Constituency List: England A-B

Aldershot

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Alex Baker (LAB)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	78,569
Turnout:	61.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,764	40.7%	23.1%
CON	14,081	29.0%	22.9%
Reform	8,210	16.9%	25.8%
LIB	4,052	8.3%	10.0%
Green	2,155	4.4%	10.5%
OTH	282	0.6%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	7.8%
LAB Majority	5,683	11.7%	2.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

31%

CON

28%

Reform

38%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Aldridge-Brownhills

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Wendy Morton (CON)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	70,871
Turnout:	57.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,901	38.9%	44.2%
LAB	11,607	28.4%	9.1%
Reform	9,903	24.2%	33.6%
LIB	1,755	4.3%	3.3%
Green	1,746	4.3%	4.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	5.2%
CON Majority	4,294	10.5%	10.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

72%

LAB

Reform

26%

LIB

Green

MIN

Altrincham and Sale West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Connor Rand (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	74,025
Turnout:	69.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,798	40.4%	33.1%
CON	16,624	32.3%	26.6%
Reform	4,961	9.6%	19.4%
LIB	4,727	9.2%	6.4%
Green	3,699	7.2%	9.0%
MIN	643	1.2%	5.5%
LAB Majority	4,174	8.1%	6.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

66%

CON

25%

Reform

LIB

Green

MIN

Amber Valley

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Linsey Farnsworth (LAB)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	71,546
Turnout:	59.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,746	37.0%	36.1%
Reform	12,192	28.7%	42.9%
CON	10,725	25.2%	6.3%
Green	2,278	5.4%	2.1%
LIB	1,590	3.7%	0.9%
MIN	0	0.0%	11.6%
LAB Majority	3,554	8.4%	6.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

34%

Reform

63%

CON

Green

LIB

MIN

Arundel and South Downs

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Andrew Griffith (CON)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	77,969
Turnout:	70.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,001	40.2%	44.1%
LIB	9,867	18.0%	6.6%
LAB	9,782	17.9%	9.4%
Reform	7,391	13.5%	29.3%
Green	5,515	10.1%	6.0%
OTH	184	0.3%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	4.6%
CON Majority	12,134	22.2%	14.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

67%

LIB

LAB

Reform

26%

Green

OTH

MIN

Ashfield

Prediction: Reform hold

MP at 2024:	Lee Anderson (Reform)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	68,929
Turnout:	57.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
Reform	17,062	42.8%	46.0%
LAB	11,554	29.0%	33.7%
MIN	6,276	15.7%	14.1%
CON	3,271	8.2%	3.9%
Green	1,100	2.8%	1.6%
LIB	619	1.6%	0.8%
Reform Majority	5,508	13.8%	12.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

Reform

79%

LAB

20%

MIN

CON

Green

LIB

Ashford

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Sojan Joseph (LAB)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	76,212
Turnout:	61.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,262	32.5%	23.2%
CON	13,483	28.7%	20.9%
Reform	10,141	21.6%	30.9%
Green	4,355	9.3%	10.9%
LIB	2,445	5.2%	7.0%
OTH	1,289	2.7%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	7.2%
LAB Majority	1,779	3.8%	7.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

23%

CON

15%

Reform

61%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Ashton-under-Lyne

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Angela Rayner (LAB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	71,002
Turnout:	49.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,575	43.9%	45.7%
Reform	8,784	24.8%	33.2%
CON	4,375	12.3%	3.9%
MIN	2,835	8.0%	12.4%
Green	2,481	7.0%	4.0%
LIB	1,411	4.0%	0.8%
LAB Majority	6,791	19.2%	12.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

74%

Reform

24%

CON

MIN

Green

LIB

Aylesbury

Prediction: CON gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Laura Elizabeth Kyrke-Smith (LAB)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	79,169
Turnout:	63.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,081	30.2%	15.1%
CON	14,451	28.9%	30.7%
LIB	10,440	20.9%	15.1%
Reform	6,746	13.5%	26.2%
Green	2,590	5.2%	7.2%
MIN	516	1.0%	5.7%
OTH	116	0.2%	0.0%
LAB Majority	630	1.3%	4.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

43%

LIB

11%

Reform

37%

Green

MIN

OTH

Banbury

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Sean Woodcock (LAB)
County/Area:	Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate:	73,193
Turnout:	65.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,468	38.3%	25.3%
CON	15,212	31.6%	24.9%
Reform	6,284	13.0%	24.4%
LIB	4,352	9.0%	9.5%
Green	2,615	5.4%	8.8%
OTH	1,247	2.6%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	7.0%
LAB Majority	3,256	6.8%	0.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

33%

CON

36%

Reform

30%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Barking

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Nesil Caliskan (LAB)
County/Area:	Barking and Dagenham (London)
Electorate:	79,825
Turnout:	45.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,227	44.5%	30.3%
Reform	5,173	14.2%	19.8%
Green	4,988	13.7%	26.3%
CON	4,294	11.8%	9.5%
MIN	3,578	9.8%	9.6%
OTH	1,202	3.3%	0.0%
LIB	1,015	2.8%	4.5%
LAB Majority	11,054	30.3%	4.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

