Constituency List: England A-B

Aldershot
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Gerald Howarth (CON)
Electorate: 71,469
Turnout: 63.50%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,203	46.72%	38.23%
LIB	15,617	34.41%	19.92%
LAB	5,489	12.09%	21.46%
UKIP	2,041	4.50%	16.45%
OTH	1,034	2.28%	3.95%
CON Majority	5,586	12.31%	Pred Maj 16.78%

Chance of winning

CON

77.2%

LIB

4.5%

LAB

14.7%

UKIP

3.6%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Aldridge-Brownhills
County/Area: Black Country (West Midlands)
MP: Richard Shepherd (CON)
Electorate: 59,355
Turnout: 65.09%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,913	59.31%	50.68%
LAB	7,647	19.79%	28.99%
LIB	6,833	17.69%	3.74%
OTH	1,241	3.21%	4.85%
UKIP	0	0.00%	11.74%
CON Majority	15,266	39.51%	Pred Maj 21.69%

Chance of winning

CON

89.3%

LAB

10.1%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.5%

Top

Altrincham and Sale West
County/Area: Central Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Graham Brady (CON)
Electorate: 71,254
Turnout: 69.32%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,176	48.95%	39.65%
LIB	12,581	25.47%	9.63%
LAB	11,073	22.42%	32.66%
UKIP	1,563	3.16%	16.24%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.83%
CON Majority	11,595	23.47%	Pred Maj 6.99%

Chance of winning

CON

64.3%

LIB

0.5%

LAB

32.4%

UKIP

2.8%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Amber Valley
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Nigel Mills (CON)
Electorate: 70,171
Turnout: 65.49%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,746	38.61%	30.08%
LAB	17,210	37.45%	45.43%
LIB	6,636	14.44%	3.36%
MIN	3,195	6.95%	6.95%
UKIP	906	1.97%	12.17%
OTH	265	0.58%	2.00%
CON Majority	536	1.17%	Pred Maj 15.35%

Chance of winning

CON

17.6%

LAB

81.8%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

UKIP

0.6%

OTH

0.0%

Top

LAB Gain

Arundel and South Downs
County/Area: West Sussex (South East)
MP: Nick Herbert (CON)
Electorate: 77,564
Turnout: 72.18%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,333	57.76%	49.27%
LIB	15,642	27.94%	13.45%
LAB	4,835	8.64%	18.00%
UKIP	3,172	5.67%	17.62%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.67%
CON Majority	16,691	29.81%	Pred Maj 31.27%

Chance of winning

CON

94.8%

LIB

0.5%

LAB

3.2%

UKIP

1.5%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Ashfield
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP: Gloria de Piero (LAB)
Electorate: 77,379
Turnout: 62.29%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,239	33.69%	43.42%
LIB	16,047	33.30%	17.95%
CON	10,698	22.20%	13.66%
MIN	2,781	5.77%	5.77%
OTH	1,498	3.11%	4.84%
UKIP	933	1.94%	14.35%
LAB Majority	192	0.40%	Pred Maj 25.47%

Chance of winning

LAB

89.3%

LIB

2.8%

CON

4.5%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

UKIP

3.2%

Top

Ashford
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Damien Green (CON)
Electorate: 81,269
Turnout: 67.90%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,878	54.14%	45.65%
LIB	12,581	22.80%	8.30%
LAB	9,204	16.68%	26.04%
UKIP	2,508	4.54%	16.50%
OTH	1,014	1.84%	3.51%
CON Majority	17,297	31.34%	Pred Maj 19.62%

Chance of winning

CON

87.2%

LIB

0.2%

LAB

11.1%

UKIP

1.5%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Ashton under Lyne
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: David Heyes (LAB)
Electorate: 67,564
Turnout: 56.88%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,604	48.41%	56.98%
CON	9,510	24.75%	15.45%
LIB	5,703	14.84%	3.09%
MIN	2,929	7.62%	7.62%
UKIP	1,686	4.39%	15.33%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.53%
LAB Majority	9,094	23.66%	Pred Maj 41.54%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.4%

CON

0.5%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

UKIP

0.1%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Aylesbury
County/Area: Buckinghamshire (Essex)
MP: David Liddington (CON)
Electorate: 77,934
Turnout: 68.21%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,736	52.17%	43.69%
LIB	15,118	28.44%	13.25%
LAB	6,695	12.59%	22.23%
UKIP	3,613	6.80%	19.11%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.72%
CON Majority	12,618	23.73%	Pred Maj 21.45%

Chance of winning

CON

88.1%

LIB

0.6%

LAB

8.5%

UKIP

2.8%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Banbury
County/Area: Oxfordshire (West)
MP: Tony Baldry (CON)
Electorate: 86,986
Turnout: 64.66%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,703	52.81%	44.31%
LIB	11,476	20.41%	6.30%
LAB	10,773	19.16%	28.37%
UKIP	2,806	4.99%	16.75%
OTH	1,483	2.64%	4.28%
CON Majority	18,227	32.41%	Pred Maj 15.94%

Chance of winning

CON

81.3%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

16.9%

UKIP

1.7%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Barking
County/Area: Barking and Dagenham (North London)
MP: Margaret Hodge (LAB)
Electorate: 73,864
Turnout: 61.39%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,628	54.31%	60.32%
CON	8,073	17.80%	9.83%
MIN	6,620	14.60%	14.60%
LIB	3,719	8.20%	1.42%
UKIP	1,300	2.87%	10.54%
OTH	1,003	2.21%	3.28%
LAB Majority	16,555	36.51%	Pred Maj 45.72%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.9%

CON

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

0.1%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Barnsley Central
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Eric Illsley (LAB)
Electorate: 65,543
Turnout: 56.45%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,487	47.26%	55.64%
LIB	6,394	17.28%	4.27%
CON	6,388	17.26%	9.69%
MIN	3,307	8.94%	8.94%
UKIP	1,727	4.67%	15.37%
OTH	1,698	4.59%	6.08%
LAB Majority	11,093	29.98%	Pred Maj 40.27%

Result shown is original general election result. Mr Dan Jarvis (Lab) held the seat in a by-election on 3 March 2011, after Mr Eric Illsley resigned and pled guilty to charges of false accounting.

