User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Labour majority 32

Party2010 Votes2010 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 37.0%307 31.0%2163-42265
LAB 29.7%258 34.0%830+83341
LIB 23.6%57 7.0%043-4314
UKIP 3.2%0 15.0%10+11
Green 1.0%1 0.0%01-10
SNP 1.7%6 1.7%00+06
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%10+14
Minor 3.4%0 10.7%10+11
N.Ire 18 00+018

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List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaPredicted Change  MP as at 2010
AberconwyClwydLABgain fromCON: Guto Bebb
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineGrampianCONgain fromLIB: Sir Robert Smith
Amber ValleyDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Nigel Mills
Argyll and ButeArgyll and ButeLABgain fromLIB: Alan Reid
BedfordBedfordshireLABgain fromCON: Richard Fuller
Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkSouthwarkLABgain fromLIB: Simon Hughes
Berwick-upon-TweedNorthumberlandCONgain fromLIB: Alan Beith
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkBordersCONgain fromLIB: Michael Moore
Birmingham YardleyBirminghamLABgain fromLIB: John Hemming
Blackpool North and CleveleysLancashireLABgain fromCON: Paul Maynard
Bradford EastWest YorkshireLABgain fromLIB: David Ward
Brecon and RadnorshirePowysCONgain fromLIB: Roger Williams
Brent CentralBrentLABgain fromLIB: Sarah Teather
Brentford and IsleworthHounslowLABgain fromCON: Mary Macleod
Brighton KemptownEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Simon Kirby
Brighton PavilionEast SussexLABgain fromGreen: Caroline Lucas
Bristol WestBristol areaLABgain fromLIB: Stephen Williams
BroxtoweNottinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Anna Soubry
BurnleyLancashireLABgain fromLIB: Gordon Birtwistle
Bury NorthWestern ManchesterLABgain fromCON: David Nuttall
Caithness Sutherland and Easter RossHighlandLABgain fromLIB: John Thurso
CambridgeCambridgeshireLABgain fromLIB: Julian Huppert
Cannock ChaseStaffordshireLABgain fromCON: Aidan Burley
Cardiff CentralSouth GlamorganLABgain fromLIB: Jenny Willott
Cardiff NorthSouth GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Jonathan Evans
CarlisleCumbriaLABgain fromCON: John Stevenson
Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire SouthDyfedLABgain fromCON: Simon Hart
Carshalton and WallingtonSuttonCONgain fromLIB: Tom Brake
CeredigionDyfedNATgain fromLIB: Mark Williams
CheadleEastern ManchesterCONgain fromLIB: Mark Hunter
CheltenhamGloucestershireCONgain fromLIB: Martin Horwood
Chester, City ofCheshireLABgain fromCON: Stephen Mosley
ChippenhamWiltshireCONgain fromLIB: Duncan Hames
CleethorpesHumber areaLABgain fromCON: Martin Vickers
Colne ValleyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Jason McCartney
CorbyNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCON: Louise Bagshaw
Cornwall NorthCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Dan Rogerson
Croydon CentralCroydonLABgain fromCON: Gavin Barwell
DewsburyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Simon Reevell
Dorset Mid and Poole NorthDorsetCONgain fromLIB: Annette Brooke
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and TweeddaleDumfries and GallowayLABgain fromCON: David Mundell
Dunbartonshire EastGlasgow areaLABgain fromLIB: Jo Swinson
Ealing Central and ActonEalingLABgain fromCON: Angie Bray
EastbourneEast SussexCONgain fromLIB: Stephen Lloyd
EastleighHampshireCONgain fromLIB: Christopher Huhne
Edinburgh WestEdinburgh areaLABgain fromLIB: Michael Crockart
Elmet and RothwellWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Alec Shelbrooke
Enfield NorthEnfieldLABgain fromCON: Nick de Bois
ErewashDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Jessica Lee