49%

Reform

12%

Green

38%

CON

MIN

OTH

LIB

Barnsley North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Dan Jarvis (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	78,267
Turnout:	47.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,610	50.4%	43.4%
Reform	10,799	29.3%	35.1%
CON	3,083	8.4%	3.1%
Green	1,805	4.9%	3.2%
LIB	1,336	3.6%	0.8%
OTH	1,261	3.4%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	14.3%
LAB Majority	7,811	21.2%	8.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

70%

Reform

29%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Barnsley South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Stephanie Peacock (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	75,850
Turnout:	46.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,399	46.7%	40.4%
Reform	11,651	33.2%	37.9%
CON	3,247	9.3%	3.3%
Green	1,521	4.3%	2.9%
LIB	1,172	3.3%	0.8%
OTH	1,092	3.1%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	14.7%
LAB Majority	4,748	13.5%	2.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

56%

Reform

44%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Barrow and Furness

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Michelle Scrogham (LAB)
County/Area:	Cumbria (North West)
Electorate:	74,980
Turnout:	56.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,537	43.9%	29.7%
CON	13,213	31.3%	22.6%
Reform	7,035	16.7%	27.9%
LIB	1,680	4.0%	4.0%
Green	1,466	3.5%	6.6%
OTH	290	0.7%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	9.3%
LAB Majority	5,324	12.6%	1.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

47%

CON

14%

Reform

38%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Basildon and Billericay

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Richard John Holden (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	76,873
Turnout:	54.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	12,905	30.6%	24.6%
LAB	12,885	30.6%	18.2%
Reform	11,354	27.0%	27.9%
LIB	2,292	5.4%	7.4%
Green	2,123	5.0%	11.8%
OTH	565	1.3%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	10.1%
CON Majority	20	0.0%	3.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

42%

LAB

12%

Reform

44%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Basildon South and East Thurrock

Prediction: Reform hold

MP at 2024:	James McMurdock (Reform)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	72,673
Turnout:	54.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
Reform	12,178	30.8%	34.8%
LAB	12,080	30.5%	21.6%
CON	10,159	25.7%	17.9%
OTH	2,343	5.9%	0.0%
Green	1,718	4.3%	5.9%
LIB	1,071	2.7%	6.2%
MIN	0	0.0%	13.7%
Reform Majority	98	0.2%	13.3% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result. James McMurdock is now Independent since resigning from Reform UK whip ahead of pending allegations of business impropriety.

Chance of winning

Reform

76%

LAB

13%

CON

10%

OTH

Green

LIB

MIN

Basingstoke

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Luke Murphy (LAB)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	78,487
Turnout:	62.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,922	42.7%	25.6%
CON	14,438	29.5%	23.1%
Reform	6,314	12.9%	24.3%
Green	3,568	7.3%	11.5%
LIB	3,176	6.5%	9.0%
OTH	571	1.2%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	6.4%
LAB Majority	6,484	13.2%	1.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

43%

CON

25%

Reform

30%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Bassetlaw

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jo White (LAB)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	78,173
Turnout:	57.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,476	41.2%	33.3%
CON	12,708	28.3%	11.3%
Reform	9,751	21.7%	35.3%
LIB	1,996	4.4%	2.4%
Green	1,947	4.3%	5.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	12.8%
LAB Majority	5,768	12.9%	2.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

43%

CON

Reform

49%

LIB

Green

MIN

Bath

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Wera Hobhouse (LIB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	69,655
Turnout:	69.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	19,883	41.3%	33.7%
LAB	8,665	18.0%	17.2%
CON	7,659	15.9%	15.7%
Green	5,952	12.4%	16.5%
Reform	3,798	7.9%	13.5%
OTH	1,943	4.0%	0.0%
MIN	230	0.5%	3.4%
LIB Majority	11,218	23.3%	16.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

82%

LAB

CON

Green

Reform

OTH

MIN

Battersea

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Marsha de Cordova (LAB)
County/Area:	Wandsworth (London)
Electorate:	72,767
Turnout:	64.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,983	48.8%	34.0%
CON	10,944	23.2%	19.0%
LIB	4,826	10.3%	11.2%
Green	4,239	9.0%	18.6%
Reform	2,825	6.0%	12.8%
OTH	766	1.6%	0.0%
MIN	499	1.1%	4.4%
LAB Majority	12,039	25.6%	15.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

81%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

MIN

Beaconsfield

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Joy Morrissey (CON)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	72,751
Turnout:	65.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,494	38.8%	34.0%
LIB	13,039	27.3%	18.8%
LAB	7,216	15.1%	13.2%
Reform	6,055	12.7%	21.4%
Green	1,977	4.1%	8.3%
OTH	945	2.0%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	4.3%
CON Majority	5,455	11.4%	12.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

77%

LIB

10%

LAB

Reform

11%

Green

OTH

MIN

Beckenham and Penge

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Liam Conlon (LAB)
County/Area:	Bromley (London)
Electorate:	76,876
Turnout:	67.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,753	49.3%	32.7%
CON	12,848	24.6%	20.6%
Reform	5,355	10.3%	19.3%
LIB	4,436	8.5%	10.2%
Green	3,830	7.3%	12.2%
MIN	0	0.0%	5.0%
LAB Majority	12,905	24.7%	12.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

