The predicted results in the country, given the National and Regional levels of support which you entered, are as follows.
Party | 2015 Votes | 2015 Seats | Pred Votes | Gains | Losses | Net Change | Pred Seats |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CON | 37.8% | 331 | 40.9% | 14 | 29 | -15 | 316 |
LAB | 31.2% | 232 | 38.0% | 25 | 10 | +15 | 247 |
LIB | 8.1% | 8 | 8.5% | 5 | 2 | +3 | 11 |
UKIP | 12.9% | 1 | 4.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
Green | 3.8% | 1 | 3.0% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 1 |
SNP | 4.9% | 56 | 4.4% | 0 | 3 | -3 | 53 |
PlaidC | 0.6% | 3 | 0.6% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 3 |
Other | 0.8% | 0 | 0.7% | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 |
N.Ire | 18 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 18 |
The prediction was made with the following information about Regional support. The table shows the support levels entered and the difference in swing implied by those levels compared with that inferred from the national support figures (marked 'SD' for swing-difference).
Area | CON % | LAB % | LIB % | UKIP % | Green % | NAT % | Weight % | CON SD% | LAB SD% | LIB SD% | UKIP SD% | Green SD% | NAT SD% |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scotland | 25.5 | 23.5 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 44.5 | 9.7 | 7.5 | -7.5 | -3.3 | 7.6 | 1.1 | -5.7 |
North East | 29.0 | 47.0 | 7.0 | 13.5 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 0.6 | -6.6 | 0.0 | 5.6 | 0.2 | ||
North West | 41.0 | 50.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 11.2 | 6.0 | -2.3 | -0.2 | -1.9 | -1.5 | ||
Yorks/Humber | 45.5 | 44.9 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 8.2 | 8.8 | -2.0 | -1.3 | -3.3 | -1.8 | ||
Wales | 32.8 | 45.1 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | -2.4 | -0.9 | 1.2 | -0.4 |
West Midlands | 44.0 | 41.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 8.8 | -0.9 | 1.3 | -0.1 | -2.9 | 2.5 | ||
East Midlands | 50.5 | 32.2 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 7.4 | 4.3 | -5.9 | 0.2 | -2.8 | 1.9 | ||
Anglia | 47.0 | 34.9 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 9.8 | -4.9 | 6.4 | -1.2 | -0.3 | -0.2 | ||
South West | 43.5 | 33.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 9.5 | -5.7 | 9.0 | -5.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | ||
London | 30.2 | 47.5 | 16.6 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 11.8 | -7.9 | -3.2 | 8.2 | 4.6 | -1.7 | ||
South East | 50.5 | 28.5 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 14.7 | -3.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | -3.6 | -0.1 | ||
Average | 40.9 | 38.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
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Seat | County/Area | Predicted Change | MP as at 2015 | ||
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine | Grampian | CON | gain from | SNP | Stuart Donaldson |
Barrow and Furness | Cumbria | CON | gain from | LAB | John Woodcock |
Bedford | Bedfordshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Richard Fuller |
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | Borders | CON | gain from | SNP | Calum Kerr |
Bishop Auckland | Durham | CON | gain from | LAB | Helen Goodman |
Brighton Kemptown | East Sussex | LAB | gain from | CON | Simon Kirby |
Bristol North West | Bristol area | LAB | gain from | CON | Charlotte Leslie |
Camborne and Redruth | Cornwall | LAB | gain from | CON | George Eustice |
Chester, City of | Cheshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Chris Matheson |
Croydon Central | Croydon | LAB | gain from | CON | Gavin Barwell |
Derbyshire North East | Derbyshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Natascha Engel |
Dewsbury | West Yorkshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Paula Sherriff |
Dover | Kent | LAB | gain from | CON | Charlie Elphicke |
Dumfries and Galloway | Dumfries and Galloway | CON | gain from | SNP | Richard Arkless |
Eastbourne | East Sussex | LIB | gain from | CON | Caroline Ansell |
Gloucester | Gloucestershire | LAB | gain from | CON | Richard Graham |
Gower | West Glamorgan | LAB | gain from | CON | Byron Davies |
Great Yarmouth | Norfolk | LAB | gain from | CON | Brandon Lewis |
Halifax | West Yorkshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Holly Lynch |
Hastings and Rye | East Sussex | LAB | gain from | CON | Amber Rudd |
Hendon | Barnet | LAB | gain from | CON | Matthew Offord |
Ipswich | Suffolk | LAB | gain from | CON | Ben Gummer |
Kingston and Surbiton | Kingston Upon Thames | LIB | gain from | CON | James Berry |
Lancaster and Fleetwood | Lancashire | CON | gain from | LAB | Catherine Smith |
Lewes | East Sussex | LIB | gain from | CON | Maria Caulfield |
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland East | Teesside | CON | gain from | LAB | Tom Blenkinsop |
Norwich North | Norfolk | LAB | gain from | CON | Chloe Smith |
Peterborough | Cambridgeshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Stewart Jackson |
Plymouth Moor View | Devon | LAB | gain from | CON | Johnny Mercer |
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport | Devon | LAB | gain from | CON | Oliver Colvile |
Sheffield Hallam | South Yorkshire | LAB | gain from | LIB | Nick Clegg |
Southampton Itchen | Hampshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Royston Smith |
Southport | Merseyside | CON | gain from | LIB | John Pugh |
Stevenage | Hertfordshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Stephen McPartland |
Stroud | Gloucestershire | LAB | gain from | CON | Neil Carmichael |
Sutton and Cheam | Sutton | LIB | gain from | CON | Paul Scully |
Swindon South | Wiltshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Robert Buckland |
Telford | Shropshire | LAB | gain from | CON | Lucy Allan |
Thanet South | Kent | LAB | gain from | CON | Craig Mackinlay |
Thurrock | Essex | LAB | gain from | CON | Jackie Doyle-Price |
Twickenham | Richmond Upon Thames | LIB | gain from | CON | Tania Mathias |
Wakefield | West Yorkshire | CON | gain from | LAB | Mary Creagh |
Waveney | Suffolk | LAB | gain from | CON | Peter Aldous |
Wirral West | Merseyside | CON | gain from | LAB | Margaret Greenwood |
Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.
© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
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