Chance of winning

LAB

99.4%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.3%

MIN

0.0%

UKIP

0.3%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Barnsley East
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Michael Dugher (LAB)
Electorate: 68,435
Turnout: 56.09%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,059	47.05%	55.56%
LIB	6,969	18.16%	4.48%
CON	6,329	16.49%	9.26%
MIN	3,301	8.60%	8.60%
OTH	1,997	5.20%	6.72%
UKIP	1,731	4.51%	15.38%
LAB Majority	11,090	28.89%	Pred Maj 40.18%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.4%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.3%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.3%

Top

Barrow and Furness
County/Area: Cumbria (North)
MP: John Woodcock (LAB)
Electorate: 68,758
Turnout: 64.17%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,226	48.11%	54.97%
CON	16,018	36.30%	27.27%
LIB	4,424	10.03%	2.21%
OTH	1,615	3.66%	4.88%
UKIP	841	1.91%	10.67%
LAB Majority	5,208	11.80%	Pred Maj 27.70%

Chance of winning

LAB

97.0%

CON

2.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.1%

Top

Basildon and Billericay
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: John Baron (CON)
Electorate: 65,482
Turnout: 63.48%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,922	52.74%	44.25%
LAB	9,584	23.06%	31.38%
LIB	6,538	15.73%	3.79%
MIN	1,934	4.65%	4.65%
UKIP	1,591	3.83%	14.45%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.48%
CON Majority	12,338	29.68%	Pred Maj 12.87%

Chance of winning

CON

78.0%

LAB

21.3%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

UKIP

0.7%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Basildon South and East Thurrock
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Stephen Metcalfe (CON)
Electorate: 71,815
Turnout: 62.29%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,624	43.87%	35.38%
LAB	13,852	30.96%	38.55%
LIB	5,977	13.36%	3.22%
OTH	2,643	5.91%	7.26%
UKIP	2,639	5.90%	15.59%
CON Majority	5,772	12.90%	Pred Maj 3.17%

Chance of winning

CON

43.3%

LAB

55.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

1.4%

Top

LAB Gain

Basingstoke
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Maria Miller (CON)
Electorate: 75,470
Turnout: 67.12%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,590	50.52%	42.03%
LIB	12,414	24.51%	10.01%
LAB	10,327	20.39%	29.75%
UKIP	2,076	4.10%	16.05%
OTH	247	0.49%	2.16%
CON Majority	13,176	26.01%	Pred Maj 12.28%

Chance of winning

CON

75.3%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

22.8%

UKIP

1.8%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Bassetlaw
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP: John Mann (LAB)
Electorate: 76,542
Turnout: 64.77%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,018	50.46%	57.45%
CON	16,803	33.89%	25.36%
LIB	5,570	11.24%	2.62%
UKIP	1,779	3.59%	12.51%
OTH	407	0.82%	2.07%
LAB Majority	8,215	16.57%	Pred Maj 32.09%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.3%

CON

1.6%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

0.1%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Bath
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP: Don Foster (LIB)
Electorate: 65,603
Turnout: 71.77%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	26,651	56.60%	42.49%
CON	14,768	31.36%	22.86%
LAB	3,251	6.90%	16.12%
MIN	1,120	2.38%	2.38%
UKIP	890	1.89%	13.65%
OTH	406	0.86%	2.51%
LIB Majority	11,883	25.24%	Pred Maj 19.64%

Chance of winning

LIB

87.3%

CON

6.5%

LAB

3.7%

MIN

0.0%

UKIP

2.5%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Batley and Spen
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Mike Wood (LAB)
Electorate: 76,732
Turnout: 66.61%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,565	42.19%	50.62%
CON	17,159	33.57%	24.80%
LIB	8,095	15.84%	3.91%
MIN	3,685	7.21%	7.21%
OTH	605	1.18%	2.69%
UKIP	0	0.00%	10.76%
LAB Majority	4,406	8.62%	Pred Maj 25.82%

Chance of winning

LAB

93.8%

CON

6.0%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.2%

Top

Battersea
County/Area: Wandsworth (South London)
MP: Jane Ellison (CON)
Electorate: 74,300
Turnout: 65.67%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,103	47.35%	38.39%
LAB	17,126	35.10%	43.70%
LIB	7,176	14.71%	2.55%
OTH	882	1.81%	3.34%
UKIP	505	1.04%	12.01%
CON Majority	5,977	12.25%	Pred Maj 5.30%

Chance of winning

CON

40.4%

LAB

59.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.5%

Top

LAB Gain

Beaconsfield
County/Area: Buckinghamshire (Essex)
MP: Dominic Grieve (CON)
Electorate: 74,982
Turnout: 70.00%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,053	61.06%	52.58%
LIB	10,271	19.57%	4.71%
LAB	6,135	11.69%	21.20%
UKIP	2,597	4.95%	17.09%
OTH	1,434	2.73%	4.43%
CON Majority	21,782	41.50%	Pred Maj 31.38%

