Constituency List: England C-E

Calder Valley
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Craig Whittaker (CON)
Electorate: 76,903
Turnout: 67.33%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,397	39.39%	30.62%
LAB	13,966	26.97%	36.68%
LIB	13,037	25.18%	10.12%
OTH	3,207	6.19%	7.93%
UKIP	1,173	2.27%	14.66%
CON Majority	6,431	12.42%	Pred Maj 6.06%

Chance of winning

CON

35.6%

LAB

60.5%

LIB

0.9%

OTH

0.2%

UKIP

2.8%

Top

LAB Gain

Camberwell and Peckham
County/Area: Southwark (South London)
MP: Harriet Harman (LAB)
Electorate: 78,618
Turnout: 59.35%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,619	59.19%	68.30%
LIB	10,432	22.36%	5.83%
CON	6,080	13.03%	7.20%
OTH	2,528	5.42%	7.04%
UKIP	0	0.00%	11.63%
LAB Majority	17,187	36.84%	Pred Maj 56.67%

Chance of winning

LAB

100.0%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.0%

Top

Camborne and Redruth
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
MP: George Eustice (CON)
Electorate: 63,968
Turnout: 66.43%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,969	37.58%	29.07%
LIB	15,903	37.42%	23.32%
LAB	6,945	16.34%	25.56%
UKIP	2,152	5.06%	16.83%
OTH	1,524	3.59%	5.23%
CON Majority	66	0.16%	Pred Maj 3.52%

Chance of winning

CON

45.6%

LIB

13.9%

LAB

33.2%

UKIP

7.2%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Cambridge
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (East Anglia)
MP: Julian Huppert (LIB)
Electorate: 77,081
Turnout: 65.04%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	19,621	39.14%	23.96%
CON	12,829	25.59%	17.10%
LAB	12,174	24.28%	33.93%
MIN	3,804	7.59%	7.59%
UKIP	1,195	2.38%	14.69%
OTH	507	1.01%	2.73%
LIB Majority	6,792	13.55%	Pred Maj 9.97%

Chance of winning

LIB

15.9%

CON

11.7%

LAB

66.6%

MIN

0.0%

UKIP

5.7%

OTH

0.1%

Top

LAB Gain

Cambridgeshire North East
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (East Anglia)
MP: Stephen Barclay (CON)
Electorate: 73,224
Turnout: 71.10%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,862	51.59%	43.11%
LIB	10,437	20.05%	4.86%
LAB	9,274	17.81%	27.45%
UKIP	2,991	5.74%	18.05%
OTH	2,500	4.80%	6.52%
CON Majority	16,425	31.55%	Pred Maj 15.65%

Chance of winning

CON

80.2%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

17.8%

UKIP

1.9%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Cambridgeshire North West
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (East Anglia)
MP: Shailesh Vara (CON)
Electorate: 88,857
Turnout: 65.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,425	50.49%	42.00%
LIB	12,748	21.87%	6.69%
LAB	9,877	16.95%	26.59%
UKIP	4,826	8.28%	20.59%
OTH	1,407	2.41%	4.13%
CON Majority	16,677	28.61%	Pred Maj 15.41%

Chance of winning

CON

78.7%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

17.2%

UKIP

4.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Cambridgeshire South
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (East Anglia)
MP: Andrew Lansley (CON)
Electorate: 78,995
Turnout: 74.76%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,995	47.40%	38.92%
LIB	20,157	34.13%	18.95%
LAB	6,024	10.20%	19.84%
OTH	3,007	5.09%	6.81%
UKIP	1,873	3.17%	15.48%
CON Majority	7,838	13.27%	Pred Maj 19.08%

Chance of winning

CON

79.8%

LIB

4.3%

LAB

12.5%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

3.3%

Top

Cambridgeshire South East
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (East Anglia)
MP: James Paice (CON)
Electorate: 83,068
Turnout: 69.34%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,629	47.97%	39.48%
LIB	21,683	37.64%	22.46%
LAB	4,380	7.60%	17.25%
UKIP	2,138	3.71%	16.02%
OTH	1,772	3.08%	4.80%
CON Majority	5,946	10.32%	Pred Maj 17.02%

Chance of winning

CON

82.2%

LIB

6.5%

LAB

8.1%

UKIP

3.2%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Cannock Chase
County/Area: Staffordshire (Severn)
MP: Aidan Burley (CON)
Electorate: 74,509
Turnout: 61.15%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,271	40.10%	31.48%
LAB	15,076	33.09%	42.06%
LIB	7,732	16.97%	3.58%
MIN	2,168	4.76%	4.76%
UKIP	1,580	3.47%	14.92%
OTH	732	1.61%	3.21%
CON Majority	3,195	7.01%	Pred Maj 10.58%

Chance of winning

CON

28.3%

LAB

69.9%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

UKIP

1.7%

OTH

0.1%

Top

LAB Gain

Canterbury
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Julian Brazier (CON)
Electorate: 76,808
Turnout: 64.07%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,050	44.81%	36.32%
LIB	16,002	32.52%	18.02%
LAB	7,940	16.14%	25.50%
UKIP	1,907	3.88%	15.83%
OTH	1,310	2.66%	4.33%
CON Majority	6,048	12.29%	Pred Maj 10.83%

Chance of winning

CON

68.9%

LIB

4.1%

LAB

23.1%

UKIP

3.8%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Carlisle
County/Area: Cumbria (North)
MP: John Stevenson (CON)
Electorate: 65,263
Turnout: 64.66%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,589	39.31%	30.28%
LAB	15,736	37.29%	45.91%
LIB	6,567	15.56%	3.43%
OTH	2,339	5.54%	7.08%
UKIP	969	2.30%	13.30%
CON Majority	853	2.02%	Pred Maj 15.63%

Chance of winning

CON

18.5%

LAB

80.6%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

0.8%

Top

LAB Gain

Carshalton and Wallington
County/Area: Sutton (South London)
MP: Tom Brake (LIB)
Electorate: 66,520
Turnout: 69.03%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	22,180	48.30%	31.78%
CON	16,920	36.85%	27.89%
LAB	4,015	8.74%	19.12%
OTH	1,455	3.17%	5.02%
UKIP	1,348	2.94%	16.19%
LIB Majority	5,260	11.46%	Pred Maj 3.88%