78%

CON

12%

Reform

LIB

Green

MIN

Bedford

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Mohammad Yasin (LAB)
County/Area:	Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	72,478
Turnout:	56.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,342	45.1%	39.1%
CON	8,912	21.9%	10.6%
Reform	4,548	11.2%	30.1%
LIB	4,025	9.9%	5.4%
Green	2,394	5.9%	6.3%
OTH	1,442	3.5%	0.0%
MIN	996	2.4%	8.5%
LAB Majority	9,430	23.2%	9.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

67%

CON

Reform

24%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Bedfordshire Mid

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Blake Stephenson (CON)
County/Area:	Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	76,218
Turnout:	65.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,912	34.1%	28.7%
LAB	15,591	31.4%	22.3%
Reform	8,594	17.3%	24.6%
LIB	4,068	8.2%	9.4%
Green	2,584	5.2%	9.5%
OTH	1,872	3.8%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	5.5%
CON Majority	1,321	2.7%	4.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

56%

LAB

17%

Reform

26%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Bedfordshire North

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Richard Fuller (CON)
County/Area:	Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	78,850
Turnout:	65.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,981	38.8%	39.8%
LAB	14,567	28.3%	13.5%
Reform	8,433	16.4%	27.4%
LIB	5,553	10.8%	6.7%
Green	3,027	5.9%	7.3%
MIN	0	0.0%	5.3%
CON Majority	5,414	10.5%	12.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

73%

LAB

Reform

19%

LIB

Green

MIN

Bermondsey and Old Southwark

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Neil Coyle (LAB)
County/Area:	Southwark (London)
Electorate:	69,473
Turnout:	54.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,857	44.8%	29.4%
LIB	9,070	24.1%	15.1%
Green	4,477	11.9%	26.0%
Reform	3,397	9.0%	13.6%
CON	2,879	7.7%	9.6%
OTH	923	2.5%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	6.2%
LAB Majority	7,787	20.7%	3.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

59%

LIB

Green

34%

Reform

CON

OTH

MIN

Bethnal Green and Stepney

Prediction: Green gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Rushanara Ali (LAB)
County/Area:	Tower Hamlets (London)
Electorate:	81,922
Turnout:	56.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,896	34.1%	28.3%
MIN	14,207	30.5%	14.6%
Green	6,391	13.7%	31.4%
LIB	4,777	10.2%	7.2%
Reform	1,964	4.2%	10.9%
CON	1,920	4.1%	7.5%
OTH	1,492	3.2%	0.0%
LAB Majority	1,689	3.6%	3.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

38%

MIN

Green

59%

LIB

Reform

CON

OTH

Beverley and Holderness

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Graham Stuart (CON)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	70,559
Turnout:	63.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,501	34.5%	28.4%
LAB	15,377	34.2%	23.1%
Reform	8,198	18.3%	27.7%
LIB	3,386	7.5%	7.3%
Green	1,647	3.7%	6.3%
OTH	788	1.8%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	7.2%
CON Majority	124	0.3%	0.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

49%

LAB

18%

Reform

33%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Bexhill and Battle

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Kieran Mullan (CON)
County/Area:	East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	72,209
Turnout:	66.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,186	33.9%	26.2%
LAB	13,529	28.3%	22.4%
Reform	7,929	16.6%	28.0%
OTH	3,661	7.7%	0.0%
LIB	3,473	7.3%	8.9%
Green	2,972	6.2%	8.3%
MIN	0	0.0%	6.3%
CON Majority	2,657	5.6%	1.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

48%

LAB

15%

Reform

35%

OTH

LIB

Green

MIN

Bexleyheath and Crayford

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Daniel Francis (LAB)
County/Area:	Bexley (London)
Electorate:	69,470
Turnout:	62.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,717	36.2%	19.1%
CON	13,603	31.3%	30.5%
Reform	9,861	22.7%	30.9%
LIB	2,204	5.1%	6.1%
Green	2,076	4.8%	7.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	6.4%
LAB Majority	2,114	4.9%	0.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

14%

CON

42%

Reform

44%

LIB

Green

MIN

Bicester and Woodstock

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Calum Alexander Miller (LIB)
County/Area:	Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate:	74,350
Turnout:	67.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	19,419	38.7%	37.1%
CON	14,461	28.8%	24.7%
LAB	8,236	16.4%	10.8%
Reform	5,408	10.8%	15.9%
Green	2,404	4.8%	7.3%
OTH	291	0.6%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	4.3%
LIB Majority	4,958	9.9%	12.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

81%

CON

13%

LAB

Reform

Green

OTH

MIN

Birkenhead

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Alison McGovern (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	78,091
Turnout:	55.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,468	52.1%	46.5%
Green	8,670	20.1%	13.1%
Reform	6,142	14.2%	23.7%
CON	3,238	7.5%	6.6%
LIB	2,292	5.3%	3.1%
OTH	324	0.8%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	7.0%
LAB Majority	13,798	32.0%	22.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

95%

Green

Reform

CON

LIB

OTH

MIN

Birmingham Edgbaston

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Preet Kaur Gill (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	71,787
Turnout:	52.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,599	44.3%	30.8%
CON	8,231	22.0%	18.8%
Reform	4,363	11.7%	22.2%
OTH	3,336	8.9%	0.0%
Green	2,797	7.5%	14.2%
LIB	2,102	5.6%	7.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	6.4%
LAB Majority	8,368	22.4%	8.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