Chance of winning

CON

95.7%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

3.1%

UKIP

1.1%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Beckenham
County/Area: Bromley (South London)
MP: Bob Stewart (CON)
Electorate: 66,219
Turnout: 72.01%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,597	57.87%	48.92%
LIB	9,813	20.58%	4.05%
LAB	6,893	14.45%	24.83%
OTH	1,832	3.84%	5.69%
UKIP	1,551	3.25%	16.50%
CON Majority	17,784	37.29%	Pred Maj 24.08%

Chance of winning

CON

89.1%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

9.2%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

1.6%

Top

Bedford
County/Area: Bedfordshire (East Anglia)
MP: Richard Fuller (CON)
Electorate: 68,491
Turnout: 65.85%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,546	38.90%	30.42%
LAB	16,193	35.90%	45.50%
LIB	8,957	19.86%	4.78%
OTH	1,270	2.82%	4.53%
UKIP	1,136	2.52%	14.77%
CON Majority	1,353	3.00%	Pred Maj 15.09%

Chance of winning

CON

19.3%

LAB

78.8%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

1.8%

Top

LAB Gain

Bedfordshire Mid
County/Area: Bedfordshire (East Anglia)
MP: Nadine Dorries (CON)
Electorate: 76,023
Turnout: 72.21%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,815	52.49%	44.00%
LIB	13,663	24.89%	9.70%
LAB	8,108	14.77%	24.41%
UKIP	2,826	5.15%	17.46%
OTH	1,485	2.71%	4.43%
CON Majority	15,152	27.60%	Pred Maj 19.59%

Chance of winning

CON

86.7%

LIB

0.2%

LAB

11.0%

UKIP

2.1%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Bedfordshire North East
County/Area: Bedfordshire (East Anglia)
MP: Alastair Burt (CON)
Electorate: 78,060
Turnout: 71.17%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,989	55.78%	47.30%
LIB	12,047	21.69%	6.50%
LAB	8,957	16.12%	25.76%
UKIP	2,294	4.13%	16.44%
OTH	1,265	2.28%	4.00%
CON Majority	18,942	34.10%	Pred Maj 21.53%

Chance of winning

CON

89.1%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

9.3%

UKIP

1.5%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Bedfordshire South West
County/Area: Bedfordshire (East Anglia)
MP: Andrew Selous (CON)
Electorate: 76,559
Turnout: 66.32%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,815	52.81%	44.33%
LIB	10,166	20.02%	4.84%
LAB	9,948	19.59%	29.23%
UKIP	2,142	4.22%	16.53%
OTH	1,703	3.35%	5.07%
CON Majority	16,649	32.79%	Pred Maj 15.09%

Chance of winning

CON

79.9%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

18.5%

UKIP

1.5%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Bermondsey and Old Southwark
County/Area: Southwark (South London)
MP: Simon Hughes (LIB)
Electorate: 77,623
Turnout: 57.52%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	21,590	48.35%	31.83%
LAB	13,060	29.25%	39.10%
CON	7,638	17.11%	9.45%
OTH	2,363	5.29%	7.05%
UKIP	0	0.00%	12.58%
LIB Majority	8,530	19.10%	Pred Maj 7.27%

Chance of winning

LIB

25.9%

LAB

67.2%

CON

2.8%

OTH

0.3%

UKIP

3.8%

Top

LAB Gain

Berwick-upon-Tweed
County/Area: Northumberland (North)
MP: Alan Beith (LIB)
Electorate: 57,403
Turnout: 66.96%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	16,806	43.72%	28.13%
CON	14,116	36.72%	27.69%
LAB	5,061	13.17%	23.20%
UKIP	1,243	3.23%	16.04%
OTH	1,213	3.16%	4.95%
LIB Majority	2,690	7.00%	Pred Maj 0.44%

Chance of winning

LIB

28.0%

CON

37.0%

LAB

27.2%

UKIP

7.7%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Bethnal Green and Bow
County/Area: Tower Hamlets (North London)
MP: Rushanara Ali (LAB)
Electorate: 81,243
Turnout: 62.44%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,784	42.94%	52.22%
LIB	10,210	20.13%	3.60%
MIN	8,532	16.82%	16.82%
CON	7,071	13.94%	7.70%
OTH	3,131	6.17%	7.83%
UKIP	0	0.00%	11.84%
LAB Majority	11,574	22.82%	Pred Maj 35.40%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.1%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

CON

0.6%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.3%

Top

Beverley and Holderness
County/Area: Humber area (Humberside)
MP: Graham Stuart (CON)
Electorate: 79,611
Turnout: 66.82%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,063	47.11%	38.34%
LIB	12,076	22.70%	7.64%
LAB	11,224	21.10%	30.80%
MIN	2,080	3.91%	3.91%
UKIP	1,845	3.47%	15.86%
OTH	911	1.71%	3.44%
CON Majority	12,987	24.41%	Pred Maj 7.54%

Chance of winning

CON

66.2%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

30.7%

MIN

0.0%

UKIP

2.7%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Bexhill and Battle
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
MP: Greg Barker (CON)
Electorate: 79,208
Turnout: 68.92%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,147	51.56%	43.08%
LIB	15,267	27.97%	13.47%
LAB	6,524	11.95%	21.31%
MIN	2,699	4.94%	4.94%
OTH	1,950	3.57%	5.24%
UKIP	0	0.00%	11.95%
CON Majority	12,880	23.60%	Pred Maj 21.76%

Chance of winning

CON

88.8%

LIB

0.8%

LAB

9.1%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

1.3%

Top

Bexleyheath and Crayford
County/Area: Bexley (South London)
MP: David Evennett (CON)
Electorate: 64,985
Turnout: 66.45%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,794	50.47%	41.51%
LAB	11,450	26.52%	34.45%
LIB	5,502	12.74%	2.21%
OTH	2,879	6.67%	8.08%
UKIP	1,557	3.61%	13.74%
CON Majority	10,344	23.95%	Pred Maj 7.06%

