Constituency List: England F-K

Fareham and Waterlooville

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Suella Braverman (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	77,691
Turnout:	64.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,561	35.0%	37.0%
LAB	11,482	22.9%	9.3%
LIB	9,533	19.0%	10.5%
Reform	9,084	18.1%	33.7%
Green	2,036	4.1%	6.3%
OTH	427	0.9%	3.3%
CON Majority	6,079	12.1%	3.3% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result. Suella Braverman has since moved to Reform UK.

Chance of winning

CON

47%

LAB

LIB

Reform

47%

Green

OTH

Farnham and Bordon

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Gregory Stafford (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	75,918
Turnout:	69.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,951	35.7%	25.8%
LIB	17,602	33.2%	25.5%
LAB	7,328	13.8%	9.9%
Reform	6,217	11.7%	27.6%
Green	2,496	4.7%	9.1%
OTH	421	0.8%	2.2%
CON Majority	1,349	2.5%	1.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

30%

LIB

31%

LAB

Reform

38%

Green

OTH

Faversham and Mid Kent

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Helen Whately (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	74,301
Turnout:	62.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	14,816	31.8%	36.4%
LAB	13,347	28.6%	9.0%
Reform	9,884	21.2%	38.6%
Green	4,218	9.1%	8.0%
LIB	4,158	8.9%	4.6%
OTH	171	0.4%	3.5%
CON Majority	1,469	3.2%	2.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

33%

LAB

Reform

64%

Green

LIB

OTH

Feltham and Heston

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Seema Malhotra (LAB)
County/Area:	Hounslow (London)
Electorate:	76,983
Turnout:	50.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,139	41.5%	22.2%
CON	8,195	21.1%	18.4%
Reform	5,130	13.2%	22.7%
OTH	2,858	7.3%	3.4%
Green	2,543	6.5%	19.3%
MIN	2,201	5.7%	6.9%
LIB	1,821	4.7%	7.0%
LAB Majority	7,944	20.4%	0.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

35%

CON

15%

Reform

28%

OTH

Green

21%

MIN

LIB

Filton and Bradley Stoke

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Claire Hazelgrove (LAB)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	77,584
Turnout:	64.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,905	45.5%	26.3%
CON	12,905	25.6%	19.9%
Reform	6,819	13.5%	20.8%
Green	4,142	8.2%	19.0%
LIB	3,596	7.1%	10.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.7%
LAB Majority	10,000	19.9%	5.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

47%

CON

19%

Reform

20%

Green

13%

LIB

OTH

Finchley and Golders Green

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Sarah Sackman (LAB)
County/Area:	Barnet (London)
Electorate:	77,500
Turnout:	63.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,857	44.3%	25.7%
CON	17,276	35.1%	25.1%
LIB	3,375	6.8%	9.9%
Green	3,107	6.3%	17.0%
Reform	2,598	5.3%	19.9%
OTH	1,076	2.2%	2.5%
LAB Majority	4,581	9.3%	0.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

41%

CON

35%

LIB

Green

Reform

14%

OTH

Folkestone and Hythe

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Tony Vaughan (LAB)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	70,056
Turnout:	61.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,020	34.7%	18.9%
CON	11,291	26.1%	16.8%
Reform	10,685	24.7%	36.2%
Green	3,954	9.1%	15.8%
LIB	1,736	4.0%	7.6%
OTH	560	1.3%	4.8%
LAB Majority	3,729	8.6%	17.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

10%

CON

Reform

78%

Green

LIB

OTH

Forest of Dean

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Matt Bishop (LAB)
County/Area:	Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate:	72,052
Turnout:	66.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,373	34.0%	17.4%
CON	16,095	33.5%	22.1%
Reform	8,194	17.0%	36.4%
Green	4,735	9.8%	13.8%
LIB	2,604	5.4%	7.0%
OTH	90	0.2%	3.2%
LAB Majority	278	0.6%	14.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

20%

Reform

74%

Green

LIB

OTH

Frome and East Somerset

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Anna Sabine (LIB)
County/Area:	Somerset (South West)
Electorate:	70,378
Turnout:	66.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	16,580	35.5%	36.6%
CON	11,165	23.9%	11.4%
Reform	6,441	13.8%	28.5%
LAB	6,416	13.7%	7.2%
Green	5,083	10.9%	12.0%
OTH	1,031	2.2%	4.2%
LIB Majority	5,415	11.6%	8.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

49%

CON

10%

Reform

29%

LAB

Green

10%

OTH

Fylde

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Andrew Snowden (CON)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	77,100
Turnout:	62.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,917	33.2%	31.3%
LAB	15,356	32.0%	17.7%
Reform	8,295	17.3%	31.7%
OTH	4,712	9.8%	4.7%
LIB	2,120	4.4%	6.5%
Green	1,560	3.3%	8.1%
CON Majority	561	1.2%	0.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

46%

LAB

12%

Reform

41%

OTH

LIB

Green

Gainsborough

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Sir Edward Leigh (CON)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	75,836
Turnout:	61.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,636	35.6%	40.4%
LAB	13,104	28.1%	8.6%
Reform	9,916	21.2%	37.7%
LIB	5,001	10.7%	5.7%
Green	1,832	3.9%	5.6%
OTH	196	0.4%	2.2%
CON Majority	3,532	7.6%	2.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

45%

LAB

Reform

54%

LIB

Green

OTH

Gateshead Central and Whickham

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Mark Ferguson (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	69,823
Turnout:	57.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,245	45.4%	28.6%
Reform	8,601	21.4%	32.3%
LIB	4,987	12.4%	9.5%
CON	4,628	11.5%	9.2%
Green	3,217	8.0%	16.8%
OTH	539	1.3%	3.6%
LAB Majority	9,644	24.0%	3.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