66%

CON

11%

Reform

19%

OTH

Green

LIB

MIN

Birmingham Erdington

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Paulette Hamilton (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	77,463
Turnout:	43.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,774	43.7%	43.5%
Reform	7,755	22.9%	35.9%
CON	5,402	16.0%	5.0%
Green	2,452	7.3%	4.8%
OTH	2,287	6.8%	0.0%
LIB	1,128	3.3%	1.4%
MIN	0	0.0%	9.4%
LAB Majority	7,019	20.8%	7.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

52%

Reform

39%

CON

Green

OTH

LIB

MIN

Birmingham Hall Green and Moseley

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Tahir Ali (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	76,936
Turnout:	54.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	12,798	30.8%	30.9%
MIN	7,142	17.2%	10.6%
OTH	6,892	16.6%	0.0%
LIB	4,711	11.3%	7.6%
Green	3,913	9.4%	27.5%
CON	3,845	9.2%	9.0%
Reform	2,305	5.5%	14.4%
LAB Majority	5,656	13.6%	3.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

37%

MIN

OTH

LIB

Green

51%

CON

Reform

Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Liam Byrne (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	77,737
Turnout:	43.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	10,655	31.2%	29.7%
MIN	9,089	26.6%	15.7%
Reform	6,456	18.9%	26.6%
CON	4,634	13.6%	9.1%
Green	2,360	6.9%	15.5%
LIB	942	2.8%	3.4%
LAB Majority	1,566	4.6%	3.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

38%

MIN

Reform

37%

CON

Green

16%

LIB

Birmingham Ladywood

Prediction: Green gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Shabana Mahmood (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	83,693
Turnout:	43.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,558	42.5%	24.9%
MIN	12,137	33.2%	18.3%
Green	3,478	9.5%	37.2%
CON	2,218	6.1%	5.7%
LIB	1,711	4.7%	4.6%
Reform	1,477	4.0%	9.3%
LAB Majority	3,421	9.4%	12.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

14%

MIN

Green

83%

CON

LIB

Reform

Birmingham Northfield

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Laurence Turner (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	74,048
Turnout:	50.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,929	39.6%	32.8%
CON	9,540	25.3%	12.0%
Reform	7,895	21.0%	36.1%
Green	2,809	7.5%	6.4%
LIB	1,791	4.8%	3.9%
OTH	688	1.8%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	8.7%
LAB Majority	5,389	14.3%	3.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

40%

CON

Reform

54%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Birmingham Perry Barr

Prediction: LAB gain from MIN

MP at 2024:	Ayoub Khan (MIN)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	76,350
Turnout:	49.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
MIN	13,303	35.5%	23.7%
LAB	12,796	34.1%	26.4%
CON	4,227	11.3%	10.1%
Reform	2,446	6.5%	13.4%
Green	2,440	6.5%	20.2%
LIB	1,302	3.5%	6.1%
OTH	962	2.6%	0.0%
MIN Majority	507	1.4%	2.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

MIN

27%

LAB

43%

CON

Reform

Green

21%

LIB

OTH

Birmingham Selly Oak

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Alistair Carns (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	75,678
Turnout:	50.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,371	45.2%	31.8%
CON	5,834	15.2%	11.6%
Reform	5,732	14.9%	19.7%
Green	4,320	11.2%	23.2%
OTH	2,842	7.4%	0.0%
LIB	2,324	6.0%	6.1%
MIN	0	0.0%	7.5%
LAB Majority	11,537	30.0%	8.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

65%

CON

Reform

11%

Green

22%

OTH

LIB

MIN

Birmingham Yardley

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Jess Phillips (LAB)
County/Area:	Birmingham (West Midlands)
Electorate:	73,203
Turnout:	49.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	11,275	31.2%	29.6%
MIN	10,582	29.3%	16.9%
Reform	5,061	14.0%	28.3%
CON	3,634	10.1%	8.9%
LIB	3,634	10.1%	6.3%
Green	1,958	5.4%	10.0%
LAB Majority	693	1.9%	1.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

36%

MIN

Reform

44%

CON

LIB

Green

Bishop Auckland

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Sam Rushworth (LAB)
County/Area:	Durham (North East)
Electorate:	70,745
Turnout:	57.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,036	42.1%	27.6%
CON	10,364	25.6%	19.6%
Reform	9,466	23.4%	36.1%
Green	1,857	4.6%	5.1%
LIB	1,373	3.4%	4.6%
OTH	331	0.8%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	7.0%
LAB Majority	6,672	16.5%	8.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

25%

CON

Reform

68%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Blackburn

Prediction: LAB gain from MIN

MP at 2024:	Adnan Hussain (MIN)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	73,259
Turnout:	53.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
MIN	10,518	27.0%	24.1%
LAB	10,386	26.7%	30.7%
OTH	7,560	19.4%	0.0%
Reform	4,844	12.5%	18.3%
CON	3,474	8.9%	9.4%
Green	1,416	3.6%	14.3%
LIB	689	1.8%	3.1%
MIN Majority	132	0.3%	6.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

