Constituency List: England C-E

Calder Valley

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Josh Fenton-Glynn (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	77,364
Turnout:	64.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,046	44.4%	27.7%
CON	13,055	26.3%	16.5%
Reform	7,644	15.4%	35.4%
Green	3,701	7.5%	9.1%
LIB	2,587	5.2%	10.7%
OTH	575	1.2%	0.5%
LAB Majority	8,991	18.1%	7.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

27%

CON

Reform

69%

Green

LIB

OTH

Camborne and Redruth

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Perran Moon (LAB)
County/Area:	Cornwall (South West)
Electorate:	74,402
Turnout:	64.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,360	40.5%	27.4%
CON	11,554	24.2%	15.5%
Reform	8,952	18.7%	36.2%
LIB	4,113	8.6%	12.4%
Green	2,840	5.9%	7.8%
OTH	966	2.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	7,806	16.3%	8.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

25%

CON

Reform

71%

LIB

Green

OTH

Cambridge

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Daniel Zeichner (LAB)
County/Area:	Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	70,315
Turnout:	59.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,614	46.6%	34.9%
LIB	8,536	20.3%	21.1%
Green	6,842	16.3%	20.9%
CON	5,073	12.0%	6.9%
OTH	1,084	2.6%	0.6%
MIN	951	2.3%	2.2%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.3%
LAB Majority	11,078	26.3%	13.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

77%

LIB

11%

Green

CON

OTH

MIN

Reform

Cambridgeshire North East

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Steve Barclay (CON)
County/Area:	Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	71,511
Turnout:	54.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,246	41.5%	28.2%
Reform	9,057	23.1%	42.1%
LAB	8,008	20.4%	12.0%
LIB	2,716	6.9%	10.1%
Green	2,001	5.1%	6.6%
OTH	958	2.4%	0.5%
MIN	190	0.5%	0.5%
CON Majority	7,189	18.4%	13.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

17%

Reform

83%

LAB

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Cambridgeshire North West

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Sam Carling (LAB)
County/Area:	Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	75,915
Turnout:	58.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,785	33.3%	20.0%
CON	14,746	33.2%	23.2%
Reform	8,741	19.7%	36.0%
LIB	3,192	7.2%	11.1%
Green	2,960	6.7%	9.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
LAB Majority	39	0.1%	12.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

15%

Reform

77%

LIB

Green

OTH

Cambridgeshire South

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Pippa Heylings (LIB)
County/Area:	Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	77,327
Turnout:	71.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	25,704	46.8%	37.1%
CON	15,063	27.4%	18.4%
LAB	6,106	11.1%	12.0%
Reform	4,897	8.9%	24.7%
Green	2,656	4.8%	7.4%
OTH	459	0.8%	0.3%
LIB Majority	10,641	19.4%	12.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

79%

CON

LAB

Reform

15%

Green

OTH

Cannock Chase

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Josh Newbury (LAB)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	76,974
Turnout:	55.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,671	36.5%	20.7%
CON	12,546	29.2%	21.4%
Reform	11,570	26.9%	41.9%
Green	2,137	5.0%	7.7%
LIB	1,029	2.4%	8.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
LAB Majority	3,125	7.3%	20.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

Reform

89%

Green

LIB

OTH

Canterbury

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Rosie Duffield (LAB)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	71,171
Turnout:	66.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,531	41.4%	28.9%
CON	10,878	23.0%	15.8%
Reform	6,805	14.4%	28.5%
Green	5,920	12.5%	13.9%
LIB	3,812	8.1%	12.4%
OTH	285	0.6%	0.4%
LAB Majority	8,653	18.3%	0.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

45%

CON

Reform

47%

Green

LIB

OTH

Carlisle

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Julie Minns (LAB)
County/Area:	Cumbria (North West)
Electorate:	77,863
Turnout:	59.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,129	39.4%	22.0%
CON	12,929	28.1%	20.0%
Reform	9,295	20.2%	40.3%
LIB	2,982	6.5%	10.7%
Green	1,922	4.2%	6.6%
OTH	722	1.6%	0.4%
LAB Majority	5,200	11.3%	18.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

Reform

87%

LIB

Green

OTH

Carshalton and Wallington

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Bobby Dean (LIB)
County/Area:	Sutton (London)
Electorate:	74,362
Turnout:	62.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	20,126	43.1%	30.8%
CON	12,221	26.2%	20.0%
LAB	6,108	13.1%	12.3%
Reform	5,941	12.7%	28.8%
Green	1,517	3.3%	6.4%
MIN	441	0.9%	1.5%
OTH	316	0.7%	0.2%
LIB Majority	7,905	16.9%	2.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

51%

CON

LAB

Reform

39%

Green

MIN

OTH

Castle Point

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Rebecca Harris (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	70,967
Turnout:	57.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,485	38.1%	28.3%
Reform	12,234	30.1%	43.5%
LAB	9,455	23.3%	13.6%
Green	2,118	5.2%	6.6%
LIB	1,341	3.3%	7.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	3,251	8.0%	15.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

15%

Reform

84%

LAB

Green

LIB

OTH

Chatham and Aylesford

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Tristan Osborne (LAB)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	75,109
Turnout:	54.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	13,689	33.5%	19.4%
CON	11,691	28.6%	21.7%
Reform	9,989	24.5%	39.0%
Green	2,504	6.1%	8.9%
LIB	2,175	5.3%	9.6%
OTH	457	1.1%	0.3%
MIN	340	0.8%	1.1%
LAB Majority	1,998	4.9%	17.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

Reform

85%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Cheadle

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Tom Morrison (LIB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	74,383
Turnout:	68.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	23,681	46.7%	34.6%
CON	11,446	22.6%	17.6%
LAB	7,909	15.6%	13.4%
Reform	5,149	10.1%	25.4%
Green	1,630	3.2%	6.4%
MIN	811	1.6%	2.5%
OTH	105	0.2%	0.1%
LIB Majority	12,235	24.1%	9.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

