Constituency List: England A-B

Aldershot
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Gerald Howarth (CON)
Electorate: 71,469
Turnout: 63.50%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,203	46.72%	47.50%
LIB	15,617	34.41%	21.72%
LAB	5,489	12.09%	22.08%
MIN	2,041	4.50%	4.50%
OTH	1,034	2.28%	4.21%
CON Majority	5,586	12.31%	Pred Maj 25.42%

Chance of winning

CON

91.3%

LIB

2.1%

LAB

6.5%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Aldridge-Brownhills
County/Area: Black Country (West Midlands)
MP: Richard Shepherd (CON)
Electorate: 59,355
Turnout: 65.09%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,913	59.31%	60.06%
LAB	7,647	19.79%	29.40%
LIB	6,833	17.69%	5.47%
OTH	1,241	3.21%	5.07%
CON Majority	15,266	39.51%	Pred Maj 30.66%

Chance of winning

CON

96.1%

LAB

3.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Altrincham and Sale West
County/Area: Central Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Graham Brady (CON)
Electorate: 71,254
Turnout: 69.32%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,176	48.95%	49.80%
LIB	12,581	25.47%	11.60%
LAB	11,073	22.42%	33.33%
OTH	1,563	3.16%	5.27%
CON Majority	11,595	23.47%	Pred Maj 16.47%

Chance of winning

CON

81.5%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

18.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Amber Valley
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Nigel Mills (CON)
Electorate: 70,171
Turnout: 65.49%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,746	38.61%	39.21%
LAB	17,210	37.45%	45.08%
LIB	6,636	14.44%	4.74%
MIN	3,195	6.95%	6.95%
OTH	1,171	2.55%	4.02%
CON Majority	536	1.17%	Pred Maj 5.87%

Chance of winning

CON

33.1%

LAB

66.8%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

LAB Gain

Arundel and South Downs
County/Area: West Sussex (South East)
MP: Nick Herbert (CON)
Electorate: 77,564
Turnout: 72.18%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,333	57.76%	58.53%
LIB	15,642	27.94%	15.25%
LAB	4,835	8.64%	18.62%
MIN	3,172	5.67%	5.67%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.93%
CON Majority	16,691	29.81%	Pred Maj 39.92%

Chance of winning

CON

99.0%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

0.9%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Ashfield
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP: Gloria de Piero (LAB)
Electorate: 77,379
Turnout: 62.29%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,239	33.69%	44.26%
LIB	16,047	33.30%	19.86%
CON	10,698	22.20%	23.02%
MIN	2,781	5.77%	5.77%
OTH	2,431	5.04%	7.08%
LAB Majority	192	0.40%	Pred Maj 21.24%

Chance of winning

LAB

83.5%

LIB

3.7%

CON

11.9%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.9%

Top

Ashford
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Damien Green (CON)
Electorate: 81,269
Turnout: 67.90%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,878	54.14%	54.92%
LIB	12,581	22.80%	10.11%
LAB	9,204	16.68%	26.66%
MIN	2,508	4.54%	4.54%
OTH	1,014	1.84%	3.77%
CON Majority	17,297	31.34%	Pred Maj 28.26%

Chance of winning

CON

95.1%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

4.8%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Ashton under Lyne
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: David Heyes (LAB)
Electorate: 67,564
Turnout: 56.88%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,604	48.41%	56.50%
CON	9,510	24.75%	25.38%
LIB	5,703	14.84%	4.55%
MIN	2,929	7.62%	7.62%
OTH	1,686	4.39%	5.95%
LAB Majority	9,094	23.66%	Pred Maj 31.13%

Chance of winning

LAB

97.8%

CON

2.2%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Aylesbury
County/Area: Buckinghamshire (Essex)
MP: David Liddington (CON)
Electorate: 77,934
Turnout: 68.21%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,736	52.17%	52.99%
LIB	15,118	28.44%	15.15%
LAB	6,695	12.59%	23.05%
MIN	3,613	6.80%	6.80%
OTH	0	0.00%	2.02%
CON Majority	12,618	23.73%	Pred Maj 29.94%

Chance of winning

CON

95.9%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

3.8%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Banbury
County/Area: Oxfordshire (West)
MP: Tony Baldry (CON)
Electorate: 86,986
Turnout: 64.66%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,703	52.81%	53.57%
LIB	11,476	20.41%	8.05%
LAB	10,773	19.16%	28.87%
MIN	2,806	4.99%	4.99%
OTH	1,483	2.64%	4.51%
CON Majority	18,227	32.41%	Pred Maj 24.70%

Chance of winning

CON

92.3%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

7.5%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Barking
County/Area: Barking and Dagenham (North London)
MP: Margaret Hodge (LAB)
Electorate: 73,864
Turnout: 61.39%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,628	54.31%	58.98%
CON	8,073	17.80%	18.17%
MIN	6,620	14.60%	14.60%
LIB	3,719	8.20%	2.27%
OTH	2,303	5.08%	5.98%
LAB Majority	16,555	36.51%	Pred Maj 40.81%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.9%

CON

0.1%

MIN

0.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Barnsley Central
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Eric Illsley (LAB)
Electorate: 65,543
Turnout: 56.45%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,487	47.26%	56.22%
LIB	6,394	17.28%	5.89%
CON	6,388	17.26%	17.96%
OTH	3,425	9.26%	10.99%
MIN	3,307	8.94%	8.94%
LAB Majority	11,093	29.98%	Pred Maj 38.26%

Result shown is original general election result. Mr Dan Jarvis (Lab) held the seat in a by-election on 3 March 2011, after Mr Eric Illsley resigned and pled guilty to charges of false accounting.