MIN

26%

LAB

51%

OTH

Reform

13%

CON

Green

LIB

Blackley and Middleton South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Graham Stringer (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	72,097
Turnout:	43.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,864	53.8%	34.6%
Reform	6,614	21.1%	22.3%
Green	3,197	10.2%	18.1%
CON	3,073	9.8%	8.8%
LIB	1,592	5.1%	3.6%
MIN	0	0.0%	12.7%
LAB Majority	10,250	32.7%	12.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

84%

Reform

11%

Green

CON

LIB

MIN

Blackpool North and Fleetwood

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Lorraine Beavers (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	73,339
Turnout:	57.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,744	40.0%	25.8%
CON	12,097	28.9%	21.8%
Reform	9,913	23.7%	32.0%
LIB	1,318	3.2%	4.6%
Green	1,269	3.0%	6.7%
OTH	469	1.1%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	9.1%
LAB Majority	4,647	11.1%	6.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

31%

CON

10%

Reform

59%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Blackpool South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Chris Webb (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	77,459
Turnout:	45.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,916	48.1%	41.1%
Reform	10,068	28.6%	38.6%
CON	5,504	15.6%	4.7%
Green	1,207	3.4%	2.8%
LIB	1,041	3.0%	0.8%
OTH	444	1.3%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	11.9%
LAB Majority	6,848	19.5%	2.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

58%

Reform

42%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Blaydon and Consett

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Liz Twist (LAB)
County/Area:	Durham (North East)
Electorate:	70,487
Turnout:	59.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,160	50.1%	46.2%
Reform	10,007	23.7%	36.0%
CON	6,052	14.3%	5.0%
Green	2,589	6.1%	3.1%
LIB	2,273	5.4%	1.3%
OTH	135	0.3%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	8.5%
LAB Majority	11,153	26.4%	10.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

72%

Reform

28%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Blyth and Ashington

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Ian Lavery (LAB)
County/Area:	Northumberland (North East)
Electorate:	76,263
Turnout:	53.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,030	49.6%	41.1%
Reform	10,857	26.9%	42.3%
CON	6,121	15.2%	6.1%
Green	1,960	4.9%	2.6%
LIB	1,433	3.5%	1.2%
MIN	0	0.0%	6.7%
LAB Majority	9,173	22.7%	1.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

47%

Reform

52%

CON

Green

LIB

MIN

Bognor Regis and Littlehampton

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Ali Griffiths (CON)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	77,565
Turnout:	61.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,678	32.8%	33.6%
LAB	13,913	29.1%	13.6%
Reform	10,262	21.5%	30.7%
LIB	5,081	10.6%	8.0%
Green	2,185	4.6%	6.4%
OTH	708	1.5%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	7.8%
CON Majority	1,765	3.7%	2.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

49%

LAB

Reform

42%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Bolsover

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Natalie Fleet (LAB)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	77,207
Turnout:	55.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,197	40.5%	37.8%
CON	10,874	25.6%	6.0%
Reform	9,131	21.5%	40.4%
Green	3,754	8.8%	2.6%
LIB	1,478	3.5%	0.9%
MIN	0	0.0%	12.2%
LAB Majority	6,323	14.9%	2.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

44%

CON

Reform

54%

Green

LIB

MIN

Bolton North East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Kirith Entwistle (LAB)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	80,011
Turnout:	54.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,166	37.3%	40.2%
CON	9,513	21.9%	6.8%
Reform	9,428	21.7%	39.8%
Green	4,683	10.8%	3.2%
LIB	1,507	3.5%	1.1%
MIN	1,463	3.4%	8.8%
OTH	599	1.4%	0.0%
LAB Majority	6,653	15.3%	0.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

48%

CON

Reform

46%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Bolton South and Walkden

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Yasmin Qureshi (LAB)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	79,622
Turnout:	46.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,093	40.9%	46.1%
Reform	8,350	22.6%	32.4%
MIN	4,673	12.7%	12.3%
CON	4,170	11.3%	3.8%
Green	2,827	7.7%	4.6%
LIB	1,384	3.7%	0.8%
OTH	433	1.2%	0.0%
LAB Majority	6,743	18.3%	13.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

68%

Reform

26%

MIN

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Bolton West

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Phil Brickell (LAB)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	74,933
Turnout:	59.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,363	38.9%	26.5%
CON	12,418	27.8%	22.8%
Reform	8,517	19.1%	28.2%
Green	4,132	9.3%	9.2%
LIB	1,966	4.4%	5.2%
OTH	202	0.5%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	8.1%
LAB Majority	4,945	11.1%	1.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

40%

CON

16%

Reform

43%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Bootle

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Peter Dowd (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	73,037
Turnout:	53.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	26,729	68.7%	47.3%
Reform	4,746	12.2%	18.2%
Green	3,904	10.0%	14.9%
CON	1,674	4.3%	6.2%
LIB	1,301	3.3%	3.5%
MIN	526	1.4%	9.8%
LAB Majority	21,983	56.5%	29.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

Reform

Green

CON

LIB

MIN

Boston and Skegness

Prediction: Reform hold

MP at 2024:	Richard Tice (Reform)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	75,811
Turnout:	53.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
Reform	15,520	38.4%	41.8%
CON	13,510	33.4%	32.5%
LAB	7,629	18.9%	8.1%
Green	1,506	3.7%	1.9%
LIB	1,375	3.4%	1.8%
OTH	915	2.3%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	13.8%
Reform Majority	2,010	5.0%	9.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