71%

CON

LAB

Reform

23%

Green

MIN

OTH

Chelmsford

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Marie Goldman (LIB)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	76,972
Turnout:	65.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	20,214	39.9%	29.6%
CON	15,461	30.5%	25.0%
Reform	6,754	13.3%	27.1%
LAB	6,108	12.0%	11.2%
Green	1,588	3.1%	6.6%
OTH	486	1.0%	0.3%
MIN	105	0.2%	0.3%
LIB Majority	4,753	9.4%	2.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

44%

CON

23%

Reform

32%

LAB

Green

OTH

MIN

Chelsea and Fulham

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Ben Coleman (LAB)
County/Area:	Hammersmith and Fulham (London)
Electorate:	78,468
Turnout:	60.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,556	39.4%	27.6%
CON	18,404	39.1%	25.4%
LIB	3,611	7.7%	12.3%
Reform	3,144	6.7%	21.1%
Green	2,798	5.9%	11.3%
MIN	538	1.1%	2.3%
OTH	65	0.1%	0.1%
LAB Majority	152	0.3%	2.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

45%

CON

33%

LIB

Reform

19%

Green

MIN

OTH

Cheltenham

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Max Wilkinson (LIB)
County/Area:	Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate:	76,143
Turnout:	65.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	25,076	50.6%	37.7%
CON	17,866	36.1%	25.4%
Green	3,160	6.4%	9.3%
LAB	2,665	5.4%	8.6%
OTH	775	1.6%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	18.5%
LIB Majority	7,210	14.6%	12.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

78%

CON

16%

Green

LAB

OTH

Reform

Chesham and Amersham

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Sarah Green (LIB)
County/Area:	Buckinghamshire (South East)
Electorate:	74,889
Turnout:	72.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	24,422	44.8%	33.0%
CON	18,971	34.8%	27.5%
Reform	5,310	9.8%	23.0%
LAB	3,502	6.4%	8.9%
Green	1,673	3.1%	6.2%
MIN	466	0.9%	1.3%
OTH	111	0.2%	0.1%
LIB Majority	5,451	10.0%	5.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

58%

CON

27%

Reform

15%

LAB

Green

MIN

OTH

Cheshire Mid

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Andrew Graham Cooper (LAB)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	70,384
Turnout:	59.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,457	44.5%	26.5%
CON	9,530	23.0%	15.8%
Reform	7,967	19.2%	38.5%
LIB	2,465	5.9%	11.1%
Green	1,967	4.7%	7.4%
OTH	1,123	2.7%	0.8%
LAB Majority	8,927	21.5%	12.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

22%

CON

Reform

76%

LIB

Green

OTH

Chester North and Neston

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Samantha Dixon (LAB)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	70,215
Turnout:	63.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,258	49.8%	33.5%
CON	10,388	23.2%	15.5%
Reform	5,870	13.1%	28.9%
Green	4,102	9.2%	10.8%
LIB	2,076	4.6%	10.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	11,870	26.6%	4.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

62%

CON

Reform

34%

Green

LIB

OTH

Chester South and Eddisbury

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Aphra Brandreth (CON)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	74,284
Turnout:	70.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,905	37.9%	25.5%
LAB	16,848	32.1%	20.8%
Reform	6,414	12.2%	32.7%
LIB	5,430	10.3%	13.9%
Green	2,278	4.3%	6.5%
OTH	1,611	3.1%	0.5%
CON Majority	3,057	5.8%	7.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

26%

LAB

12%

Reform

61%

LIB

Green

OTH

Chesterfield

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Toby Perkins (LAB)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	71,654
Turnout:	58.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,316	46.5%	29.3%
CON	8,496	20.4%	14.4%
Reform	7,897	19.0%	35.7%
Green	2,682	6.5%	7.9%
LIB	2,553	6.1%	10.9%
OTH	363	0.9%	0.4%
MIN	248	0.6%	1.4%
LAB Majority	10,820	26.0%	6.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

32%

CON

Reform

66%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Chichester

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Jessica Brown-Fuller (LIB)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	78,374
Turnout:	66.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	25,540	49.2%	35.5%
CON	13,368	25.7%	20.6%
Reform	7,859	15.1%	29.6%
LAB	3,175	6.1%	7.9%
Green	1,815	3.5%	6.2%
OTH	190	0.4%	0.2%
LIB Majority	12,172	23.4%	5.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

62%

CON

Reform

32%

LAB

Green

OTH

Chingford and Woodford Green

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Iain Duncan Smith (CON)
County/Area:	Waltham Forest (London)
Electorate:	75,178
Turnout:	64.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,281	35.6%	25.1%
LAB	12,524	25.8%	19.1%
MIN	12,445	25.7%	18.4%
Reform	3,653	7.5%	24.3%
Green	1,334	2.7%	5.9%
LIB	1,275	2.6%	7.2%
CON Majority	4,757	9.8%	0.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

36%

LAB

15%

MIN

Reform

43%

Green

LIB

Chippenham

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Sarah Gibson (LIB)
County/Area:	Wiltshire (South West)
Electorate:	73,876
Turnout:	67.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	22,552	45.5%	33.4%
CON	14,414	29.1%	23.1%
Reform	6,127	12.4%	27.5%
LAB	3,925	7.9%	9.0%
Green	1,954	3.9%	6.7%
OTH	540	1.1%	0.3%
LIB Majority	8,138	16.4%	6.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

58%

CON

15%

Reform

27%

LAB

Green

OTH

Chipping Barnet

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Dan Tomlinson (LAB)
County/Area:	Barnet (London)
Electorate:	78,038
Turnout:	65.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,585	42.4%	30.0%
CON	18,671	36.7%	25.7%
Reform	3,986	7.8%	23.1%
Green	3,442	6.8%	10.1%
LIB	2,614	5.1%	10.5%
OTH	561	1.1%	0.5%
LAB Majority	2,914	5.7%	4.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

52%

CON

27%

Reform

19%

Green

LIB

OTH

Chorley

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Lindsay Hoyle (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	74,575
Turnout:	45.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,238	74.3%	43.5%
Green	4,663	13.7%	14.5%
OTH	4,063	12.0%	2.0%
CON	0	0.0%	3.3%
LIB	0	0.0%	10.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	26.3%
LAB Majority	20,575	60.6%	17.2% Pred Maj

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The Speaker is classed as Labour because he is part of a quartet along with three deputy speakers (2 CON, 1 LAB) who don't vote either.