Chance of winning

LAB

98.8%

LIB

0.0%

CON

1.2%

OTH

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Barnsley East
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Michael Dugher (LAB)
Electorate: 68,435
Turnout: 56.09%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,059	47.05%	56.46%
LIB	6,969	18.16%	6.19%
CON	6,329	16.49%	17.22%
OTH	3,728	9.71%	11.53%
MIN	3,301	8.60%	8.60%
LAB Majority	11,090	28.89%	Pred Maj 39.24%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.8%

LIB

0.0%

CON

1.2%

OTH

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Barrow and Furness
County/Area: Cumbria (North)
MP: John Woodcock (LAB)
Electorate: 68,758
Turnout: 64.17%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,226	48.11%	53.49%
CON	16,018	36.30%	36.72%
LIB	4,424	10.03%	3.18%
OTH	2,456	5.57%	6.61%
LAB Majority	5,208	11.80%	Pred Maj 16.77%

Chance of winning

LAB

94.1%

CON

5.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Basildon and Billericay
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: John Baron (CON)
Electorate: 65,482
Turnout: 63.48%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,922	52.74%	53.38%
LAB	9,584	23.06%	31.28%
LIB	6,538	15.73%	5.28%
MIN	1,934	4.65%	4.65%
OTH	1,591	3.83%	5.42%
CON Majority	12,338	29.68%	Pred Maj 22.10%

Chance of winning

CON

90.8%

LAB

9.2%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Basildon South and East Thurrock
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Stephen Metcalfe (CON)
Electorate: 71,815
Turnout: 62.29%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,624	43.87%	44.41%
LAB	13,852	30.96%	37.95%
LIB	5,977	13.36%	4.48%
OTH	2,643	5.91%	7.26%
MIN	2,639	5.90%	5.90%
CON Majority	5,772	12.90%	Pred Maj 6.46%

Chance of winning

CON

64.7%

LAB

35.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Basingstoke
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Maria Miller (CON)
Electorate: 75,470
Turnout: 67.12%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,590	50.52%	51.30%
LIB	12,414	24.51%	11.82%
LAB	10,327	20.39%	30.37%
MIN	2,076	4.10%	4.10%
OTH	247	0.49%	2.42%
CON Majority	13,176	26.01%	Pred Maj 20.93%

Chance of winning

CON

89.9%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

9.7%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Bassetlaw
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP: John Mann (LAB)
Electorate: 76,542
Turnout: 64.77%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,018	50.46%	56.40%
CON	16,803	33.89%	34.36%
LIB	5,570	11.24%	3.69%
MIN	1,779	3.59%	3.59%
OTH	407	0.82%	1.97%
LAB Majority	8,215	16.57%	Pred Maj 22.04%

Chance of winning

LAB

96.1%

CON

3.9%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Bath
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP: Don Foster (LIB)
Electorate: 65,603
Turnout: 71.77%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	26,651	56.60%	44.25%
CON	14,768	31.36%	32.12%
LAB	3,251	6.90%	16.62%
OTH	1,296	2.75%	4.63%
MIN	1,120	2.38%	2.38%
LIB Majority	11,883	25.24%	Pred Maj 12.13%

Chance of winning

LIB

82.1%

CON

16.4%

LAB

1.4%

OTH

0.1%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Batley and Spen
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Mike Wood (LAB)
Electorate: 76,732
Turnout: 66.61%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,565	42.19%	50.41%
CON	17,159	33.57%	34.21%
LIB	8,095	15.84%	5.40%
MIN	3,685	7.21%	7.21%
OTH	605	1.18%	2.77%
LAB Majority	4,406	8.62%	Pred Maj 16.19%

Chance of winning

LAB

87.8%

CON

12.2%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Battersea
County/Area: Wandsworth (South London)
MP: Jane Ellison (CON)
Electorate: 74,300
Turnout: 65.67%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,103	47.35%	48.00%
LAB	17,126	35.10%	43.47%
LIB	7,176	14.71%	4.07%
OTH	1,387	2.84%	4.46%
CON Majority	5,977	12.25%	Pred Maj 4.53%

Chance of winning

CON

60.7%

LAB

39.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Beaconsfield
County/Area: Buckinghamshire (Essex)
MP: Dominic Grieve (CON)
Electorate: 74,982
Turnout: 70.00%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,053	61.06%	61.86%
LIB	10,271	19.57%	6.56%
LAB	6,135	11.69%	21.92%
MIN	2,597	4.95%	4.95%
OTH	1,434	2.73%	4.71%
CON Majority	21,782	41.50%	Pred Maj 39.94%