Chance of winning

LIB

40.8%

CON

31.9%

LAB

18.7%

OTH

0.4%

UKIP

8.2%

Top

Castle Point
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Rebecca Harris (CON)
Electorate: 67,284
Turnout: 66.92%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,806	43.99%	35.50%
MIN	12,174	27.04%	27.04%
LAB	6,609	14.68%	21.04%
LIB	4,232	9.40%	2.26%
OTH	2,205	4.90%	6.03%
UKIP	0	0.00%	8.12%
CON Majority	7,632	16.95%	Pred Maj 8.46%

Chance of winning

CON

75.9%

MIN

8.7%

LAB

14.8%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.6%

Top

Charnwood
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
MP: Stephen Dorrell (CON)
Electorate: 74,473
Turnout: 71.89%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,560	49.61%	41.07%
LIB	11,531	21.54%	6.19%
LAB	10,536	19.68%	29.40%
OTH	3,116	5.82%	7.55%
UKIP	1,799	3.36%	15.78%
CON Majority	15,029	28.07%	Pred Maj 11.67%

Chance of winning

CON

73.6%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

24.3%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

1.9%

Top

Chatham and Aylesford
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Tracey Crouch (CON)
Electorate: 71,122
Turnout: 61.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,230	46.18%	37.69%
LAB	14,161	32.33%	39.71%
LIB	5,832	13.31%	3.66%
OTH	2,270	5.18%	6.50%
UKIP	1,314	3.00%	12.43%
CON Majority	6,069	13.85%	Pred Maj 2.02%

Chance of winning

CON

46.1%

LAB

53.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

0.8%

Top

LAB Gain

Cheadle
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Mark Hunter (LIB)
Electorate: 72,458
Turnout: 72.47%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	24,717	47.07%	31.23%
CON	21,445	40.84%	31.54%
LAB	4,920	9.37%	19.61%
UKIP	1,430	2.72%	15.80%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.83%
LIB Majority	3,272	6.23%	Pred Maj 0.31%

Chance of winning

LIB

34.2%

CON

43.0%

LAB

16.2%

UKIP

6.5%

OTH

0.1%

Top

CON Gain

Chelmsford
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Simon Burns (CON)
Electorate: 77,529
Turnout: 70.42%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,207	46.17%	37.69%
LIB	20,097	36.81%	21.63%
LAB	5,980	10.95%	20.59%
OTH	1,782	3.26%	4.98%
UKIP	1,527	2.80%	15.11%
CON Majority	5,110	9.36%	Pred Maj 16.06%

Chance of winning

CON

75.0%

LIB

6.3%

LAB

15.1%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

3.5%

Top

Chelsea and Fulham
County/Area: Hammersmith and Fulham (North London)
MP: Greg Hands (CON)
Electorate: 66,295
Turnout: 60.12%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,093	60.45%	51.49%
LAB	7,371	18.49%	27.61%
LIB	6,473	16.24%	2.82%
OTH	1,441	3.62%	5.24%
UKIP	478	1.20%	12.84%
CON Majority	16,722	41.96%	Pred Maj 23.89%

Chance of winning

CON

90.4%

LAB

8.5%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

1.0%

Top

Cheltenham
County/Area: Gloucestershire (West)
MP: Martin Horwood (LIB)
Electorate: 78,998
Turnout: 66.82%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	26,659	50.50%	36.39%
CON	21,739	41.18%	32.68%
LAB	2,703	5.12%	14.33%
UKIP	1,192	2.26%	14.02%
OTH	493	0.93%	2.58%
LIB Majority	4,920	9.32%	Pred Maj 3.72%

Chance of winning

LIB

54.9%

CON

38.9%

LAB

3.9%

UKIP

2.3%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Chesham and Amersham
County/Area: Buckinghamshire (Essex)
MP: Cheryl Gillan (CON)
Electorate: 70,333
Turnout: 74.57%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,658	60.37%	51.88%
LIB	14,948	28.50%	13.32%
LAB	2,942	5.61%	15.25%
UKIP	2,129	4.06%	16.37%
OTH	767	1.46%	3.18%
CON Majority	16,710	31.86%	Pred Maj 35.51%

Chance of winning

CON

96.1%

LIB

0.5%

LAB

2.3%

UKIP

1.1%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Chester, City of
County/Area: Cheshire (Severn)
MP: Stephen Mosley (CON)
Electorate: 68,874
Turnout: 67.94%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,995	40.60%	31.97%
LAB	16,412	35.08%	44.72%
LIB	8,930	19.09%	4.03%
OTH	1,228	2.62%	4.35%
UKIP	1,225	2.62%	14.93%
CON Majority	2,583	5.52%	Pred Maj 12.75%

Chance of winning

CON

23.4%

LAB

74.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

1.6%

Top

LAB Gain

Chesterfield
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Toby Perkins (LAB)
Electorate: 71,878
Turnout: 63.77%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,891	39.03%	48.01%
LIB	17,342	37.83%	22.49%
CON	7,214	15.74%	9.02%
OTH	1,960	4.28%	5.88%
UKIP	1,432	3.12%	14.60%
LAB Majority	549	1.20%	Pred Maj 25.53%

Chance of winning

LAB

94.4%

LIB

2.9%

CON

0.9%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

1.8%

Top

Chichester
County/Area: West Sussex (South East)
MP: Andrew Tyrie (CON)
Electorate: 81,462
Turnout: 69.71%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,427	55.34%	46.85%
LIB	15,550	27.38%	12.89%
LAB	5,937	10.45%	19.82%
UKIP	3,873	6.82%	18.77%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.67%
CON Majority	15,877	27.96%	Pred Maj 27.04%

Chance of winning

CON

92.8%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

5.0%

UKIP

1.9%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Chingford and Woodford Green
County/Area: Waltham Forest (North London)
MP: Iain Duncan Smith (CON)
Electorate: 64,831
Turnout: 66.49%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,743	52.76%	43.81%
LAB	9,780	22.69%	31.99%
LIB	7,242	16.80%	2.92%
OTH	2,208	5.12%	6.78%
UKIP	1,133	2.63%	14.50%
CON Majority	12,963	30.07%	Pred Maj 11.82%

Chance of winning

CON

74.8%

LAB

24.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

1.2%

Top

Chippenham
County/Area: Wiltshire (West)
MP: Duncan Hames (LIB)
Electorate: 72,105
Turnout: 72.65%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	23,970	45.76%	31.65%
CON	21,500	41.04%	32.53%
LAB	3,620	6.91%	16.12%
UKIP	1,783	3.40%	15.17%
OTH	1,512	2.89%	4.53%
LIB Majority	2,470	4.72%	Pred Maj 0.89%

