User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country, given the National and Regional levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National and Regional Prediction: Conservative short 8 of majority

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 37.8%331 40.9%1528-13318
LAB 31.2%232 38.0%2610+16248
LIB 8.1%8 8.5%44+08
UKIP 12.9%1 4.0%01-10
Green 3.8%1 3.0%00+01
SNP 4.9%56 4.4%13-254
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%00+03
Minor 0.8%0 0.7%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

The prediction was made with the following information about Regional support. The table shows the support levels entered and the difference in swing implied by those levels compared with that inferred from the national support figures (marked 'SD' for swing-difference).

AreaCON %LAB %LIB %UKIP %Green %NAT %Weight % CON SD%LAB SD%LIB SD%UKIP SD%Green SD%NAT SD%
  Scotland 25.523.54.80.51.744.59.77.5-7.6-3.37.71.1-5.7
  North East 29.047.07.013.53.04.00.6-6.60.05.60.2
  North West 41.050.07.03.01.011.26.0-2.3-0.2-2.0-1.5
  Yorks/Humber 45.544.96.54.01.08.29.0-1.8-1.3-3.3-1.8
  Wales 32.845.14.74.03.012.05.02.00.8-2.4-0.91.2-0.3
  West Midlands 44.041.06.04.05.08.8-0.81.4-0.0-2.92.5
  East Midlands 50.532.26.14.03.97.44.2-5.90.2-2.81.9
  Anglia 47.034.97.57.02.99.8-4.96.3-1.2-0.4-0.2
  South West 43.533.010.05.05.09.5-5.88.9-5.40.50.1
  London 30.247.516.64.02.511.8-7.9-3.28.24.6-1.7
  South East 50.528.511.02.04.014.7-3.74.01.4-3.6-0.1
 Average 40.938.08.54.03.0100.00.00.00.00.00.0

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List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaPredicted Change  MP as at 2015
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineGrampianCONgain fromNAT: Stuart Donaldson
Barrow and FurnessCumbriaCONgain fromLAB: John Woodcock
BedfordBedfordshireLABgain fromCON: Richard Fuller
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkBordersCONgain fromNAT: Calum Kerr
Bishop AucklandDurhamCONgain fromLAB: Helen Goodman
Brighton KemptownEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Simon Kirby
Bristol North WestBristol areaLABgain fromCON: Charlotte Leslie
Camborne and RedruthCornwallLABgain fromCON: George Eustice
Chester, City ofCheshireCONgain fromLAB: Chris Matheson
ClactonEssexCONgain fromUKIP: Douglas Carswell
Croydon CentralCroydonLABgain fromCON: Gavin Barwell
Derbyshire North EastDerbyshireCONgain fromLAB: Natascha Engel
DewsburyWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Paula Sherriff
DoverKentLABgain fromCON: Charlie Elphicke
Dumfries and GallowayDumfries and GallowayCONgain fromNAT: Richard Arkless
GloucesterGloucestershireLABgain fromCON: Richard Graham
GowerWest GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Byron Davies
Great YarmouthNorfolkLABgain fromCON: Brandon Lewis
HalifaxWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Holly Lynch
Hastings and RyeEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Amber Rudd
HendonBarnetLABgain fromCON: Matthew Offord
IpswichSuffolkLABgain fromCON: Ben Gummer
Kingston and SurbitonKingston Upon ThamesLIBgain fromCON: James Berry
Lancaster and FleetwoodLancashireCONgain fromLAB: Catherine Smith
Leeds North WestWest YorkshireLABgain fromLIB: Greg Mulholland
LewesEast SussexLIBgain fromCON: Maria Caulfield
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland EastTeessideCONgain fromLAB: Tom Blenkinsop
Norwich NorthNorfolkLABgain fromCON: Chloe Smith
Orkney and ShetlandOrkney and ShetlandNATgain fromLIB: Alistair Carmichael
PeterboroughCambridgeshireLABgain fromCON: Stewart Jackson
Plymouth Moor ViewDevonLABgain fromCON: Johnny Mercer
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportDevonLABgain fromCON: Oliver Colvile
Sheffield HallamSouth YorkshireLABgain fromLIB: Nick Clegg
Southampton ItchenHampshireLABgain fromCON: Royston Smith
SouthportMerseysideCONgain fromLIB: John Pugh
StevenageHertfordshireLABgain fromCON: Stephen McPartland
StroudGloucestershireLABgain fromCON: Neil Carmichael
Sutton and CheamSuttonLIBgain fromCON: Paul Scully
Swindon SouthWiltshireLABgain fromCON: Robert Buckland
TelfordShropshireLABgain fromCON: Lucy Allan
Thanet SouthKentLABgain fromCON: Craig Mackinlay
ThurrockEssexLABgain fromCON: Jackie Doyle-Price
TwickenhamRichmond Upon ThamesLIBgain fromCON: Tania Mathias
WakefieldWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Mary Creagh
WaveneySuffolkLABgain fromCON: Peter Aldous
Wirral WestMerseysideCONgain fromLAB: Margaret Greenwood

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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