User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative short 10 of majority

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 37.8%331 41.3%419-15316
LAB 31.2%232 40.4%210+21253
LIB 8.1%8 7.8%04-44
UKIP 12.9%1 2.4%01-10
Green 3.8%1 2.3%00+01
SNP 4.9%56 4.9%01-155
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%00+03
Minor 0.8%0 0.4%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaPredicted Change  MP as at 2015
BedfordBedfordshireLABgain fromCON: Richard Fuller
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkBordersCONgain fromNAT: Calum Kerr
Bolton WestWestern ManchesterLABgain fromCON: Chris Green
Brighton KemptownEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Simon Kirby
Bury NorthWestern ManchesterLABgain fromCON: David Nuttall
Cardiff NorthSouth GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Craig Williams
Carshalton and WallingtonSuttonCONgain fromLIB: Tom Brake
ClactonEssexCONgain fromUKIP: Douglas Carswell
Croydon CentralCroydonLABgain fromCON: Gavin Barwell
Derby NorthDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Amanda Solloway
GowerWest GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Byron Davies
Hastings and RyeEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Amber Rudd
Leeds North WestWest YorkshireLABgain fromLIB: Greg Mulholland
LincolnLincolnshireLABgain fromCON: Karl McCartney
Morley and OutwoodWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Andrea Jenkyns
PeterboroughCambridgeshireLABgain fromCON: Stewart Jackson
Plymouth Moor ViewDevonLABgain fromCON: Johnny Mercer
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportDevonLABgain fromCON: Oliver Colvile
Sheffield HallamSouth YorkshireLABgain fromLIB: Nick Clegg
Southampton ItchenHampshireLABgain fromCON: Royston Smith
SouthportMerseysideCONgain fromLIB: John Pugh
TelfordShropshireLABgain fromCON: Lucy Allan
ThurrockEssexLABgain fromCON: Jackie Doyle-Price
Vale of ClwydClwydLABgain fromCON: James Davies
WaveneySuffolkLABgain fromCON: Peter Aldous

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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