Fife North EastFifeLABgain fromLIB: Sir Menzies Campbell
GloucesterGloucestershireLABgain fromCON: Richard Graham
GordonGrampianLABgain fromLIB: Malcolm Bruce
Halesowen and Rowley RegisBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: James Morris
Harrow EastHarrowLABgain fromCON: Bob Blackman
Hastings and RyeEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Amber Rudd
HendonBarnetLABgain fromCON: Matthew Offord
High PeakDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Andrew Bingham
Hornsey and Wood GreenHaringeyLABgain fromLIB: Lynne Featherstone
HoveEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Mike Weatherley
Inverness Nairn Badenoch and StrathspeyHighlandLABgain fromLIB: Danny Alexander
IpswichSuffolkLABgain fromCON: Ben Gummer
KeighleyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Kris Hopkins
Kingston and SurbitonKingston Upon ThamesCONgain fromLIB: Edward Davey
KingswoodBristol areaLABgain fromCON: Chris Skidmore
Lancaster and FleetwoodLancashireLABgain fromCON: Eric Ollerenshaw
LincolnLincolnshireLABgain fromCON: Karl McCartney
LoughboroughLeicestershireLABgain fromCON: Nicky Morgan
Manchester WithingtonCentral ManchesterLABgain fromLIB: John Leech
Milton Keynes SouthBuckinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Iain Stewart
Morecambe and LunesdaleLancashireLABgain fromCON: David Morris
Northampton NorthNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCON: Michael Ellis
Norwich NorthNorfolkLABgain fromCON: Chloe Smith
Norwich SouthNorfolkLABgain fromLIB: Simon Wright
NuneatonWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Marcus Jones
Orkney and ShetlandOrkney and ShetlandUKIPgain fromLIB: Alistair Carmichael
PendleLancashireLABgain fromCON: Andrew Stephenson
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportDevonLABgain fromCON: Oliver Colvile
PudseyWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Stuart Andrew
RedcarTeessideLABgain fromLIB: Ian Swales
Ross Skye and LochaberHighlandLABgain fromLIB: Charles Kennedy
Rossendale and DarwenLancashireLABgain fromCON: Jake Berry
SherwoodNottinghamshireLABgain fromCON: Mark Spencer
SolihullCoventry and SolihullCONgain fromLIB: Lorely Burt
Somerset North EastBristol areaLABgain fromCON: Jacob Rees-Mogg
Somerton and FromeSomersetCONgain fromLIB: David Heath
St Austell and NewquayCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Stephen Gilbert
St IvesCornwallCONgain fromLIB: Andrew George
StevenageHertfordshireLABgain fromCON: Stephen McPartland
Stockton SouthTeessideLABgain fromCON: James Wharton
StroudGloucestershireLABgain fromCON: Neil Carmichael
Sutton and CheamSuttonCONgain fromLIB: Paul Burstow
Swindon SouthWiltshireLABgain fromCON: Robert Buckland
Taunton DeaneSomersetCONgain fromLIB: Jeremy Browne
ThurrockEssexLABgain fromCON: Jackie Doyle-Price
TorbayDevonCONgain fromLIB: Adrian Sanders
Vale of GlamorganSouth GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Alun Cairns
Warrington SouthCheshireLABgain fromCON: David Mowat
Warwick and LeamingtonWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Chris White
Warwickshire NorthWarwickshireLABgain fromCON: Dan Byles
WatfordHertfordshireLABgain fromCON: Richard Harrington
WaveneySuffolkLABgain fromCON: Peter Aldous
Weaver ValeCheshireLABgain fromCON: Graham Evans
WellsSomersetCONgain fromLIB: Tessa Munt
Wirral WestMerseysideLABgain fromCON: Esther McVey
Wolverhampton South WestBlack CountryLABgain fromCON: Paul Uppal
WorcesterHereford and WorcestershireLABgain fromCON: Robin Walker
Wyre ForestHereford and WorcestershireMINgain fromCON: Mark Garnier

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2010. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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