Chance of winning

LIB

38.2%

CON

49.7%

LAB

8.9%

UKIP

3.2%

OTH

0.0%

Top

CON Gain

Chipping Barnet
County/Area: Barnet (North London)
MP: Theresa Villiers (CON)
Electorate: 77,798
Turnout: 65.05%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,700	48.81%	39.85%
LAB	12,773	25.24%	35.62%
LIB	10,202	20.16%	3.63%
OTH	1,491	2.95%	4.80%
UKIP	1,442	2.85%	16.10%
CON Majority	11,927	23.57%	Pred Maj 4.23%

Chance of winning

CON

60.7%

LAB

37.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

1.8%

Top

Chorley
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Lindsay Hoyle (LAB)
Electorate: 70,950
Turnout: 70.15%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,515	43.23%	51.52%
CON	18,922	38.02%	28.72%
LIB	6,957	13.98%	2.91%
UKIP	2,021	4.06%	14.65%
OTH	359	0.72%	2.20%
LAB Majority	2,593	5.21%	Pred Maj 22.80%

Chance of winning

LAB

90.5%

CON

9.1%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

0.4%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Christchurch
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
MP: Christopher Chope (CON)
Electorate: 68,861
Turnout: 71.76%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,888	56.44%	47.93%
LIB	12,478	25.25%	11.14%
LAB	4,849	9.81%	19.02%
UKIP	4,201	8.50%	20.26%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.64%
CON Majority	15,410	31.18%	Pred Maj 27.66%

Chance of winning

CON

93.5%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

4.0%

UKIP

2.2%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Cities of London and Westminster
County/Area: City of Westminster (North London)
MP: Mark Field (CON)
Electorate: 66,489
Turnout: 55.54%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,264	52.16%	43.21%
LAB	8,188	22.17%	32.55%
LIB	7,574	20.51%	3.98%
OTH	1,241	3.36%	5.21%
UKIP	664	1.80%	15.05%
CON Majority	11,076	29.99%	Pred Maj 10.66%

Chance of winning

CON

72.3%

LAB

26.3%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

1.3%

Top

Clacton
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Douglas Carswell (CON)
Electorate: 67,194
Turnout: 64.18%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,867	53.03%	44.54%
LAB	10,799	25.04%	32.50%
LIB	5,577	12.93%	3.11%
OTH	3,880	9.00%	10.33%
UKIP	0	0.00%	9.52%
CON Majority	12,068	27.99%	Pred Maj 12.04%

Chance of winning

CON

75.6%

LAB

24.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.3%

Top

Cleethorpes
County/Area: Humber area (Humberside)
MP: Martin Vickers (CON)
Electorate: 70,214
Turnout: 64.04%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,939	42.12%	33.35%
LAB	14,641	32.56%	41.72%
LIB	8,192	18.22%	4.50%
UKIP	3,194	7.10%	18.80%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.63%
CON Majority	4,298	9.56%	Pred Maj 8.37%

Chance of winning

CON

33.0%

LAB

64.8%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

2.1%

OTH

0.1%

Top

LAB Gain

Colchester
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Bob Russell (LIB)
Electorate: 74,062
Turnout: 62.30%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	22,151	48.01%	32.83%
CON	15,169	32.88%	24.39%
LAB	5,680	12.31%	21.95%
OTH	1,789	3.88%	5.60%
UKIP	1,350	2.93%	15.24%
LIB Majority	6,982	15.13%	Pred Maj 8.44%

Chance of winning

LIB

52.3%

CON

22.1%

LAB

19.8%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

5.7%

Top

Colne Valley
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Jason McCartney (CON)
Electorate: 80,062
Turnout: 69.07%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,440	36.96%	28.19%
LIB	15,603	28.22%	13.16%
LAB	14,589	26.38%	36.09%
OTH	3,501	6.33%	8.06%
UKIP	1,163	2.10%	14.50%
CON Majority	4,837	8.75%	Pred Maj 7.89%

Chance of winning

CON

31.4%

LIB

1.6%

LAB

63.5%

OTH

0.4%

UKIP

3.1%

Top

LAB Gain

Congleton
County/Area: Cheshire (Severn)
MP: Fiona Bruce (CON)
Electorate: 73,692
Turnout: 68.91%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,250	45.79%	37.16%
LIB	16,187	31.88%	16.10%
LAB	8,747	17.23%	27.16%
UKIP	2,147	4.23%	16.92%
OTH	449	0.88%	2.66%
CON Majority	7,063	13.91%	Pred Maj 10.00%

Chance of winning

CON

65.9%

LIB

2.9%

LAB

26.1%

UKIP

5.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Copeland
County/Area: Cumbria (North)
MP: Jamie Reed (LAB)
Electorate: 63,291
Turnout: 67.60%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,699	46.04%	52.96%
CON	15,866	37.08%	28.05%
LIB	4,365	10.20%	2.25%
OTH	1,863	4.35%	5.59%
UKIP	994	2.32%	11.16%
LAB Majority	3,833	8.96%	Pred Maj 24.91%

Chance of winning

LAB

94.9%

CON

5.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.1%

Top

Corby
County/Area: Northamptonshire (East Anglia)
MP: Louise Bagshaw (CON)
Electorate: 78,305
Turnout: 69.26%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,886	42.20%	33.71%
LAB	20,991	38.70%	46.63%
LIB	7,834	14.44%	3.48%
OTH	2,525	4.66%	6.07%
UKIP	0	0.00%	10.12%
CON Majority	1,895	3.49%	Pred Maj 12.92%

Result shown is original general election result. Mr Andy Sawford (Lab) gained the seat in a by-election on 15 November 2012, after Ms Louise Mensch resigned the seat on 29 August 2012 for family reasons.