39%

Reform

50%

LIB

CON

Green

OTH

Gedling

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Michael Payne (LAB)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	77,006
Turnout:	63.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,278	47.8%	38.0%
CON	11,397	23.4%	12.0%
Reform	8,211	16.9%	31.8%
Green	3,122	6.4%	11.0%
LIB	2,473	5.1%	4.6%
OTH	241	0.5%	2.6%
LAB Majority	11,881	24.4%	6.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

53%

CON

Reform

30%

Green

LIB

OTH

Gillingham and Rainham

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Naushabah Khan (LAB)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	73,523
Turnout:	56.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,562	37.8%	18.9%
CON	11,590	28.2%	19.9%
Reform	8,792	21.4%	33.1%
Green	2,318	5.6%	14.8%
LIB	2,248	5.5%	9.8%
OTH	630	1.5%	3.5%
LAB Majority	3,972	9.7%	13.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

10%

CON

17%

Reform

69%

Green

LIB

OTH

Glastonbury and Somerton

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Sarah Joanne Dyke (LIB)
County/Area:	Somerset (South West)
Electorate:	72,982
Turnout:	65.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	20,364	42.7%	34.9%
CON	13,753	28.9%	20.4%
Reform	7,678	16.1%	26.2%
LAB	3,111	6.5%	5.9%
Green	2,736	5.7%	10.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	2.3%
LIB Majority	6,611	13.9%	8.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

74%

CON

Reform

18%

LAB

Green

OTH

Gloucester

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Alex McIntyre (LAB)
County/Area:	Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate:	79,475
Turnout:	57.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,472	36.1%	16.6%
CON	13,041	28.5%	20.7%
Reform	7,307	16.0%	28.1%
LIB	4,759	10.4%	13.1%
Green	2,307	5.0%	15.8%
MIN	974	2.1%	4.1%
OTH	832	1.8%	1.6%
LAB Majority	3,431	7.5%	7.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

24%

Reform

58%

LIB

Green

MIN

OTH

Godalming and Ash

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Jeremy Hunt (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	74,168
Turnout:	73.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,293	42.6%	35.3%
LIB	22,402	41.0%	35.1%
Reform	4,815	8.8%	18.6%
LAB	2,748	5.0%	3.7%
Green	1,243	2.3%	5.0%
OTH	195	0.4%	2.2%
CON Majority	891	1.6%	0.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

43%

LIB

46%

Reform

12%

LAB

Green

OTH

Goole and Pocklington

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	David Davis (CON)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	78,287
Turnout:	63.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,981	38.2%	41.3%
LAB	15,409	31.0%	9.7%
Reform	9,054	18.2%	36.1%
LIB	3,380	6.8%	4.7%
Green	2,451	4.9%	6.2%
OTH	467	0.9%	2.0%
CON Majority	3,572	7.2%	5.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

49%

LAB

Reform

48%

LIB

Green

OTH

Gorton and Denton

Prediction: Green gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Andrew Gwynne (LAB)
County/Area:	Central Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	78,125
Turnout:	46.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,555	50.8%	25.9%
Reform	5,142	14.1%	22.6%
Green	4,810	13.2%	30.3%
MIN	3,766	10.3%	9.5%
CON	2,888	7.9%	7.1%
LIB	1,399	3.8%	4.6%
LAB Majority	13,413	36.7%	4.3% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result. Andrew Gwynne has resigned and there will be a by-election in due course.

Chance of winning

LAB

29%

Reform

21%

Green

51%

MIN

CON

LIB

Gosport

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Caroline Dinenage (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	73,261
Turnout:	60.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,830	40.3%	41.7%
LAB	11,776	26.6%	7.5%
Reform	7,983	18.0%	36.7%
LIB	4,039	9.1%	5.3%
Green	1,948	4.4%	5.4%
OTH	701	1.6%	3.4%
CON Majority	6,054	13.7%	5.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

56%

LAB

Reform

43%

LIB

Green

OTH

Grantham and Bourne

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Gareth Davies (CON)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	73,280
Turnout:	62.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,770	36.4%	37.8%
LAB	12,274	26.6%	8.8%
Reform	9,393	20.4%	40.1%
OTH	3,091	6.7%	3.2%
Green	2,570	5.6%	6.2%
LIB	2,027	4.4%	4.0%
CON Majority	4,496	9.7%	2.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

36%

LAB

Reform

62%

OTH

Green

LIB

Gravesham

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Lauren Sullivan (LAB)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	73,088
Turnout:	59.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,623	38.5%	15.8%
CON	13,911	32.2%	31.4%
Reform	8,910	20.6%	35.3%
Green	2,254	5.2%	8.9%
LIB	1,534	3.5%	4.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.9%
LAB Majority	2,712	6.3%	3.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

38%

Reform

56%

Green

LIB

OTH

Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Melanie Onn (LAB)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	78,875
Turnout:	46.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,336	41.9%	22.3%
Reform	10,533	28.8%	38.9%
CON	8,269	22.6%	15.8%
Green	1,115	3.0%	12.8%
LIB	1,036	2.8%	6.6%
OTH	330	0.9%	3.6%
LAB Majority	4,803	13.1%	16.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

14%

Reform

81%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Great Yarmouth

Prediction: Reform hold

MP at 2024:	Rupert Lowe (Reform)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	73,317
Turnout:	55.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
Reform	14,385	35.3%	40.5%
LAB	12,959	31.8%	17.2%
CON	10,034	24.6%	18.2%
Green	1,736	4.3%	9.8%
LIB	1,102	2.7%	6.9%
OTH	532	1.3%	7.4%
Reform Majority	1,426	3.5%	22.3% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result. Rupert Lowe is now Independent since being suspended after accusations of bad behaviour.