Chance of winning

LAB

88%

Green

OTH

CON

LIB

Reform

11%

Christchurch

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Christopher Chope (CON)
County/Area:	Dorset (South West)
Electorate:	71,064
Turnout:	66.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,941	35.8%	27.5%
LIB	9,486	20.0%	19.4%
Reform	8,961	18.9%	34.7%
LAB	7,762	16.4%	11.3%
OTH	2,285	4.8%	0.9%
Green	1,900	4.0%	6.2%
CON Majority	7,455	15.7%	7.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

29%

LIB

Reform

63%

LAB

OTH

Green

Cities of London and Westminster

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Rachel Blake (LAB)
County/Area:	City of Westminster (London)
Electorate:	73,369
Turnout:	53.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,302	39.0%	28.9%
CON	12,594	32.1%	20.6%
LIB	4,335	11.1%	15.4%
Green	2,844	7.3%	12.0%
Reform	2,752	7.0%	20.2%
MIN	727	1.9%	2.4%
OTH	661	1.7%	0.5%
LAB Majority	2,708	6.9%	8.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

59%

CON

16%

LIB

Green

Reform

17%

MIN

OTH

Clacton

Prediction: Reform hold

MP at 2024:	Nigel Farage (Reform)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	78,703
Turnout:	58.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
Reform	21,225	46.2%	55.5%
CON	12,820	27.9%	20.8%
LAB	7,448	16.2%	9.5%
LIB	2,016	4.4%	8.3%
Green	1,935	4.2%	5.5%
OTH	514	1.1%	0.5%
Reform Majority	8,405	18.3%	34.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

Reform

99%

CON

LAB

LIB

Green

OTH

Clapham and Brixton Hill

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Bell Ribeiro-Addy (LAB)
County/Area:	Lambeth (London)
Electorate:	74,435
Turnout:	57.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,166	56.5%	41.2%
LIB	6,161	14.4%	16.7%
Green	5,768	13.5%	20.3%
CON	4,360	10.2%	5.0%
Reform	1,758	4.1%	16.2%
OTH	528	1.2%	0.6%
LAB Majority	18,005	42.1%	20.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

89%

LIB

Green

CON

Reform

OTH

Colchester

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Pam Cox (LAB)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	78,662
Turnout:	57.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,804	41.9%	28.0%
CON	10,554	23.5%	17.0%
Reform	6,664	14.8%	30.5%
LIB	6,393	14.2%	15.1%
Green	2,414	5.4%	9.0%
OTH	74	0.2%	0.4%
LAB Majority	8,250	18.4%	2.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

38%

CON

Reform

53%

LIB

Green

OTH

Colne Valley

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Paul Davies (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	72,638
Turnout:	63.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,970	41.0%	25.7%
CON	14,007	30.3%	20.1%
Reform	7,298	15.8%	34.7%
Green	3,480	7.5%	9.2%
LIB	2,007	4.3%	9.9%
OTH	459	1.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	4,963	10.7%	8.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

22%

CON

Reform

69%

Green

LIB

OTH

Congleton

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Sarah Alison Russell (LAB)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	74,243
Turnout:	67.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,875	37.7%	21.5%
CON	15,488	30.9%	22.4%
Reform	8,245	16.4%	35.7%
LIB	2,785	5.6%	12.0%
OTH	2,725	5.4%	1.0%
Green	2,007	4.0%	7.4%
LAB Majority	3,387	6.8%	13.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

13%

CON

13%

Reform

73%

LIB

OTH

Green

Corby and East Northamptonshire

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Lee Barron (LAB)
County/Area:	Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	78,787
Turnout:	62.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,020	42.4%	23.9%
CON	14,689	29.6%	20.4%
Reform	8,760	17.7%	38.5%
Green	2,507	5.1%	7.4%
LIB	2,191	4.4%	9.5%
OTH	422	0.9%	0.3%
LAB Majority	6,331	12.8%	14.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

12%

CON

Reform

81%

Green

LIB

OTH

Cornwall North

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Ben Maguire (LIB)
County/Area:	Cornwall (South West)
Electorate:	76,832
Turnout:	67.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	24,904	47.8%	34.2%
CON	14,137	27.2%	19.4%
Reform	8,444	16.2%	34.0%
LAB	2,958	5.7%	7.4%
Green	1,335	2.6%	4.8%
OTH	277	0.5%	0.2%
LIB Majority	10,767	20.7%	0.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

48%

CON

Reform

48%

LAB

Green

OTH

Cornwall South East

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Anna Gelderd (LAB)
County/Area:	Cornwall (South West)
Electorate:	72,728
Turnout:	67.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,670	31.8%	22.0%
CON	13,759	27.9%	19.7%
Reform	9,311	18.9%	35.2%
LIB	8,284	16.8%	16.7%
Green	1,999	4.1%	6.1%
OTH	263	0.5%	0.2%
LAB Majority	1,911	3.9%	13.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

12%

CON

Reform

76%

LIB

Green

OTH

Cotswolds North

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (CON)
County/Area:	Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate:	72,513
Turnout:	69.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,426	34.7%	24.8%
LIB	14,069	28.0%	23.9%
LAB	8,593	17.1%	14.1%
Reform	6,502	12.9%	28.8%
Green	3,191	6.4%	8.0%
OTH	448	0.9%	0.3%
CON Majority	3,357	6.7%	4.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

