York Outer: Seat, Ward and Prediction Details

York Outer: Overview

 Prediction: CON hold 

MP at 2017: Julian Sturdy  (CON)
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate: 75,856
Turnout: 75.7%
2017
Votes
2017
Share
Predicted
Votes
CON29,35651.1%48.1%
LAB21,06736.7%35.7%
LIB5,91010.3%10.3%
Green1,0941.9%3.0%
UKIP00.0%2.9%
CON Majority8,28914.4%Pred Maj 12.4%
Chance of
winning
CON
69%
LAB
31%
LIB
0%
Green
0%
UKIP
0%

York Outer : Political and Demographic indicators

The table below shows some political and demographic numerical indicators for the York Outer constituency, the 'Yorks/Humber' area and nation.

The political measures include the Left/Right and International/National axes (what does this mean).

The demographic measures are from the 2011 Census and include categories relating to national identity, economic activity, health and education. These categories are those which have the most relevance to political attitudes.

IndicatorSeatYorks/HumberAll GB
Party WinnerCONLABCON
Economic Position5° Right3° Left
National Position2° Int6° Nat1° Int
EU Leave %44%58%52%
British Identity31%28%29%
Good Health49%46%48%
UK Born94%92%88%
Good Education47%36%39%
Good Job56%47%51%
High SEC60%46%51%
Average Age51.048.548.5
ABC1 Class62%49%53%

York Outer ranks #505 for "Leave", #239 for "Right" and #428 for "National" out of 650 seats.

Indicators: Legend and Descriptions

Indicators : Legend and Descriptions

The colour scheme used in the table above is explained in the legend table below. The eight census indicators (British Identity, Good Health, UK Born, Good Education, Good Job, High SEC, Average Age and AB1 Class) all use the same 'Census' colour scheme indicating whether the area's level is above or below the national average.

TopicCat 1Cat 2Cat 3Cat 4Cat 5
Economic PositionVery LeftLeftCentristRightVery Right
National PositionVery IntInternationalCentristNationalVery Nat
EU Leave %Very RemainRemainBalancedLeaveVery Leave
CensusVery LowLowMediumHighVery High

Indicator definitions are given in terms of political data definitions or census categories:

IndicatorCensus
Question
Definition / Included Census Categories
Party WinnerArea party winner : actual election result or projected by Electoral Calculus
Economic PositionEconomic position between 100° Left and 100° Right, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
National PositionNational position between 100° International and 100° National, estimated by Electoral Calculus from political and demographic data.
EU Leave %EU Referendum vote share for 'Leave' : actual result or estimate
British IdentityNational Identity (KS202)Those answering British, British-Other, or Scottish-British
Good HealthHealth (KS301)Those answering 'Very Good Health'
UK BornCountry of Birth (QS203)Those answering England, Northern Ireland, Scotland, Wales, GB Other, or UK Other
Good EducationHighest level of Qualification (QS501)Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or Level 4+ (degree equivalent)
Good JobOccupation (QS606)Occupation codes 1xx to 4xx (Managers, Professionals, Associates, and office workers)
High SECNS-SeC of Household Reference Person (QS609)National Statistics Socio-economic Classification from 1 to 4 (higher managers and professionals, lower managers and professionals, intermediate occupations, small employers and self-employed).
Average AgeAge (QS103)Average age of adults (18 years and above)
ABC1 ClassApproximated Social Grade (QS611)Approximated social grades A, B and C1

York Outer: Map

Boundary Lines courtesy of Ordnance Survey OpenData © Crown copyright 2015

York Outer: Ward-by-ward

Workings for York Outer

This section gives an estimate of the votes cast in each ward of York Outer at the general election of 2017. The official ward breakdowns are not officially tabulated or published, so these numbers are only approximate. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017, and also to predict how they will vote at the next election. These estimates are based both on the recent local election results and the Census 2011 demography in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

Usuallly each ward lies entirely within a single constituency, but some large wards are split between several constituencies (particularly in Scotland and Northern Ireland). The electorate figure shown is the estimate of the electorate which is common to both the constituency and the particular ward, and can be very small.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are a few problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Because not all parties have a candidate in each ward, and sometimes there is only a single candidate elected unopposed, the local election results can understate a party's true support. To correct for this, we also use Census demography to make an alternative estimate of how the ward voted in the general election, based on any demographic differences between the ward and the seat overall.

Both method are then combined together, and the votes are subject to a final adjustment to make sure that the totals over the wards add up to the general election seat total, as they must.