Chance of winning

CON

66.7%

LAB

32.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.9%

Top

Birkenhead
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: Frank Field (LAB)
Electorate: 62,773
Turnout: 56.27%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,082	62.51%	72.09%
CON	6,687	18.93%	10.13%
LIB	6,554	18.55%	3.86%
UKIP	0	0.00%	12.22%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.71%
LAB Majority	15,395	43.58%	Pred Maj 59.87%

Chance of winning

LAB

100.0%

CON

0.0%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Birmingham Edgbaston
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: Gisela Stuart (LAB)
Electorate: 68,573
Turnout: 60.62%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,894	40.64%	49.09%
CON	15,620	37.57%	28.95%
LIB	6,387	15.36%	3.25%
OTH	1,938	4.66%	6.17%
UKIP	732	1.76%	12.55%
LAB Majority	1,274	3.06%	Pred Maj 20.14%

Chance of winning

LAB

88.0%

CON

11.6%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.4%

Top

Birmingham Erdington
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: Jack Dromey (LAB)
Electorate: 66,405
Turnout: 53.53%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,869	41.83%	50.53%
CON	11,592	32.61%	23.99%
LIB	5,742	16.15%	3.41%
OTH	2,501	7.04%	8.59%
UKIP	842	2.37%	13.48%
LAB Majority	3,277	9.22%	Pred Maj 26.55%

Chance of winning

LAB

93.2%

CON

6.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.5%

Top

Birmingham Hall Green
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: Roger Godsiff (LAB)
Electorate: 76,580
Turnout: 63.63%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,039	32.92%	41.98%
MIN	12,240	25.12%	25.12%
LIB	11,988	24.60%	8.83%
CON	7,320	15.02%	8.54%
UKIP	950	1.95%	13.52%
OTH	190	0.39%	2.01%
LAB Majority	3,799	7.80%	Pred Maj 16.86%

Chance of winning

LAB

92.9%

MIN

2.0%

LIB

0.6%

CON

1.6%

UKIP

2.9%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Birmingham Hodge Hill
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: Liam Byrne (LAB)
Electorate: 75,040
Turnout: 56.60%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,077	51.98%	60.45%
LIB	11,775	27.72%	11.95%
CON	4,936	11.62%	6.61%
OTH	2,970	6.99%	8.50%
UKIP	714	1.68%	12.49%
LAB Majority	10,302	24.26%	Pred Maj 47.96%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.8%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.2%

Top

Birmingham Ladywood
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: Shabana Mahmood (LAB)
Electorate: 73,646
Turnout: 48.66%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,950	55.67%	64.20%
LIB	9,845	27.47%	11.70%
CON	4,277	11.94%	6.79%
UKIP	902	2.52%	13.40%
OTH	859	2.40%	3.92%
LAB Majority	10,105	28.20%	Pred Maj 50.80%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.9%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

UKIP

0.1%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Birmingham Northfield
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: Richard Burden (LAB)
Electorate: 71,338
Turnout: 58.61%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,841	40.28%	48.82%
CON	14,059	33.62%	25.00%
LIB	6,550	15.66%	3.31%
OTH	3,001	7.18%	8.70%
UKIP	1,363	3.26%	14.17%
LAB Majority	2,782	6.65%	Pred Maj 23.82%

Chance of winning

LAB

91.1%

CON

8.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

0.5%

Top

Birmingham Perry Barr
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: Khalid Mahmood (LAB)
Electorate: 71,304
Turnout: 58.97%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,142	50.28%	60.22%
LIB	9,234	21.96%	6.19%
CON	8,960	21.31%	12.68%
UKIP	1,675	3.98%	16.67%
OTH	1,034	2.46%	4.23%
LAB Majority	11,908	28.32%	Pred Maj 43.55%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.2%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.5%

UKIP

0.3%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Birmingham Selly Oak
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: Stephen McCabe (LAB)
Electorate: 74,805
Turnout: 62.25%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,950	38.55%	48.49%
CON	14,468	31.07%	22.45%
LIB	10,371	22.27%	6.50%
OTH	2,643	5.68%	7.45%
UKIP	1,131	2.43%	15.12%
LAB Majority	3,482	7.48%	Pred Maj 26.04%

Chance of winning

LAB

89.8%

CON

8.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

UKIP

1.7%

Top

Birmingham Yardley
County/Area: Birmingham (West Midlands)
MP: John Hemming (LIB)
Electorate: 72,321
Turnout: 56.48%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	16,162	39.56%	23.79%
LAB	13,160	32.22%	42.01%
CON	7,836	19.18%	10.91%
OTH	2,502	6.12%	7.87%
UKIP	1,190	2.91%	15.42%
LIB Majority	3,002	7.35%	Pred Maj 18.22%

Chance of winning

LIB

8.3%

LAB

83.5%

CON

3.7%

OTH

0.2%

UKIP

4.3%

Top

LAB Gain

Bishop Auckland
County/Area: Durham (North)
MP: Helen Goodman (LAB)
Electorate: 68,370
Turnout: 60.17%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,023	38.95%	48.98%
CON	10,805	26.27%	17.23%
LIB	9,189	22.34%	6.75%
OTH	4,000	9.72%	11.51%
UKIP	1,119	2.72%	15.53%
LAB Majority	5,218	12.68%	Pred Maj 31.75%