Chance of winning

CON

21.7%

LAB

78.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.3%

Top

LAB Gain

Cornwall North
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
MP: Dan Rogerson (LIB)
Electorate: 68,662
Turnout: 68.22%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	22,512	48.06%	33.95%
CON	19,531	41.69%	33.19%
UKIP	2,300	4.91%	16.67%
LAB	1,971	4.21%	13.42%
OTH	530	1.13%	2.78%
LIB Majority	2,981	6.36%	Pred Maj 0.76%

Chance of winning

LIB

45.0%

CON

46.9%

UKIP

3.5%

LAB

4.6%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Cornwall South East
County/Area: Cornwall (South West)
MP: Sheryll Murray (CON)
Electorate: 72,237
Turnout: 68.69%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,390	45.13%	36.62%
LIB	19,170	38.64%	24.53%
LAB	3,507	7.07%	16.28%
UKIP	3,083	6.21%	17.98%
OTH	1,467	2.96%	4.60%
CON Majority	3,220	6.49%	Pred Maj 12.09%

Chance of winning

CON

75.7%

LIB

10.9%

LAB

7.9%

UKIP

5.5%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Cotswolds, The
County/Area: Gloucestershire (West)
MP: Geoffrey Clifton-Brown (CON)
Electorate: 76,728
Turnout: 71.46%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,075	53.03%	44.52%
LIB	16,211	29.56%	15.46%
LAB	5,886	10.73%	19.95%
UKIP	2,292	4.18%	15.94%
OTH	1,368	2.49%	4.14%
CON Majority	12,864	23.46%	Pred Maj 24.57%

Chance of winning

CON

91.3%

LIB

1.0%

LAB

5.9%

UKIP

1.8%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Coventry North East
County/Area: Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
MP: Bob Ainsworth (LAB)
Electorate: 73,035
Turnout: 59.40%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,384	49.29%	58.14%
CON	9,609	22.15%	13.52%
LIB	7,210	16.62%	3.51%
OTH	3,889	8.96%	10.54%
UKIP	1,291	2.98%	14.28%
LAB Majority	11,775	27.14%	Pred Maj 43.86%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.3%

CON

0.6%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.1%

Top

Coventry North West
County/Area: Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
MP: Geoffrey Robinson (LAB)
Electorate: 72,871
Turnout: 63.89%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,936	42.82%	52.09%
CON	13,648	29.31%	20.69%
LIB	8,344	17.92%	3.79%
OTH	3,337	7.17%	8.82%
UKIP	1,295	2.78%	14.62%
LAB Majority	6,288	13.51%	Pred Maj 31.40%

Chance of winning

LAB

95.7%

CON

3.8%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.5%

Top

Coventry South
County/Area: Coventry and Solihull (West Midlands)
MP: Jim Cunningham (LAB)
Electorate: 73,652
Turnout: 62.35%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,197	41.80%	51.11%
CON	15,352	33.43%	24.80%
LIB	8,278	18.03%	3.81%
UKIP	1,767	3.85%	15.73%
OTH	1,330	2.90%	4.56%
LAB Majority	3,845	8.37%	Pred Maj 26.30%

Chance of winning

LAB

92.6%

CON

6.9%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

0.5%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Crawley
County/Area: West Sussex (South East)
MP: Henry Smith (CON)
Electorate: 72,781
Turnout: 65.27%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,264	44.76%	36.28%
LAB	15,336	32.28%	39.99%
LIB	6,844	14.41%	3.97%
OTH	2,678	5.64%	7.01%
UKIP	1,382	2.91%	12.75%
CON Majority	5,928	12.48%	Pred Maj 3.72%

Chance of winning

CON

42.5%

LAB

56.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

1.0%

Top

LAB Gain

Crewe and Nantwich
County/Area: Cheshire (Severn)
MP: Edward Timpson (CON)
Electorate: 77,460
Turnout: 65.95%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,420	45.85%	37.22%
LAB	17,374	34.01%	42.34%
LIB	7,656	14.99%	3.17%
UKIP	1,414	2.77%	13.40%
OTH	1,220	2.39%	3.87%
CON Majority	6,046	11.84%	Pred Maj 5.12%

Chance of winning

CON

39.7%

LAB

59.6%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

0.7%

OTH

0.0%

Top

LAB Gain

Croydon Central
County/Area: Croydon (South London)
MP: Gavin Barwell (CON)
Electorate: 78,880
Turnout: 62.97%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,567	39.40%	30.44%
LAB	16,688	33.60%	41.69%
LIB	6,553	13.19%	2.29%
MIN	3,239	6.52%	6.52%
OTH	2,623	5.28%	6.72%
UKIP	997	2.01%	12.33%
CON Majority	2,879	5.80%	Pred Maj 11.25%

Chance of winning

CON

26.1%

LAB

72.7%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

1.1%

Top

LAB Gain

Croydon North
County/Area: Croydon (South London)
MP: Malcolm Wicks (LAB)
Electorate: 85,212
Turnout: 60.64%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	28,947	56.02%	64.37%
CON	12,466	24.12%	15.17%
LIB	7,226	13.98%	2.43%
OTH	2,146	4.15%	5.64%
UKIP	891	1.72%	12.39%
LAB Majority	16,481	31.89%	Pred Maj 49.20%

Result shown is original general election result. Mr Steve Reed (Lab) held the seat in a by-election on 29 November 2012, after the death of Mr Malcolm Wicks in September 2012.

Chance of winning

LAB

99.8%

CON

0.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.1%

Top

Croydon South
County/Area: Croydon (South London)
MP: Richard Ottaway (CON)
Electorate: 81,301
Turnout: 69.28%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,684	50.93%	41.97%
LIB	12,866	22.84%	6.32%
LAB	11,287	20.04%	30.42%
UKIP	2,504	4.45%	17.70%
OTH	981	1.74%	3.59%
CON Majority	15,818	28.08%	Pred Maj 11.55%

Chance of winning

CON

73.1%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

24.1%

UKIP

2.7%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Dagenham and Rainham
County/Area: Barking and Dagenham (North London)
MP: Jon Cruddas (LAB)
Electorate: 69,764
Turnout: 63.40%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,813	40.27%	46.82%
CON	15,183	34.33%	25.37%
MIN	4,952	11.20%	11.20%
LIB	3,806	8.60%	1.49%
UKIP	1,569	3.55%	11.90%
OTH	909	2.06%	3.22%
LAB Majority	2,630	5.95%	Pred Maj 21.44%

Chance of winning

LAB

92.5%

CON

7.3%

MIN

0.0%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

0.2%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Darlington
County/Area: Durham (North)
MP: Jenny Chapman (LAB)
Electorate: 69,352
Turnout: 61.85%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,891	39.38%	49.41%
CON	13,503	31.48%	22.44%
LIB	10,046	23.42%	7.83%
OTH	1,262	2.94%	4.73%
UKIP	1,194	2.78%	15.59%
LAB Majority	3,388	7.90%	Pred Maj 26.96%

