User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative short 3 of majority

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.5%318 43.5%72+5323
LAB 41.0%262 41.0%67-1261
LIB 7.6%12 7.6%00+012
UKIP 1.9%0 1.9%00+00
Green 1.7%1 1.7%00+01
SNP 3.1%35 3.2%26-431
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%00+04
Minor 0.7%0 0.6%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 23.9%02-211
LAB 27.1%7 29.0%60+613
LIB 6.8%4 6.9%00+04
UKIP 0.2%0 0.2%00+00
Green 0.2%0 0.2%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 37.7%26-431
Minor 0.3%0 2.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Argyll and Bute (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ayrshire North and Arran (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

Lab
Seats
Con
Seats
SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
Out%
CON
%
LAB
%
LIB
%
UKIP
%
Green
%
SNP
%
MIN
%
OTH
%
2017
Win
Pred
Win
61524Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.114.956.93.00.00.023.30.01.9LABLAB
94491Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.09.844.22.10.00.042.70.01.2LABLAB
99486Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.312.344.22.20.00.039.80.01.6LABLAB
113472Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.211.842.12.01.40.041.30.01.5SNPLAB
121463Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.910.539.83.00.00.045.30.01.3SNPSNP
139445Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.213.039.42.40.00.043.60.01.6SNPSNP
142443Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.614.240.51.71.40.039.60.02.6SNPLAB
147437Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.111.136.33.60.08.738.40.01.8SNPSNP
148437Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.514.739.54.40.90.037.80.02.6LABLAB
152433Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.515.339.82.31.30.039.40.01.9SNPLAB
153431Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.913.637.73.70.00.043.30.01.7SNPSNP
154430Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.414.438.53.40.00.041.90.01.8SNPSNP
155429Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.612.435.41.80.00.041.37.51.6SNPSNP
156429Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.416.639.52.60.00.039.30.01.9SNPLAB
157427Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.014.036.54.40.00.043.30.01.8SNPSNP
158426Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.712.234.73.20.00.047.30.02.6SNPSNP
159425Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.914.736.73.10.00.043.60.01.9SNPSNP
159425Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.913.835.73.01.40.044.40.01.7SNPSNP
160424Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.014.736.53.30.00.041.50.04.0SNPSNP
166419Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.218.339.12.30.00.038.40.01.9SNPLAB
170415Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.518.438.92.61.20.037.10.01.9LABLAB
187398Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.320.538.43.90.00.035.20.01.9LABLAB
192392Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.419.835.96.10.00.036.40.01.9SNPSNP
195389Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.719.534.73.00.00.040.90.01.9SNPSNP
197387Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.217.832.04.80.00.042.10.03.3SNPSNP
202383East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.624.738.13.30.00.031.40.02.6LABLAB
202382East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.320.433.73.11.20.039.70.01.9SNPSNP
212372Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.122.633.93.30.00.038.30.01.9SNPSNP
213371Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.222.333.34.70.02.734.90.02.0SNPSNP
217367Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.421.331.92.21.31.539.80.02.0SNPSNP
222362Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.421.830.92.30.00.043.20.01.9SNPSNP
222362Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.124.233.23.60.00.037.20.01.9SNPSNP
236349Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.327.133.92.61.10.033.40.01.9SNPLAB
240344Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.16.612.348.71.20.029.40.01.9LIBLIB
240344Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.222.528.03.90.00.043.70.01.9SNPSNP
242342Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.111.016.040.70.00.030.90.01.4LIBLIB
248336Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.826.329.52.50.00.039.70.01.9SNPSNP
259325Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.428.528.84.40.00.036.40.01.9SNPSNP
261323Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.817.016.934.40.00.029.50.02.2LIBLIB
271313Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.329.528.12.50.00.038.00.01.9SNPSNP
288296Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.917.714.435.90.00.030.00.01.9LIBLIB
304280Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.720.014.221.10.00.041.10.03.7SNPSNP
307278Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.735.128.72.20.00.032.10.01.9CONCON
313271Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.725.618.212.40.00.040.70.03.1SNPSNP
313271Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.319.211.633.00.00.033.70.02.4SNPSNP
315269Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.332.224.13.60.00.037.60.02.6CONSNP
321264Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.935.225.92.00.00.035.00.01.9CONCON
337247Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.528.314.618.30.00.036.80.01.9SNPSNP
340245Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.636.622.03.40.00.036.10.01.9CONCON
341244Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.537.222.66.00.00.032.30.01.9CONCON
345240Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.538.422.92.60.00.033.20.03.0CONCON
383201Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.435.813.811.80.00.036.70.01.9CONSNP
403181Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.837.412.45.20.00.043.20.01.9SNPSNP
406179Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.040.215.03.40.00.039.40.01.9CONCON
412173Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.444.518.64.10.00.030.90.01.9CONCON
442143Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.442.613.02.40.00.039.70.02.3CONCON
446139Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.242.913.18.80.00.033.30.01.9CONCON
462123Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.643.111.53.60.00.039.90.01.9CONCON
52659Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.549.010.64.90.00.033.60.01.9CONCON

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


© 2018 Martin Baxter
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