Chance of winning

LAB

92.9%

CON

4.6%

LIB

0.3%

OTH

0.3%

UKIP

1.9%

Top

Blackburn
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Jack Straw (LAB)
Electorate: 72,331
Turnout: 62.90%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,751	47.81%	56.50%
CON	11,895	26.14%	16.85%
LIB	6,918	15.20%	3.16%
OTH	3,993	8.78%	10.33%
UKIP	942	2.07%	13.17%
LAB Majority	9,856	21.66%	Pred Maj 39.65%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.9%

CON

1.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.1%

Top

Blackley and Broughton
County/Area: Central Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Graham Stringer (LAB)
Electorate: 69,489
Turnout: 49.22%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,563	54.27%	62.32%
CON	6,260	18.30%	9.79%
LIB	4,861	14.21%	2.95%
OTH	3,626	10.60%	12.04%
UKIP	894	2.61%	12.89%
LAB Majority	12,303	35.97%	Pred Maj 49.43%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.9%

CON

0.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.1%

Top

Blackpool North and Cleveleys
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Paul Maynard (CON)
Electorate: 65,888
Turnout: 61.61%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,964	41.79%	32.49%
LAB	14,814	36.50%	44.57%
LIB	5,400	13.30%	2.77%
OTH	1,754	4.32%	5.76%
UKIP	1,659	4.09%	14.40%
CON Majority	2,150	5.30%	Pred Maj 12.08%

Chance of winning

CON

24.9%

LAB

74.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.9%

Top

LAB Gain

Blackpool South
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Gordon Marsden (LAB)
Electorate: 63,025
Turnout: 55.84%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,449	41.06%	49.50%
CON	12,597	35.80%	26.50%
LIB	5,082	14.44%	3.00%
OTH	1,712	4.86%	6.37%
UKIP	1,352	3.84%	14.63%
LAB Majority	1,852	5.26%	Pred Maj 23.01%

Chance of winning

LAB

90.1%

CON

9.5%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.4%

Top

Blaydon
County/Area: Newcastle area (North)
MP: David Anderson (LAB)
Electorate: 67,808
Turnout: 66.24%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,297	49.64%	58.93%
LIB	13,180	29.35%	13.75%
CON	7,159	15.94%	8.74%
OTH	2,277	5.07%	6.73%
UKIP	0	0.00%	11.85%
LAB Majority	9,117	20.30%	Pred Maj 45.17%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.8%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.1%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.1%

Top

Blyth Valley
County/Area: Northumberland (North)
MP: Ronnie Campbell (LAB)
Electorate: 64,263
Turnout: 60.01%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,156	44.48%	53.89%
LIB	10,488	27.19%	11.60%
CON	6,412	16.63%	9.12%
OTH	2,845	7.38%	9.06%
UKIP	1,665	4.32%	16.33%
LAB Majority	6,668	17.29%	Pred Maj 37.56%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.4%

LIB

0.2%

CON

0.7%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.7%

Top

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton
County/Area: West Sussex (South East)
MP: Nick Gibb (CON)
Electorate: 70,812
Turnout: 66.16%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,087	51.41%	42.92%
LIB	11,024	23.53%	9.03%
LAB	6,580	14.04%	23.40%
UKIP	3,036	6.48%	18.43%
OTH	2,125	4.54%	6.21%
CON Majority	13,063	27.88%	Pred Maj 19.52%

Chance of winning

CON

85.5%

LIB

0.2%

LAB

11.5%

UKIP

2.8%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Bolsover
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Dennis Skinner (LAB)
Electorate: 72,766
Turnout: 60.45%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,994	50.00%	58.32%
CON	10,812	24.58%	16.05%
LIB	6,821	15.51%	3.61%
OTH	2,640	6.00%	7.49%
UKIP	1,721	3.91%	14.54%
LAB Majority	11,182	25.42%	Pred Maj 42.27%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.3%

CON

0.6%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.1%

Top

Bolton North East
County/Area: Western Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: David Crausby (LAB)
Electorate: 67,281
Turnout: 64.32%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,870	45.91%	53.89%
CON	15,786	36.48%	27.18%
LIB	5,624	13.00%	2.70%
UKIP	1,815	4.19%	14.38%
OTH	182	0.42%	1.84%
LAB Majority	4,084	9.44%	Pred Maj 26.71%

Chance of winning

LAB

94.9%

CON

4.9%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

0.2%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Bolton South East
County/Area: Western Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Yasmin Qureshi (LAB)
Electorate: 69,928
Turnout: 56.64%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,782	47.42%	56.33%
CON	10,148	25.62%	16.33%
LIB	6,289	15.88%	3.30%
OTH	2,821	7.12%	8.71%
UKIP	1,564	3.95%	15.33%
LAB Majority	8,634	21.80%	Pred Maj 40.01%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.7%

CON

1.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.3%

Top

Bolton West
County/Area: Western Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Julie Hilling (LAB)
Electorate: 71,250
Turnout: 66.77%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,327	38.52%	47.85%
CON	18,235	38.33%	29.03%
LIB	8,177	17.19%	3.57%
UKIP	1,901	4.00%	15.91%
OTH	936	1.97%	3.63%
LAB Majority	92	0.19%	Pred Maj 18.82%

Chance of winning

LAB

84.1%

CON

14.7%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

1.2%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Bootle
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: Joe Benton (LAB)
Electorate: 71,426
Turnout: 57.79%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,426	66.44%	73.01%
LIB	6,245	15.13%	3.15%
CON	3,678	8.91%	4.77%
UKIP	2,514	6.09%	14.48%
OTH	1,414	3.43%	4.60%
LAB Majority	21,181	51.31%	Pred Maj 58.54%