Chance of winning

Reform

87%

LAB

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Greenwich and Woolwich

Prediction: Green gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Matthew Pennycook (LAB)
County/Area:	Greenwich (London)
Electorate:	73,573
Turnout:	58.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,999	56.2%	29.6%
Green	5,633	13.2%	30.8%
CON	4,863	11.4%	9.7%
LIB	3,865	9.0%	7.2%
Reform	3,305	7.7%	17.4%
MIN	570	1.3%	4.0%
OTH	484	1.1%	1.3%
LAB Majority	18,366	43.0%	1.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

44%

Green

51%

CON

LIB

Reform

MIN

OTH

Guildford

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Z�e Franklin (LIB)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	70,734
Turnout:	68.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	22,937	47.5%	36.8%
CON	14,508	30.0%	21.8%
Reform	4,395	9.1%	18.4%
LAB	3,931	8.1%	7.2%
Green	2,268	4.7%	14.0%
OTH	255	0.5%	1.9%
LIB Majority	8,429	17.5%	14.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

87%

CON

Reform

LAB

Green

OTH

Hackney North and Stoke Newington

Prediction: Green gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Diane Abbott (LAB)
County/Area:	Hackney (London)
Electorate:	77,797
Turnout:	52.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,355	59.5%	29.9%
Green	9,275	22.6%	41.4%
CON	3,457	8.4%	6.4%
LIB	1,562	3.8%	5.6%
Reform	1,283	3.1%	14.0%
OTH	1,027	2.5%	2.7%
LAB Majority	15,080	36.8%	11.5% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result. Diane Abbott is now Independent since whip was suspended after a BBC interview.

Chance of winning

LAB

20%

Green

79%

CON

LIB

Reform

OTH

Hackney South and Shoreditch

Prediction: Green gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Meg Hillier (LAB)
County/Area:	Hackney (London)
Electorate:	78,262
Turnout:	53.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,724	59.3%	28.9%
Green	9,987	23.9%	44.0%
CON	2,076	5.0%	5.3%
LIB	1,996	4.8%	4.5%
Reform	1,601	3.8%	12.1%
MIN	1,007	2.4%	4.7%
OTH	310	0.7%	0.6%
LAB Majority	14,737	35.3%	15.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

16%

Green

84%

CON

LIB

Reform

MIN

OTH

Halesowen

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Alex Ballinger (LAB)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	68,549
Turnout:	56.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,023	38.9%	18.6%
CON	10,659	27.6%	19.6%
Reform	8,484	22.0%	33.7%
LIB	2,261	5.9%	10.6%
Green	2,151	5.6%	14.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	2.7%
LAB Majority	4,364	11.3%	14.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

10%

CON

14%

Reform

72%

LIB

Green

OTH

Halifax

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Kate Alexandra Dearden (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	77,516
Turnout:	51.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	14,135	35.1%	20.1%
CON	7,866	19.6%	12.8%
Reform	7,811	19.4%	30.3%
Green	4,133	10.3%	20.8%
MIN	2,543	6.3%	7.6%
LIB	2,359	5.9%	6.6%
OTH	1,367	3.4%	1.7%
LAB Majority	6,269	15.6%	9.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

17%

CON

Reform

62%

Green

18%

MIN

LIB

OTH

Hamble Valley

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Paul Holmes (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	80,537
Turnout:	67.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,671	36.4%	30.4%
LIB	14,869	27.5%	20.1%
LAB	8,753	16.2%	9.7%
Reform	8,216	15.2%	28.7%
Green	2,310	4.3%	8.4%
OTH	185	0.3%	2.7%
CON Majority	4,802	8.9%	1.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

46%

LIB

16%

LAB

Reform

37%

Green

OTH

Hammersmith and Chiswick

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Andy Slaughter (LAB)
County/Area:	Hammersmith and Fulham (London)
Electorate:	75,860
Turnout:	60.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,073	52.3%	30.1%
CON	8,783	19.1%	13.5%
Green	4,468	9.7%	26.5%
LIB	4,292	9.3%	8.9%
Reform	2,929	6.4%	16.2%
OTH	1,037	2.3%	2.2%
MIN	439	1.0%	2.5%
LAB Majority	15,290	33.2%	3.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

56%

CON

Green

36%

LIB

Reform

OTH

MIN

Hampshire East

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Damian Hinds (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	71,965
Turnout:	69.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,509	36.9%	27.2%
LIB	17,234	34.4%	26.1%
Reform	6,476	12.9%	26.8%
LAB	4,967	9.9%	8.3%
Green	2,404	4.8%	8.7%
OTH	516	1.0%	2.8%
CON Majority	1,275	2.5%	0.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

35%

LIB

32%

Reform

32%

LAB

Green

OTH

Hampshire North East

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Alex Brewer (LIB)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	76,975
Turnout:	72.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	21,178	38.1%	28.5%
CON	20,544	37.0%	27.1%
Reform	6,673	12.0%	26.9%
LAB	5,057	9.1%	7.7%
Green	1,425	2.6%	7.5%
OTH	683	1.2%	2.3%
LIB Majority	634	1.1%	1.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