Chance of winning

CON

99.0%

LIB

0.0%

LAB

1.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Beckenham
County/Area: Bromley (South London)
MP: Bob Stewart (CON)
Electorate: 66,219
Turnout: 72.01%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,597	57.87%	58.76%
LIB	9,813	20.58%	6.11%
LAB	6,893	14.45%	25.84%
OTH	3,383	7.09%	9.29%
CON Majority	17,784	37.29%	Pred Maj 32.92%

Chance of winning

CON

95.9%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

3.9%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Bedford
County/Area: Bedfordshire (East Anglia)
MP: Richard Fuller (CON)
Electorate: 68,491
Turnout: 65.85%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,546	38.90%	39.71%
LAB	16,193	35.90%	46.29%
LIB	8,957	19.86%	6.66%
OTH	2,406	5.33%	7.34%
CON Majority	1,353	3.00%	Pred Maj 6.57%

Chance of winning

CON

36.4%

LAB

63.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.4%

Top

LAB Gain

Bedfordshire Mid
County/Area: Bedfordshire (East Anglia)
MP: Nadine Dorries (CON)
Electorate: 76,023
Turnout: 72.21%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,815	52.49%	53.30%
LIB	13,663	24.89%	11.60%
LAB	8,108	14.77%	25.23%
MIN	2,826	5.15%	5.15%
OTH	1,485	2.71%	4.72%
CON Majority	15,152	27.60%	Pred Maj 28.08%

Chance of winning

CON

94.7%

LIB

0.2%

LAB

5.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Bedfordshire North East
County/Area: Bedfordshire (East Anglia)
MP: Alastair Burt (CON)
Electorate: 78,060
Turnout: 71.17%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,989	55.78%	56.60%
LIB	12,047	21.69%	8.39%
LAB	8,957	16.12%	26.58%
MIN	2,294	4.13%	4.13%
OTH	1,265	2.28%	4.30%
CON Majority	18,942	34.10%	Pred Maj 30.02%

Chance of winning

CON

96.1%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

3.8%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Bedfordshire South West
County/Area: Bedfordshire (East Anglia)
MP: Andrew Selous (CON)
Electorate: 76,559
Turnout: 66.32%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,815	52.81%	53.63%
LIB	10,166	20.02%	6.73%
LAB	9,948	19.59%	30.05%
MIN	2,142	4.22%	4.22%
OTH	1,703	3.35%	5.37%
CON Majority	16,649	32.79%	Pred Maj 23.58%

Chance of winning

CON

91.6%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

8.2%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Bermondsey and Old Southwark
County/Area: Southwark (South London)
MP: Simon Hughes (LIB)
Electorate: 77,623
Turnout: 57.52%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	21,590	48.35%	33.89%
LAB	13,060	29.25%	40.63%
CON	7,638	17.11%	17.99%
OTH	2,363	5.29%	7.49%
LIB Majority	8,530	19.10%	Pred Maj 6.74%

Chance of winning

LIB

28.9%

LAB

61.1%

CON

8.7%

OTH

1.3%

Top

LAB Gain

Berwick-upon-Tweed
County/Area: Northumberland (North)
MP: Alan Beith (LIB)
Electorate: 57,403
Turnout: 66.96%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	16,806	43.72%	30.07%
CON	14,116	36.72%	37.56%
LAB	5,061	13.17%	23.90%
MIN	1,243	3.23%	3.23%
OTH	1,213	3.16%	5.23%
LIB Majority	2,690	7.00%	Pred Maj 7.49%

Chance of winning

LIB

23.1%

CON

59.2%

LAB

17.1%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.6%

Top

CON Gain

Bethnal Green and Bow
County/Area: Tower Hamlets (North London)
MP: Rushanara Ali (LAB)
Electorate: 81,243
Turnout: 62.44%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,784	42.94%	54.32%
LIB	10,210	20.13%	5.66%
MIN	8,532	16.82%	16.82%
CON	7,071	13.94%	14.83%
OTH	3,131	6.17%	8.37%
LAB Majority	11,574	22.82%	Pred Maj 37.50%

Chance of winning

LAB

97.8%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

CON

2.1%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Beverley and Holderness
County/Area: Humber area (Humberside)
MP: Graham Stuart (CON)
Electorate: 79,611
Turnout: 66.82%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,063	47.11%	47.92%
LIB	12,076	22.70%	9.52%
LAB	11,224	21.10%	31.47%
OTH	2,756	5.18%	7.18%
MIN	2,080	3.91%	3.91%
CON Majority	12,987	24.41%	Pred Maj 16.45%

Chance of winning

CON

82.9%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

16.6%

OTH

0.2%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Bexhill and Battle
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
MP: Greg Barker (CON)
Electorate: 79,208
Turnout: 68.92%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,147	51.56%	52.34%
LIB	15,267	27.97%	15.28%
LAB	6,524	11.95%	21.93%
MIN	2,699	4.94%	4.94%
OTH	1,950	3.57%	5.50%
CON Majority	12,880	23.60%	Pred Maj 30.41%