Chance of winning

LAB

91.0%

CON

7.5%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

1.4%

Top

Dartford
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Gareth Johnson (CON)
Electorate: 76,271
Turnout: 65.66%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,428	48.78%	40.29%
LAB	13,800	27.56%	35.35%
LIB	7,361	14.70%	4.05%
OTH	2,649	5.29%	6.68%
UKIP	1,842	3.68%	13.63%
CON Majority	10,628	21.22%	Pred Maj 4.94%

Chance of winning

CON

62.9%

LAB

36.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.7%

Top

Daventry
County/Area: Northamptonshire (East Anglia)
MP: Chris Heaton-Harris (CON)
Electorate: 71,451
Turnout: 72.46%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,252	56.50%	48.01%
LIB	10,064	19.44%	4.68%
LAB	8,168	15.78%	25.24%
UKIP	2,333	4.51%	16.59%
OTH	1,957	3.78%	5.47%
CON Majority	19,188	37.06%	Pred Maj 22.77%

Chance of winning

CON

90.1%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

8.4%

UKIP

1.4%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Denton and Reddish
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Andrew Gwynne (LAB)
Electorate: 64,765
Turnout: 58.11%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,191	50.99%	60.55%
CON	9,360	24.87%	15.57%
LIB	6,727	17.87%	3.72%
UKIP	2,060	5.47%	17.67%
OTH	297	0.79%	2.49%
LAB Majority	9,831	26.12%	Pred Maj 42.87%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.3%

CON

0.5%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

0.2%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Derby North
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Chris Williamson (LAB)
Electorate: 71,484
Turnout: 63.06%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,896	33.04%	42.77%
CON	14,283	31.68%	23.15%
LIB	12,638	28.03%	12.69%
OTH	2,434	5.40%	7.13%
UKIP	829	1.84%	14.26%
LAB Majority	613	1.36%	Pred Maj 19.62%

Chance of winning

LAB

83.1%

CON

13.0%

LIB

1.0%

OTH

0.2%

UKIP

2.7%

Top

Derby South
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Margaret Beckett (LAB)
Electorate: 71,012
Turnout: 58.00%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,851	43.34%	53.07%
CON	11,729	28.48%	19.94%
LIB	8,430	20.47%	5.12%
UKIP	1,821	4.42%	16.84%
OTH	1,357	3.29%	5.03%
LAB Majority	6,122	14.86%	Pred Maj 33.12%

Chance of winning

LAB

96.7%

CON

2.7%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

0.6%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Derbyshire Dales
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Patrick McLoughlin (CON)
Electorate: 63,367
Turnout: 73.82%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,378	52.11%	43.58%
LIB	10,512	22.47%	7.13%
LAB	9,061	19.37%	29.09%
UKIP	1,779	3.80%	16.22%
OTH	1,050	2.24%	3.98%
CON Majority	13,866	29.64%	Pred Maj 14.48%

Chance of winning

CON

78.3%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

20.1%

UKIP

1.5%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Derbyshire Mid
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Pauline Latham (CON)
Electorate: 66,297
Turnout: 71.41%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,877	48.32%	39.79%
LAB	11,585	24.47%	34.20%
LIB	9,711	20.51%	5.17%
OTH	1,917	4.05%	5.78%
UKIP	1,252	2.64%	15.06%
CON Majority	11,292	23.85%	Pred Maj 5.59%

Chance of winning

CON

63.9%

LAB

35.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

1.0%

Top

Derbyshire North East
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Natascha Engel (LAB)
Electorate: 71,422
Turnout: 65.85%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,948	38.16%	47.88%
CON	15,503	32.96%	24.43%
LIB	10,947	23.27%	7.93%
UKIP	2,636	5.60%	18.02%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.74%
LAB Majority	2,445	5.20%	Pred Maj 23.46%

Chance of winning

LAB

87.6%

CON

10.0%

LIB

0.1%

UKIP

2.3%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Derbyshire South
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Heather Wheeler (CON)
Electorate: 70,610
Turnout: 71.40%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,935	45.49%	36.96%
LAB	15,807	31.35%	39.79%
LIB	8,012	15.89%	3.70%
OTH	2,459	4.88%	6.38%
UKIP	1,206	2.39%	13.17%
CON Majority	7,128	14.14%	Pred Maj 2.84%

Chance of winning

CON

44.2%

LAB

54.8%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

0.9%

Top

LAB Gain

Devizes
County/Area: Wiltshire (West)
MP: Claire Perry (CON)
Electorate: 67,374
Turnout: 68.78%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,519	55.07%	46.56%
LIB	12,514	27.00%	12.90%
LAB	4,711	10.17%	19.38%
UKIP	2,076	4.48%	16.24%
OTH	1,520	3.28%	4.92%
CON Majority	13,005	28.06%	Pred Maj 27.18%

Chance of winning

CON

92.7%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

5.1%

UKIP

1.9%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Devon Central
County/Area: Devon (South West)
MP: Mel Stride (CON)
Electorate: 71,204
Turnout: 75.66%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,737	51.49%	42.98%
LIB	18,507	34.35%	20.24%
LAB	3,715	6.90%	16.11%
UKIP	2,870	5.33%	17.09%
OTH	1,044	1.94%	3.58%
CON Majority	9,230	17.13%	Pred Maj 22.73%

Chance of winning

CON

90.0%

LIB

2.7%

LAB

4.9%

UKIP

2.4%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Devon East
County/Area: Devon (South West)
MP: Hugo Swire (CON)
Electorate: 73,109
Turnout: 72.62%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,662	48.33%	39.83%
LIB	16,548	31.17%	17.06%
LAB	5,721	10.78%	19.99%
UKIP	4,346	8.19%	19.95%
OTH	815	1.54%	3.18%
CON Majority	9,114	17.17%	Pred Maj 19.84%

Chance of winning

CON

83.3%

LIB

2.2%

LAB

9.7%

UKIP

4.8%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Devon North
County/Area: Devon (South West)
MP: Nick Harvey (LIB)
Electorate: 74,508
Turnout: 68.88%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	24,305	47.36%	33.25%
CON	18,484	36.02%	27.51%
UKIP	3,720	7.25%	19.01%
LAB	2,671	5.20%	14.42%
OTH	2,141	4.17%	5.82%
LIB Majority	5,821	11.34%	Pred Maj 5.74%

