User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative majority 50

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 37.8%331 43.7%223+19350
LAB 31.2%232 35.7%417-13219
LIB 8.1%8 8.0%04-44
UKIP 12.9%1 4.4%01-10
Green 3.8%1 2.2%00+01
SNP 4.9%56 4.9%01-155
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%00+03
Minor 0.8%0 0.6%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaPredicted Change  MP as at 2015
Barrow and FurnessCumbriaCONgain fromLAB: John Woodcock
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkBordersCONgain fromNAT: Calum Kerr
Birmingham NorthfieldBirminghamCONgain fromLAB: Richard Burden
Brentford and IsleworthHounslowCONgain fromLAB: Ruth Cadbury
Carshalton and WallingtonSuttonCONgain fromLIB: Tom Brake
Chester, City ofCheshireCONgain fromLAB: Chris Matheson
ClactonEssexCONgain fromUKIP: Douglas Carswell
DewsburyWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Paula Sherriff
Ealing Central and ActonEalingCONgain fromLAB: Rupa Huq
ElthamGreenwichCONgain fromLAB: Clive Efford
Enfield NorthEnfieldCONgain fromLAB: Joan Ryan
GowerWest GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Byron Davies
HalifaxWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Holly Lynch
Hampstead and KilburnCamdenCONgain fromLAB: Tulip Siddiq
Ilford NorthRedbridgeCONgain fromLAB: Wes Streeting
Lancaster and FleetwoodLancashireCONgain fromLAB: Catherine Smith
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland EastTeessideCONgain fromLAB: Tom Blenkinsop
Newcastle-under-LymeStaffordshireCONgain fromLAB: Paul Farrelly
Norfolk NorthNorfolkCONgain fromLIB: Norman Lamb
Plymouth Moor ViewDevonLABgain fromCON: Johnny Mercer
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportDevonLABgain fromCON: Oliver Colvile
Sheffield HallamSouth YorkshireLABgain fromLIB: Nick Clegg
SouthportMerseysideCONgain fromLIB: John Pugh
Stoke-on-Trent SouthStaffordshireCONgain fromLAB: Robert Flello
Wirral WestMerseysideCONgain fromLAB: Margaret Greenwood
Wolverhampton South WestBlack CountryCONgain fromLAB: Rob Marris

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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