25%

LIB

24%

LAB

Reform

49%

Green

OTH

Cotswolds South

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Roz Savage (LIB)
County/Area:	Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate:	71,971
Turnout:	72.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	22,961	43.9%	34.1%
CON	17,988	34.4%	24.6%
Reform	5,146	9.8%	26.8%
LAB	3,942	7.5%	8.9%
Green	1,564	3.0%	5.4%
OTH	686	1.3%	0.3%
LIB Majority	4,973	9.5%	7.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

61%

CON

17%

Reform

22%

LAB

Green

OTH

Coventry East

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Mary Creagh (LAB)
County/Area:	Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
Electorate:	75,801
Turnout:	48.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,308	49.5%	32.5%
Reform	6,685	18.1%	32.6%
CON	6,240	16.9%	13.4%
Green	2,730	7.4%	9.1%
LIB	1,227	3.3%	8.9%
MIN	1,027	2.8%	3.0%
OTH	797	2.2%	0.5%
LAB Majority	11,623	31.4%	0.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

48%

Reform

51%

CON

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Coventry North West

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Taiwo Owatemi (LAB)
County/Area:	Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
Electorate:	75,057
Turnout:	56.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,696	46.9%	30.2%
CON	8,522	20.3%	15.4%
Reform	7,950	18.9%	33.9%
Green	3,420	8.1%	10.4%
LIB	1,931	4.6%	9.7%
OTH	511	1.2%	0.5%
LAB Majority	11,174	26.6%	3.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

39%

CON

Reform

58%

Green

LIB

OTH

Coventry South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Zarah Sultana (LAB)
County/Area:	Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
Electorate:	76,262
Turnout:	56.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,361	47.6%	31.0%
CON	10,160	23.8%	18.3%
Reform	5,711	13.4%	28.5%
LIB	2,531	5.9%	10.8%
Green	2,363	5.5%	9.0%
OTH	828	1.9%	0.4%
MIN	777	1.8%	1.9%
LAB Majority	10,201	23.9%	2.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

51%

CON

Reform

41%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Cramlington and Killingworth

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Emma Foody (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	76,228
Turnout:	59.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,274	49.1%	31.9%
Reform	9,454	20.8%	37.4%
CON	8,592	18.9%	12.8%
Green	2,144	4.7%	6.9%
LIB	1,898	4.2%	10.3%
OTH	1,032	2.3%	0.8%
LAB Majority	12,820	28.2%	5.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

35%

Reform

64%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Crawley

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Peter Lamb (LAB)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	75,569
Turnout:	60.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,453	38.2%	24.3%
CON	12,218	26.8%	21.6%
Reform	8,447	18.5%	32.6%
Green	2,621	5.7%	8.7%
MIN	2,407	5.3%	3.8%
LIB	2,205	4.8%	8.9%
OTH	291	0.6%	0.1%
LAB Majority	5,235	11.5%	8.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

21%

CON

12%

Reform

66%

Green

MIN

LIB

OTH

Crewe and Nantwich

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Connor Naismith (LAB)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	78,423
Turnout:	60.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,837	44.1%	25.9%
CON	11,110	23.5%	15.7%
Reform	9,602	20.3%	39.6%
LIB	2,286	4.8%	10.0%
Green	2,151	4.6%	7.2%
OTH	838	1.8%	0.5%
MIN	373	0.8%	1.1%
LAB Majority	9,727	20.6%	13.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

17%

CON

Reform

81%

LIB

Green

OTH

MIN

Croydon East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Natasha Dawn Irons (LAB)
County/Area:	Croydon (London)
Electorate:	76,660
Turnout:	57.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,541	42.4%	30.2%
CON	11,716	26.8%	19.2%
Reform	5,862	13.4%	28.2%
Green	4,097	9.4%	10.4%
LIB	3,563	8.1%	11.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	6,825	15.6%	2.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

50%

CON

Reform

40%

Green

LIB

OTH

Croydon South

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Chris Philp (CON)
County/Area:	Croydon (London)
Electorate:	74,968
Turnout:	65.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,757	40.0%	31.4%
LAB	17,444	35.3%	24.4%
LIB	4,384	8.9%	11.6%
Reform	4,149	8.4%	22.3%
Green	2,859	5.8%	8.8%
MIN	612	1.2%	1.4%
OTH	173	0.4%	0.1%
CON Majority	2,313	4.7%	7.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

58%

LAB

23%

LIB

Reform

17%

Green

MIN

OTH

Croydon West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Sarah Jones (LAB)
County/Area:	Croydon (London)
Electorate:	77,942
Turnout:	48.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,612	54.1%	37.2%
CON	6,386	16.8%	11.3%
Green	3,851	10.1%	14.4%
LIB	3,667	9.6%	12.5%
Reform	2,148	5.6%	21.9%
OTH	750	2.0%	0.5%
MIN	708	1.9%	2.2%
LAB Majority	14,226	37.3%	15.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

84%

CON

Green

LIB

Reform

11%

OTH

MIN

Dagenham and Rainham

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Margaret Mullane (LAB)
County/Area:	Barking and Dagenham (London)
Electorate:	76,478
Turnout:	50.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,571	42.6%	25.1%
Reform	9,398	24.2%	41.3%
CON	6,926	17.8%	13.7%
Green	4,184	10.8%	11.1%
LIB	1,033	2.7%	8.1%
OTH	755	1.9%	0.7%
LAB Majority	7,173	18.5%	16.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

13%

Reform

85%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Darlington

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Lola McEvoy (LAB)
County/Area:	Durham (North East)
Electorate:	70,763
Turnout:	59.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,621	39.2%	23.1%
CON	14,323	33.8%	21.9%
Reform	6,852	16.2%	36.8%
Green	2,847	6.7%	8.5%
LIB	1,735	4.1%	9.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	2,298	5.4%	13.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