Chance of winning

CON

95.7%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

3.9%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Bexleyheath and Crayford
County/Area: Bexley (South London)
MP: David Evennett (CON)
Electorate: 64,985
Turnout: 66.45%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,794	50.47%	51.04%
LAB	11,450	26.52%	33.77%
LIB	5,502	12.74%	3.53%
OTH	4,436	10.27%	11.67%
CON Majority	10,344	23.95%	Pred Maj 17.27%

Chance of winning

CON

82.4%

LAB

17.5%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Birkenhead
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: Frank Field (LAB)
Electorate: 62,773
Turnout: 56.27%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,082	62.51%	72.64%
CON	6,687	18.93%	19.72%
LIB	6,554	18.55%	5.69%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.95%
LAB Majority	15,395	43.58%	Pred Maj 52.92%

Chance of winning

LAB

100.0%

CON

0.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Birmingham Edgbaston
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: Gisela Stuart (LAB)
Electorate: 68,573
Turnout: 60.62%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,894	40.64%	48.99%
CON	15,620	37.57%	38.22%
LIB	6,387	15.36%	4.76%
OTH	2,670	6.42%	8.03%
LAB Majority	1,274	3.06%	Pred Maj 10.76%

Chance of winning

LAB

75.9%

CON

24.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Birmingham Erdington
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: Jack Dromey (LAB)
Electorate: 66,405
Turnout: 53.53%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,869	41.83%	50.61%
CON	11,592	32.61%	33.30%
LIB	5,742	16.15%	5.00%
OTH	3,343	9.40%	11.10%
LAB Majority	3,277	9.22%	Pred Maj 17.31%

Chance of winning

LAB

85.7%

CON

14.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Birmingham Hall Green
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: Roger Godsiff (LAB)
Electorate: 76,580
Turnout: 63.63%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,039	32.92%	43.78%
MIN	12,240	25.12%	25.12%
LIB	11,988	24.60%	10.79%
CON	7,320	15.02%	15.87%
OTH	1,140	2.34%	4.44%
LAB Majority	3,799	7.80%	Pred Maj 18.66%

Chance of winning

LAB

92.3%

MIN

0.7%

LIB

1.0%

CON

5.6%

OTH

0.4%

Top

Birmingham Hodge Hill
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: Liam Byrne (LAB)
Electorate: 75,040
Turnout: 56.60%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,077	51.98%	62.84%
LIB	11,775	27.72%	13.91%
CON	4,936	11.62%	12.47%
OTH	3,684	8.67%	10.77%
LAB Majority	10,302	24.26%	Pred Maj 48.93%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.5%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.5%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Birmingham Ladywood
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: Shabana Mahmood (LAB)
Electorate: 73,646
Turnout: 48.66%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,950	55.67%	66.54%
LIB	9,845	27.47%	13.66%
CON	4,277	11.94%	12.78%
OTH	1,761	4.91%	7.01%
LAB Majority	10,105	28.20%	Pred Maj 52.88%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.8%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.2%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Birmingham Northfield
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: Richard Burden (LAB)
Electorate: 71,338
Turnout: 58.61%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,841	40.28%	48.79%
CON	14,059	33.62%	34.29%
LIB	6,550	15.66%	4.85%
OTH	4,364	10.44%	12.08%
LAB Majority	2,782	6.65%	Pred Maj 14.50%

Chance of winning

LAB

81.5%

CON

18.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Birmingham Perry Barr
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: Khalid Mahmood (LAB)
Electorate: 71,304
Turnout: 58.97%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,142	50.28%	61.15%
LIB	9,234	21.96%	8.15%
CON	8,960	21.31%	22.16%
OTH	2,709	6.44%	8.54%
LAB Majority	11,908	28.32%	Pred Maj 38.99%

Chance of winning

LAB

97.8%

LIB

0.0%

CON

2.2%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Birmingham Selly Oak
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: Stephen McCabe (LAB)
Electorate: 74,805
Turnout: 62.25%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,950	38.55%	49.41%
CON	14,468	31.07%	31.92%
LIB	10,371	22.27%	8.46%
OTH	3,774	8.11%	10.20%
LAB Majority	3,482	7.48%	Pred Maj 17.50%

Chance of winning

LAB

80.9%

CON

18.6%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.4%

Top

Birmingham Yardley
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: John Hemming (LIB)
Electorate: 72,321
Turnout: 56.48%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	16,162	39.56%	25.75%
LAB	13,160	32.22%	43.08%
CON	7,836	19.18%	20.03%
OTH	3,692	9.04%	11.14%
LIB Majority	3,002	7.35%	Pred Maj 17.33%