39%

CON

30%

Reform

31%

LAB

Green

OTH

Hampshire North West

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Kit Malthouse (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	78,629
Turnout:	64.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,770	35.0%	42.2%
LAB	14,482	28.5%	8.9%
Reform	7,734	15.2%	31.7%
LIB	7,626	15.0%	7.3%
Green	2,745	5.4%	6.8%
OTH	466	0.9%	3.1%
CON Majority	3,288	6.5%	10.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

52%

LAB

Reform

40%

LIB

Green

OTH

Hampstead and Highgate

Prediction: Green gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Tulip Siddiq (LAB)
County/Area:	Camden (London)
Electorate:	80,029
Turnout:	60.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,432	48.3%	27.2%
CON	8,462	17.4%	12.9%
Green	6,630	13.7%	30.0%
LIB	6,181	12.7%	11.4%
Reform	2,940	6.1%	15.6%
OTH	905	1.9%	2.9%
LAB Majority	14,970	30.8%	2.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

36%

CON

Green

57%

LIB

Reform

OTH

Harborough, Oadby and Wigston

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Neil O'Brien (CON)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	77,407
Turnout:	65.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,614	36.9%	32.1%
LAB	16,236	32.2%	16.6%
Reform	6,332	12.6%	24.2%
LIB	4,732	9.4%	10.7%
Green	4,269	8.5%	14.4%
OTH	203	0.4%	2.0%
CON Majority	2,378	4.7%	7.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

65%

LAB

Reform

22%

LIB

Green

OTH

Harlow

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Christopher John Vince (LAB)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	74,683
Turnout:	58.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,313	37.6%	16.8%
CON	13,809	31.8%	28.5%
Reform	9,461	21.8%	35.6%
Green	2,267	5.2%	9.7%
LIB	1,350	3.1%	5.4%
OTH	157	0.4%	3.9%
LAB Majority	2,504	5.8%	7.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

34%

Reform

60%

Green

LIB

OTH

Harpenden and Berkhamsted

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Victoria Collins (LIB)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	72,242
Turnout:	75.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	27,282	50.2%	45.2%
CON	16,574	30.5%	25.6%
Reform	4,245	7.8%	14.2%
LAB	4,061	7.5%	5.0%
Green	1,951	3.6%	8.3%
OTH	223	0.4%	1.7%
LIB Majority	10,708	19.7%	19.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

93%

CON

Reform

LAB

Green

OTH

Harrogate and Knaresborough

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Tom Gordon (LIB)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	77,970
Turnout:	66.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	23,976	46.1%	36.6%
CON	15,738	30.2%	21.4%
Reform	5,679	10.9%	19.9%
LAB	4,153	8.0%	8.2%
Green	1,762	3.4%	12.3%
OTH	756	1.5%	1.7%
LIB Majority	8,238	15.8%	15.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

84%

CON

Reform

LAB

Green

OTH

Harrow East

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Bob Blackman (CON)
County/Area:	Harrow (London)
Electorate:	76,386
Turnout:	62.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,466	53.3%	41.2%
LAB	13,786	28.9%	17.1%
Reform	2,188	4.6%	16.5%
OTH	2,097	4.4%	2.8%
Green	2,006	4.2%	11.4%
LIB	1,511	3.2%	8.4%
MIN	723	1.5%	2.6%
CON Majority	11,680	24.4%	24.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

94%

LAB

Reform

OTH

Green

LIB

MIN

Harrow West

Prediction: CON gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Gareth Thomas (LAB)
County/Area:	Harrow (London)
Electorate:	79,902
Turnout:	56.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,833	43.8%	22.8%
CON	13,191	29.2%	23.3%
OTH	4,736	10.5%	3.6%
Reform	2,639	5.8%	18.7%
Green	2,438	5.4%	21.9%
LIB	2,404	5.3%	9.8%
LAB Majority	6,642	14.7%	0.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

29%

CON

31%

OTH

Reform

11%

Green

27%

LIB

Hartlepool

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jonathan Brash (LAB)
County/Area:	Teesside (North East)
Electorate:	71,437
Turnout:	49.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,414	46.2%	32.0%
Reform	8,716	24.5%	41.6%
CON	7,767	21.9%	10.4%
OTH	960	2.7%	3.1%
Green	834	2.3%	7.8%
LIB	572	1.6%	3.3%
MIN	248	0.7%	1.8%
LAB Majority	7,698	21.7%	9.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

24%

Reform

72%

CON

OTH

Green

LIB

MIN

Harwich and North Essex

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Bernard Jenkin (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	76,579
Turnout:	62.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,522	34.4%	40.7%
LAB	15,360	32.0%	9.6%
Reform	9,806	20.4%	36.0%
LIB	3,561	7.4%	4.1%
Green	2,794	5.8%	6.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.2%
CON Majority	1,162	2.4%	4.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

50%

LAB

Reform

47%

LIB

Green

OTH

Hastings and Rye

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Helena Dollimore (LAB)
County/Area:	East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	75,939
Turnout:	60.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,134	41.6%	21.6%
CON	10,481	22.8%	14.6%
Reform	7,401	16.1%	27.3%
Green	5,761	12.5%	21.4%
LIB	2,586	5.6%	7.9%
MIN	362	0.8%	5.3%
OTH	265	0.6%	1.8%
LAB Majority	8,653	18.8%	5.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

22%

CON

Reform

52%

Green

20%

LIB

MIN

OTH

Havant

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Alan Mak (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	72,346
Turnout:	58.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	12,986	30.8%	29.2%
LAB	12,894	30.6%	10.9%
Reform	9,959	23.6%	38.8%
LIB	3,275	7.8%	4.9%
Green	2,861	6.8%	8.2%
MIN	211	0.5%	8.0%
CON Majority	92	0.2%	9.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