Chance of winning

LAB

100.0%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

UKIP

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Boston and Skegness
County/Area: Lincolnshire (Humberside)
MP: Mark Simmonds (CON)
Electorate: 70,529
Turnout: 61.15%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,325	49.45%	40.68%
LAB	8,899	20.64%	28.74%
LIB	6,371	14.77%	3.65%
UKIP	4,081	9.46%	19.81%
OTH	2,449	5.68%	7.12%
CON Majority	12,426	28.81%	Pred Maj 11.94%

Chance of winning

CON

73.4%

LAB

23.2%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

3.4%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Bosworth
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
MP: David Tredinnick (CON)
Electorate: 77,296
Turnout: 70.22%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,132	42.62%	34.09%
LIB	18,100	33.35%	18.01%
LAB	8,674	15.98%	25.71%
OTH	3,270	6.02%	7.76%
UKIP	1,098	2.02%	14.44%
CON Majority	5,032	9.27%	Pred Maj 8.38%

Chance of winning

CON

60.5%

LIB

5.0%

LAB

29.3%

OTH

0.4%

UKIP

4.8%

Top

Bournemouth East
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
MP: Tobias Ellwood (CON)
Electorate: 71,125
Turnout: 61.90%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,320	48.43%	39.92%
LIB	13,592	30.87%	16.76%
LAB	5,836	13.26%	22.47%
UKIP	3,027	6.88%	18.64%
OTH	249	0.57%	2.21%
CON Majority	7,728	17.55%	Pred Maj 17.45%

Chance of winning

CON

80.7%

LIB

2.1%

LAB

13.5%

UKIP

3.7%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Bournemouth West
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
MP: Conor Burns (CON)
Electorate: 71,753
Turnout: 58.06%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,808	45.15%	36.64%
LIB	13,225	31.75%	17.64%
LAB	6,171	14.81%	24.03%
UKIP	2,999	7.20%	18.96%
OTH	456	1.09%	2.74%
CON Majority	5,583	13.40%	Pred Maj 12.61%

Chance of winning

CON

69.5%

LIB

3.5%

LAB

20.9%

UKIP

6.1%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Bracknell
County/Area: Berkshire (South)
MP: Phillip Lee (CON)
Electorate: 76,885
Turnout: 67.81%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,327	52.41%	43.93%
LIB	11,623	22.29%	7.80%
LAB	8,755	16.79%	26.15%
UKIP	2,297	4.41%	16.36%
OTH	2,134	4.09%	5.76%
CON Majority	15,704	30.12%	Pred Maj 17.77%

Chance of winning

CON

83.9%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

14.5%

UKIP

1.5%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Bradford East
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: David Ward (LIB)
Electorate: 65,116
Turnout: 62.13%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	13,637	33.71%	18.65%
LAB	13,272	32.81%	42.51%
CON	10,860	26.84%	18.07%
OTH	2,688	6.64%	8.38%
UKIP	0	0.00%	12.39%
LIB Majority	365	0.90%	Pred Maj 23.86%

Chance of winning

LIB

3.0%

LAB

84.5%

CON

9.4%

OTH

0.3%

UKIP

2.8%

Top

LAB Gain

Bradford South
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Gerry Sutcliffe (LAB)
Electorate: 63,580
Turnout: 59.76%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,682	41.27%	50.45%
CON	11,060	29.11%	20.34%
LIB	6,948	18.29%	4.52%
OTH	2,966	7.81%	9.44%
UKIP	1,339	3.52%	15.25%
LAB Majority	4,622	12.16%	Pred Maj 30.11%

Chance of winning

LAB

94.8%

CON

4.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

UKIP

0.7%

Top

Bradford West
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Marsha Singh (LAB)
Electorate: 62,519
Turnout: 64.90%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,401	45.35%	52.50%
CON	12,638	31.15%	22.38%
LIB	4,732	11.66%	2.88%
OTH	2,623	6.46%	7.74%
MIN	1,370	3.38%	3.38%
UKIP	812	2.00%	11.13%
LAB Majority	5,763	14.20%	Pred Maj 30.12%

Result shown is original general election result. Mr George Galloway (Respect) gained the seat in a by-election on 29 March 2012, after Mr Marsha Singh resigned for health reasons.

Chance of winning

LAB

97.7%

CON

2.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

UKIP

0.1%

Top

Braintree
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Brooks Newmark (CON)
Electorate: 71,162
Turnout: 69.14%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,901	52.64%	44.15%
LAB	9,780	19.88%	29.14%
LIB	9,247	18.79%	4.53%
UKIP	2,477	5.03%	16.87%
OTH	1,798	3.65%	5.31%
CON Majority	16,121	32.76%	Pred Maj 15.01%

Chance of winning

CON

79.9%

LAB

18.3%

LIB

0.1%

UKIP

1.7%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Brent Central
County/Area: Brent (North London)
MP: Sarah Teather (LIB)
Electorate: 74,076
Turnout: 61.18%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	20,026	44.19%	27.66%
LAB	18,681	41.22%	49.99%
CON	5,067	11.18%	6.17%
OTH	1,549	3.42%	4.98%
UKIP	0	0.00%	11.20%
LIB Majority	1,345	2.97%	Pred Maj 22.33%

Chance of winning

LIB

5.6%

LAB

92.5%

CON

0.6%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

1.3%

Top

LAB Gain

Brent North
County/Area: Brent (North London)
MP: Barry Gardiner (LAB)
Electorate: 83,896
Turnout: 62.34%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,514	46.87%	56.23%
CON	16,486	31.52%	22.57%
LIB	8,879	16.98%	2.95%
OTH	2,039	3.90%	5.57%
UKIP	380	0.73%	12.68%
LAB Majority	8,028	15.35%	Pred Maj 33.67%