Reform

78%

CON

21%

LAB

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Bournemouth East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Tom Hayes (LAB)
County/Area:	Dorset (South West)
Electorate:	72,354
Turnout:	62.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,316	40.8%	26.7%
CON	12,837	28.6%	21.2%
Reform	6,268	14.0%	25.6%
LIB	3,082	6.9%	9.0%
Green	2,790	6.2%	10.6%
OTH	1,617	3.6%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	6.8%
LAB Majority	5,479	12.2%	1.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

43%

CON

18%

Reform

37%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Bournemouth West

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jessica Toale (LAB)
County/Area:	Dorset (South West)
Electorate:	70,259
Turnout:	56.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,365	36.4%	20.9%
CON	11,141	28.3%	22.2%
Reform	6,647	16.9%	28.6%
LIB	4,311	10.9%	11.3%
Green	2,614	6.6%	10.2%
OTH	340	0.9%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	6.8%
LAB Majority	3,224	8.2%	6.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

21%

CON

27%

Reform

50%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Bracknell

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Peter Swallow (LAB)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	71,656
Turnout:	61.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,783	33.7%	22.0%
CON	13,999	31.9%	24.0%
Reform	7,445	17.0%	25.5%
LIB	4,768	10.9%	9.4%
Green	2,166	4.9%	9.7%
OTH	676	1.5%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	9.3%
LAB Majority	784	1.8%	1.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

24%

CON

38%

Reform

36%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Bradford East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Imran Hussain (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	75,167
Turnout:	49.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,098	37.9%	40.2%
MIN	7,909	21.3%	9.6%
Reform	4,952	13.3%	25.1%
CON	3,450	9.3%	8.6%
Green	2,571	6.9%	13.6%
OTH	2,326	6.2%	0.0%
LIB	1,910	5.1%	3.0%
LAB Majority	6,189	16.6%	15.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

70%

MIN

Reform

17%

CON

Green

OTH

LIB

Bradford South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Judith Cummins (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	71,002
Turnout:	46.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	11,833	35.8%	44.7%
Reform	7,441	22.5%	34.1%
CON	4,853	14.7%	4.1%
OTH	4,082	12.4%	0.0%
Green	3,366	10.2%	4.6%
LIB	954	2.9%	0.7%
MIN	513	1.6%	11.8%
LAB Majority	4,392	13.3%	10.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

63%

Reform

31%

CON

OTH

Green

LIB

MIN

Bradford West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Naz Shah (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	77,897
Turnout:	47.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	11,724	31.6%	33.1%
MIN	11,017	29.7%	13.9%
OTH	3,881	10.5%	0.0%
Green	3,690	10.0%	26.3%
CON	3,055	8.2%	8.4%
Reform	2,958	8.0%	15.8%
LIB	756	2.0%	2.4%
LAB Majority	707	1.9%	6.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

49%

MIN

OTH

Green

41%

CON

Reform

LIB

Braintree

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	James Cleverly (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	77,781
Turnout:	63.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,414	35.5%	41.0%
LAB	13,744	28.0%	10.0%
Reform	11,346	23.1%	32.9%
LIB	2,879	5.9%	3.4%
Green	2,878	5.9%	5.8%
OTH	767	1.6%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	6.9%
CON Majority	3,670	7.5%	8.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

53%

LAB

Reform

40%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Brent East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Dawn Butler (LAB)
County/Area:	Brent (London)
Electorate:	77,257
Turnout:	48.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,370	51.2%	33.4%
CON	6,323	16.7%	11.1%
Green	3,729	9.9%	28.0%
OTH	2,669	7.1%	0.0%
LIB	2,635	7.0%	6.3%
Reform	2,024	5.4%	14.4%
MIN	1,052	2.8%	6.8%
LAB Majority	13,047	34.5%	5.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

59%

CON

Green

37%

OTH

LIB

Reform

MIN

Brent West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Barry Gardiner (LAB)
County/Area:	Brent (London)
Electorate:	79,937
Turnout:	51.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,258	41.7%	27.0%
CON	13,465	32.5%	25.1%
LIB	3,013	7.3%	6.5%
Green	2,805	6.8%	18.5%
MIN	2,774	6.7%	7.7%
Reform	2,061	5.0%	15.2%
LAB Majority	3,793	9.2%	1.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

43%

CON

37%

LIB

Green

13%

MIN

Reform

Brentford and Isleworth

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Ruth Cadbury (LAB)
County/Area:	Hounslow (London)
Electorate:	79,283
Turnout:	57.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,007	44.2%	31.4%
CON	10,183	22.5%	16.9%
Green	4,029	8.9%	17.9%
Reform	3,940	8.7%	17.6%
LIB	3,863	8.5%	7.6%
MIN	2,746	6.1%	8.5%
OTH	486	1.1%	0.0%
LAB Majority	9,824	21.7%	13.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

73%

CON

Green

11%

Reform

LIB

MIN

OTH

Brentwood and Ongar

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Alex Burghart (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	75,352
Turnout:	64.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,731	36.7%	43.0%
Reform	11,751	24.3%	32.5%
LAB	11,082	22.9%	8.3%
LIB	5,809	12.0%	5.3%
Green	1,770	3.7%	4.4%
OTH	189	0.4%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	6.4%
CON Majority	5,980	12.4%	10.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

