User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative short 14 of majority

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 37.8%331 46.4%524-19312
LAB 31.2%232 48.3%340+34266
LIB 8.1%8 0.0%08-80
UKIP 12.9%1 0.0%01-10
Green 3.8%1 0.0%01-10
SNP 4.9%56 4.7%03-353
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.5%02-21
Minor 0.8%0 0.1%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaPredicted Change  MP as at 2015
ArfonGwyneddLABgain fromNAT: Hywel Williams
BedfordBedfordshireLABgain fromCON: Richard Fuller
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkBordersCONgain fromNAT: Calum Kerr
Bolton WestWestern ManchesterLABgain fromCON: Chris Green
Brighton KemptownEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Simon Kirby
Brighton PavilionEast SussexLABgain fromGreen: Caroline Lucas
Bristol North WestBristol areaLABgain fromCON: Charlotte Leslie
Bury NorthWestern ManchesterLABgain fromCON: David Nuttall
Camborne and RedruthCornwallLABgain fromCON: George Eustice
Cardiff NorthSouth GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Craig Williams
Carmarthen East and DinefwrDyfedLABgain fromNAT: Jonathan Edwards
Carshalton and WallingtonSuttonCONgain fromLIB: Tom Brake
CeredigionDyfedLABgain fromLIB: Mark Williams
ClactonEssexCONgain fromUKIP: Douglas Carswell
CorbyNorthamptonshireLABgain fromCON: Tom Pursglove
Croydon CentralCroydonLABgain fromCON: Gavin Barwell
Derby NorthDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Amanda Solloway
Dunbartonshire EastGlasgow areaLABgain fromNAT: John Nicolson
Edinburgh North and LeithEdinburgh areaLABgain fromNAT: Deidre Brock
GowerWest GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Byron Davies
Leeds North WestWest YorkshireLABgain fromLIB: Greg Mulholland
LincolnLincolnshireLABgain fromCON: Karl McCartney
Morley and OutwoodWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Andrea Jenkyns
Norfolk NorthNorfolkCONgain fromLIB: Norman Lamb
Orkney and ShetlandOrkney and ShetlandLABgain fromLIB: Alistair Carmichael
PeterboroughCambridgeshireLABgain fromCON: Stewart Jackson
Plymouth Moor ViewDevonLABgain fromCON: Johnny Mercer
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportDevonLABgain fromCON: Oliver Colvile
Portsmouth SouthHampshireLABgain fromCON: Flick Drummond
Sheffield HallamSouth YorkshireLABgain fromLIB: Nick Clegg
Southampton ItchenHampshireLABgain fromCON: Royston Smith
SouthportMerseysideLABgain fromLIB: John Pugh
TelfordShropshireLABgain fromCON: Lucy Allan
Thanet SouthKentLABgain fromCON: Craig Mackinlay
ThurrockEssexLABgain fromCON: Jackie Doyle-Price
Vale of ClwydClwydLABgain fromCON: James Davies
WaveneySuffolkLABgain fromCON: Peter Aldous
Weaver ValeCheshireLABgain fromCON: Graham Evans
Westmorland and LonsdaleCumbriaCONgain fromLIB: Tim Farron

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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