Chance of winning

LIB

55.0%

CON

31.2%

UKIP

6.6%

LAB

7.2%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Devon South West
County/Area: Devon (South West)
MP: Gary Streeter (CON)
Electorate: 70,059
Turnout: 71.17%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,908	55.97%	47.46%
LIB	12,034	24.14%	10.03%
LAB	6,193	12.42%	21.63%
UKIP	3,084	6.19%	17.95%
OTH	641	1.29%	2.93%
CON Majority	15,874	31.84%	Pred Maj 25.83%

Chance of winning

CON

92.4%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

5.7%

UKIP

1.8%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Devon West and Torridge
County/Area: Devon (South West)
MP: Geoffrey Cox (CON)
Electorate: 76,574
Turnout: 72.16%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,230	45.66%	37.15%
LIB	22,273	40.31%	26.20%
UKIP	3,021	5.47%	17.23%
LAB	2,917	5.28%	14.49%
OTH	1,816	3.29%	4.93%
CON Majority	2,957	5.35%	Pred Maj 10.95%

Chance of winning

CON

75.9%

LIB

13.2%

UKIP

4.3%

LAB

6.6%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Dewsbury
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Simon Reevell (CON)
Electorate: 78,901
Turnout: 68.45%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,898	34.99%	26.22%
LAB	17,372	32.17%	40.93%
LIB	9,150	16.94%	4.19%
OTH	4,775	8.84%	10.41%
MIN	3,813	7.06%	7.06%
UKIP	0	0.00%	11.19%
CON Majority	1,526	2.83%	Pred Maj 14.71%

Chance of winning

CON

19.3%

LAB

78.7%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.2%

MIN

0.0%

UKIP

1.7%

Top

LAB Gain

Don Valley
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Caroline Flint (LAB)
Electorate: 73,214
Turnout: 59.32%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,472	37.93%	46.74%
CON	12,877	29.65%	20.88%
LIB	7,422	17.09%	4.22%
OTH	4,755	10.95%	12.52%
UKIP	1,904	4.38%	15.64%
LAB Majority	3,595	8.28%	Pred Maj 25.86%

Chance of winning

LAB

91.1%

CON

6.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

UKIP

1.7%

Top

Doncaster Central
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Rosie Winterton (LAB)
Electorate: 75,207
Turnout: 55.51%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,569	39.69%	49.40%
CON	10,340	24.77%	16.00%
LIB	8,795	21.07%	6.01%
OTH	4,620	11.07%	12.80%
UKIP	1,421	3.40%	15.80%
LAB Majority	6,229	14.92%	Pred Maj 33.40%

Chance of winning

LAB

94.3%

CON

3.7%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

UKIP

1.7%

Top

Doncaster North
County/Area: South Yorkshire (Humberside)
MP: Ed Milliband (LAB)
Electorate: 72,381
Turnout: 57.31%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,637	47.34%	55.47%
CON	8,728	21.04%	12.27%
LIB	6,174	14.88%	3.68%
MIN	2,818	6.79%	6.79%
OTH	2,329	5.61%	7.07%
UKIP	1,797	4.33%	14.72%
LAB Majority	10,909	26.30%	Pred Maj 40.75%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.4%

CON

0.4%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.2%

Top

Dorset Mid and Poole North
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
MP: Annette Brooke (LIB)
Electorate: 64,660
Turnout: 72.36%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	21,100	45.10%	30.99%
CON	20,831	44.52%	36.01%
LAB	2,748	5.87%	15.09%
UKIP	2,109	4.51%	16.27%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.64%
LIB Majority	269	0.57%	Pred Maj 5.03%

Chance of winning

LIB

27.8%

CON

63.4%

LAB

5.7%

UKIP

3.1%

OTH

0.0%

Top

CON Gain

Dorset North
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
MP: Robert Walter (CON)
Electorate: 73,698
Turnout: 73.46%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,640	51.05%	42.54%
LIB	20,015	36.97%	22.86%
LAB	2,910	5.37%	14.59%
UKIP	2,812	5.19%	16.96%
OTH	764	1.41%	3.05%
CON Majority	7,625	14.08%	Pred Maj 19.69%

Chance of winning

CON

89.1%

LIB

4.3%

LAB

4.1%

UKIP

2.5%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Dorset South
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
MP: Richard Drax (CON)
Electorate: 73,838
Turnout: 68.14%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,667	45.05%	36.55%
LAB	15,224	30.26%	39.18%
LIB	9,557	19.00%	5.59%
UKIP	2,034	4.04%	15.44%
OTH	828	1.65%	3.24%
CON Majority	7,443	14.79%	Pred Maj 2.64%

Chance of winning

CON

45.4%

LAB

53.2%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

1.3%

OTH

0.1%

Top

LAB Gain

Dorset West
County/Area: Dorset (South West)
MP: Oliver Letwin (CON)
Electorate: 76,869
Turnout: 74.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,287	47.59%	39.08%
LIB	23,364	40.75%	26.64%
LAB	3,815	6.65%	15.87%
UKIP	2,196	3.83%	15.59%
OTH	675	1.18%	2.82%
CON Majority	3,923	6.84%	Pred Maj 12.44%

Chance of winning

CON

80.2%

LIB

11.4%

LAB

6.0%

UKIP

2.4%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Dover
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Charlie Elphicke (CON)
Electorate: 71,832
Turnout: 70.14%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,174	44.01%	35.52%
LAB	16,900	33.54%	41.66%
LIB	7,962	15.80%	4.35%
UKIP	1,747	3.47%	13.84%
OTH	1,602	3.18%	4.63%
CON Majority	5,274	10.47%	Pred Maj 6.14%

Chance of winning

CON

36.6%

LAB

62.2%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

1.1%

OTH

0.1%

Top

LAB Gain

Dudley North
County/Area: Black Country (West Midlands)
MP: Ian Austin (LAB)
Electorate: 60,838
Turnout: 63.45%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,923	38.66%	45.56%
CON	14,274	36.98%	28.35%
LIB	4,066	10.53%	2.22%
UKIP	3,267	8.46%	17.27%
OTH	2,072	5.37%	6.60%
LAB Majority	649	1.68%	Pred Maj 17.20%

