User-defined Prediction

The predicted results in the country, given the National levels of support which you entered, are as follows.

National Prediction: Conservative majority 166

Party2015 Votes2015 SeatsPred VotesGainsLossesNet ChangePred Seats
CON 37.8%331 45.0%770+77408
LAB 31.2%232 24.0%074-74158
LIB 8.1%8 13.0%51+412
UKIP 12.9%1 4.0%01-10
Green 3.8%1 3.0%00+01
SNP 4.9%56 4.4%07-749
PlaidC 0.6%3 0.6%10+14
Minor 0.8%0 6.2%00+00
N.Ire 18 00+018

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List of predicted seat changes

SeatCounty/AreaPredicted Change  MP as at 2015
Aberdeen SouthGrampianCONgain fromNAT: Callum McCaig
Aberdeenshire West and KincardineGrampianCONgain fromNAT: Stuart Donaldson
Alyn and DeesideClwydCONgain fromLAB: Mark Tami
Barrow and FurnessCumbriaCONgain fromLAB: John Woodcock
BassetlawNottinghamshireCONgain fromLAB: John Mann
Batley and SpenWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Jo Cox
Bermondsey and Old SouthwarkSouthwarkLIBgain fromLAB: Neil Coyle
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and SelkirkBordersCONgain fromNAT: Calum Kerr
Birmingham EdgbastonBirminghamCONgain fromLAB: Gisela Stuart
Birmingham ErdingtonBirminghamCONgain fromLAB: Jack Dromey
Birmingham NorthfieldBirminghamCONgain fromLAB: Richard Burden
Birmingham Selly OakBirminghamCONgain fromLAB: Stephen McCabe
Bishop AucklandDurhamCONgain fromLAB: Helen Goodman
Blackpool SouthLancashireCONgain fromLAB: Gordon Marsden
Bolton North EastWestern ManchesterCONgain fromLAB: David Crausby
Brentford and IsleworthHounslowCONgain fromLAB: Ruth Cadbury
BridgendMid GlamorganCONgain fromLAB: Madeleine Moon
Bristol EastBristol areaCONgain fromLAB: Kerry McCarthy
BurnleyLancashireLIBgain fromLAB: Julie Cooper
Bury SouthWestern ManchesterCONgain fromLAB: Ivan Lewis
CambridgeCambridgeshireLIBgain fromLAB: Daniel Zeichner
Chester, City ofCheshireCONgain fromLAB: Chris Matheson
ChorleyLancashireCONgain fromLAB: Lindsay Hoyle
ClactonEssexCONgain fromUKIP: Douglas Carswell
Clwyd SouthClwydCONgain fromLAB: Susan Elan Jones
CopelandCumbriaCONgain fromLAB: Jamie Reed
Coventry North WestCoventry and SolihullCONgain fromLAB: Geoffrey Robinson
Coventry SouthCoventry and SolihullCONgain fromLAB: Jim Cunningham
DarlingtonDurhamCONgain fromLAB: Jenny Chapman
DelynClwydCONgain fromLAB: David Hanson
Derbyshire North EastDerbyshireCONgain fromLAB: Natascha Engel
DewsburyWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Paula Sherriff
Dudley NorthBlack CountryCONgain fromLAB: Ian Austin
Dumfries and GallowayDumfries and GallowayCONgain fromNAT: Richard Arkless
Dunbartonshire EastGlasgow areaLIBgain fromNAT: John Nicolson
Ealing Central and ActonEalingCONgain fromLAB: Rupa Huq
Edinburgh SouthEdinburgh areaCONgain fromLAB: Ian Murray
Edinburgh WestEdinburgh areaLIBgain fromNAT: Michelle Thomson
Ellesmere Port and NestonCheshireCONgain fromLAB: Justin Madders
ElthamGreenwichCONgain fromLAB: Clive Efford
Enfield NorthEnfieldCONgain fromLAB: Joan Ryan
GedlingNottinghamshireCONgain fromLAB: Vernon Coaker
Great GrimsbyHumber areaCONgain fromLAB: Melanie Onn
HalifaxWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Holly Lynch
HammersmithHammersmith and FulhamCONgain fromLAB: Andy Slaughter
Hampstead and KilburnCamdenCONgain fromLAB: Tulip Siddiq
Harrow WestHarrowCONgain fromLAB: Gareth Thomas
HartlepoolTeessideCONgain fromLAB: Iain Wright
HoveEast SussexCONgain fromLAB: Peter Kyle
HyndburnLancashireCONgain fromLAB: Graham Jones
Ilford NorthRedbridgeCONgain fromLAB: Wes Streeting
Lancashire WestLancashireCONgain fromLAB: Rosie Cooper
Lancaster and FleetwoodLancashireCONgain fromLAB: Catherine Smith
Luton SouthBedfordshireCONgain fromLAB: Gavin Shuker
MansfieldNottinghamshireCONgain fromLAB: Alan Meale
Middlesbrough South and Cleveland EastTeessideCONgain fromLAB: Tom Blenkinsop
Newcastle-under-LymeStaffordshireCONgain fromLAB: Paul Farrelly
Newport WestGwentCONgain fromLAB: Paul Flynn
Norwich SouthNorfolkCONgain fromLAB: Clive Lewis
Oldham East and SaddleworthEastern ManchesterCONgain fromLAB: Debbie Abrahams
Penistone and StocksbridgeSouth YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Angela Smith
Renfrewshire EastGlasgow areaCONgain fromNAT: Kirsten Oswald
ScunthorpeHumber areaCONgain fromLAB: Nic Dakin
Southampton TestHampshireCONgain fromLAB: Alan Whitehead
SouthportMerseysideCONgain fromLIB: John Pugh
Stalybridge and HydeEastern ManchesterCONgain fromLAB: Jonathan Reynolds
Stoke-on-Trent CentralStaffordshireCONgain fromLAB: Tristram Hunt
Stoke-on-Trent NorthStaffordshireCONgain fromLAB: Ruth Smeeth
Stoke-on-Trent SouthStaffordshireCONgain fromLAB: Robert Flello
TootingWandsworthCONgain fromLAB: Sadiq Khan
TynemouthNewcastle areaCONgain fromLAB: Alan Campbell
WakefieldWest YorkshireCONgain fromLAB: Mary Creagh
Walsall NorthBlack CountryCONgain fromLAB: David Winnick
Walsall SouthBlack CountryCONgain fromLAB: Valerie Vaz
Westminster NorthCity of WestminsterCONgain fromLAB: Karen Buck
Wirral SouthMerseysideCONgain fromLAB: Alison McGovern
Wirral WestMerseysideCONgain fromLAB: Margaret Greenwood
Wolverhampton North EastBlack CountryCONgain fromLAB: Emma Reynolds
Wolverhampton South WestBlack CountryCONgain fromLAB: Rob Marris
WorkingtonCumbriaCONgain fromLAB: Sue Hayman
Worsley and Eccles SouthCentral ManchesterCONgain fromLAB: Barbara Keeley
WrexhamClwydCONgain fromLAB: Ian Lucas
Ynys MonGwyneddNATgain fromLAB: Albert Owen

Note that the MP's name given is the person who won the seat in 2015. That person may not necessarily be the candidate for the same party in the next election.


© 2017 Martin Baxter
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