13%

CON

Reform

78%

Green

LIB

OTH

Dartford

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jim Dickson (LAB)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	75,426
Turnout:	59.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,392	34.6%	20.2%
CON	14,200	31.9%	24.3%
Reform	9,523	21.4%	36.0%
Green	3,189	7.2%	9.9%
LIB	2,184	4.9%	9.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
LAB Majority	1,192	2.7%	11.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

16%

Reform

76%

Green

LIB

OTH

Daventry

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Stuart Andrew (CON)
County/Area:	Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	80,879
Turnout:	65.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,872	33.7%	21.9%
LAB	14,860	28.0%	15.8%
Reform	10,636	20.0%	39.9%
LIB	6,755	12.7%	14.7%
Green	2,959	5.6%	7.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	3,012	5.7%	18.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

Reform

89%

LIB

Green

OTH

Derby North

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Catherine Atkinson (LAB)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	71,900
Turnout:	56.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,619	45.5%	26.3%
CON	9,704	23.7%	16.4%
Reform	7,488	18.3%	36.8%
Green	3,286	8.0%	10.1%
LIB	1,822	4.5%	9.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	8,915	21.8%	10.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

22%

CON

Reform

75%

Green

LIB

OTH

Derby South

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Baggy Shanker (LAB)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	72,952
Turnout:	51.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,503	38.8%	23.6%
Reform	8,501	22.7%	37.4%
MIN	5,205	13.9%	11.4%
CON	5,192	13.9%	11.2%
Green	1,899	5.1%	7.1%
LIB	1,807	4.8%	9.1%
OTH	292	0.8%	0.1%
LAB Majority	6,002	16.0%	13.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

14%

Reform

84%

MIN

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Derbyshire Dales

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	John Michael Whitby (LAB)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	73,317
Turnout:	69.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,759	34.6%	21.8%
CON	17,409	34.0%	22.3%
Reform	7,728	15.1%	35.5%
LIB	4,860	9.5%	13.0%
Green	2,830	5.5%	7.1%
OTH	686	1.3%	0.3%
LAB Majority	350	0.7%	13.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

12%

CON

12%

Reform

75%

LIB

Green

OTH

Derbyshire Mid

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jonathan Peter Tom Davies (LAB)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	69,281
Turnout:	68.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,346	36.5%	22.4%
CON	15,468	32.5%	23.9%
Reform	8,356	17.6%	34.2%
Green	3,547	7.5%	9.0%
LIB	2,361	5.0%	9.8%
OTH	315	0.7%	0.2%
MIN	150	0.3%	0.5%
LAB Majority	1,878	4.0%	10.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

13%

CON

17%

Reform

70%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Derbyshire North East

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Louise Elizabeth Jones (LAB)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	73,139
Turnout:	62.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,591	38.4%	21.6%
CON	15,838	34.5%	24.1%
Reform	7,899	17.2%	38.0%
Green	2,271	5.0%	6.7%
LIB	2,159	4.7%	9.3%
OTH	108	0.2%	0.3%
LAB Majority	1,753	3.8%	13.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

15%

Reform

77%

Green

LIB

OTH

Derbyshire South

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Samantha Niblett (LAB)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	73,714
Turnout:	62.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,734	38.8%	20.7%
CON	13,566	29.7%	20.8%
Reform	8,979	19.6%	40.1%
LIB	2,134	4.7%	10.5%
Green	1,941	4.2%	7.2%
OTH	1,383	3.0%	0.7%
LAB Majority	4,168	9.1%	19.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

Reform

86%

LIB

Green

OTH

Devon Central

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Mel Stride (CON)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	75,385
Turnout:	70.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,831	31.5%	21.3%
LAB	16,770	31.4%	22.6%
LIB	8,232	15.4%	16.5%
Reform	7,784	14.6%	31.6%
Green	3,338	6.2%	7.8%
OTH	477	0.9%	0.2%
CON Majority	61	0.1%	9.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

14%

LAB

16%

LIB

Reform

64%

Green

OTH

Devon North

Prediction: Reform gain from LIB

MP at 2024:	Ian Roome (LIB)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	79,079
Turnout:	65.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	21,820	42.4%	30.8%
CON	15,076	29.3%	21.8%
Reform	8,137	15.8%	33.0%
LAB	3,216	6.3%	7.7%
Green	2,348	4.6%	6.4%
OTH	820	1.6%	0.4%
LIB Majority	6,744	13.1%	2.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

39%

CON

10%

Reform

51%

LAB

Green

OTH

Devon South

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Caroline Voaden (LIB)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	70,755
Turnout:	69.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	22,540	46.0%	34.4%
CON	15,413	31.5%	23.1%
Reform	6,363	13.0%	29.1%
LAB	3,066	6.3%	7.9%
Green	1,497	3.1%	5.3%
OTH	125	0.3%	0.2%
LIB Majority	7,127	14.5%	5.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

58%

CON

12%

Reform

30%

LAB

Green

OTH

Devon South West

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Rebecca Smith (CON)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	77,600
Turnout:	67.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,916	34.3%	25.4%
LAB	15,804	30.3%	19.6%
Reform	9,361	17.9%	32.4%
LIB	5,551	10.6%	13.9%
Green	2,925	5.6%	8.3%
OTH	685	1.3%	0.4%
CON Majority	2,112	4.0%	6.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

26%

LAB

Reform

62%

LIB

Green

OTH

Dewsbury and Batley

Prediction: Reform gain from MIN

MP at 2024:	Iqbal Hussain Mohamed (MIN)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	71,685
Turnout:	53.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
MIN	15,641	41.1%	27.7%
LAB	8,707	22.9%	15.9%
Reform	6,152	16.2%	30.7%
CON	4,182	11.0%	11.5%
Green	2,048	5.4%	6.6%
LIB	1,340	3.5%	7.7%
MIN Majority	6,934	18.2%	3.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