Chance of winning

LAB

85.9%

CON

12.8%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

1.3%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Dudley South
County/Area: Black Country (West Midlands)
MP: Chris Kelly (CON)
Electorate: 60,572
Turnout: 63.01%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,450	43.10%	34.48%
LAB	12,594	33.00%	41.55%
LIB	5,989	15.69%	3.31%
UKIP	3,132	8.21%	19.13%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.53%
CON Majority	3,856	10.10%	Pred Maj 7.08%

Chance of winning

CON

35.4%

LAB

62.7%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

1.9%

OTH

0.0%

Top

LAB Gain

Dulwich and West Norwood
County/Area: Lambeth (South London)
MP: Tessa Jowell (LAB)
Electorate: 72,817
Turnout: 66.21%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,461	46.59%	56.96%
LIB	13,096	27.16%	10.64%
CON	10,684	22.16%	13.20%
OTH	1,266	2.63%	4.48%
UKIP	707	1.47%	14.72%
LAB Majority	9,365	19.42%	Pred Maj 42.25%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.7%

LIB

0.0%

CON

1.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.3%

Top

Durham North
County/Area: Durham (North)
MP: Kevan Jones (LAB)
Electorate: 67,548
Turnout: 60.65%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,698	50.52%	60.55%
CON	8,622	21.05%	12.01%
LIB	8,617	21.03%	5.44%
OTH	1,686	4.12%	5.91%
UKIP	1,344	3.28%	16.09%
LAB Majority	12,076	29.48%	Pred Maj 44.47%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.4%

CON

0.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.2%

Top

Durham North West
County/Area: Durham (North)
MP: Pat Glass (LAB)
Electorate: 70,618
Turnout: 62.05%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,539	42.31%	52.34%
LIB	10,927	24.94%	9.35%
CON	8,766	20.01%	10.97%
MIN	2,472	5.64%	5.64%
OTH	1,852	4.23%	6.02%
UKIP	1,259	2.87%	15.68%
LAB Majority	7,612	17.37%	Pred Maj 36.66%

Chance of winning

LAB

97.9%

LIB

0.1%

CON

1.1%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.9%

Top

Durham, City of
County/Area: Durham (North)
MP: Roberta Blackman-Woods (LAB)
Electorate: 68,832
Turnout: 67.20%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,496	44.31%	53.11%
LIB	17,429	37.68%	22.09%
CON	6,146	13.29%	7.29%
OTH	1,325	2.86%	4.43%
UKIP	856	1.85%	13.08%
LAB Majority	3,067	6.63%	Pred Maj 31.02%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.0%

LIB

1.1%

CON

0.2%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.7%

Top

Ealing Central and Acton
County/Area: Ealing (South London)
MP: Angie Bray (CON)
Electorate: 63,489
Turnout: 74.34%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,944	38.02%	29.06%
LAB	14,228	30.14%	40.52%
LIB	13,041	27.63%	11.10%
OTH	1,222	2.59%	4.44%
UKIP	765	1.62%	14.87%
CON Majority	3,716	7.87%	Pred Maj 11.46%

Chance of winning

CON

27.0%

LAB

69.5%

LIB

0.8%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

2.6%

Top

LAB Gain

Ealing North
County/Area: Ealing (South London)
MP: Stephen Pound (LAB)
Electorate: 67,902
Turnout: 70.22%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,023	50.39%	58.47%
CON	14,722	30.88%	21.92%
LIB	6,283	13.18%	2.29%
OTH	1,965	4.12%	5.56%
UKIP	685	1.44%	11.76%
LAB Majority	9,301	19.51%	Pred Maj 36.55%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.6%

CON

1.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.1%

Top

Ealing Southall
County/Area: Ealing (South London)
MP: Virendra Sharma (LAB)
Electorate: 60,379
Turnout: 70.81%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,024	51.51%	60.18%
CON	12,733	29.78%	20.83%
LIB	6,383	14.93%	2.59%
OTH	1,616	3.78%	5.33%
UKIP	0	0.00%	11.07%
LAB Majority	9,291	21.73%	Pred Maj 39.36%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.8%

CON

1.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.1%

Top

Easington
County/Area: Durham (North)
MP: Grahame Morris (LAB)
Electorate: 63,873
Turnout: 54.66%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,579	58.94%	66.56%
LIB	5,597	16.03%	3.53%
CON	4,790	13.72%	7.52%
OTH	2,317	6.64%	7.99%
UKIP	1,631	4.67%	14.39%
LAB Majority	14,982	42.91%	Pred Maj 52.16%

Chance of winning

LAB

100.0%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.0%

Top

East Ham
County/Area: Newham (North London)
MP: Stephen Timms (LAB)
Electorate: 90,675
Turnout: 55.55%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	35,471	70.42%	77.09%
CON	7,645	15.18%	8.38%
LIB	5,849	11.61%	2.02%
OTH	1,408	2.80%	3.99%
UKIP	0	0.00%	8.52%
LAB Majority	27,826	55.24%	Pred Maj 68.57%

Chance of winning

LAB

100.0%

CON

0.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.0%

Top

Eastbourne
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
MP: Stephen Lloyd (LIB)
Electorate: 77,840
Turnout: 66.96%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	24,658	47.31%	32.81%
CON	21,223	40.72%	32.23%
LAB	2,497	4.79%	14.15%
MIN	1,327	2.55%	2.55%
UKIP	1,305	2.50%	14.46%
OTH	1,114	2.14%	3.81%
LIB Majority	3,435	6.59%	Pred Maj 0.58%

Chance of winning

LIB

43.6%

CON

46.6%

LAB

6.7%

MIN

0.0%

UKIP

3.1%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Eastleigh
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Christopher Huhne (LIB)
Electorate: 77,435
Turnout: 69.28%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	24,966	46.53%	32.04%
CON	21,102	39.33%	30.85%
LAB	5,153	9.60%	18.97%
UKIP	1,933	3.60%	15.55%
OTH	496	0.92%	2.59%
LIB Majority	3,864	7.20%	Pred Maj 1.19%

Result shown is original general election result. Mr Michael Thornton (Lib Dem) held the seat in a by-election on 28 February 2013, after Mr Christopher Huhne was convicted of perverting the course of justice on 4 February.