Chance of winning

LIB

9.5%

LAB

78.3%

CON

10.5%

OTH

1.7%

Top

LAB Gain

Bishop Auckland
County/Area: Durham (North)
MP: Helen Goodman (LAB)
Electorate: 68,370
Turnout: 60.17%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,023	38.95%	49.69%
CON	10,805	26.27%	27.10%
LIB	9,189	22.34%	8.69%
OTH	5,119	12.44%	14.52%
LAB Majority	5,218	12.68%	Pred Maj 22.59%

Chance of winning

LAB

87.0%

CON

11.8%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

1.1%

Top

Blackburn
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Jack Straw (LAB)
Electorate: 72,331
Turnout: 62.90%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,751	47.81%	56.10%
CON	11,895	26.14%	26.79%
LIB	6,918	15.20%	4.66%
OTH	4,935	10.85%	12.45%
LAB Majority	9,856	21.66%	Pred Maj 29.31%

Chance of winning

LAB

95.9%

CON

4.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Blackley and Broughton
County/Area: Central Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Graham Stringer (LAB)
Electorate: 69,489
Turnout: 49.22%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,563	54.27%	62.02%
CON	6,260	18.30%	18.91%
LIB	4,861	14.21%	4.36%
OTH	4,520	13.21%	14.71%
LAB Majority	12,303	35.97%	Pred Maj 43.12%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.5%

CON

0.5%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Blackpool North and Cleveleys
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Paul Maynard (CON)
Electorate: 65,888
Turnout: 61.61%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,964	41.79%	42.36%
LAB	14,814	36.50%	43.75%
LIB	5,400	13.30%	4.08%
OTH	3,413	8.41%	9.81%
CON Majority	2,150	5.30%	Pred Maj 1.39%

Chance of winning

CON

43.3%

LAB

56.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

LAB Gain

Blackpool South
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Gordon Marsden (LAB)
Electorate: 63,025
Turnout: 55.84%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,449	41.06%	48.94%
CON	12,597	35.80%	36.41%
LIB	5,082	14.44%	4.43%
OTH	3,064	8.71%	10.23%
LAB Majority	1,852	5.26%	Pred Maj 12.53%

Chance of winning

LAB

79.9%

CON

19.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Blaydon
County/Area: Newcastle area (North)
MP: David Anderson (LAB)
Electorate: 67,808
Turnout: 66.24%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,297	49.64%	60.38%
LIB	13,180	29.35%	15.70%
CON	7,159	15.94%	16.78%
OTH	2,277	5.07%	7.14%
LAB Majority	9,117	20.30%	Pred Maj 43.61%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.0%

LIB

0.0%

CON

1.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Blyth Valley
County/Area: Northumberland (North)
MP: Ronnie Campbell (LAB)
Electorate: 64,263
Turnout: 60.01%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,156	44.48%	55.22%
LIB	10,488	27.19%	13.55%
CON	6,412	16.63%	17.46%
OTH	4,510	11.69%	13.77%
LAB Majority	6,668	17.29%	Pred Maj 37.76%

Chance of winning

LAB

96.8%

LIB

0.1%

CON

2.8%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
County/Area: West Sussex (South East)
MP: Nick Gibb (CON)
Electorate: 70,812
Turnout: 66.16%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,087	51.41%	52.19%
LIB	11,024	23.53%	10.84%
LAB	6,580	14.04%	24.03%
OTH	5,161	11.02%	12.94%
CON Majority	13,063	27.88%	Pred Maj 28.16%

Chance of winning

CON

93.5%

LIB

0.2%

LAB

6.1%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Bolsover
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Dennis Skinner (LAB)
Electorate: 72,766
Turnout: 60.45%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,994	50.00%	58.19%
CON	10,812	24.58%	25.22%
LIB	6,821	15.51%	5.09%
OTH	4,361	9.91%	11.50%
LAB Majority	11,182	25.42%	Pred Maj 32.98%

Chance of winning

LAB

97.7%

CON

2.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Bolton North East
County/Area: Western Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: David Crausby (LAB)
Electorate: 67,281
Turnout: 64.32%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,870	45.91%	53.00%
CON	15,786	36.48%	37.03%
LIB	5,624	13.00%	3.98%
OTH	1,997	4.61%	5.98%
LAB Majority	4,084	9.44%	Pred Maj 15.97%

Chance of winning

LAB

89.6%

CON

10.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Bolton South East
County/Area: Western Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Yasmin Qureshi (LAB)
Electorate: 69,928
Turnout: 56.64%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,782	47.42%	56.09%
CON	10,148	25.62%	26.30%
LIB	6,289	15.88%	4.87%
OTH	4,385	11.07%	12.75%
LAB Majority	8,634	21.80%	Pred Maj 29.79%

Chance of winning

LAB

95.8%

CON

4.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Bolton West
County/Area: Western Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Julie Hilling (LAB)
Electorate: 71,250
Turnout: 66.77%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,327	38.52%	47.90%
CON	18,235	38.33%	39.06%
LIB	8,177	17.19%	5.27%
OTH	2,837	5.96%	7.77%
LAB Majority	92	0.19%	Pred Maj 8.84%

