Yeovil: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

Yeovil: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Marcus Fysh  (CON)
County/Area: Somerset (South West)
Electorate: 82,911
Turnout: 71.6%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON32,36954.5%50.7%
LIB17,64629.7%29.7%
LAB7,41812.5%12.9%
Green1,0521.8%2.3%
OTH9191.5%2.0%
UKIP00.0%2.4%
CON Majority14,72324.8%Pred Maj 21.0%
Chance of
winning
CON
85%
LIB
12%
LAB
3%
Green
0%
OTH
0%
UKIP
0%

Yeovil : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the Yeovil constituency, the 'South West' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatSouth WestAll GB
Party WinnerCONCONCON
Economic Position4° Right1° Right
National Position4° Nat1° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %58%53%52%
British Identity26%27%29%
Good Health45%47%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education36%40%39%
Good Job45%50%51%
High SEC48%52%51%
Average Age51.250.548.5
ABC1 Class47%54%53%

Yeovil ranks #199 for "Leave", #261 for "Right" and #290 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

Yeovil: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

Yeovil: Ward-by-ward

Workings for Yeovil

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of Yeovil at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of Yeovil. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

YeovilActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
South SomersetBlackdown2015923038824600
South SomersetBrympton20152,6284592,678000
South SomersetChard Avishayes201540214844000223
South SomersetChard Combe2015514045001480
South SomersetChard Crimchard20154450863000
South SomersetChard Holyrood20156700699000
South SomersetChard Jocelyn2015360023700596
South SomersetCoker20153,21902,745000
South SomersetCrewkerne20154,4827975,10301,9940
South SomersetEggwood20156870787000
South SomersetHamdon20156810905000
South SomersetIlminster20152,0483062,3616894600
South SomersetIvelchester2015600020600922
South SomersetNeroche2015893037131300
South SomersetParrett20157280785000
South SomersetSouth Petherton20151,34703,252000
South SomersetSt Michael's20156530699000
South SomersetTatworth and Forton2015552043500608
South SomersetWindwhistle2015818046919600
South SomersetYeovil Central20152,6621,2073,769000
South SomersetYeovil East20151,6371,3063,42770600
South SomersetYeovil South20155,8202,1034,294000
South SomersetYeovil West20152,8548933,78384400
South SomersetYeovil Without20154,3856614,73407470

YeovilTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South SomersetBlackdown1,7727570318202001,277
South SomersetBrympton5,5971,8383211,8730004,032
South SomersetChard Avishayes2,050490180536002721,478
South SomersetChard Combe1,6365450477015701,179
South SomersetChard Crimchard2,11051701,0030001,520
South SomersetChard Holyrood2,48687709150001,792
South SomersetChard Jocelyn1,8444010264006641,329
South SomersetCoker4,1031,59601,3610002,957
South SomersetCrewkerne6,0411,5762801,795070104,352
South SomersetEggwood1,86762707180001,345
South SomersetHamdon2,09464808610001,509
South SomersetIlminster4,6461,1691751,34839326303,348
South SomersetIvelchester3,3328340286001,2812,401
South SomersetNeroche1,8637600316266001,342
South SomersetParrett1,78962006690001,289
South SomersetSouth Petherton3,76079401,9160002,710
South SomersetSt Michael's1,78362106640001,285
South SomersetTatworth and Forton2,0555120404005641,480
South SomersetWindwhistle1,7827080406170001,284
South SomersetYeovil Central5,9251,4886752,1070004,270
South SomersetYeovil East5,8869817832,054423004,241
South SomersetYeovil South6,8282,3448471,7290004,920
South SomersetYeovil West5,9151,4534541,925430004,262
South SomersetYeovil Without5,2801,5852391,711027003,805
 Total82,44423,7413,95425,6561,8841,3912,78159,407

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

YeovilEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South SomersetBlackdown1,7829186927108101,276
South SomersetBrympton5,6292,1955431,232029344,033
South SomersetChard Avishayes2,06272029739709541,477
South SomersetChard Combe1,64564597353073101,178
South SomersetChard Crimchard2,1227931375770581,520
South SomersetChard Holyrood2,50097719959307161,792
South SomersetChard Jocelyn1,8547281543090191191,329
South SomersetCoker4,1261,821246854019182,958
South SomersetCrewkerne6,0752,2434471,3280308274,353
South SomersetEggwood1,8788057744201561,345
South SomersetHamdon2,10684875548024131,508
South SomersetIlminster4,6721,7783551,0310158253,347
South SomersetIvelchester3,3511,5561823830402402,401
South SomersetNeroche1,874978682810761,340
South SomersetParrett1,7997954641802281,289
South SomersetSouth Petherton3,7811,4271601,064038202,709
South SomersetSt Michael's1,79377691393013111,284
South SomersetTatworth and Forton2,0678801393350201061,480
South SomersetWindwhistle1,7928816630702091,283
South SomersetYeovil Central5,9591,9398581,404032364,269
South SomersetYeovil East5,9191,8309961,346029404,241
South SomersetYeovil South6,8672,6688731,329013364,919
South SomersetYeovil West5,9492,1207871,295030314,263
South SomersetYeovil Without5,3102,0464551,1560114343,805
 Total82,44432,3677,41717,64601,05291759,407

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for Yeovil

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of Yeovil.

YeovilPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
South SomersetBlackdown1,782870742713015161,276
South SomersetBrympton5,6292,0435591,2329650534,033
South SomersetChard Avishayes2,0626653033973517611,478
South SomersetChard Combe1,6456011023532879151,178
South SomersetChard Crimchard2,1227361435773613151,520
South SomersetChard Holyrood2,5009102065934316241,792
South SomersetChard Jocelyn1,85467815930932261251,329
South SomersetCoker4,1261,7102588547034322,958
South SomersetCrewkerne6,0752,0794641,328103331474,352
South SomersetEggwood1,878754824423222121,344
South SomersetHamdon2,106791815483632201,508
South SomersetIlminster4,6721,6523681,03180175413,347
South SomersetIvelchester3,3511,46619138357522512,400
South SomersetNeroche1,874928732813214121,340
South SomersetParrett1,799747514183129141,290
South SomersetSouth Petherton3,7811,3251711,0646452332,709
South SomersetSt Michael's1,793728963933020171,284
South SomersetTatworth and Forton2,06782414533535281131,480
South SomersetWindwhistle1,792833713073027151,283
South SomersetYeovil Central5,9591,7798751,40410154564,269
South SomersetYeovil East5,9191,6711,0131,34610151604,242
South SomersetYeovil South6,8672,4838921,32911739594,919
South SomersetYeovil West5,9491,9608041,29510152514,263
South SomersetYeovil Without5,3101,9034701,15690134523,805
 Total82,44430,1367,65117,6461,4101,3621,19459,399

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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