Raw vote and Estimated General Election vote

The raw vote table shows the district council election results for all the wards in the seat of York Outer. The first block shows the actual results, the second block shows the turnout-adjusted results. The final block shows the estimated general election votes for each ward after all the processes are complete.

York OuterActual Results
DistrictWardElection
Year
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
YorkBishopthorpe20151,2744071440154606
YorkCopmanthorpe20151,33944268901840
YorkDringhouses and Woodthorpe20154,7583,4198,1217921,6060
YorkFulford and Heslington20154373551,18801560
YorkHaxby and Wigginton20157,6173,0187,25201,364420
YorkHeworth Without20156033741,4201631500
YorkHull Road20153,6885,2701,5586673,296201
YorkHuntington and New Earswick20153,7843,6958,55801,8830
YorkOsbaldwick and Derwent20153,1511,1421,35507101,167
YorkRawcliffe and Clifton Without20156,3154,4504,54401,4630
YorkRural West York20154,4801,2041,4760731661
YorkStrensall20154,2711,1792,14405590
YorkWheldrake20151,63840528102320

York OuterTurnout-adjusted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
YorkBishopthorpe3,2771,18137713301435622,396
YorkCopmanthorpe3,5021,292426665017702,560
YorkDringhouses and Woodthorpe9,3011,7301,2432,95328858406,798
YorkFulford and Heslington2,8474263461,157015202,081
YorkHaxby and Wigginton10,1142,8631,1342,72605131587,394
YorkHeworth Without3,1315093161,19913812702,289
YorkHull Road3,425629899266114562342,504
YorkHuntington and New Earswick10,0961,5581,5223,524077507,379
YorkOsbaldwick and Derwent6,0191,84266879204156824,399
YorkRawcliffe and Clifton Without9,9402,7361,9281,969063407,267
YorkRural West York6,5672,51567682904103714,801
YorkStrensall6,8412,6207231,315034305,001
YorkWheldrake3,5011,640406281023202,559
 Total78,56121,54110,66417,8095405,0671,80757,428

The turnout-adjusted results are now combined with the implied results from the Census Demography calculation, and then adjusted to match the general election totals. The results of these calculations are shown in the table below.

York OuterEst. 2017 General Election Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
YorkBishopthorpe3,1641,42179214503802,396
YorkCopmanthorpe3,3811,51478023103402,559
YorkDringhouses and Woodthorpe8,9813,1232,647869016006,799
YorkFulford and Heslington2,74981489729307702,081
YorkHaxby and Wigginton9,7663,9892,45487807407,395
YorkHeworth Without3,0231,01586237403902,290
YorkHull Road3,3078581,279203016402,504
YorkHuntington and New Earswick9,7482,9873,305942014607,380
YorkOsbaldwick and Derwent5,8122,4331,51736408504,399
YorkRawcliffe and Clifton Without9,5983,4373,008696012507,266
YorkRural West York6,3412,9581,42035706604,801
YorkStrensall6,6053,1191,40542804905,001
YorkWheldrake3,3801,68970213103702,559
 Total78,56129,35721,0685,91101,094057,428

Predicted ward-by-ward votes for York Outer

This table shows the predicted general election result broken down over each ward in the seat of York Outer.

York OuterPredicted Results
DistrictWardElectorate
2017
CON
Votes
LAB
Votes
LIB
Votes
UKIP
Votes
Green
Votes
Other
Votes
Total
Votes
YorkBishopthorpe3,1641,348768146696502,396
YorkCopmanthorpe3,3811,436754232746302,559
YorkDringhouses and Woodthorpe8,9812,9162,57987319623606,800
YorkFulford and Heslington2,7497518762946010002,081
YorkHaxby and Wigginton9,7663,7642,38088221315607,395
YorkHeworth Without3,023945839375666502,290
YorkHull Road3,3077821,2542047219202,504
YorkHuntington and New Earswick9,7482,7623,23194621322807,380
YorkOsbaldwick and Derwent5,8122,2991,47336612713404,399
YorkRawcliffe and Clifton Without9,5983,2162,93570020920607,266
YorkRural West York6,3412,8121,37236013812004,802
YorkStrensall6,6052,9671,35543114410505,002
YorkWheldrake3,3801,611676132746602,559
 Total78,56127,60920,4925,9411,6551,736057,433

Please note that general election results and electorates are not officially made available ward-by-ward. The numbers shown are our best estimates for these figures, but are not official.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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