Chance of winning

LAB

70.2%

CON

29.6%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Bootle
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: Joe Benton (LAB)
Electorate: 71,426
Turnout: 57.79%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,426	66.44%	74.70%
LIB	6,245	15.13%	4.64%
CON	3,678	8.91%	9.55%
MIN	2,514	6.09%	6.09%
OTH	1,414	3.43%	5.02%
LAB Majority	21,181	51.31%	Pred Maj 65.14%

Chance of winning

LAB

100.0%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Boston and Skegness
County/Area: Lincolnshire (Humberside)
MP: Mark Simmonds (CON)
Electorate: 70,529
Turnout: 61.15%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,325	49.45%	50.05%
LAB	8,899	20.64%	28.30%
LIB	6,371	14.77%	5.04%
MIN	4,081	9.46%	9.46%
OTH	2,449	5.68%	7.16%
CON Majority	12,426	28.81%	Pred Maj 21.75%

Chance of winning

CON

89.5%

LAB

10.3%

LIB

0.1%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Bosworth
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
MP: David Tredinnick (CON)
Electorate: 77,296
Turnout: 70.22%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,132	42.62%	43.44%
LIB	18,100	33.35%	19.92%
LAB	8,674	15.98%	26.55%
OTH	4,368	8.05%	10.09%
CON Majority	5,032	9.27%	Pred Maj 16.90%

Chance of winning

CON

79.2%

LIB

2.8%

LAB

17.4%

OTH

0.6%

Top

Bournemouth East
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
MP: Tobias Ellwood (CON)
Electorate: 71,125
Turnout: 61.90%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,320	48.43%	49.19%
LIB	13,592	30.87%	18.52%
LAB	5,836	13.26%	22.97%
OTH	3,276	7.44%	9.32%
CON Majority	7,728	17.55%	Pred Maj 26.21%

Chance of winning

CON

92.1%

LIB

0.7%

LAB

7.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Bournemouth West
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
MP: Conor Burns (CON)
Electorate: 71,753
Turnout: 58.06%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,808	45.15%	45.91%
LIB	13,225	31.75%	19.39%
LAB	6,171	14.81%	24.53%
OTH	3,455	8.29%	10.17%
CON Majority	5,583	13.40%	Pred Maj 21.37%

Chance of winning

CON

86.5%

LIB

1.6%

LAB

11.6%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Bracknell
County/Area: Berkshire (South)
MP: Phillip Lee (CON)
Electorate: 76,885
Turnout: 67.81%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,327	52.41%	53.19%
LIB	11,623	22.29%	9.61%
LAB	8,755	16.79%	26.78%
OTH	4,431	8.50%	10.43%
CON Majority	15,704	30.12%	Pred Maj 26.42%

Chance of winning

CON

92.8%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

7.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Bradford East
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: David Ward (LIB)
Electorate: 65,116
Turnout: 62.13%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	13,637	33.71%	20.52%
LAB	13,272	32.81%	43.18%
CON	10,860	26.84%	27.65%
OTH	2,688	6.64%	8.65%
LIB Majority	365	0.90%	Pred Maj 15.52%

Chance of winning

LIB

3.5%

LAB

76.1%

CON

19.5%

OTH

0.9%

Top

LAB Gain

Bradford South
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Gerry Sutcliffe (LAB)
Electorate: 63,580
Turnout: 59.76%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,682	41.27%	50.76%
CON	11,060	29.11%	29.85%
LIB	6,948	18.29%	6.23%
OTH	4,305	11.33%	13.16%
LAB Majority	4,622	12.16%	Pred Maj 20.91%

Chance of winning

LAB

88.5%

CON

11.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.4%

Top

Bradford West
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Marsha Singh (LAB)
Electorate: 62,519
Turnout: 64.90%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,401	45.35%	51.40%
CON	12,638	31.15%	31.62%
LIB	4,732	11.66%	3.98%
OTH	3,435	8.47%	9.63%
MIN	1,370	3.38%	3.38%
LAB Majority	5,763	14.20%	Pred Maj 19.78%

Chance of winning

LAB

94.6%

CON

5.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Braintree
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Brooks Newmark (CON)
Electorate: 71,162
Turnout: 69.14%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,901	52.64%	53.41%
LAB	9,780	19.88%	29.70%
LIB	9,247	18.79%	6.30%
OTH	4,275	8.69%	10.59%
CON Majority	16,121	32.76%	Pred Maj 23.70%

Chance of winning

CON

90.7%

LAB

9.1%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Brent Central
County/Area: Brent (North London)
MP: Sarah Teather (LIB)
Electorate: 74,076
Turnout: 61.18%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	20,026	44.19%	29.72%
LAB	18,681	41.22%	52.60%
CON	5,067	11.18%	12.07%
OTH	1,549	3.42%	5.62%
LIB Majority	1,345	2.97%	Pred Maj 22.88%