MIN

24%

LAB

Reform

69%

CON

Green

LIB

Didcot and Wantage

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Olly Glover (LIB)
County/Area:	Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate:	80,689
Turnout:	67.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	21,793	39.8%	31.1%
CON	15,560	28.4%	19.4%
LAB	8,045	14.7%	13.8%
Reform	6,400	11.7%	27.9%
Green	2,693	4.9%	7.4%
OTH	242	0.4%	0.3%
LIB Majority	6,233	11.4%	3.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

53%

CON

LAB

Reform

36%

Green

OTH

Doncaster Central

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Sally Jameson (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,678
Turnout:	50.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,515	46.2%	27.2%
CON	7,964	21.0%	14.1%
Reform	7,886	20.8%	39.8%
Green	1,880	5.0%	6.7%
LIB	1,199	3.2%	9.0%
MIN	758	2.0%	2.6%
OTH	742	2.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	9,551	25.2%	12.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

19%

CON

Reform

79%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Lee Pitcher (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	70,154
Turnout:	55.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,122	38.6%	20.7%
CON	12,811	32.7%	21.6%
Reform	8,487	21.7%	43.9%
Green	1,400	3.6%	5.4%
LIB	1,166	3.0%	8.1%
OTH	146	0.4%	0.2%
LAB Majority	2,311	5.9%	22.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

Reform

92%

Green

LIB

OTH

Doncaster North

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Ed Miliband (LAB)
County/Area:	South Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	69,759
Turnout:	44.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,231	52.4%	29.4%
CON	7,105	22.9%	14.9%
OTH	4,843	15.6%	3.9%
Green	1,778	5.7%	6.9%
LIB	1,045	3.4%	11.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	33.6%
LAB Majority	9,126	29.4%	4.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

42%

CON

OTH

Green

LIB

Reform

54%

Dorking and Horley

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Chris Coghlan (LIB)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	71,850
Turnout:	69.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	20,921	41.9%	31.7%
CON	15,530	31.1%	24.3%
Reform	6,898	13.8%	27.6%
LAB	4,053	8.1%	8.9%
Green	2,563	5.1%	7.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.2%
LIB Majority	5,391	10.8%	4.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

51%

CON

18%

Reform

31%

LAB

Green

OTH

Dorset Mid and North Poole

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Vikki Slade (LIB)
County/Area:	Dorset (South West)
Electorate:	75,294
Turnout:	65.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	21,442	43.3%	33.1%
CON	20,090	40.6%	29.6%
LAB	4,566	9.2%	8.6%
Green	2,355	4.8%	7.1%
OTH	1,061	2.1%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	21.1%
LIB Majority	1,352	2.7%	3.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

56%

CON

34%

LAB

Green

OTH

Reform

10%

Dorset North

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Simon Hoare (CON)
County/Area:	Dorset (South West)
Electorate:	72,690
Turnout:	68.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,208	36.6%	25.6%
LIB	16,619	33.5%	27.3%
Reform	7,894	15.9%	32.8%
LAB	4,370	8.8%	7.9%
Green	2,082	4.2%	6.1%
OTH	510	1.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	1,589	3.2%	5.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

19%

LIB

26%

Reform

55%

LAB

Green

OTH

Dorset South

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Lloyd Hatton (LAB)
County/Area:	Dorset (South West)
Electorate:	75,924
Turnout:	64.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,659	31.9%	21.3%
CON	14,611	29.8%	21.9%
Reform	8,168	16.7%	33.5%
LIB	8,017	16.3%	16.3%
Green	2,153	4.4%	6.7%
OTH	429	0.9%	0.3%
LAB Majority	1,048	2.1%	11.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

12%

CON

15%

Reform

69%

LIB

Green

OTH

Dorset West

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Edward Morello (LIB)
County/Area:	Dorset (South West)
Electorate:	75,998
Turnout:	69.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	26,999	51.3%	38.0%
CON	19,210	36.5%	26.8%
LAB	3,086	5.9%	8.1%
Green	2,288	4.3%	6.4%
OTH	1,022	1.9%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	20.4%
LIB Majority	7,789	14.8%	11.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

75%

CON

19%

LAB

Green

OTH

Reform

Dover and Deal

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Mike Tapp (LAB)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	76,406
Turnout:	62.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,940	39.6%	25.3%
Reform	11,355	23.8%	38.5%
CON	10,370	21.7%	17.1%
Green	3,106	6.5%	8.4%
LIB	2,595	5.4%	10.1%
OTH	1,311	2.7%	0.5%
MIN	98	0.2%	0.2%
LAB Majority	7,585	15.9%	13.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

17%

Reform

79%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Droitwich and Evesham

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Nigel Huddleston (CON)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	76,624
Turnout:	64.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,975	40.3%	28.0%
LAB	10,980	22.1%	14.2%
Reform	9,456	19.1%	35.3%
LIB	5,131	10.3%	13.1%
Green	3,828	7.7%	9.1%
OTH	239	0.5%	0.3%
CON Majority	8,995	18.1%	7.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

28%

LAB

Reform

69%

LIB

Green

OTH

Dudley

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Sonia Kumar (LAB)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	70,151
Turnout:	51.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	12,215	34.1%	18.3%
CON	10,315	28.8%	22.2%
Reform	9,442	26.4%	42.7%
Green	1,154	3.2%	6.4%
LIB	1,056	3.0%	8.4%
OTH	993	2.8%	0.5%
MIN	621	1.7%	1.5%
LAB Majority	1,900	5.3%	20.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

Reform

90%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Dulwich and West Norwood

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Helen Hayes (LAB)
County/Area:	Lambeth (London)
Electorate:	74,265
Turnout:	61.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,356	60.3%	43.6%
Green	8,567	18.9%	22.9%
CON	3,873	8.5%	4.2%
LIB	3,485	7.7%	13.0%
Reform	1,801	4.0%	15.7%
OTH	296	0.7%	0.5%
LAB Majority	18,789	41.4%	20.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

92%

Green

CON

LIB

Reform

OTH

Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Alex Mayer (LAB)
County/Area:	Bedfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	76,742
Turnout:	60.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,976	32.5%	21.6%
CON	14,309	31.1%	24.1%
Reform	8,071	17.5%	32.6%
LIB	6,497	14.1%	14.1%
Green	2,115	4.6%	7.4%
OTH	77	0.2%	0.3%
LAB Majority	667	1.4%	8.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

12%

CON

21%

Reform

64%

LIB

Green

OTH

Durham North

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Luke Akehurst (LAB)
County/Area:	Durham (North East)
Electorate:	73,235
Turnout:	56.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,562	39.8%	26.0%
Reform	10,689	25.7%	40.3%
CON	6,492	15.6%	10.6%
LIB	4,208	10.1%	13.0%
Green	2,366	5.7%	6.9%
MIN	928	2.2%	3.1%
OTH	320	0.8%	0.2%
LAB Majority	5,873	14.1%	14.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

16%

Reform

84%

CON

LIB

Green

MIN

OTH

Durham, City of

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Mary Foy (LAB)
County/Area:	Durham (North East)
Electorate:	70,582
Turnout:	57.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,131	47.1%	30.8%
Reform	7,374	18.2%	34.3%
LIB	5,920	14.6%	16.8%
CON	5,221	12.9%	8.7%
Green	2,803	6.9%	8.8%
OTH	178	0.4%	0.5%
LAB Majority	11,757	28.9%	3.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

38%

Reform

59%

LIB

CON

Green

OTH

Ealing Central and Acton

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Rupa Huq (LAB)
County/Area:	Ealing (London)
Electorate:	78,436
Turnout:	60.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,340	46.8%	34.9%
CON	8,345	17.5%	10.1%
LIB	6,056	12.7%	15.6%
Green	5,444	11.4%	17.0%
Reform	3,105	6.5%	18.0%
MIN	1,766	3.7%	4.0%
OTH	713	1.5%	0.3%
LAB Majority	13,995	29.3%	16.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

82%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

MIN

OTH

Ealing North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	James Murray (LAB)
County/Area:	Ealing (London)
Electorate:	74,820
Turnout:	57.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,663	47.8%	34.1%
CON	8,144	18.8%	13.7%
Green	4,056	9.4%	11.6%
Reform	3,948	9.1%	23.1%
MIN	3,139	7.3%	6.6%
LIB	2,543	5.9%	10.6%
OTH	739	1.7%	0.3%
LAB Majority	12,519	29.0%	11.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

76%

CON

Green

Reform

19%

MIN

LIB

OTH

Ealing Southall

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Deirdre Costigan (LAB)
County/Area:	Ealing (London)
Electorate:	78,669
Turnout:	59.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,000	49.1%	35.8%
CON	7,207	15.4%	11.3%
Green	4,356	9.3%	13.8%
MIN	4,237	9.1%	6.9%
LIB	2,832	6.0%	11.6%
OTH	2,599	5.6%	0.9%
Reform	2,585	5.5%	19.6%
LAB Majority	15,793	33.7%	16.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

84%

CON

Green

MIN

LIB

OTH

Reform

11%

Earley and Woodley

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Yuan Yang (LAB)
County/Area:	Berkshire (South East)
Electorate:	73,548
Turnout:	62.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,209	39.7%	27.2%
CON	17,361	37.8%	27.0%
LIB	6,142	13.4%	15.6%
Green	3,418	7.4%	9.8%
OTH	784	1.7%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	19.8%
LAB Majority	848	1.8%	0.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

41%

CON

41%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

13%

Easington

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Grahame Morris (LAB)
County/Area:	Durham (North East)
Electorate:	69,411
Turnout:	49.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,774	48.9%	29.5%
Reform	10,232	29.8%	47.0%
CON	3,753	10.9%	6.5%
OTH	1,581	4.6%	1.0%
Green	1,173	3.4%	6.6%
LIB	811	2.4%	9.5%
LAB Majority	6,542	19.1%	17.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

13%

Reform

87%

CON

OTH

Green

LIB

East Grinstead and Uckfield

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Mims Davies (CON)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	75,385
Turnout:	66.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,319	38.3%	27.5%
LIB	10,839	21.5%	22.1%
LAB	10,440	20.7%	15.0%
Green	5,277	10.5%	11.9%
OTH	4,518	9.0%	1.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	22.2%
CON Majority	8,480	16.8%	5.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

48%

LIB

20%

LAB

Green

OTH

Reform

24%

East Ham

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Stephen Timms (LAB)
County/Area:	Newham (London)
Electorate:	79,086
Turnout:	47.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,570	51.6%	35.5%
MIN	6,707	17.7%	12.3%
Green	4,226	11.2%	15.1%
CON	3,876	10.2%	9.0%
Reform	1,340	3.5%	18.8%
LIB	1,210	3.2%	8.9%
OTH	963	2.5%	0.4%
LAB Majority	12,863	33.9%	16.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

86%

MIN

Green

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

Eastbourne

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Josh Babarinde (LIB)
County/Area:	East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	72,592
Turnout:	62.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	23,742	52.1%	36.5%
CON	11,538	25.3%	19.0%
Reform	6,061	13.3%	29.7%
LAB	2,689	5.9%	8.2%
Green	1,421	3.1%	6.1%
OTH	154	0.3%	0.4%
LIB Majority	12,204	26.8%	6.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

67%

CON

Reform

29%

LAB

Green

OTH

Eastleigh

Prediction: Reform gain from LIB

MP at 2024:	Liz Jarvis (LIB)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	69,965
Turnout:	66.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	15,970	34.4%	26.9%
CON	14,424	31.1%	23.0%
LAB	7,005	15.1%	13.4%
Reform	6,151	13.3%	28.8%
Green	2,403	5.2%	7.4%
OTH	467	1.0%	0.5%
LIB Majority	1,546	3.3%	1.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