Chance of winning

LIB

41.1%

CON

43.0%

LAB

12.0%

UKIP

3.9%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Eddisbury
County/Area: Cheshire (Severn)
MP: Stephen O'Brien (CON)
Electorate: 65,306
Turnout: 69.54%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,472	51.68%	43.06%
LIB	10,217	22.50%	6.72%
LAB	9,794	21.57%	31.50%
UKIP	1,931	4.25%	16.94%
OTH	0	0.00%	1.77%
CON Majority	13,255	29.19%	Pred Maj 11.55%

Chance of winning

CON

74.5%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

23.6%

UKIP

1.8%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Edmonton
County/Area: Enfield (North London)
MP: Andy Love (LAB)
Electorate: 63,902
Turnout: 63.19%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,665	53.66%	60.85%
CON	12,052	29.85%	20.89%
LIB	4,252	10.53%	1.83%
OTH	1,372	3.40%	4.68%
UKIP	1,036	2.57%	11.75%
LAB Majority	9,613	23.81%	Pred Maj 39.95%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.5%

CON

0.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.1%

Top

Ellesmere Port and Neston
County/Area: Cheshire (Severn)
MP: Andrew Miller (LAB)
Electorate: 63,097
Turnout: 70.10%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,750	44.65%	53.00%
CON	15,419	34.86%	26.23%
LIB	6,663	15.06%	3.18%
UKIP	1,619	3.66%	14.32%
OTH	782	1.77%	3.26%
LAB Majority	4,331	9.79%	Pred Maj 26.77%

Chance of winning

LAB

94.5%

CON

5.2%

LIB

0.0%

UKIP

0.3%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Elmet and Rothwell
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Alec Shelbrooke (CON)
Electorate: 77,724
Turnout: 71.78%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,778	42.62%	33.85%
LAB	19,257	34.52%	43.10%
LIB	9,109	16.33%	4.03%
OTH	2,052	3.68%	5.21%
UKIP	1,593	2.86%	13.81%
CON Majority	4,521	8.10%	Pred Maj 9.25%

Chance of winning

CON

31.0%

LAB

67.8%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

1.1%

Top

LAB Gain

Eltham
County/Area: Greenwich (South London)
MP: Clive Efford (LAB)
Electorate: 62,590
Turnout: 67.05%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,416	41.50%	49.40%
CON	15,753	37.54%	28.58%
LIB	5,299	12.63%	2.19%
OTH	2,485	5.92%	7.33%
UKIP	1,011	2.41%	12.49%
LAB Majority	1,663	3.96%	Pred Maj 20.82%

Chance of winning

LAB

88.7%

CON

10.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.4%

Top

Enfield North
County/Area: Enfield (North London)
MP: Nick de Bois (CON)
Electorate: 66,258
Turnout: 67.09%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,804	42.30%	33.35%
LAB	17,112	38.49%	46.23%
LIB	5,403	12.15%	2.11%
OTH	2,196	4.94%	6.32%
UKIP	938	2.11%	11.99%
CON Majority	1,692	3.81%	Pred Maj 12.89%

Chance of winning

CON

22.1%

LAB

77.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.5%

Top

LAB Gain

Enfield Southgate
County/Area: Enfield (North London)
MP: David Burrowes (CON)
Electorate: 64,138
Turnout: 69.15%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,928	49.44%	40.49%
LAB	14,302	32.25%	40.54%
LIB	6,124	13.81%	2.40%
OTH	1,493	3.37%	4.85%
UKIP	505	1.14%	11.73%
CON Majority	7,626	17.19%	Pred Maj 0.06%

Chance of winning

CON

51.4%

LAB

48.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.4%

Top

LAB Gain

Epping Forest
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Eleanor Laing (CON)
Electorate: 72,198
Turnout: 64.52%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,148	53.98%	45.50%
LIB	10,017	21.50%	6.32%
LAB	6,641	14.26%	23.90%
OTH	2,926	6.28%	8.00%
UKIP	1,852	3.98%	16.29%
CON Majority	15,131	32.48%	Pred Maj 21.60%

Chance of winning

CON

88.5%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

9.6%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

1.8%

Top

Epsom and Ewell
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Chris Grayling (CON)
Electorate: 78,104
Turnout: 70.36%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,868	56.17%	47.68%
LIB	14,734	26.81%	12.32%
LAB	6,538	11.90%	21.26%
UKIP	2,549	4.64%	16.59%
OTH	266	0.48%	2.15%
CON Majority	16,134	29.36%	Pred Maj 26.42%

Chance of winning

CON

92.9%

LIB

0.4%

LAB

5.2%

UKIP

1.5%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Erewash
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Jessica Lee (CON)
Electorate: 69,654
Turnout: 68.40%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,805	39.47%	30.94%
LAB	16,304	34.22%	43.17%
LIB	8,343	17.51%	4.08%
OTH	3,335	7.00%	8.60%
UKIP	855	1.79%	13.22%
CON Majority	2,501	5.25%	Pred Maj 12.23%

Chance of winning

CON

23.1%

LAB

75.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

UKIP

1.4%

Top

LAB Gain

Erith and Thamesmead
County/Area: Bexley (South London)
MP: Teresa Pearce (LAB)
Electorate: 69,918
Turnout: 60.75%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,068	44.89%	52.59%
CON	13,365	31.46%	22.51%
LIB	5,116	12.04%	2.09%
MIN	2,184	5.14%	5.14%
OTH	1,604	3.78%	5.15%
UKIP	1,139	2.68%	12.51%
LAB Majority	5,703	13.43%	Pred Maj 30.08%

Chance of winning

LAB

97.2%

CON

2.6%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

UKIP

0.2%

Top

Esher and Walton
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Dominic Raab (CON)
Electorate: 75,338
Turnout: 72.40%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,134	58.91%	50.43%
LIB	13,541	24.83%	10.33%
LAB	5,829	10.69%	20.05%
UKIP	1,783	3.27%	15.22%
OTH	1,256	2.30%	3.97%
CON Majority	18,593	34.09%	Pred Maj 30.38%

Chance of winning

CON

95.1%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

3.7%

UKIP

1.1%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Exeter
County/Area: Devon (South West)
MP: Ben Bradshaw (LAB)
Electorate: 77,157
Turnout: 67.72%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,942	38.17%	47.38%
CON	17,221	32.96%	24.45%
LIB	10,581	20.25%	6.14%
OTH	2,573	4.92%	6.57%
UKIP	1,930	3.69%	15.46%
LAB Majority	2,721	5.21%	Pred Maj 22.93%

Chance of winning

LAB

86.9%

CON

10.6%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.2%

UKIP

2.2%

Top