Chance of winning

LIB

7.6%

LAB

89.7%

CON

2.3%

OTH

0.4%

Top

LAB Gain

Brent North
County/Area: Brent (North London)
MP: Barry Gardiner (LAB)
Electorate: 83,896
Turnout: 62.34%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,514	46.87%	56.54%
CON	16,486	31.52%	32.28%
LIB	8,879	16.98%	4.70%
OTH	2,419	4.63%	6.49%
LAB Majority	8,028	15.35%	Pred Maj 24.26%

Chance of winning

LAB

93.3%

CON

6.7%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Brentford and Isleworth
County/Area: Hounslow (South London)
MP: Mary Macleod (CON)
Electorate: 83,546
Turnout: 64.35%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,022	37.24%	38.13%
LAB	18,064	33.60%	44.98%
LIB	12,718	23.65%	9.19%
OTH	2,961	5.51%	7.71%
CON Majority	1,958	3.64%	Pred Maj 6.85%

Chance of winning

CON

36.7%

LAB

62.5%

LIB

0.2%

OTH

0.6%

Top

LAB Gain

Brentwood and Ongar
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Eric Pickles (CON)
Electorate: 73,224
Turnout: 69.09%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,793	56.91%	57.73%
LIB	11,872	23.47%	10.17%
LAB	4,992	9.87%	20.32%
OTH	2,898	5.73%	7.75%
MIN	2,037	4.03%	4.03%
CON Majority	16,921	33.45%	Pred Maj 37.40%

Chance of winning

CON

97.7%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

2.2%

OTH

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Bridgwater and West Somerset
County/Area: Somerset (South West)
MP: Ian Liddell-Grainger (CON)
Electorate: 76,560
Turnout: 71.18%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,675	45.28%	46.04%
LIB	15,426	28.31%	15.96%
LAB	9,332	17.13%	26.84%
OTH	5,060	9.29%	11.16%
CON Majority	9,249	16.97%	Pred Maj 19.20%

Chance of winning

CON

84.7%

LIB

0.9%

LAB

14.1%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Brigg and Goole
County/Area: Humber area (Humberside)
MP: Andrew Percy (CON)
Electorate: 67,345
Turnout: 65.15%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,680	44.86%	45.45%
LAB	14,533	33.12%	40.71%
LIB	6,414	14.62%	4.98%
OTH	3,247	7.40%	8.86%
CON Majority	5,147	11.73%	Pred Maj 4.74%

Chance of winning

CON

59.3%

LAB

40.6%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Brighton Kemptown
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
MP: Simon Kirby (CON)
Electorate: 66,017
Turnout: 64.69%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,217	37.97%	38.68%
LAB	14,889	34.86%	43.85%
LIB	7,691	18.01%	6.58%
MIN	2,330	5.46%	5.46%
OTH	1,578	3.70%	5.43%
CON Majority	1,328	3.11%	Pred Maj 5.18%

Chance of winning

CON

37.6%

LAB

62.1%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

LAB Gain

Brighton Pavilion
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
MP: Caroline Lucas (MIN)
Electorate: 74,004
Turnout: 70.04%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
MIN	16,238	31.33%	31.33%
LAB	14,986	28.91%	35.81%
CON	12,275	23.68%	24.22%
LIB	7,159	13.81%	5.05%
OTH	1,176	2.27%	3.60%
MIN Majority	1,252	2.42%	Pred Maj 4.48%

Chance of winning

MIN

15.6%

LAB

71.5%

CON

12.7%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

LAB Gain

Bristol East
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP: Kerry McCarthy (LAB)
Electorate: 69,448
Turnout: 64.82%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,471	36.59%	46.31%
CON	12,749	28.32%	29.08%
LIB	10,993	24.42%	12.07%
OTH	4,804	10.67%	12.55%
LAB Majority	3,722	8.27%	Pred Maj 17.23%

Chance of winning

LAB

80.2%

CON

17.7%

LIB

0.6%

OTH

1.5%

Top

Bristol North West
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP: Charlotte Leslie (CON)
Electorate: 73,469
Turnout: 68.51%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,115	37.97%	38.73%
LIB	15,841	31.47%	19.12%
LAB	13,059	25.94%	35.66%
OTH	2,321	4.61%	6.49%
CON Majority	3,274	6.50%	Pred Maj 3.07%

Chance of winning

CON

54.6%

LIB

2.5%

LAB

42.4%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Bristol South
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP: Dawn Primarolo (LAB)
Electorate: 78,579
Turnout: 61.56%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,600	38.45%	48.17%
LIB	13,866	28.66%	16.31%
CON	11,086	22.92%	23.67%
OTH	4,825	9.97%	11.85%
LAB Majority	4,734	9.79%	Pred Maj 24.49%

Chance of winning

LAB

87.4%

LIB

1.2%

CON

10.0%

OTH

1.4%

Top

Bristol West
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP: Stephen Williams (LIB)
Electorate: 82,728
Turnout: 66.90%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	26,593	48.05%	35.70%
LAB	15,227	27.51%	37.23%
CON	10,169	18.37%	19.13%
OTH	3,358	6.07%	7.94%
LIB Majority	11,366	20.54%	Pred Maj 1.53%