Chance of winning

LAB

97.4%

CON

2.5%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.1%

Top

Brentford and Isleworth
County/Area: Hounslow (South London)
MP: Mary Macleod (CON)
Electorate: 83,546
Turnout: 64.35%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,022	37.24%	28.28%
LAB	18,064	33.60%	43.98%
LIB	12,718	23.65%	7.13%
OTH	2,098	3.90%	5.75%
UKIP	863	1.61%	14.86%
CON Majority	1,958	3.64%	Pred Maj 15.69%

Chance of winning

CON

19.8%

LAB

78.0%

LIB

0.2%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

1.9%

Top

LAB Gain

Brentwood and Ongar
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Eric Pickles (CON)
Electorate: 73,224
Turnout: 69.09%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,793	56.91%	48.42%
LIB	11,872	23.47%	8.28%
LAB	4,992	9.87%	19.51%
OTH	2,898	5.73%	7.45%
UKIP	2,037	4.03%	16.34%
CON Majority	16,921	33.45%	Pred Maj 28.92%

Chance of winning

CON

93.8%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

4.4%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

1.7%

Top

Bridgwater and West Somerset
County/Area: Somerset (South West)
MP: Ian Liddell-Grainger (CON)
Electorate: 76,560
Turnout: 71.18%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,675	45.28%	36.77%
LIB	15,426	28.31%	14.20%
LAB	9,332	17.13%	26.34%
UKIP	2,604	4.78%	16.54%
OTH	2,456	4.51%	6.15%
CON Majority	9,249	16.97%	Pred Maj 10.44%

Chance of winning

CON

69.2%

LIB

1.6%

LAB

25.2%

UKIP

3.9%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Brigg and Goole
County/Area: Humber area (Humberside)
MP: Andrew Percy (CON)
Electorate: 67,345
Turnout: 65.15%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,680	44.86%	36.09%
LAB	14,533	33.12%	41.18%
LIB	6,414	14.62%	3.61%
UKIP	1,749	3.99%	14.27%
OTH	1,498	3.41%	4.85%
CON Majority	5,147	11.73%	Pred Maj 5.09%

Chance of winning

CON

39.4%

LAB

59.4%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

1.1%

OTH

0.1%

Top

LAB Gain

Brighton Kemptown
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
MP: Simon Kirby (CON)
Electorate: 66,017
Turnout: 64.69%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,217	37.97%	29.49%
LAB	14,889	34.86%	43.64%
LIB	7,691	18.01%	4.96%
MIN	2,330	5.46%	5.46%
UKIP	1,384	3.24%	14.44%
OTH	194	0.45%	2.02%
CON Majority	1,328	3.11%	Pred Maj 14.15%

Chance of winning

CON

20.3%

LAB

78.0%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

UKIP

1.7%

OTH

0.0%

Top

LAB Gain

Brighton Pavilion
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
MP: Caroline Lucas (MIN)
Electorate: 74,004
Turnout: 70.04%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
MIN	16,238	31.33%	31.33%
LAB	14,986	28.91%	36.45%
CON	12,275	23.68%	15.19%
LIB	7,159	13.81%	3.80%
UKIP	948	1.83%	11.45%
OTH	228	0.44%	1.78%
MIN Majority	1,252	2.42%	Pred Maj 5.12%

Chance of winning

MIN

25.4%

LAB

71.4%

CON

2.7%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

0.5%

OTH

0.0%

Top

LAB Gain

Bristol East
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP: Kerry McCarthy (LAB)
Electorate: 69,448
Turnout: 64.82%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,471	36.59%	45.80%
CON	12,749	28.32%	19.81%
LIB	10,993	24.42%	10.31%
OTH	3,294	7.32%	8.96%
UKIP	1,510	3.35%	15.12%
LAB Majority	3,722	8.27%	Pred Maj 25.99%

Chance of winning

LAB

89.1%

CON

7.5%

LIB

0.4%

OTH

0.3%

UKIP

2.7%

Top

Bristol North West
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP: Charlotte Leslie (CON)
Electorate: 73,469
Turnout: 68.51%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,115	37.97%	29.47%
LIB	15,841	31.47%	17.36%
LAB	13,059	25.94%	35.16%
UKIP	1,175	2.33%	14.10%
OTH	1,146	2.28%	3.92%
CON Majority	3,274	6.50%	Pred Maj 5.69%

Chance of winning

CON

35.7%

LIB

2.5%

LAB

58.7%

UKIP

3.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

LAB Gain

Bristol South
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP: Dawn Primarolo (LAB)
Electorate: 78,579
Turnout: 61.56%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,600	38.45%	47.66%
LIB	13,866	28.66%	14.55%
CON	11,086	22.92%	14.41%
OTH	3,561	7.36%	9.00%
UKIP	1,264	2.61%	14.37%
LAB Majority	4,734	9.79%	Pred Maj 33.11%

Chance of winning

LAB

93.3%

LIB

0.6%

CON

3.3%

OTH

0.3%

UKIP

2.5%

Top

Bristol West
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP: Stephen Williams (LIB)
Electorate: 82,728
Turnout: 66.90%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	26,593	48.05%	33.94%
LAB	15,227	27.51%	36.44%
CON	10,169	18.37%	10.56%
OTH	2,703	4.88%	6.48%
UKIP	655	1.18%	12.59%
LIB Majority	11,366	20.54%	Pred Maj 2.50%