69%

Reform

29%

LAB

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Bridgwater

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Ashley Fox (CON)
County/Area:	Somerset (South West)
Electorate:	71,571
Turnout:	56.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	12,281	30.6%	37.0%
LAB	10,932	27.2%	11.0%
Reform	8,913	22.2%	30.6%
LIB	5,781	14.4%	8.4%
Green	1,720	4.3%	5.9%
OTH	334	0.8%	0.0%
MIN	168	0.4%	7.1%
CON Majority	1,349	3.4%	6.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

50%

LAB

Reform

42%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Bridlington and the Wolds

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Charlie Dewhirst (CON)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	72,931
Turnout:	58.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	14,846	34.6%	36.0%
LAB	11,721	27.3%	14.4%
Reform	10,350	24.1%	34.1%
LIB	3,097	7.2%	3.9%
Green	1,595	3.7%	4.1%
OTH	1,328	3.1%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	7.6%
CON Majority	3,125	7.3%	1.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

46%

LAB

Reform

47%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Brigg and Immingham

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Martin Vickers (CON)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,297
Turnout:	57.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,905	37.4%	43.0%
LAB	12,662	29.8%	10.5%
Reform	10,594	24.9%	34.3%
Green	1,905	4.5%	4.0%
LIB	1,442	3.4%	2.1%
MIN	0	0.0%	6.1%
CON Majority	3,243	7.6%	8.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

62%

LAB

Reform

34%

Green

LIB

MIN

Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Chris Ward (LAB)
County/Area:	East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	68,784
Turnout:	59.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,893	44.0%	32.3%
CON	8,230	20.2%	13.8%
Green	7,997	19.7%	23.1%
LIB	3,949	9.7%	8.5%
OTH	2,617	6.4%	0.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	15.9%
MIN	0	0.0%	6.5%
LAB Majority	9,663	23.8%	9.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

67%

CON

Green

21%

LIB

OTH

Reform

MIN

Brighton Pavilion

Prediction: Green hold

MP at 2024:	Si�n Berry (Green)
County/Area:	East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	74,786
Turnout:	70.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
Green	28,809	55.0%	47.2%
LAB	14,519	27.7%	27.1%
CON	3,975	7.6%	7.6%
Reform	2,836	5.4%	8.3%
LIB	1,604	3.1%	6.4%
OTH	620	1.2%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	3.5%
Green Majority	14,290	27.3%	20.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

Green

93%

LAB

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

MIN

Bristol Central

Prediction: Green hold

MP at 2024:	Carla Denyer (Green)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	62,735
Turnout:	69.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
Green	24,539	56.6%	48.7%
LAB	14,132	32.6%	33.5%
CON	1,998	4.6%	4.8%
Reform	1,338	3.1%	5.9%
LIB	1,162	2.7%	5.1%
OTH	196	0.5%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	2.1%
Green Majority	10,407	24.0%	15.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

Green

85%

LAB

15%

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

MIN

Bristol East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Kerry McCarthy (LAB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	75,917
Turnout:	60.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,748	45.0%	36.5%
Green	14,142	30.7%	28.9%
CON	6,435	14.0%	10.4%
LIB	2,713	5.9%	6.2%
OTH	2,071	4.5%	0.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.8%
MIN	0	0.0%	3.3%
LAB Majority	6,606	14.3%	7.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

69%

Green

28%

CON

LIB

OTH

Reform

MIN

Bristol North East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Damien Egan (LAB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	70,076
Turnout:	59.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,004	45.3%	33.4%
Green	7,837	18.7%	24.0%
CON	6,216	14.8%	10.6%
Reform	5,418	12.9%	20.2%
LIB	1,964	4.7%	5.2%
OTH	1,550	3.7%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	6.7%
LAB Majority	11,167	26.6%	9.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

67%

Green

21%

CON

Reform

10%

LIB

OTH

MIN

Bristol North West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Darren Jones (LAB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	74,869
Turnout:	64.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,058	49.6%	34.2%
Green	8,389	17.3%	21.7%
CON	6,773	14.0%	12.9%
Reform	4,863	10.0%	17.6%
LIB	4,159	8.6%	8.8%
OTH	222	0.5%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	4.9%
LAB Majority	15,669	32.3%	12.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

78%

Green

14%

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

MIN

Bristol South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Karin Smyth (LAB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	75,533
Turnout:	57.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,521	42.7%	30.6%
Green	10,855	25.0%	25.5%
Reform	6,195	14.3%	21.5%
CON	4,947	11.4%	9.7%
LIB	2,721	6.3%	6.2%
OTH	164	0.4%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	6.5%
LAB Majority	7,666	17.7%	5.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

56%

Green

28%

Reform

15%

CON

LIB

OTH

MIN

Broadland and Fakenham

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Jerome Mayhew (CON)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	76,859
Turnout:	64.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,322	33.0%	31.0%
LAB	15,603	31.5%	17.4%
Reform	8,859	17.9%	28.2%
LIB	5,526	11.2%	10.2%
Green	3,203	6.5%	7.3%
MIN	0	0.0%	5.9%
CON Majority	719	1.5%	2.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