19%

LAB

Reform

80%

LIB

Green

MIN

Hayes and Harlington

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	John McDonnell (LAB)
County/Area:	Hillingdon (London)
Electorate:	74,405
Turnout:	51.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,405	53.3%	25.7%
CON	8,374	21.9%	18.9%
Reform	4,114	10.7%	17.5%
Green	2,131	5.6%	21.0%
MIN	1,975	5.2%	11.2%
LIB	1,316	3.4%	5.7%
LAB Majority	12,031	31.4%	4.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

49%

CON

13%

Reform

14%

Green

22%

MIN

LIB

Hazel Grove

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Lisa Smart (LIB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	72,843
Turnout:	63.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	17,328	37.7%	31.7%
LAB	10,828	23.5%	14.3%
CON	9,011	19.6%	14.8%
Reform	6,955	15.1%	23.8%
Green	1,763	3.8%	13.0%
OTH	113	0.2%	2.4%
LIB Majority	6,500	14.1%	8.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

61%

LAB

CON

Reform

19%

Green

OTH

Hemel Hempstead

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	David Taylor (LAB)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	71,038
Turnout:	62.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,844	38.2%	18.6%
CON	11,987	27.2%	20.5%
Reform	7,689	17.4%	27.4%
LIB	5,096	11.6%	14.8%
Green	2,492	5.6%	16.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	2.6%
LAB Majority	4,857	11.0%	6.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

14%

CON

22%

Reform

53%

LIB

Green

OTH

Hendon

Prediction: CON gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	David Pinto-Duschinsky (LAB)
County/Area:	Barnet (London)
Electorate:	74,865
Turnout:	55.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,855	38.4%	19.9%
CON	15,840	38.4%	27.7%
Reform	3,038	7.4%	21.0%
Green	2,667	6.5%	16.7%
LIB	1,966	4.8%	7.4%
MIN	1,518	3.7%	6.6%
OTH	372	0.9%	0.6%
LAB Majority	15	0.0%	6.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

16%

CON

55%

Reform

21%

Green

LIB

MIN

OTH

Henley and Thame

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Freddie Van Mierlo (LIB)
County/Area:	Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate:	73,749
Turnout:	72.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	23,904	45.0%	28.6%
CON	17,637	33.2%	26.7%
Reform	5,213	9.8%	24.3%
LAB	3,574	6.7%	7.0%
Green	2,008	3.8%	10.4%
OTH	821	1.5%	3.0%
LIB Majority	6,267	11.8%	2.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

46%

CON

32%

Reform

21%

LAB

Green

OTH

Hereford and South Herefordshire

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Jesse Norman (CON)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	72,203
Turnout:	63.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	14,871	32.6%	39.5%
LAB	13,592	29.8%	8.6%
Reform	8,395	18.4%	37.3%
LIB	5,325	11.7%	5.3%
Green	3,175	7.0%	6.6%
OTH	214	0.5%	2.7%
CON Majority	1,279	2.8%	2.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

43%

LAB

Reform

55%

LIB

Green

OTH

Herefordshire North

Prediction: Reform gain from Green

MP at 2024:	Ellie Chowns (Green)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	72,797
Turnout:	69.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
Green	21,736	43.2%	28.0%
CON	15,842	31.5%	23.0%
Reform	8,048	16.0%	32.9%
LAB	3,205	6.4%	6.9%
LIB	1,436	2.9%	6.2%
OTH	95	0.2%	3.0%
Green Majority	5,894	11.7%	4.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

Green

32%

CON

13%

Reform

55%

LAB

LIB

OTH

Herne Bay and Sandwich

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Roger Gale (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	77,841
Turnout:	62.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,243	35.3%	30.9%
LAB	14,744	30.2%	12.3%
Reform	10,602	21.7%	39.9%
Green	3,529	7.2%	7.6%
LIB	2,709	5.5%	6.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.1%
CON Majority	2,499	5.1%	9.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

26%

LAB

Reform

72%

Green

LIB

OTH

Hertford and Stortford

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Josh Dean (LAB)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	78,915
Turnout:	68.4%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,808	38.5%	19.4%
CON	16,060	29.7%	19.0%
Reform	8,325	15.4%	27.3%
Green	4,373	8.1%	20.1%
LIB	4,167	7.7%	11.8%
OTH	276	0.5%	2.5%
LAB Majority	4,748	8.8%	7.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

15%

CON

14%

Reform

53%

Green

16%

LIB

OTH

Hertfordshire North East

Prediction: CON gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Chris Hinchliff (LAB)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	77,090
Turnout:	68.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,358	35.0%	16.6%
CON	16,435	31.3%	30.5%
Reform	8,462	16.1%	30.1%
LIB	5,463	10.4%	8.5%
Green	3,802	7.2%	11.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.0%
LAB Majority	1,923	3.7%	0.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

45%

Reform

45%

LIB

Green

OTH

Hertfordshire South West

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Gagan Mohindra (CON)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	71,353
Turnout:	67.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,458	34.1%	34.3%
LIB	12,002	24.9%	15.7%
LAB	9,637	20.0%	11.3%
Reform	6,790	14.1%	25.2%
Green	2,532	5.2%	10.0%
OTH	835	1.7%	3.5%
CON Majority	4,456	9.2%	9.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

71%

LIB

LAB

Reform

18%

Green

OTH

Hertsmere

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Oliver Dowden (CON)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	73,518
Turnout:	65.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,451	44.7%	45.7%
LAB	13,459	28.0%	8.8%
Reform	6,584	13.7%	31.2%
LIB	3,710	7.7%	5.1%
Green	2,267	4.7%	6.1%
OTH	536	1.1%	3.2%
CON Majority	7,992	16.6%	14.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

77%

LAB

Reform

21%

LIB

Green

OTH

Hexham

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Joe Morris (LAB)
County/Area:	Northumberland (North East)
Electorate:	76,431
Turnout:	67.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,988	46.3%	28.2%
CON	20,275	39.1%	26.5%
OTH	2,722	5.3%	2.5%
Green	2,467	4.8%	12.5%
LIB	2,376	4.6%	9.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	21.2%
LAB Majority	3,713	7.2%	1.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

47%

CON

35%

OTH

Green

LIB

Reform

16%

Heywood and Middleton North

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Elsie Jane Blundell (LAB)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	74,786
Turnout:	49.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,069	40.6%	36.7%
Reform	8,987	24.2%	42.3%
CON	6,423	17.3%	5.5%
OTH	4,349	11.7%	8.2%
LIB	2,302	6.2%	2.4%
Green	0	0.0%	5.0%
LAB Majority	6,082	16.4%	5.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

27%

Reform

68%

CON

OTH

LIB

Green

High Peak

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jonathan Brian Pearce (LAB)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	74,385
Turnout:	66.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,533	45.8%	29.0%
CON	14,625	29.7%	17.1%
Reform	6,959	14.1%	29.3%
Green	3,382	6.9%	15.6%
LIB	1,707	3.5%	7.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.7%
LAB Majority	7,908	16.1%	0.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

39%

CON

10%

Reform

43%

Green

LIB

OTH

Hinckley and Bosworth

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Luke Evans (CON)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	76,431
Turnout:	62.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,032	35.6%	35.6%
LIB	11,624	24.3%	13.8%
Reform	8,817	18.4%	32.7%
LAB	8,601	18.0%	8.4%
Green	1,514	3.2%	7.3%
OTH	211	0.4%	2.1%
CON Majority	5,408	11.3%	2.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

49%

LIB

Reform

45%

LAB

Green

OTH

Hitchin

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Alistair Strathern (LAB)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	75,080
Turnout:	69.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,067	43.9%	23.2%
CON	14,958	28.5%	21.0%
Reform	6,760	12.9%	23.6%
LIB	4,913	9.4%	13.6%
Green	2,631	5.0%	16.4%
OTH	181	0.3%	2.2%
LAB Majority	8,109	15.4%	0.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

33%

CON

23%

Reform

33%

LIB

Green

OTH

Holborn and St Pancras

Prediction: Green gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Keir Starmer (LAB)
County/Area:	Camden (London)
Electorate:	71,300
Turnout:	54.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,884	48.9%	26.5%
MIN	7,312	18.9%	13.8%
Green	4,030	10.4%	33.4%
CON	2,776	7.2%	6.6%
Reform	2,371	6.1%	13.7%
LIB	2,236	5.8%	5.3%
OTH	993	2.6%	0.7%
LAB Majority	11,572	30.0%	6.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

31%

MIN

Green

67%

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

Honiton and Sidmouth

Prediction: Reform gain from LIB

MP at 2024:	Richard Foord (LIB)
County/Area:	Devon (South West)
Electorate:	75,537
Turnout:	67.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	23,007	45.4%	27.9%
CON	16,307	32.2%	25.9%
Reform	6,289	12.4%	29.6%
LAB	2,947	5.8%	6.6%
Green	1,394	2.8%	6.9%
OTH	711	1.4%	3.0%
LIB Majority	6,700	13.2%	1.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

35%

CON

25%

Reform

39%

LAB

Green

OTH

Hornchurch and Upminster

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Julia Lopez (CON)
County/Area:	Havering (London)
Electorate:	75,438
Turnout:	62.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	15,260	32.5%	36.4%
Reform	13,317	28.4%	46.0%
LAB	12,939	27.6%	7.0%
Green	2,620	5.6%	5.2%
LIB	2,381	5.1%	3.0%
OTH	394	0.8%	2.3%
CON Majority	1,943	4.1%	9.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

24%

Reform

75%

LAB

Green

LIB

OTH

Hornsey and Friern Barnet

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Catherine West (LAB)
County/Area:	Haringey (London)
Electorate:	69,885
Turnout:	69.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	28,535	58.7%	34.1%
Green	7,060	14.5%	32.7%
LIB	6,099	12.5%	10.0%
CON	4,011	8.2%	7.0%
Reform	1,989	4.1%	11.3%
MIN	766	1.6%	4.4%
OTH	182	0.4%	0.4%
LAB Majority	21,475	44.1%	1.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

55%

Green

45%

LIB

CON

Reform

MIN

OTH

Horsham

Prediction: CON gain from LIB

MP at 2024:	John Milne (LIB)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	79,150
Turnout:	70.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	21,632	39.0%	26.3%
CON	19,115	34.4%	30.7%
Reform	6,116	11.0%	22.5%
LAB	5,979	10.8%	8.2%
Green	2,137	3.9%	9.4%
OTH	520	0.9%	2.9%
LIB Majority	2,517	4.5%	4.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

35%

CON

50%

Reform

15%

LAB

Green

OTH

Houghton and Sunderland South

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Bridget Phillipson (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	78,448
Turnout:	51.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,837	47.1%	40.2%
Reform	11,668	29.1%	46.0%
CON	5,514	13.8%	3.9%
LIB	2,290	5.7%	1.9%
Green	1,723	4.3%	4.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.8%
LAB Majority	7,169	17.9%	5.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

