User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative majority 4

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 37.8%331 43.5%1418-4327
LAB 31.2%232 41.0%240+24256
LIB 8.1%8 7.6%24-26
UKIP 12.9%1 1.9%01-10
Green 3.8%1 1.7%00+01
SNP 4.9%56 3.6%017-1739
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%00+03
Minor 0.8%0 0.2%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaPredicted Change  MP as at 2015
Aberdeen SouthGrampianCONgain fromNAT: Callum McCaig
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineGrampianCONgain fromNAT: Stuart Donaldson
AngusTaysideCONgain fromNAT: Michael Weir
BedfordBedfordshireLABgain fromCON: Richard Fuller
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkBordersCONgain fromNAT: Calum Kerr
Bolton WestWestern ManchesterLABgain fromCON: Chris Green
Brighton KemptownEast SussexLABgain fromCON: Simon Kirby
Bury NorthWestern ManchesterLABgain fromCON: David Nuttall
Cardiff NorthSouth GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Craig Williams
Carshalton and WallingtonSuttonCONgain fromLIB: Tom Brake
ClactonEssexCONgain fromUKIP: Douglas Carswell
Croydon CentralCroydonLABgain fromCON: Gavin Barwell
Derby NorthDerbyshireLABgain fromCON: Amanda Solloway
Dumfries and GallowayDumfries and GallowayCONgain fromNAT: Richard Arkless
Dunbartonshire EastGlasgow areaLIBgain fromNAT: John Nicolson
East LothianEdinburgh areaLABgain fromNAT: George Kerevan
Edinburgh North and LeithEdinburgh areaLABgain fromNAT: Deidre Brock
Edinburgh South WestEdinburgh areaCONgain fromNAT: Joanna Cherry
Edinburgh WestEdinburgh areaLIBgain fromNAT: Michelle Thomson
Fife North EastFifeCONgain fromNAT: Stephen Gethins
GowerWest GlamorganLABgain fromCON: Byron Davies
Leeds North WestWest YorkshireLABgain fromLIB: Greg Mulholland
LincolnLincolnshireLABgain fromCON: Karl McCartney
MorayGrampianCONgain fromNAT: Angus Robertson
Morley and OutwoodWest YorkshireLABgain fromCON: Andrea Jenkyns
Ochil and South PerthshireCentralCONgain fromNAT: Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh
Paisley and Renfrewshire SouthGlasgow areaLABgain fromNAT: Mhairi Black
Perth and North PerthshireTaysideCONgain fromNAT: Peter Wishart
PeterboroughCambridgeshireLABgain fromCON: Stewart Jackson
Plymouth Moor ViewDevonLABgain fromCON: Johnny Mercer
Plymouth Sutton and DevonportDevonLABgain fromCON: Oliver Colvile
Renfrewshire EastGlasgow areaLABgain fromNAT: Kirsten Oswald
Sheffield HallamSouth YorkshireLABgain fromLIB: Nick Clegg
Southampton ItchenHampshireLABgain fromCON: Royston Smith
SouthportMerseysideCONgain fromLIB: John Pugh
StirlingCentralCONgain fromNAT: Steven Paterson
TelfordShropshireLABgain fromCON: Lucy Allan
ThurrockEssexLABgain fromCON: Jackie Doyle-Price
Vale of ClwydClwydLABgain fromCON: James Davies
WaveneySuffolkLABgain fromCON: Peter Aldous

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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