User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country, given the National and Regional levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National and Regional Prediction: Conservative short 10 of majority

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 37.8%331 40.9%1429-15316
LAB 31.2%232 38.0%2510+15247
LIB 8.1%8 8.5%52+311
UKIP 12.9%1 4.0%00+01
Green 3.8%1 3.0%00+01
SNP 4.9%56 4.4%03-353
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%00+03
Other 0.8%0 0.7%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

The prediction was made with the following information about Regional support. The table shows the support levels entered and the difference in swing implied by those levels compared with that inferred from the national support figures (marked 'SD' for swing-difference).

AreaCON %LAB %LIB %UKIP %Green %NAT %Weight % CON SD%LAB SD%LIB SD%UKIP SD%Green SD%NAT SD%
Scotland25.523.54.80.51.744.59.77.5-7.5-3.37.61.1-5.7
North East29.047.07.013.53.04.00.6-6.60.05.60.2
North West41.050.07.03.01.011.26.0-2.3-0.2-1.9-1.5
Yorks/Humber45.544.96.54.01.08.28.8-2.0-1.3-3.3-1.8
Wales32.845.14.74.03.012.05.01.90.6-2.4-0.91.2-0.4
West Midlands44.041.06.04.05.08.8-0.91.3-0.1-2.92.5
East Midlands50.532.26.14.03.97.44.3-5.90.2-2.81.9
Anglia47.034.97.57.02.99.8-4.96.4-1.2-0.3-0.2
South West43.533.010.05.05.09.5-5.79.0-5.40.50.1
London30.247.516.64.02.511.8-7.9-3.28.24.6-1.7
South East50.528.511.02.04.014.7-3.64.11.4-3.6-0.1
Average40.938.08.54.03.0100.00.00.00.00.00.0

Edit current prediction, make new prediction, or go back to home page.

List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaPredicted Change  MP as at 2015
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineGrampianCONgain fromSNPStuart Donaldson
Barrow and FurnessCumbriaCONgain fromLABJohn Woodcock
BedfordBedfordshireLABgain fromCONRichard Fuller
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkBordersCONgain fromSNPCalum Kerr
Bishop AucklandDurhamCONgain fromLABHelen Goodman
Brighton KemptownEast SussexLABgain fromCONSimon Kirby
Bristol North WestBristol areaLABgain fromCONCharlotte Leslie
Camborne and RedruthCornwallLABgain fromCONGeorge Eustice
Chester, City ofCheshireCONgain fromLABChris Matheson
Croydon CentralCroydonLABgain fromCONGavin Barwell
Derbyshire North EastDerbyshireCONgain fromLABNatascha Engel
DewsburyWest YorkshireCONgain fromLABPaula Sherriff
DoverKentLABgain fromCONCharlie Elphicke
Dumfries and GallowayDumfries and GallowayCONgain fromSNPRichard Arkless
EastbourneEast SussexLIBgain fromCONCaroline Ansell
GloucesterGloucestershireLABgain fromCONRichard Graham
GowerWest GlamorganLABgain fromCONByron Davies
Great YarmouthNorfolkLABgain fromCONBrandon Lewis
HalifaxWest YorkshireCONgain fromLABHolly Lynch
Hastings and RyeEast SussexLABgain fromCONAmber Rudd
HendonBarnetLABgain fromCONMatthew Offord
IpswichSuffolkLABgain fromCONBen Gummer
Kingston and SurbitonKingston Upon ThamesLIBgain fromCONJames Berry
Lancaster and FleetwoodLancashireCONgain fromLABCatherine Smith
LewesEast SussexLIBgain fromCONMaria Caulfield
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland EastTeessideCONgain fromLABTom Blenkinsop
Norwich NorthNorfolkLABgain fromCONChloe Smith
PeterboroughCambridgeshireLABgain fromCONStewart Jackson
Plymouth Moor ViewDevonLABgain fromCONJohnny Mercer
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportDevonLABgain fromCONOliver Colvile
Sheffield HallamSouth YorkshireLABgain fromLIBNick Clegg
Southampton ItchenHampshireLABgain fromCONRoyston Smith
SouthportMerseysideCONgain fromLIBJohn Pugh
StevenageHertfordshireLABgain fromCONStephen McPartland
StroudGloucestershireLABgain fromCONNeil Carmichael
Sutton and CheamSuttonLIBgain fromCONPaul Scully
Swindon SouthWiltshireLABgain fromCONRobert Buckland
TelfordShropshireLABgain fromCONLucy Allan
Thanet SouthKentLABgain fromCONCraig Mackinlay
ThurrockEssexLABgain fromCONJackie Doyle-Price
TwickenhamRichmond Upon ThamesLIBgain fromCONTania Mathias
WakefieldWest YorkshireCONgain fromLABMary Creagh
WaveneySuffolkLABgain fromCONPeter Aldous
Wirral WestMerseysideCONgain fromLABMargaret Greenwood

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


© 2024 Electoral Calculus Ltd
Powered by TigerLib (14-Mar-2024 12:19, Py3L, sc1)

Pause to inspect. Press Enter to continue...