49%

LAB

12%

Reform

36%

LIB

Green

MIN

Bromley and Biggin Hill

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Peter Fortune (CON)
County/Area:	Bromley (London)
Electorate:	70,713
Turnout:	66.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,929	34.0%	29.7%
LAB	15,627	33.4%	20.8%
Reform	8,203	17.5%	22.0%
LIB	4,352	9.3%	11.0%
Green	2,583	5.5%	11.0%
OTH	94	0.2%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	5.5%
CON Majority	302	0.6%	7.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

63%

LAB

18%

Reform

17%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Bromsgrove

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Bradley Anthony Thomas (CON)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	76,468
Turnout:	65.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,533	32.8%	30.9%
LAB	13,517	26.8%	17.4%
Reform	9,584	19.0%	26.4%
LIB	7,391	14.7%	11.6%
Green	1,675	3.3%	7.2%
OTH	1,561	3.1%	0.0%
MIN	144	0.3%	6.6%
CON Majority	3,016	6.0%	4.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

55%

LAB

13%

Reform

29%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Broxbourne

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Lewis Christopher Cocking (CON)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	75,187
Turnout:	57.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,810	36.8%	43.4%
LAB	12,952	30.2%	9.4%
Reform	8,782	20.4%	31.3%
LIB	2,688	6.3%	3.9%
Green	2,461	5.7%	6.1%
OTH	259	0.6%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	5.9%
CON Majority	2,858	6.7%	12.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

68%

LAB

Reform

28%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Broxtowe

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Juliet Campbell (LAB)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	71,923
Turnout:	66.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,561	40.9%	41.4%
CON	11,158	23.3%	8.9%
Reform	8,402	17.6%	38.1%
LIB	3,807	8.0%	2.0%
Green	3,488	7.3%	3.0%
OTH	1,034	2.2%	0.0%
MIN	388	0.8%	6.7%
LAB Majority	8,403	17.6%	3.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

58%

CON

Reform

36%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Buckingham and Bletchley

Prediction: CON gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Callum Anderson (LAB)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	74,832
Turnout:	63.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,602	36.9%	23.7%
CON	15,181	31.9%	25.0%
Reform	7,468	15.7%	24.2%
LIB	4,300	9.0%	9.3%
Green	2,590	5.4%	10.2%
OTH	500	1.0%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	7.6%
LAB Majority	2,421	5.1%	0.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

29%

CON

38%

Reform

30%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Buckinghamshire Mid

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Greg Smith (CON)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	75,415
Turnout:	71.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,150	37.3%	31.9%
LIB	14,278	26.5%	19.4%
LAB	9,171	17.0%	14.0%
Reform	6,926	12.8%	22.2%
Green	2,942	5.5%	8.5%
OTH	484	0.9%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	4.0%
CON Majority	5,872	10.9%	9.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

72%

LIB

12%

LAB

Reform

13%

Green

OTH

MIN

Burnley

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Oliver Ryan (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	74,951
Turnout:	53.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	12,598	31.7%	36.0%
LIB	9,178	23.1%	3.7%
CON	8,058	20.3%	7.8%
Reform	7,755	19.5%	39.7%
Green	1,518	3.8%	2.8%
OTH	612	1.5%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	10.0%
LAB Majority	3,420	8.6%	3.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

38%

LIB

CON

Reform

59%

Green

OTH

MIN

Burton and Uttoxeter

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jacob Collier (LAB)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	77,994
Turnout:	58.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,222	35.6%	23.2%
CON	13,956	30.6%	22.7%
Reform	9,611	21.1%	29.9%
Green	2,119	4.6%	8.9%
MIN	2,056	4.5%	9.5%
LIB	1,663	3.6%	5.8%
LAB Majority	2,266	5.0%	6.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

21%

CON

24%

Reform

55%

Green

MIN

LIB

Bury North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	James Frith (LAB)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	77,703
Turnout:	58.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,625	43.1%	31.0%
CON	12,681	27.9%	21.6%
Reform	7,385	16.2%	24.7%
MIN	1,917	4.2%	8.6%
Green	1,747	3.8%	9.6%
LIB	1,317	2.9%	4.5%
OTH	848	1.9%	0.0%
LAB Majority	6,944	15.3%	6.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

59%

CON

14%

Reform

26%

MIN

Green

LIB

OTH

Bury South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Christian Wakeford (LAB)
County/Area:	Western Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	75,339
Turnout:	56.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,247	45.6%	43.5%
CON	9,886	23.4%	7.7%
Reform	6,865	16.3%	33.6%
Green	2,715	6.4%	4.0%
LIB	1,796	4.3%	1.5%
MIN	1,023	2.4%	9.7%
OTH	682	1.6%	0.0%
LAB Majority	9,361	22.2%	9.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

74%

CON

Reform

24%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Peter Prinsley (LAB)
County/Area:	Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	77,599
Turnout:	65.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,745	32.9%	24.3%
CON	15,293	30.0%	22.1%
Reform	8,595	16.9%	28.6%
Green	5,761	11.3%	11.1%
LIB	3,154	6.2%	8.3%
OTH	1,345	2.6%	0.0%
MIN	0	0.0%	5.5%
LAB Majority	1,452	2.9%	4.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

31%

CON

20%

Reform

48%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN