Constituency List: England C-E

Calder Valley
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Craig Whittaker (CON)
Electorate: 76,903
Turnout: 67.33%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,397	39.39%	40.20%
LAB	13,966	26.97%	37.34%
LIB	13,037	25.18%	11.99%
OTH	4,380	8.46%	10.46%
CON Majority	6,431	12.42%	Pred Maj 2.86%

Chance of winning

CON

53.9%

LAB

44.9%

LIB

0.5%

OTH

0.7%

Top

Camberwell and Peckham
County/Area: Southwark (South London)
MP: Harriet Harman (LAB)
Electorate: 78,618
Turnout: 59.35%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,619	59.19%	70.57%
LIB	10,432	22.36%	7.89%
CON	6,080	13.03%	13.92%
OTH	2,528	5.42%	7.62%
LAB Majority	17,187	36.84%	Pred Maj 56.66%

Chance of winning

LAB

100.0%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Camborne and Redruth
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
MP: George Eustice (CON)
Electorate: 63,968
Turnout: 66.43%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,969	37.58%	38.34%
LIB	15,903	37.42%	25.07%
LAB	6,945	16.34%	26.06%
OTH	3,676	8.65%	10.53%
CON Majority	66	0.16%	Pred Maj 12.28%

Chance of winning

CON

66.4%

LIB

10.2%

LAB

22.7%

OTH

0.7%

Top

Cambridge
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (East Anglia)
MP: Julian Huppert (LIB)
Electorate: 77,081
Turnout: 65.04%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	19,621	39.14%	25.85%
CON	12,829	25.59%	26.41%
LAB	12,174	24.28%	34.74%
MIN	3,804	7.59%	7.59%
OTH	1,702	3.40%	5.41%
LIB Majority	6,792	13.55%	Pred Maj 8.34%

Chance of winning

LIB

17.3%

CON

26.2%

LAB

55.7%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.8%

Top

LAB Gain

Cambridgeshire North East
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (East Anglia)
MP: Stephen Barclay (CON)
Electorate: 73,224
Turnout: 71.10%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,862	51.59%	52.41%
LIB	10,437	20.05%	6.75%
LAB	9,274	17.81%	28.27%
OTH	5,491	10.55%	12.57%
CON Majority	16,425	31.55%	Pred Maj 24.14%

Chance of winning

CON

90.6%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

9.1%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Cambridgeshire North West
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (East Anglia)
MP: Shailesh Vara (CON)
Electorate: 88,857
Turnout: 65.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,425	50.49%	51.30%
LIB	12,748	21.87%	8.58%
LAB	9,877	16.95%	27.40%
MIN	4,826	8.28%	8.28%
OTH	1,407	2.41%	4.43%
CON Majority	16,677	28.61%	Pred Maj 23.90%

Chance of winning

CON

91.6%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

8.2%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Cambridgeshire South
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (East Anglia)
MP: Andrew Lansley (CON)
Electorate: 78,995
Turnout: 74.76%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,995	47.40%	48.22%
LIB	20,157	34.13%	20.84%
LAB	6,024	10.20%	20.66%
OTH	4,880	8.26%	10.28%
CON Majority	7,838	13.27%	Pred Maj 27.38%

Chance of winning

CON

91.6%

LIB

1.6%

LAB

6.3%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Cambridgeshire South East
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (East Anglia)
MP: James Paice (CON)
Electorate: 83,068
Turnout: 69.34%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,629	47.97%	48.78%
LIB	21,683	37.64%	24.35%
LAB	4,380	7.60%	18.06%
OTH	3,910	6.79%	8.81%
CON Majority	5,946	10.32%	Pred Maj 24.43%

Chance of winning

CON

91.9%

LIB

3.4%

LAB

4.4%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Cannock Chase
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Aidan Burley (CON)
Electorate: 74,509
Turnout: 61.15%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,271	40.10%	40.82%
LAB	15,076	33.09%	42.31%
LIB	7,732	16.97%	5.25%
OTH	2,312	5.07%	6.86%
MIN	2,168	4.76%	4.76%
CON Majority	3,195	7.01%	Pred Maj 1.49%

Chance of winning

CON

46.1%

LAB

53.6%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

MIN

0.0%

Top

LAB Gain

Canterbury
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Julian Brazier (CON)
Electorate: 76,808
Turnout: 64.07%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,050	44.81%	45.59%
LIB	16,002	32.52%	19.83%
LAB	7,940	16.14%	26.12%
OTH	3,217	6.54%	8.47%
CON Majority	6,048	12.29%	Pred Maj 19.47%

Chance of winning

CON

84.9%

LIB

2.0%

LAB

12.8%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Carlisle
County/Area: Cumbria (North)
MP: John Stevenson (CON)
Electorate: 65,263
Turnout: 64.66%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,589	39.31%	39.96%
LAB	15,736	37.29%	45.64%
LIB	6,567	15.56%	4.94%
OTH	3,308	7.84%	9.45%
CON Majority	853	2.02%	Pred Maj 5.68%

Chance of winning

CON

34.8%

LAB

64.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

LAB Gain

Carshalton and Wallington
County/Area: Sutton (South London)
MP: Tom Brake (LIB)
Electorate: 66,520
Turnout: 69.03%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	22,180	48.30%	33.84%
CON	16,920	36.85%	37.74%
LAB	4,015	8.74%	20.13%
OTH	2,803	6.10%	8.30%
LIB Majority	5,260	11.46%	Pred Maj 3.90%

Chance of winning

LIB

32.7%

CON

53.2%

LAB

13.1%

OTH

1.0%

Top

CON Gain

Castle Point
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Rebecca Harris (CON)
Electorate: 67,284
Turnout: 66.92%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,806	43.99%	44.37%
MIN	12,174	27.04%	27.04%
LAB	6,609	14.68%	19.59%
LIB	4,232	9.40%	3.15%
OTH	2,205	4.90%	5.85%
CON Majority	7,632	16.95%	Pred Maj 17.33%

Chance of winning

CON

92.9%

MIN

0.5%

LAB

6.5%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Charnwood
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
MP: Stephen Dorrell (CON)
Electorate: 74,473
Turnout: 71.89%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,560	49.61%	50.43%
LIB	11,531	21.54%	8.10%
LAB	10,536	19.68%	30.25%
OTH	4,915	9.18%	11.22%
CON Majority	15,029	28.07%	Pred Maj 20.18%

Chance of winning

CON

86.5%

LIB

0.2%

LAB

13.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Chatham and Aylesford
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Tracey Crouch (CON)
Electorate: 71,122
Turnout: 61.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,230	46.18%	46.70%
LAB	14,161	32.33%	38.97%
LIB	5,832	13.31%	4.87%
OTH	3,584	8.18%	9.46%
CON Majority	6,069	13.85%	Pred Maj 7.73%

Chance of winning

CON

65.8%

LAB

34.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Cheadle
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Mark Hunter (LIB)
Electorate: 72,458
Turnout: 72.47%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	24,717	47.07%	33.20%
CON	21,445	40.84%	41.69%
LAB	4,920	9.37%	20.28%
OTH	1,430	2.72%	4.83%
LIB Majority	3,272	6.23%	Pred Maj 8.49%

Chance of winning

LIB

24.6%

CON

64.3%

LAB

10.6%

OTH

0.5%

Top

CON Gain

Chelmsford
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Simon Burns (CON)
Electorate: 77,529
Turnout: 70.42%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,207	46.17%	46.99%
LIB	20,097	36.81%	23.52%
LAB	5,980	10.95%	21.41%
OTH	3,309	6.06%	8.08%
CON Majority	5,110	9.36%	Pred Maj 23.47%

Chance of winning

CON

89.1%

LIB

3.4%

LAB

7.3%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Chelsea and Fulham
County/Area: Hammersmith and Fulham (North London)
MP: Greg Hands (CON)
Electorate: 66,295
Turnout: 60.12%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,093	60.45%	61.17%
LAB	7,371	18.49%	27.74%
LIB	6,473	16.24%	4.49%
OTH	1,919	4.81%	6.60%
CON Majority	16,722	41.96%	Pred Maj 33.43%

Chance of winning

CON

96.5%

LAB

3.5%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Cheltenham
County/Area: Gloucestershire (West)
MP: Martin Horwood (LIB)
Electorate: 78,998
Turnout: 66.82%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	26,659	50.50%	38.15%
CON	21,739	41.18%	41.94%
LAB	2,703	5.12%	14.84%
OTH	1,685	3.19%	5.07%
LIB Majority	4,920	9.32%	Pred Maj 3.79%

Chance of winning

LIB

38.3%

CON

59.4%

LAB

2.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

CON Gain

Chesham and Amersham
County/Area: Buckinghamshire (Essex)
MP: Cheryl Gillan (CON)
Electorate: 70,333
Turnout: 74.57%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,658	60.37%	61.18%
LIB	14,948	28.50%	15.21%
LAB	2,942	5.61%	16.07%
MIN	2,129	4.06%	4.06%
OTH	767	1.46%	3.48%
CON Majority	16,710	31.86%	Pred Maj 45.11%

Chance of winning

CON

99.2%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

0.7%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Chester, City of
County/Area: Cheshire (Severn)
MP: Stephen Mosley (CON)
Electorate: 68,874
Turnout: 67.94%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,995	40.60%	41.40%
LAB	16,412	35.08%	45.44%
LIB	8,930	19.09%	5.91%
OTH	2,453	5.24%	7.24%
CON Majority	2,583	5.52%	Pred Maj 4.04%

Chance of winning

CON

41.4%

LAB

58.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

LAB Gain

Chesterfield
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Toby Perkins (LAB)
Electorate: 71,878
Turnout: 63.77%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,891	39.03%	49.60%
LIB	17,342	37.83%	24.40%
CON	7,214	15.74%	16.56%
OTH	3,392	7.40%	9.44%
LAB Majority	549	1.20%	Pred Maj 25.20%

Chance of winning

LAB

91.2%

LIB

3.6%

CON

4.7%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Chichester
County/Area: West Sussex (South East)
MP: Andrew Tyrie (CON)
Electorate: 81,462
Turnout: 69.71%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,427	55.34%	56.12%
LIB	15,550	27.38%	14.69%
LAB	5,937	10.45%	20.44%
OTH	3,873	6.82%	8.75%
CON Majority	15,877	27.96%	Pred Maj 35.68%

Chance of winning

CON

97.0%

LIB

0.2%

LAB

2.7%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Chingford and Woodford Green
County/Area: Waltham Forest (North London)
MP: Iain Duncan Smith (CON)
Electorate: 64,831
Turnout: 66.49%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,743	52.76%	53.51%
LAB	9,780	22.69%	32.25%
LIB	7,242	16.80%	4.65%
OTH	3,341	7.75%	9.60%
CON Majority	12,963	30.07%	Pred Maj 21.26%