29%

Reform

70%

CON

LIB

Green

OTH

Hove and Portslade

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Peter Kyle (LAB)
County/Area:	East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	74,063
Turnout:	70.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	27,209	52.4%	29.5%
Green	7,418	14.3%	27.8%
CON	6,630	12.8%	9.3%
Reform	4,558	8.8%	21.5%
OTH	3,048	5.9%	4.4%
LIB	3,046	5.9%	7.4%
LAB Majority	19,791	38.1%	1.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

47%

Green

38%

CON

Reform

13%

OTH

LIB

Huddersfield

Prediction: Green gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Harpreet Uppal (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	77,795
Turnout:	51.6%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,101	37.6%	20.8%
Green	10,568	26.3%	34.0%
CON	6,559	16.3%	11.2%
Reform	6,196	15.4%	24.7%
LIB	1,741	4.3%	6.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	2.9%
LAB Majority	4,533	11.3%	9.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

Green

76%

CON

Reform

16%

LIB

OTH

Hull East

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Karl Turner (LAB)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	70,650
Turnout:	42.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	13,047	43.8%	19.4%
Reform	9,127	30.6%	41.9%
LIB	3,252	10.9%	8.9%
CON	2,715	9.1%	9.0%
Green	1,675	5.6%	17.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	3.7%
LAB Majority	3,920	13.1%	22.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

10%

Reform

85%

LIB

CON

Green

OTH

Hull North and Cottingham

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Diana Johnson (LAB)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	75,280
Turnout:	50.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,480	48.3%	24.0%
Reform	7,801	20.4%	31.9%
CON	4,897	12.8%	10.9%
LIB	3,246	8.5%	8.7%
Green	2,322	6.1%	20.9%
OTH	1,482	3.9%	3.7%
LAB Majority	10,679	27.9%	7.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

30%

Reform

54%

CON

LIB

Green

15%

OTH

Hull West and Haltemprice

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Emma Hardy (LAB)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	73,252
Turnout:	52.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,875	46.8%	30.8%
Reform	8,896	23.3%	37.4%
CON	6,924	18.1%	10.7%
LIB	2,625	6.9%	6.0%
Green	1,748	4.6%	11.8%
OTH	110	0.3%	3.4%
LAB Majority	8,979	23.5%	6.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

29%

Reform

63%

CON

LIB

Green

OTH

Huntingdon

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Benjamin Obese-Jecty (CON)
County/Area:	Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	79,074
Turnout:	65.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,257	35.1%	39.5%
LAB	16,758	32.2%	10.5%
Reform	8,039	15.4%	33.5%
LIB	4,821	9.3%	6.3%
Green	3,042	5.8%	7.4%
OTH	1,123	2.2%	2.9%
CON Majority	1,499	2.9%	6.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

51%

LAB

Reform

44%

LIB

Green

OTH

Hyndburn

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Sarah Smith (LAB)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	76,126
Turnout:	47.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	12,186	33.5%	17.6%
CON	10,499	28.9%	18.3%
Reform	7,541	20.7%	33.4%
Green	4,938	13.6%	20.9%
LIB	1,210	3.3%	7.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	2.5%
LAB Majority	1,687	4.6%	12.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

Reform

70%

Green

14%

LIB

OTH

Ilford North

Prediction: MIN gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Wes Streeting (LAB)
County/Area:	Redbridge (London)
Electorate:	77,835
Turnout:	60.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,647	33.4%	19.3%
MIN	15,119	32.2%	24.4%
CON	9,619	20.5%	18.6%
Reform	3,621	7.7%	13.0%
Green	1,794	3.8%	19.5%
LIB	1,088	2.3%	5.2%
LAB Majority	528	1.1%	4.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

21%

MIN

33%

CON

16%

Reform

Green

22%

LIB

Ilford South

Prediction: Green gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jas Athwal (LAB)
County/Area:	Redbridge (London)
Electorate:	80,993
Turnout:	50.8%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,537	40.2%	22.0%
MIN	9,643	23.4%	0.0%
CON	6,142	14.9%	12.5%
Green	3,437	8.3%	26.8%
Reform	2,329	5.7%	17.0%
OTH	1,742	4.2%	16.1%
LIB	1,340	3.3%	5.8%
LAB Majority	6,894	16.7%	4.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

26%

MIN

CON

Green

52%

Reform

OTH

11%

LIB

Ipswich

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Jack Simon Abbott (LAB)
County/Area:	Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	76,319
Turnout:	57.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,099	43.3%	20.2%
CON	11,696	26.5%	17.9%
Reform	7,027	15.9%	31.9%
Green	3,652	8.3%	18.5%
LIB	2,241	5.1%	8.8%
OTH	356	0.8%	2.6%
LAB Majority	7,403	16.8%	11.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

15%

CON

Reform

66%

Green

LIB

OTH

Isle of Wight East

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Joe Robertson (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	55,855
Turnout:	61.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	10,427	30.6%	35.5%
Reform	7,104	20.8%	39.6%
Green	6,313	18.5%	9.2%
LAB	6,264	18.4%	6.8%
LIB	3,550	10.4%	5.1%
OTH	420	1.2%	3.8%
CON Majority	3,323	9.8%	4.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

29%

Reform

69%

Green

LAB

LIB

OTH

Isle of Wight West

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Richard Quigley (LAB)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	55,406
Turnout:	61.9%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	13,240	38.6%	18.4%
CON	10,063	29.3%	18.8%
Reform	5,834	17.0%	34.0%
LIB	2,726	7.9%	12.1%
Green	2,310	6.7%	14.3%
OTH	117	0.3%	2.5%
LAB Majority	3,177	9.3%	15.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

CON

11%

Reform

76%

LIB

Green

OTH

Islington North

Prediction: Green gain from MIN

MP at 2024:	Jeremy Corbyn (MIN)
County/Area:	Islington (London)
Electorate:	72,582
Turnout:	67.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
MIN	24,120	49.2%	0.0%
LAB	16,873	34.4%	22.1%
Green	2,660	5.4%	31.6%
CON	1,950	4.0%	4.5%
Reform	1,710	3.5%	14.5%
LIB	1,661	3.4%	5.2%
OTH	32	0.1%	22.0%
MIN Majority	7,247	14.8%	9.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

MIN

LAB

17%

Green

62%

CON

Reform

LIB

OTH

18%

Islington South and Finsbury

Prediction: Green gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Emily Thornberry (LAB)
County/Area:	Islington (London)
Electorate:	74,122
Turnout:	57.7%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	22,946	53.7%	29.2%
Green	7,491	17.5%	35.7%
LIB	4,045	9.5%	7.8%
CON	3,584	8.4%	7.1%
Reform	3,388	7.9%	17.5%
OTH	1,300	3.0%	2.8%
LAB Majority	15,455	36.1%	6.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

29%

Green

67%

LIB

CON

Reform

OTH

Jarrow and Gateshead East

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Kate Osborne (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	70,272
Turnout:	52.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,856	51.3%	42.5%
Reform	9,892	26.9%	44.3%
CON	3,354	9.1%	3.0%
Green	2,384	6.5%	4.7%
LIB	1,740	4.7%	1.8%
OTH	502	1.4%	3.7%
LAB Majority	8,964	24.4%	1.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

38%

Reform

61%

CON

Green

LIB

OTH

Keighley and Ilkley

Prediction: Reform gain from CON

MP at 2024:	Robbie Moore (CON)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	74,367
Turnout:	62.1%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,589	40.3%	24.1%
LAB	16,964	36.7%	21.3%
Reform	4,782	10.4%	30.1%
Green	2,447	5.3%	15.5%
OTH	2,425	5.3%	2.7%
LIB	970	2.1%	6.3%
CON Majority	1,625	3.5%	6.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

29%

LAB

16%

Reform

51%

Green

OTH

LIB

Kenilworth and Southam

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Jeremy Wright (CON)
County/Area:	Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	74,923
Turnout:	71.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,395	36.4%	38.7%
LAB	12,821	24.0%	9.9%
LIB	10,464	19.6%	11.3%
Reform	6,920	13.0%	29.7%
Green	3,125	5.9%	8.2%
OTH	595	1.1%	2.2%
CON Majority	6,574	12.3%	9.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

52%

LAB

LIB

Reform

38%

Green

OTH

Kensington and Bayswater

Prediction: CON gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Joe Powell (LAB)
County/Area:	Kensington and Chelsea (London)
Electorate:	77,306
Turnout:	54.2%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,025	40.6%	23.2%
CON	14,122	33.7%	26.5%
LIB	2,910	6.9%	7.6%
Green	2,732	6.5%	18.7%
Reform	2,514	6.0%	16.5%
MIN	1,824	4.4%	6.4%
OTH	781	1.9%	1.0%
LAB Majority	2,903	6.9%	3.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

31%

CON

46%

LIB

Green

13%

Reform

MIN

OTH

Kettering

Prediction: Reform gain from LAB

MP at 2024:	Rosie Wrighting (LAB)
County/Area:	Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	79,390
Turnout:	63.3%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,009	35.9%	17.7%
CON	14,189	28.2%	15.1%
Reform	8,468	16.9%	31.3%
Green	7,004	13.9%	26.5%
LIB	1,357	2.7%	7.2%
OTH	1,204	2.4%	2.2%
LAB Majority	3,820	7.6%	4.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

10%

CON

Reform

55%

Green

31%

LIB

OTH

Kingston and Surbiton

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2024:	Ed Davey (LIB)
County/Area:	Kingston upon Thames (London)
Electorate:	77,340
Turnout:	65.5%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	25,870	51.1%	34.2%
CON	8,635	17.0%	15.0%
LAB	6,561	13.0%	10.9%
Reform	4,787	9.4%	17.1%
Green	3,009	5.9%	18.4%
OTH	1,407	2.8%	2.5%
MIN	395	0.8%	1.8%
LIB Majority	17,235	34.0%	15.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

80%

CON

LAB

Reform

Green

10%

OTH

MIN

Kingswinford and South Staffordshire

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2024:	Mike Wood (CON)
County/Area:	Staffordshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	71,662
Turnout:	63.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,199	40.3%	40.1%
LAB	11,896	26.3%	8.3%
Reform	9,928	22.0%	39.4%
LIB	2,080	4.6%	4.3%
Green	2,077	4.6%	4.7%
OTH	1,000	2.2%	3.2%
CON Majority	6,303	14.0%	0.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

47%

LAB

Reform

52%

LIB

Green

OTH

Knowsley

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2024:	Anneliese Midgley (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	72,087
Turnout:	50.0%

Party	2024 Votes	2024 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,243	67.3%	43.8%
Reform	5,924	16.4%	32.7%
Green	2,772	7.7%	12.1%
CON	1,496	4.2%	3.2%
LIB	1,232	3.4%	2.6%
MIN	245	0.7%	4.5%
OTH	135	0.4%	1.1%
LAB Majority	18,319	50.8%	11.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

64%

Reform

29%

Green

CON

LIB

MIN

OTH