User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country and in Scotland, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative short 3 of majority

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 43.5%318 43.5%72+5323
LAB 41.0%262 41.0%67-1261
LIB 7.6%12 7.6%00+012
UKIP 1.9%0 1.9%00+00
Green 1.7%1 1.7%00+01
SNP 3.1%35 3.2%26-431
PlaidC 0.5%4 0.5%00+04
Minor 0.7%0 0.6%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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Table of all seat results in Scotland

Scotland Prediction

Party2017 Votes2017 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 28.6%13 23.9%02-211
LAB 27.1%7 29.0%60+613
LIB 6.8%4 6.9%00+04
UKIP 0.2%0 0.2%00+00
Green 0.2%0 0.2%00+00
SNP 36.9%35 37.7%26-431
Minor 0.3%0 2.1%00+00

This page shows all the seats in Scotland sorted by the predicted difference between Labour and Conservative votes. The safest Labour seat, Edinburgh South, is at the top, and the strongest Conservative seat, Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, is at the bottom. The first two columns, 'Lab Seats' and 'Con Seats', show how many seats each big party wins if they won that seat and all easier seats, assuming the other smaller parties' votes stay constant. Either big party needs 326 seats to have a majority. So Labour needs to win all the seats down to Argyll and Bute (prediction: SNP), and the Conservatives need to win all their seats up to Ayrshire North and Arran (prediction: SNP).

The seats between those two limits are the key battleground for the next general election.

More information and a full description of the majority-sorted seat list is here.

List of Scotland seats with predictions

SeatMP at 2017ElectorateTurn
61524Edinburgh South Ian Murray64,55374.114.956.
94491Glasgow North East Paul Sweeney59,93253.09.844.
99486Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill Hugh Gaffney71,19863.312.344.
113472Glasgow South West Chris Stephens62,99156.211.842.
121463Glasgow Central Alison Thewliss64,34655.910.539.
139445Dunbartonshire West Martin Docherty67,60265.
142443Glasgow East David Linden66,24254.614.
147437Glasgow North Patrick Grady53,86362.
148437Rutherglen and Hamilton West Ged Killen80,09863.514.739.
152433Motherwell and Wishaw Marion Fellows68,21561.515.339.
153431Glasgow North West Carol Monaghan63,77360.913.637.
154430Glasgow South Stewart McDonald69,12664.414.438.
155429Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) Angus MacNeil21,30169.612.435.
156429Inverclyde Ronnie Cowan58,85366.416.639.
157427Edinburgh East Tommy Sheppard65,89666.
158426Dundee West Chris Law62,64461.712.
159425Glenrothes Peter Grant66,37860.914.736.
159425Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East Stuart McDonald66,55465.913.835.
160424Paisley and Renfrewshire South Mhairi Black61,34468.014.736.
166419Airdrie and Shotts Neil Gray64,14659.218.339.
170415Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath Lesley Laird72,72163.518.438.
187398Midlothian Danielle Rowley68,32866.320.538.
192392Dunfermline and West Fife Douglas Chapman75,67267.419.835.
195389Livingston Hannah Bardell81,20864.719.534.
197387Aberdeen North Kirsty Blackman62,13059.217.832.
202383East Lothian Martin Whitfield79,09370.624.738.
202382East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagow Lisa Cameron80,44267.320.433.
212372Paisley and Renfrewshire North Gavin Newlands67,43669.122.633.
213371Edinburgh North and Leith Deidre Brock79,47371.222.333.
217367Falkirk Johnny McNally82,24065.421.331.
222362Kilmarnock and Loudoun Alan Brown73,32763.421.830.
222362Linlithgow and East Falkirk Martyn Day86,18665.
236349Lanark and Hamilton East Angela Crawley77,31365.327.
240344Orkney and Shetland Alistair Carmichael34,16468.16.612.348.
240344Dundee East Stewart Hosie65,85465.222.528.
242342Dunbartonshire East Jo Swinson66,30078.
248336Ayrshire North and Arran Patricia Gibson73,17464.826.329.
259325Edinburgh South West Joanna Cherry71,17869.428.528.
261323Edinburgh West Christine Jardine71,50073.817.016.934.
271313Ayrshire Central Philippa Whitford68,99765.329.528.
288296Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross Jamie Stone46,86865.917.714.435.
304280Ross Skye and Lochaber Ian Blackford53,63871.720.
307278Renfrewshire East Paul Masterton70,06776.735.
313271Inverness Nairn Badenoch and Strathspey Drew Hendry76,84468.725.618.
313271Fife North East Stephen Gethins58,68571.319.211.633.
315269Stirling Stephen Kerr66,41574.332.
321264Ayr Carrick and Cumnock Bill Grant71,24164.935.
337247Argyll and Bute Brendan O'Hara67,23071.528.314.618.
340245Ochil and South Perthshire Luke Graham76,76770.636.622.
341244Aberdeen South Ross Thomson64,96468.537.
345240Dumfries and Galloway Alister Jack74,20669.538.422.
383201Gordon Colin Clark78,53168.435.813.811.
403181Perth and North Perthshire Pete Wishart71,74371.837.412.
406179Angus Kirstene Hair63,84063.
412173Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale David Mundell67,67272.444.518.
442143Moray Douglas Ross70,64967.442.613.
446139Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine Andrew Bowie72,47771.242.913.
462123Banff and Buchan David Duguid67,60161.643.
52659Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk John Lamont73,19171.549.

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2017. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.

© 2018 Martin Baxter
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