Chance of winning

CON

87.8%

LAB

12.0%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Chippenham
County/Area: Wiltshire (West)
MP: Duncan Hames (LIB)
Electorate: 72,105
Turnout: 72.65%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	23,970	45.76%	33.41%
CON	21,500	41.04%	41.80%
LAB	3,620	6.91%	16.63%
OTH	3,295	6.29%	8.17%
LIB Majority	2,470	4.72%	Pred Maj 8.39%

Chance of winning

LIB

23.0%

CON

71.8%

LAB

4.7%

OTH

0.5%

Top

CON Gain

Chipping Barnet
County/Area: Barnet (North London)
MP: Theresa Villiers (CON)
Electorate: 77,798
Turnout: 65.05%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,700	48.81%	49.69%
LAB	12,773	25.24%	36.62%
LIB	10,202	20.16%	5.69%
OTH	2,933	5.80%	7.99%
CON Majority	11,927	23.57%	Pred Maj 13.07%

Chance of winning

CON

77.2%

LAB

22.5%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Chorley
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Lindsay Hoyle (LAB)
Electorate: 70,950
Turnout: 70.15%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,515	43.23%	50.85%
CON	18,922	38.02%	38.61%
LIB	6,957	13.98%	4.29%
OTH	2,380	4.78%	6.25%
LAB Majority	2,593	5.21%	Pred Maj 12.24%

Chance of winning

LAB

81.1%

CON

18.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Christchurch
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
MP: Christopher Chope (CON)
Electorate: 68,861
Turnout: 71.76%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,888	56.44%	57.19%
LIB	12,478	25.25%	12.90%
LAB	4,849	9.81%	19.53%
OTH	4,201	8.50%	10.38%
CON Majority	15,410	31.18%	Pred Maj 37.66%

Chance of winning

CON

97.4%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

2.4%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Cities of London and Westminster
County/Area: City of Westminster (North London)
MP: Mark Field (CON)
Electorate: 66,489
Turnout: 55.54%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,264	52.16%	53.05%
LAB	8,188	22.17%	33.55%
LIB	7,574	20.51%	6.04%
OTH	1,905	5.16%	7.36%
CON Majority	11,076	29.99%	Pred Maj 19.50%

Chance of winning

CON

86.1%

LAB

13.7%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Clacton
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Douglas Carswell (CON)
Electorate: 67,194
Turnout: 64.18%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,867	53.03%	53.55%
LAB	10,799	25.04%	31.80%
LIB	5,577	12.93%	4.34%
OTH	3,880	9.00%	10.30%
CON Majority	12,068	27.99%	Pred Maj 21.75%

Chance of winning

CON

89.8%

LAB

10.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Cleethorpes
County/Area: Humber area (Humberside)
MP: Martin Vickers (CON)
Electorate: 70,214
Turnout: 64.04%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,939	42.12%	42.86%
LAB	14,641	32.56%	42.01%
LIB	8,192	18.22%	6.21%
OTH	3,194	7.10%	8.93%
CON Majority	4,298	9.56%	Pred Maj 0.85%

Chance of winning

CON

50.3%

LAB

49.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.4%

Top

Colchester
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Bob Russell (LIB)
Electorate: 74,062
Turnout: 62.30%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	22,151	48.01%	34.72%
CON	15,169	32.88%	33.69%
LAB	5,680	12.31%	22.77%
OTH	3,139	6.80%	8.82%
LIB Majority	6,982	15.13%	Pred Maj 1.03%

Chance of winning

LIB

42.3%

CON

41.7%

LAB

15.4%

OTH

0.6%

Top

Colne Valley
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Jason McCartney (CON)
Electorate: 80,062
Turnout: 69.07%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,440	36.96%	37.77%
LIB	15,603	28.22%	15.03%
LAB	14,589	26.38%	36.75%
OTH	4,664	8.43%	10.44%
CON Majority	4,837	8.75%	Pred Maj 1.02%

Chance of winning

CON

49.4%

LIB

1.8%

LAB

48.0%

OTH

0.8%

Top

Congleton
County/Area: Cheshire (Severn)
MP: Fiona Bruce (CON)
Electorate: 73,692
Turnout: 68.91%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,250	45.79%	46.63%
LIB	16,187	31.88%	18.07%
LAB	8,747	17.23%	28.09%
OTH	2,596	5.11%	7.21%
CON Majority	7,063	13.91%	Pred Maj 18.54%

Chance of winning

CON

82.7%

LIB

1.6%

LAB

15.4%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Copeland
County/Area: Cumbria (North)
MP: Jamie Reed (LAB)
Electorate: 63,291
Turnout: 67.60%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,699	46.04%	51.52%
CON	15,866	37.08%	37.51%
LIB	4,365	10.20%	3.24%
OTH	2,857	6.68%	7.74%
LAB Majority	3,833	8.96%	Pred Maj 14.01%

Chance of winning

LAB

89.5%

CON

10.5%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Corby
County/Area: Northamptonshire (East Anglia)
MP: Louise Bagshaw (CON)
Electorate: 78,305
Turnout: 69.26%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,886	42.20%	42.79%
LAB	20,991	38.70%	46.26%
LIB	7,834	14.44%	4.84%
OTH	2,525	4.66%	6.11%
CON Majority	1,895	3.49%	Pred Maj 3.47%

Chance of winning

CON

39.8%

LAB

60.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

LAB Gain

Cornwall North
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
MP: Dan Rogerson (LIB)
Electorate: 68,662
Turnout: 68.22%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	22,512	48.06%	35.71%
CON	19,531	41.69%	42.45%
MIN	2,300	4.91%	4.91%
LAB	1,971	4.21%	13.92%
OTH	530	1.13%	3.01%
LIB Majority	2,981	6.36%	Pred Maj 6.75%

Chance of winning

LIB

29.9%

CON

67.9%

MIN

0.0%

LAB

2.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

CON Gain

Cornwall South East
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
MP: Sheryll Murray (CON)
Electorate: 72,237
Turnout: 68.69%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,390	45.13%	45.88%
LIB	19,170	38.64%	26.28%
LAB	3,507	7.07%	16.79%
MIN	3,083	6.21%	6.21%
OTH	1,467	2.96%	4.83%
CON Majority	3,220	6.49%	Pred Maj 19.60%

Chance of winning

CON

89.9%

LIB

5.9%

LAB

4.1%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Cotswolds, The
County/Area: Gloucestershire (West)
MP: Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (CON)
Electorate: 76,728
Turnout: 71.46%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,075	53.03%	53.78%
LIB	16,211	29.56%	17.21%
LAB	5,886	10.73%	20.45%
OTH	3,660	6.67%	8.55%
CON Majority	12,864	23.46%	Pred Maj 33.33%

Chance of winning

CON

96.1%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

3.5%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Coventry North East
County/Area: Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
MP: Bob Ainsworth (LAB)
Electorate: 73,035
Turnout: 59.40%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,384	49.29%	58.32%
CON	9,609	22.15%	22.85%
LIB	7,210	16.62%	5.14%
OTH	5,180	11.94%	13.68%
LAB Majority	11,775	27.14%	Pred Maj 35.47%

Chance of winning

LAB

97.7%

CON

2.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Coventry North West
County/Area: Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
MP: Geoffrey Robinson (LAB)
Electorate: 72,871
Turnout: 63.89%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,936	42.82%	52.55%
CON	13,648	29.31%	30.07%
LIB	8,344	17.92%	5.55%
OTH	4,632	9.95%	11.83%
LAB Majority	6,288	13.51%	Pred Maj 22.48%

Chance of winning

LAB

90.0%

CON

9.8%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Coventry South
County/Area: Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
MP: Jim Cunningham (LAB)
Electorate: 73,652
Turnout: 62.35%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,197	41.80%	51.59%
CON	15,352	33.43%	34.19%
LIB	8,278	18.03%	5.58%
OTH	3,097	6.74%	8.63%
LAB Majority	3,845	8.37%	Pred Maj 17.40%

Chance of winning

LAB

84.3%

CON

15.5%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Crawley
County/Area: West Sussex (South East)
MP: Henry Smith (CON)
Electorate: 72,781
Turnout: 65.27%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,264	44.76%	45.32%
LAB	15,336	32.28%	39.47%
LIB	6,844	14.41%	5.27%
OTH	4,060	8.55%	9.94%
CON Majority	5,928	12.48%	Pred Maj 5.85%

Chance of winning

CON

60.7%

LAB

39.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Crewe and Nantwich
County/Area: Cheshire (Severn)
MP: Edward Timpson (CON)
Electorate: 77,460
Turnout: 65.95%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,420	45.85%	46.48%
LAB	17,374	34.01%	42.15%
LIB	7,656	14.99%	4.64%
OTH	2,634	5.16%	6.73%
CON Majority	6,046	11.84%	Pred Maj 4.33%

Chance of winning

CON

59.0%

LAB

40.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Croydon Central
County/Area: Croydon (South London)
MP: Gavin Barwell (CON)
Electorate: 78,880
Turnout: 62.97%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,567	39.40%	39.98%
LAB	16,688	33.60%	41.11%
LIB	6,553	13.19%	3.65%
OTH	3,620	7.29%	8.74%
MIN	3,239	6.52%	6.52%
CON Majority	2,879	5.80%	Pred Maj 1.13%

Chance of winning

CON

44.6%

LAB

55.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

MIN

0.0%

Top

LAB Gain

Croydon North
County/Area: Croydon (South London)
MP: Malcolm Wicks (LAB)
Electorate: 85,212
Turnout: 60.64%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	28,947	56.02%	63.97%
CON	12,466	24.12%	24.74%
LIB	7,226	13.98%	3.87%
OTH	3,037	5.88%	7.41%
LAB Majority	16,481	31.89%	Pred Maj 39.23%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.4%

CON

0.6%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Croydon South
County/Area: Croydon (South London)
MP: Richard Ottaway (CON)
Electorate: 81,301
Turnout: 69.28%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,684	50.93%	51.82%
LIB	12,866	22.84%	8.38%
LAB	11,287	20.04%	31.42%
OTH	3,485	6.19%	8.39%
CON Majority	15,818	28.08%	Pred Maj 20.39%

Chance of winning

CON

86.6%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

13.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Dagenham and Rainham
County/Area: Barking and Dagenham (North London)
MP: Jon Cruddas (LAB)
Electorate: 69,764
Turnout: 63.40%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,813	40.27%	45.17%
CON	15,183	34.33%	34.71%
MIN	4,952	11.20%	11.20%
LIB	3,806	8.60%	2.38%
OTH	2,478	5.60%	6.55%
LAB Majority	2,630	5.95%	Pred Maj 10.46%

Chance of winning

LAB

85.9%

CON

14.1%

MIN

0.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Darlington
County/Area: Durham (North)
MP: Jenny Chapman (LAB)
Electorate: 69,352
Turnout: 61.85%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,891	39.38%	50.12%
CON	13,503	31.48%	32.32%
LIB	10,046	23.42%	9.77%
OTH	2,456	5.73%	7.80%
LAB Majority	3,388	7.90%	Pred Maj 17.80%

