,588052,651

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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