Chance of winning

LIB

39.0%

LAB

52.8%

CON

7.4%

OTH

0.8%

Top

LAB Gain

Broadland
County/Area: Norfolk (East Anglia)
MP: Keith Simpson (CON)
Electorate: 73,168
Turnout: 71.99%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,338	46.20%	47.02%
LIB	17,046	32.36%	19.07%
LAB	7,287	13.83%	24.29%
OTH	4,005	7.60%	9.62%
CON Majority	7,292	13.84%	Pred Maj 22.73%

Chance of winning

CON

88.3%

LIB

1.6%

LAB

9.8%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Bromley and Chislehurst
County/Area: Bromley (South London)
MP: Bob Neill (CON)
Electorate: 65,427
Turnout: 67.31%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,569	53.52%	54.41%
LIB	9,669	21.96%	7.49%
LAB	7,295	16.57%	27.95%
OTH	3,504	7.96%	10.15%
CON Majority	13,900	31.56%	Pred Maj 26.46%

Chance of winning

CON

92.2%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

7.6%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Bromsgrove
County/Area: Hereford and Worcestershire (Severn)
MP: Sajid Javid (CON)
Electorate: 73,086
Turnout: 70.64%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,558	43.69%	44.52%
LAB	11,250	21.79%	32.44%
LIB	10,124	19.61%	6.07%
OTH	7,698	14.91%	16.97%
CON Majority	11,308	21.90%	Pred Maj 12.08%

Chance of winning

CON

71.7%

LAB

26.9%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

1.3%

Top

Broxbourne
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Essex)
MP: Charles Walker (CON)
Electorate: 71,391
Turnout: 63.95%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,844	58.79%	59.34%
LAB	8,040	17.61%	24.60%
LIB	6,107	13.38%	4.49%
OTH	4,667	10.22%	11.57%
CON Majority	18,804	41.18%	Pred Maj 34.74%

Chance of winning

CON

97.1%

LAB

2.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Broxtowe
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP: Anna Soubry (CON)
Electorate: 72,042
Turnout: 73.19%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,585	39.04%	39.74%
LAB	20,196	38.30%	47.23%
LIB	8,907	16.89%	5.55%
OTH	3,039	5.76%	7.49%
CON Majority	389	0.74%	Pred Maj 7.49%

Chance of winning

CON

31.5%

LAB

68.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

LAB Gain

Buckingham
County/Area: Buckinghamshire (Essex)
MP: John Bercow (CON)
Electorate: 74,996
Turnout: 64.45%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,860	47.29%	47.29%
OTH	15,144	31.33%	31.33%
MIN	10,331	21.37%	21.37%
CON Majority	7,716	15.96%	Pred Maj 15.96%

Chance of winning

CON

90.5%

OTH

6.9%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Burnley
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Gordon Birtwistle (LIB)
Electorate: 66,616
Turnout: 62.82%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	14,932	35.68%	21.82%
LAB	13,114	31.34%	42.25%
CON	6,950	16.61%	17.46%
MIN	3,747	8.95%	8.95%
OTH	3,102	7.41%	9.52%
LIB Majority	1,818	4.34%	Pred Maj 20.43%

Chance of winning

LIB

6.9%

LAB

82.6%

CON

9.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

1.5%

Top

LAB Gain

Burton
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Andrew Griffiths (CON)
Electorate: 74,874
Turnout: 66.54%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,188	44.53%	45.20%
LAB	15,884	31.88%	40.48%
LIB	7,891	15.84%	4.90%
OTH	3,860	7.75%	9.41%
CON Majority	6,304	12.65%	Pred Maj 4.72%

Chance of winning

CON

58.9%

LAB

40.8%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Bury North
County/Area: Western Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: David Nuttall (CON)
Electorate: 66,759
Turnout: 67.35%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,070	40.19%	40.91%
LAB	15,827	35.20%	44.48%
LIB	7,645	17.00%	5.21%
OTH	3,419	7.60%	9.40%
CON Majority	2,243	4.99%	Pred Maj 3.56%

Chance of winning

CON

40.5%

LAB

59.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.4%

Top

LAB Gain

Bury South
County/Area: Western Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Ivan Lewis (LAB)
Electorate: 73,544
Turnout: 65.63%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,508	40.42%	50.36%
CON	16,216	33.60%	34.37%
LIB	8,796	18.22%	5.59%
OTH	3,747	7.76%	9.68%
LAB Majority	3,292	6.82%	Pred Maj 15.99%

Chance of winning

LAB

81.1%

CON

18.7%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Bury St Edmunds
County/Area: Suffolk (East Anglia)
MP: David Ruffley (CON)
Electorate: 84,727
Turnout: 69.30%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,899	47.51%	48.33%
LIB	15,519	26.43%	13.14%
LAB	9,776	16.65%	27.11%
OTH	5,524	9.41%	11.43%
CON Majority	12,380	21.08%	Pred Maj 21.22%

Chance of winning

CON

87.7%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

11.7%

OTH

0.3%

Top