Chance of winning

LAB

82.6%

CON

17.1%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Dartford
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Gareth Johnson (CON)
Electorate: 76,271
Turnout: 65.66%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,428	48.78%	49.35%
LAB	13,800	27.56%	34.89%
LIB	7,361	14.70%	5.37%
OTH	4,491	8.97%	10.38%
CON Majority	10,628	21.22%	Pred Maj 14.46%

Chance of winning

CON

79.5%

LAB

20.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Daventry
County/Area: Northamptonshire (East Anglia)
MP: Chris Heaton-Harris (CON)
Electorate: 71,451
Turnout: 72.46%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,252	56.50%	57.29%
LIB	10,064	19.44%	6.52%
LAB	8,168	15.78%	25.94%
OTH	4,290	8.29%	10.25%
CON Majority	19,188	37.06%	Pred Maj 31.35%

Chance of winning

CON

95.9%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

3.9%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Denton and Reddish
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Andrew Gwynne (LAB)
Electorate: 64,765
Turnout: 58.11%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,191	50.99%	60.74%
CON	9,360	24.87%	25.63%
LIB	6,727	17.87%	5.48%
OTH	2,357	6.26%	8.15%
LAB Majority	9,831	26.12%	Pred Maj 35.11%

Chance of winning

LAB

97.8%

CON

2.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Derby North
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Chris Williamson (LAB)
Electorate: 71,484
Turnout: 63.06%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,896	33.04%	43.61%
CON	14,283	31.68%	32.51%
LIB	12,638	28.03%	14.60%
OTH	3,263	7.24%	9.28%
LAB Majority	613	1.36%	Pred Maj 11.10%

Chance of winning

LAB

71.3%

CON

26.8%

LIB

1.1%

OTH

0.8%

Top

Derby South
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Margaret Beckett (LAB)
Electorate: 71,012
Turnout: 58.00%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,851	43.34%	53.91%
CON	11,729	28.48%	29.30%
LIB	8,430	20.47%	7.04%
OTH	3,178	7.72%	9.76%
LAB Majority	6,122	14.86%	Pred Maj 24.61%

Chance of winning

LAB

90.9%

CON

8.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Derbyshire Dales
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Patrick McLoughlin (CON)
Electorate: 63,367
Turnout: 73.82%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,378	52.11%	52.94%
LIB	10,512	22.47%	9.04%
LAB	9,061	19.37%	29.94%
OTH	2,829	6.05%	8.09%
CON Majority	13,866	29.64%	Pred Maj 23.00%

Chance of winning

CON

90.6%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

9.2%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Derbyshire Mid
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Pauline Latham (CON)
Electorate: 66,297
Turnout: 71.41%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,877	48.32%	49.15%
LAB	11,585	24.47%	35.04%
LIB	9,711	20.51%	7.08%
OTH	3,169	6.69%	8.73%
CON Majority	11,292	23.85%	Pred Maj 14.11%

Chance of winning

CON

79.7%

LAB

20.1%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Derbyshire North East
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Natascha Engel (LAB)
Electorate: 71,422
Turnout: 65.85%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,948	38.16%	48.73%
CON	15,503	32.96%	33.79%
LIB	10,947	23.27%	9.84%
OTH	2,636	5.60%	7.65%
LAB Majority	2,445	5.20%	Pred Maj 14.94%

Chance of winning

LAB

78.0%

CON

21.6%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Derbyshire South
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Heather Wheeler (CON)
Electorate: 70,610
Turnout: 71.40%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,935	45.49%	46.14%
LAB	15,807	31.35%	39.75%
LIB	8,012	15.89%	5.22%
OTH	3,665	7.27%	8.89%
CON Majority	7,128	14.14%	Pred Maj 6.40%

Chance of winning

CON

63.7%

LAB

36.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Devizes
County/Area: Wiltshire (West)
MP: Claire Perry (CON)
Electorate: 67,374
Turnout: 68.78%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,519	55.07%	55.83%
LIB	12,514	27.00%	14.65%
LAB	4,711	10.17%	19.88%
OTH	3,596	7.76%	9.64%
CON Majority	13,005	28.06%	Pred Maj 35.94%

Chance of winning

CON

97.1%

LIB

0.2%

LAB

2.6%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Devon Central
County/Area: Devon (South West)
MP: Mel Stride (CON)
Electorate: 71,204
Turnout: 75.66%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,737	51.49%	52.24%
LIB	18,507	34.35%	22.00%
LAB	3,715	6.90%	16.61%
MIN	2,870	5.33%	5.33%
OTH	1,044	1.94%	3.81%
CON Majority	9,230	17.13%	Pred Maj 30.24%

Chance of winning

CON

97.2%

LIB

0.6%

LAB

2.2%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Devon East
County/Area: Devon (South West)
MP: Hugo Swire (CON)
Electorate: 73,109
Turnout: 72.62%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,662	48.33%	49.09%
LIB	16,548	31.17%	18.82%
LAB	5,721	10.78%	20.49%
MIN	4,346	8.19%	8.19%
OTH	815	1.54%	3.41%
CON Majority	9,114	17.17%	Pred Maj 28.60%

Chance of winning

CON

94.6%

LIB

0.7%

LAB

4.6%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Devon North
County/Area: Devon (South West)
MP: Nick Harvey (LIB)
Electorate: 74,508
Turnout: 68.88%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	24,305	47.36%	35.01%
CON	18,484	36.02%	36.77%
MIN	3,720	7.25%	7.25%
LAB	2,671	5.20%	14.92%
OTH	2,141	4.17%	6.05%
LIB Majority	5,821	11.34%	Pred Maj 1.77%