Chance of winning

LIB

38.8%

LAB

56.6%

CON

2.2%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

2.3%

Top

LAB Gain

Broadland
County/Area: Norfolk (East Anglia)
MP: Keith Simpson (CON)
Electorate: 73,168
Turnout: 71.99%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,338	46.20%	37.72%
LIB	17,046	32.36%	17.18%
LAB	7,287	13.83%	23.47%
UKIP	2,382	4.52%	16.83%
OTH	1,623	3.08%	4.80%
CON Majority	7,292	13.84%	Pred Maj 14.24%

Chance of winning

CON

72.3%

LIB

3.5%

LAB

19.7%

UKIP

4.4%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Bromley and Chislehurst
County/Area: Bromley (South London)
MP: Bob Neill (CON)
Electorate: 65,427
Turnout: 67.31%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,569	53.52%	44.57%
LIB	9,669	21.96%	5.43%
LAB	7,295	16.57%	26.94%
OTH	2,053	4.66%	6.51%
UKIP	1,451	3.29%	16.55%
CON Majority	13,900	31.56%	Pred Maj 17.62%

Chance of winning

CON

82.0%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

16.3%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

1.6%

Top

Bromsgrove
County/Area: Hereford and Worcestershire (Severn)
MP: Sajid Javid (CON)
Electorate: 73,086
Turnout: 70.64%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,558	43.69%	35.07%
LAB	11,250	21.79%	31.60%
LIB	10,124	19.61%	4.14%
OTH	4,748	9.20%	10.95%
UKIP	2,950	5.71%	18.24%
CON Majority	11,308	21.90%	Pred Maj 3.46%

Chance of winning

CON

54.6%

LAB

39.2%

LIB

0.3%

OTH

0.5%

UKIP

5.4%

Top

Broxbourne
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Essex)
MP: Charles Walker (CON)
Electorate: 71,391
Turnout: 63.95%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,844	58.79%	50.31%
LAB	8,040	17.61%	25.20%
LIB	6,107	13.38%	3.22%
OTH	2,777	6.08%	7.44%
UKIP	1,890	4.14%	13.83%
CON Majority	18,804	41.18%	Pred Maj 25.10%

Chance of winning

CON

93.5%

LAB

5.7%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.8%

Top

Broxtowe
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP: Anna Soubry (CON)
Electorate: 72,042
Turnout: 73.19%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,585	39.04%	30.51%
LAB	20,196	38.30%	47.06%
LIB	8,907	16.89%	3.93%
OTH	1,845	3.50%	5.06%
UKIP	1,194	2.26%	13.44%
CON Majority	389	0.74%	Pred Maj 16.55%

Chance of winning

CON

16.6%

LAB

82.6%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.8%

Top

LAB Gain

Buckingham
County/Area: Buckinghamshire (Essex)
MP: John Bercow (CON)
Electorate: 74,996
Turnout: 64.45%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,860	47.29%	38.81%
MIN	10,331	21.37%	21.37%
UKIP	8,401	17.38%	21.79%
OTH	6,743	13.95%	14.57%
LAB	0	0.00%	3.46%
CON Majority	12,529	25.92%	Pred Maj 17.01%

Chance of winning

CON

87.5%

MIN

0.1%

UKIP

11.6%

OTH

0.1%

LAB

0.7%

Top

Burnley
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Gordon Birtwistle (LIB)
Electorate: 66,616
Turnout: 62.82%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	14,932	35.68%	19.84%
LAB	13,114	31.34%	40.94%
CON	6,950	16.61%	8.89%
MIN	3,747	8.95%	8.95%
OTH	2,173	5.19%	6.91%
UKIP	929	2.22%	14.47%
LIB Majority	1,818	4.34%	Pred Maj 21.09%

Chance of winning

LIB

5.4%

LAB

87.5%

CON

3.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

UKIP

3.8%

Top

LAB Gain

Burton
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Andrew Griffiths (CON)
Electorate: 74,874
Turnout: 66.54%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,188	44.53%	35.91%
LAB	15,884	31.88%	40.48%
LIB	7,891	15.84%	3.35%
OTH	2,409	4.84%	6.37%
UKIP	1,451	2.91%	13.89%
CON Majority	6,304	12.65%	Pred Maj 4.57%

Chance of winning

CON

41.2%

LAB

57.7%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

1.0%

Top

LAB Gain

Bury North
County/Area: Western Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: David Nuttall (CON)
Electorate: 66,759
Turnout: 67.35%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,070	40.19%	30.89%
LAB	15,827	35.20%	44.47%
LIB	7,645	17.00%	3.54%
OTH	2,137	4.75%	6.41%
UKIP	1,282	2.85%	14.69%
CON Majority	2,243	4.99%	Pred Maj 13.58%

Chance of winning

CON

22.5%

LAB

75.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

1.5%

Top

LAB Gain

Bury South
County/Area: Western Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Ivan Lewis (LAB)
Electorate: 73,544
Turnout: 65.63%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,508	40.42%	50.08%
CON	16,216	33.60%	24.30%
LIB	8,796	18.22%	3.79%
OTH	2,730	5.66%	7.38%
UKIP	1,017	2.11%	14.45%
LAB Majority	3,292	6.82%	Pred Maj 25.79%

Chance of winning

LAB

91.0%

CON

8.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

0.7%

Top

Bury St Edmunds
County/Area: Suffolk (East Anglia)
MP: David Ruffley (CON)
Electorate: 84,727
Turnout: 69.30%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,899	47.51%	39.03%
LIB	15,519	26.43%	11.25%
LAB	9,776	16.65%	26.29%
UKIP	3,003	5.11%	17.42%
OTH	2,521	4.29%	6.01%
CON Majority	12,380	21.08%	Pred Maj 12.74%

Chance of winning

CON

73.1%

LIB

0.9%

LAB

22.3%

UKIP

3.6%

OTH

0.1%

Top