35%

CON

18%

LAB

Reform

45%

Green

OTH

Edmonton and Winchmore Hill

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Kate Osamor (LAB)
County/Area:	Enfield (London)
Electorate:	75,792
Turnout:	54.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,520	50.0%	34.6%
CON	7,888	19.2%	13.6%
Green	3,681	9.0%	11.2%
Reform	3,501	8.5%	25.9%
LIB	2,721	6.6%	12.0%
OTH	2,066	5.0%	1.1%
MIN	668	1.6%	1.7%
LAB Majority	12,632	30.8%	8.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

72%

CON

Green

Reform

24%

LIB

OTH

MIN

Ellesmere Port and Bromborough

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Justin Madders (LAB)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	70,799
Turnout:	59.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,186	57.6%	37.0%
Reform	7,278	17.3%	33.3%
CON	5,210	12.4%	9.3%
Green	2,706	6.4%	8.6%
LIB	2,328	5.5%	11.2%
OTH	256	0.6%	0.6%
LAB Majority	16,908	40.3%	3.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

60%

Reform

40%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Eltham and Chislehurst

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Clive Efford (LAB)
County/Area:	Greenwich (London)
Electorate:	74,224
Turnout:	61.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,069	44.0%	29.3%
CON	11,640	25.5%	18.0%
Reform	7,428	16.3%	31.2%
Green	3,079	6.8%	9.7%
LIB	2,423	5.3%	10.3%
OTH	571	1.3%	0.4%
MIN	356	0.8%	1.2%
LAB Majority	8,429	18.5%	1.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

42%

CON

Reform

51%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Ely and East Cambridgeshire

Prediction: Reform gain from LIB

MP at 2024:	Charlotte Cane (LIB)
County/Area:	Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	79,112
Turnout:	66.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	17,127	32.7%	26.4%
CON	16,632	31.8%	22.7%
LAB	9,160	17.5%	14.4%
Reform	6,443	12.3%	29.2%
Green	2,359	4.5%	6.9%
OTH	648	1.2%	0.3%
LIB Majority	495	0.9%	2.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

31%

CON

17%

LAB

Reform

49%

Green

OTH

Enfield North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Feryal Clark (LAB)
County/Area:	Enfield (London)
Electorate:	78,770
Turnout:	55.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,368	49.1%	34.2%
CON	8,632	19.8%	13.6%
Reform	5,146	11.8%	27.7%
Green	3,713	8.5%	10.8%
LIB	2,517	5.8%	11.0%
OTH	1,448	3.3%	0.8%
MIN	668	1.5%	1.8%
LAB Majority	12,736	29.3%	6.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

69%

CON

Reform

28%

Green

LIB

OTH

MIN

Epping Forest

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Neil Hudson (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	72,229
Turnout:	57.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,038	43.2%	31.2%
LAB	12,356	29.6%	18.0%
LIB	5,268	12.6%	15.4%
OTH	3,605	8.6%	1.3%
Green	2,486	6.0%	8.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	25.4%
CON Majority	5,682	13.6%	5.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

61%

LAB

LIB

OTH

Green

Reform

26%

Epsom and Ewell

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Helen Maguire (LIB)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	77,530
Turnout:	70.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	20,674	37.9%	30.4%
CON	16,988	31.2%	23.2%
LAB	8,325	15.3%	14.0%
Reform	5,795	10.6%	25.4%
Green	1,745	3.2%	6.4%
OTH	998	1.8%	0.6%
LIB Majority	3,686	6.8%	4.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

50%

CON

19%

LAB

Reform

28%

Green

OTH

Erewash

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Adam Thompson (LAB)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	71,497
Turnout:	60.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,224	40.1%	22.4%
CON	11,365	26.4%	19.7%
Reform	9,162	21.3%	39.9%
Green	2,478	5.8%	7.8%
LIB	2,426	5.6%	9.9%
OTH	351	0.8%	0.4%
LAB Majority	5,859	13.6%	17.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

10%

CON

Reform

84%

Green

LIB

OTH

Erith and Thamesmead

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Abena Oppong-Asare (LAB)
County/Area:	Greenwich (London)
Electorate:	78,886
Turnout:	51.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,246	55.1%	36.9%
Reform	5,944	14.7%	28.9%
CON	5,564	13.8%	10.3%
Green	3,482	8.6%	10.7%
LIB	1,872	4.6%	9.3%
MIN	1,071	2.7%	3.7%
OTH	200	0.5%	0.1%
LAB Majority	16,302	40.4%	7.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

70%

Reform

29%

CON

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Esher and Walton

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Monica Harding (LIB)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	74,042
Turnout:	72.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	28,315	52.6%	40.2%
CON	16,312	30.3%	22.3%
Reform	4,777	8.9%	22.2%
LAB	2,846	5.3%	8.6%
Green	1,396	2.6%	6.2%
OTH	234	0.4%	0.4%
LIB Majority	12,003	22.3%	17.9% Pred Maj

Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top

Chance of winning

LIB

84%

CON

Reform

LAB

Green

OTH

Essex North West

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Kemi Badenoch (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	79,824
Turnout:	68.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,360	35.6%	24.7%
LAB	16,750	30.8%	20.3%
Reform	7,668	14.1%	31.5%
LIB	6,055	11.1%	14.8%
Green	2,846	5.2%	8.1%
OTH	1,707	3.1%	0.6%
CON Majority	2,610	4.8%	6.8% Pred Maj

Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top

Chance of winning

CON

26%

LAB

12%

Reform

60%

LIB

Green

OTH

Exeter

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Steve Race (LAB)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	67,840
Turnout:	59.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,225	45.3%	33.3%
CON	6,288	15.6%	11.3%
Green	5,907	14.7%	15.6%
Reform	4,914	12.2%	24.8%
LIB	4,201	10.5%	14.4%
OTH	660	1.6%	0.7%
LAB Majority	11,937	29.7%	8.4% Pred Maj

Seat details with ward map, results and predictions. Top

Chance of winning

LAB

69%

CON

Green

Reform

25%

LIB

OTH