Chance of winning

LIB

43.2%

CON

52.9%

MIN

0.0%

LAB

3.5%

OTH

0.4%

Top

CON Gain

Devon South West
County/Area: Devon (South West)
MP: Gary Streeter (CON)
Electorate: 70,059
Turnout: 71.17%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,908	55.97%	56.73%
LIB	12,034	24.14%	11.78%
LAB	6,193	12.42%	22.14%
OTH	3,725	7.47%	9.35%
CON Majority	15,874	31.84%	Pred Maj 34.59%

Chance of winning

CON

96.4%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

3.4%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Devon West and Torridge
County/Area: Devon (South West)
MP: Geoffrey Cox (CON)
Electorate: 76,574
Turnout: 72.16%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,230	45.66%	46.42%
LIB	22,273	40.31%	27.96%
MIN	3,021	5.47%	5.47%
LAB	2,917	5.28%	15.00%
OTH	1,816	3.29%	5.16%
CON Majority	2,957	5.35%	Pred Maj 18.46%

Chance of winning

CON

89.7%

LIB

7.0%

MIN

0.0%

LAB

3.2%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Dewsbury
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Simon Reevell (CON)
Electorate: 78,901
Turnout: 68.45%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,898	34.99%	35.68%
LAB	17,372	32.17%	40.95%
LIB	9,150	16.94%	5.77%
OTH	4,775	8.84%	10.54%
MIN	3,813	7.06%	7.06%
CON Majority	1,526	2.83%	Pred Maj 5.28%

Chance of winning

CON

36.4%

LAB

63.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.6%

MIN

0.0%

Top

LAB Gain

Don Valley
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Caroline Flint (LAB)
Electorate: 73,214
Turnout: 59.32%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,472	37.93%	46.79%
CON	12,877	29.65%	30.34%
LIB	7,422	17.09%	5.83%
OTH	6,659	15.33%	17.04%
LAB Majority	3,595	8.28%	Pred Maj 16.45%

Chance of winning

LAB

82.7%

CON

16.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

1.1%

Top

Doncaster Central
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Rosie Winterton (LAB)
Electorate: 75,207
Turnout: 55.51%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,569	39.69%	50.06%
CON	10,340	24.77%	25.58%
LIB	8,795	21.07%	7.89%
OTH	6,041	14.47%	16.47%
LAB Majority	6,229	14.92%	Pred Maj 24.48%

Chance of winning

LAB

89.5%

CON

9.3%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

1.1%

Top

Doncaster North
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Ed Milliband (LAB)
Electorate: 72,381
Turnout: 57.31%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,637	47.34%	55.06%
CON	8,728	21.04%	21.64%
LIB	6,174	14.88%	5.07%
OTH	4,126	9.95%	11.44%
MIN	2,818	6.79%	6.79%
LAB Majority	10,909	26.30%	Pred Maj 33.41%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.3%

CON

1.7%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Dorset Mid and Poole North
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
MP: Annette Brooke (LIB)
Electorate: 64,660
Turnout: 72.36%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	21,100	45.10%	32.75%
CON	20,831	44.52%	45.28%
LAB	2,748	5.87%	15.59%
OTH	2,109	4.51%	6.38%
LIB Majority	269	0.57%	Pred Maj 12.53%

Chance of winning

LIB

16.3%

CON

80.7%

LAB

2.8%

OTH

0.2%

Top

CON Gain

Dorset North
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
MP: Robert Walter (CON)
Electorate: 73,698
Turnout: 73.46%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,640	51.05%	51.81%
LIB	20,015	36.97%	24.62%
LAB	2,910	5.37%	15.09%
MIN	2,812	5.19%	5.19%
OTH	764	1.41%	3.29%
CON Majority	7,625	14.08%	Pred Maj 27.19%

Chance of winning

CON

96.6%

LIB

1.2%

LAB

2.2%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Dorset South
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
MP: Richard Drax (CON)
Electorate: 73,838
Turnout: 68.14%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,667	45.05%	45.77%
LAB	15,224	30.26%	39.49%
LIB	9,557	19.00%	7.26%
OTH	2,862	5.69%	7.47%
CON Majority	7,443	14.79%	Pred Maj 6.28%

Chance of winning

CON

63.9%

LAB

35.8%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Dorset West
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
MP: Oliver Letwin (CON)
Electorate: 76,869
Turnout: 74.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,287	47.59%	48.35%
LIB	23,364	40.75%	28.40%
LAB	3,815	6.65%	16.37%
OTH	2,871	5.01%	6.88%
CON Majority	3,923	6.84%	Pred Maj 19.95%

Chance of winning

CON

90.4%

LIB

6.1%

LAB

3.4%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Dover
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Charlie Elphicke (CON)
Electorate: 71,832
Turnout: 70.14%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,174	44.01%	44.62%
LAB	16,900	33.54%	41.43%
LIB	7,962	15.80%	5.78%
OTH	3,349	6.65%	8.17%
CON Majority	5,274	10.47%	Pred Maj 3.19%

Chance of winning

CON

54.9%

LAB

44.8%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Dudley North
County/Area: Black Country (West Midlands)
MP: Ian Austin (LAB)
Electorate: 60,838
Turnout: 63.45%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,923	38.66%	44.38%
CON	14,274	36.98%	37.42%
LIB	4,066	10.53%	3.26%
MIN	3,267	8.46%	8.46%
OTH	2,072	5.37%	6.47%
LAB Majority	649	1.68%	Pred Maj 6.96%

Chance of winning

LAB

74.6%

CON

25.4%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Dudley South
County/Area: Black Country (West Midlands)
MP: Chris Kelly (CON)
Electorate: 60,572
Turnout: 63.01%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,450	43.10%	43.77%
LAB	12,594	33.00%	41.52%
LIB	5,989	15.69%	4.86%
OTH	3,132	8.21%	9.85%
CON Majority	3,856	10.10%	Pred Maj 2.24%

Chance of winning

CON

52.3%

LAB

47.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Dulwich and West Norwood
County/Area: Lambeth (South London)
MP: Tessa Jowell (LAB)
Electorate: 72,817
Turnout: 66.21%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,461	46.59%	57.97%
LIB	13,096	27.16%	12.70%
CON	10,684	22.16%	23.05%
OTH	1,973	4.09%	6.29%
LAB Majority	9,365	19.42%	Pred Maj 34.92%

Chance of winning

LAB

95.9%

LIB

0.0%

CON

4.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Durham North
County/Area: Durham (North)
MP: Kevan Jones (LAB)
Electorate: 67,548
Turnout: 60.65%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,698	50.52%	61.26%
CON	8,622	21.05%	21.88%
LIB	8,617	21.03%	7.38%
OTH	3,030	7.40%	9.47%
LAB Majority	12,076	29.48%	Pred Maj 39.38%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.6%

CON

1.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Durham North West
County/Area: Durham (North)
MP: Pat Glass (LAB)
Electorate: 70,618
Turnout: 62.05%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,539	42.31%	53.05%
LIB	10,927	24.94%	11.29%
CON	8,766	20.01%	20.84%
OTH	3,111	7.10%	9.17%
MIN	2,472	5.64%	5.64%
LAB Majority	7,612	17.37%	Pred Maj 32.21%

Chance of winning

LAB

95.3%

LIB

0.1%

CON

4.4%

OTH

0.2%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Durham, City of
County/Area: Durham (North)
MP: Roberta Blackman-Woods (LAB)
Electorate: 68,832
Turnout: 67.20%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,496	44.31%	55.05%
LIB	17,429	37.68%	24.03%
CON	6,146	13.29%	14.13%
OTH	2,181	4.72%	6.79%
LAB Majority	3,067	6.63%	Pred Maj 31.02%

Chance of winning

LAB

96.8%

LIB

1.5%

CON

1.6%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Ealing Central and Acton
County/Area: Ealing (South London)
MP: Angie Bray (CON)
Electorate: 63,489
Turnout: 74.34%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,944	38.02%	38.90%
LAB	14,228	30.14%	41.53%
LIB	13,041	27.63%	13.16%
OTH	1,987	4.21%	6.41%
CON Majority	3,716	7.87%	Pred Maj 2.62%

Chance of winning

CON

44.6%

LAB

54.0%

LIB

0.8%

OTH

0.6%

Top

LAB Gain

Ealing North
County/Area: Ealing (South London)
MP: Stephen Pound (LAB)
Electorate: 67,902
Turnout: 70.22%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,023	50.39%	57.89%
CON	14,722	30.88%	31.46%
LIB	6,283	13.18%	3.65%
OTH	2,650	5.56%	7.01%
LAB Majority	9,301	19.51%	Pred Maj 26.42%

Chance of winning

LAB

96.0%

CON

4.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Ealing Southall
County/Area: Ealing (South London)
MP: Virendra Sharma (LAB)
Electorate: 60,379
Turnout: 70.81%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,024	51.51%	60.01%
CON	12,733	29.78%	30.44%
LIB	6,383	14.93%	4.13%
OTH	1,616	3.78%	5.42%
LAB Majority	9,291	21.73%	Pred Maj 29.56%

Chance of winning

LAB

96.6%

CON

3.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Easington
County/Area: Durham (North)
MP: Grahame Morris (LAB)
Electorate: 63,873
Turnout: 54.66%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,579	58.94%	67.55%
LIB	5,597	16.03%	5.09%
CON	4,790	13.72%	14.39%
OTH	3,948	11.31%	12.97%
LAB Majority	14,982	42.91%	Pred Maj 53.16%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.9%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.1%

OTH

0.0%

Top

East Ham
County/Area: Newham (North London)
MP: Stephen Timms (LAB)
Electorate: 90,675
Turnout: 55.55%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	35,471	70.42%	77.02%
CON	7,645	15.18%	15.69%
LIB	5,849	11.61%	3.21%
OTH	1,408	2.80%	4.07%
LAB Majority	27,826	55.24%	Pred Maj 61.33%

Chance of winning

LAB

100.0%

CON

0.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Eastbourne
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
MP: Stephen Lloyd (LIB)
Electorate: 77,840
Turnout: 66.96%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	24,658	47.31%	34.62%
CON	21,223	40.72%	41.49%
LAB	2,497	4.79%	14.77%
OTH	2,419	4.64%	6.57%
MIN	1,327	2.55%	2.55%
LIB Majority	3,435	6.59%	Pred Maj 6.88%

Chance of winning

LIB

28.9%

CON

67.6%

LAB

3.1%

OTH

0.4%

MIN

0.0%

Top

CON Gain

Eastleigh
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Christopher Huhne (LIB)
Electorate: 77,435
Turnout: 69.28%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	24,966	46.53%	33.85%
CON	21,102	39.33%	40.11%
LAB	5,153	9.60%	19.59%
OTH	2,429	4.53%	6.46%
LIB Majority	3,864	7.20%	Pred Maj 6.26%

Chance of winning

LIB

27.9%

CON

64.3%

LAB

7.6%

OTH

0.2%

Top

CON Gain

Eddisbury
County/Area: Cheshire (Severn)
MP: Stephen O'Brien (CON)
Electorate: 65,306
Turnout: 69.54%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,472	51.68%	52.53%
LIB	10,217	22.50%	8.69%
LAB	9,794	21.57%	32.43%
OTH	1,931	4.25%	6.35%
CON Majority	13,255	29.19%	Pred Maj 20.10%

Chance of winning

CON

87.4%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

12.4%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Edmonton
County/Area: Enfield (North London)
MP: Andy Love (LAB)
Electorate: 63,902
Turnout: 63.19%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,665	53.66%	59.65%
CON	12,052	29.85%	30.32%
LIB	4,252	10.53%	2.91%
OTH	2,408	5.96%	7.12%
LAB Majority	9,613	23.81%	Pred Maj 29.33%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.2%

CON

1.8%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Ellesmere Port and Neston
County/Area: Cheshire (Severn)
MP: Andrew Miller (LAB)
Electorate: 63,097
Turnout: 70.10%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,750	44.65%	52.83%
CON	15,419	34.86%	35.50%
LIB	6,663	15.06%	4.66%
OTH	2,401	5.43%	7.01%
LAB Majority	4,331	9.79%	Pred Maj 17.34%

Chance of winning

LAB

88.3%

CON

11.7%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Elmet and Rothwell
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Alec Shelbrooke (CON)
Electorate: 77,724
Turnout: 71.78%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,778	42.62%	43.28%
LAB	19,257	34.52%	42.98%
LIB	9,109	16.33%	5.57%
OTH	3,645	6.53%	8.17%
CON Majority	4,521	8.10%	Pred Maj 0.30%

Chance of winning

CON

48.5%

LAB

51.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Eltham
County/Area: Greenwich (South London)
MP: Clive Efford (LAB)
Electorate: 62,590
Turnout: 67.05%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,416	41.50%	48.69%
CON	15,753	37.54%	38.10%
LIB	5,299	12.63%	3.49%
OTH	3,496	8.33%	9.72%
LAB Majority	1,663	3.96%	Pred Maj 10.59%

Chance of winning

LAB

78.2%

CON

21.7%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Enfield North
County/Area: Enfield (North London)
MP: Nick de Bois (CON)
Electorate: 66,258
Turnout: 67.09%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,804	42.30%	42.84%
LAB	17,112	38.49%	45.41%
LIB	5,403	12.15%	3.36%
OTH	3,134	7.05%	8.39%
CON Majority	1,692	3.81%	Pred Maj 2.57%

Chance of winning

CON

40.6%

LAB

59.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

LAB Gain

Enfield Southgate
County/Area: Enfield (North London)
MP: David Burrowes (CON)
Electorate: 64,138
Turnout: 69.15%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,928	49.44%	50.05%
LAB	14,302	32.25%	40.10%
LIB	6,124	13.81%	3.82%
OTH	1,998	4.50%	6.02%
CON Majority	7,626	17.19%	Pred Maj 9.95%

Chance of winning

CON

72.7%

LAB

27.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Epping Forest
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Eleanor Laing (CON)
Electorate: 72,198
Turnout: 64.52%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,148	53.98%	54.80%
LIB	10,017	21.50%	8.21%
LAB	6,641	14.26%	24.71%
OTH	4,778	10.26%	12.28%
CON Majority	15,131	32.48%	Pred Maj 30.09%

Chance of winning

CON

95.0%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

4.8%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Epsom and Ewell
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Chris Grayling (CON)
Electorate: 78,104
Turnout: 70.36%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,868	56.17%	56.95%
LIB	14,734	26.81%	14.12%
LAB	6,538	11.90%	21.88%
OTH	2,815	5.12%	7.05%
CON Majority	16,134	29.36%	Pred Maj 35.07%

Chance of winning

CON

97.2%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

2.7%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Erewash
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Jessica Lee (CON)
Electorate: 69,654
Turnout: 68.40%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,805	39.47%	40.19%
LAB	16,304	34.22%	43.47%
LIB	8,343	17.51%	5.75%
OTH	4,190	8.79%	10.58%
CON Majority	2,501	5.25%	Pred Maj 3.28%

Chance of winning

CON

41.2%

LAB

58.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.5%

Top

LAB Gain

Erith and Thamesmead
County/Area: Bexley (South London)
MP: Teresa Pearce (LAB)
Electorate: 69,918
Turnout: 60.75%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,068	44.89%	51.75%
CON	13,365	31.46%	32.00%
LIB	5,116	12.04%	3.33%
OTH	2,743	6.46%	7.78%
MIN	2,184	5.14%	5.14%
LAB Majority	5,703	13.43%	Pred Maj 19.75%

Chance of winning

LAB

93.4%

CON

6.6%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Esher and Walton
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Dominic Raab (CON)
Electorate: 75,338
Turnout: 72.40%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,134	58.91%	59.69%
LIB	13,541	24.83%	12.14%
LAB	5,829	10.69%	20.67%
OTH	3,039	5.57%	7.50%
CON Majority	18,593	34.09%	Pred Maj 39.02%

Chance of winning

CON

98.3%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

1.6%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Exeter
County/Area: Devon (South West)
MP: Ben Bradshaw (LAB)
Electorate: 77,157
Turnout: 67.72%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,942	38.17%	47.89%
CON	17,221	32.96%	33.72%
LIB	10,581	20.25%	7.90%
OTH	4,503	8.62%	10.50%
LAB Majority	2,721	5.21%	Pred Maj 14.17%

Chance of winning

LAB

77.1%

CON

22.0%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.8%

Top