Constituency List: England F-K

Fareham

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Suella Braverman (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	78,337
Turnout:	73.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	36,459	63.7%	36.7%
LAB	10,373	18.1%	30.2%
LIB	8,006	14.0%	14.5%
Green	2,412	4.2%	5.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	26,086	45.6%	6.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

64%

LAB

34%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Faversham and Kent Mid

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Helen Whately (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	73,403
Turnout:	68.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,864	63.2%	35.1%
LAB	9,888	19.6%	32.0%
LIB	6,170	12.2%	11.3%
Green	2,103	4.2%	6.9%
OTH	369	0.7%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.3%
CON Majority	21,976	43.6%	3.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

59%

LAB

40%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Feltham and Heston

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Seema Malhotra (LAB)
County/Area:	Hounslow (London)
Electorate:	80,934
Turnout:	59.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,876	52.0%	64.0%
CON	17,017	35.6%	17.7%
LIB	3,127	6.5%	2.9%
Reform	1,658	3.5%	10.8%
Green	1,133	2.4%	4.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	7,859	16.4%	46.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Filton and Bradley Stoke

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Jack Lopresti (CON)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	74,016
Turnout:	72.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,293	48.9%	25.8%
LAB	20,647	38.4%	47.5%
LIB	4,992	9.3%	8.8%
Green	1,563	2.9%	5.7%
OTH	257	0.5%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	11.8%
CON Majority	5,646	10.5%	21.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

92%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Finchley and Golders Green

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Mike Freer (CON)
County/Area:	Barnet (London)
Electorate:	77,573
Turnout:	71.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,162	43.8%	26.1%
LIB	17,600	31.9%	12.5%
LAB	13,347	24.2%	43.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	11.4%
Green	0	0.0%	6.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	6,562	11.9%	17.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

10%

LIB

LAB

89%

Reform

Green

OTH

Folkestone and Hythe

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Damian Collins (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	88,272
Turnout:	66.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,483	60.1%	33.3%
LAB	14,146	24.0%	32.0%
LIB	5,755	9.8%	9.3%
Green	2,706	4.6%	9.1%
OTH	915	1.6%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	15.8%
CON Majority	21,337	36.2%	1.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

53%

LAB

44%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Forest of Dean

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Mark Harper (CON)
County/Area:	Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate:	71,438
Turnout:	72.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,680	59.6%	28.1%
LAB	14,811	28.8%	34.9%
Green	4,681	9.1%	12.3%
OTH	1,303	2.5%	0.6%
LIB	0	0.0%	6.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	17.3%
CON Majority	15,869	30.8%	6.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

30%

LAB

65%

Green

OTH

LIB

Reform

Fylde

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Mark Menzies (CON)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	66,847
Turnout:	69.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,432	60.9%	32.5%
LAB	11,821	25.3%	38.6%
LIB	3,748	8.0%	6.3%
Green	1,731	3.7%	5.5%
OTH	927	2.0%	0.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	16.4%
CON Majority	16,611	35.6%	6.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

32%

LAB

66%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Gainsborough

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Edward Leigh (CON)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	76,343
Turnout:	66.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,893	66.4%	32.2%
LAB	10,926	21.4%	35.2%
LIB	5,157	10.1%	11.6%
OTH	1,070	2.1%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	16.5%
Green	0	0.0%	4.1%
CON Majority	22,967	45.0%	3.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

41%

LAB

57%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Garston and Halewood

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Maria Eagle (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	76,116
Turnout:	70.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	38,578	72.3%	70.6%
CON	6,954	13.0%	5.9%
LIB	3,324	6.2%	5.2%
Reform	2,943	5.5%	12.5%
Green	1,183	2.2%	5.3%
OTH	344	0.6%	0.6%
LAB Majority	31,624	59.3%	58.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Gateshead

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Ian Mearns (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	64,449
Turnout:	59.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,450	53.6%	62.8%
CON	13,250	34.7%	12.4%
LIB	2,792	7.3%	5.2%
Green	1,653	4.3%	6.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.8%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	7,200	18.9%	50.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Gedling

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Tom Randall (CON)
County/Area:	Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	71,366
Turnout:	70.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,718	45.5%	21.0%
LAB	22,039	44.1%	55.9%
LIB	2,279	4.6%	3.6%
Reform	1,820	3.6%	13.1%
Green	1,097	2.2%	5.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	679	1.4%	35.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

98%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Gillingham and Rainham

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Rehman Chishti (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	73,549
Turnout:	62.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,173	61.3%	34.6%
LAB	13,054	28.4%	42.6%
LIB	2,503	5.4%	5.3%
OTH	1,185	2.6%	0.5%
Green	1,043	2.3%	5.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.0%
CON Majority	15,119	32.9%	8.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

30%

LAB

70%

LIB

OTH

Green

Reform

Gloucester

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Richard Graham (CON)
County/Area:	Gloucestershire (South West)
Electorate:	80,901
Turnout:	66.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,159	54.2%	26.6%
LAB	18,882	35.1%	46.2%
LIB	4,338	8.1%	9.0%
Green	1,385	2.6%	4.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	10,277	19.1%	19.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

90%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Gosport

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Caroline Dinenage (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	73,541
Turnout:	65.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,226	66.5%	35.9%
LAB	8,948	18.5%	32.4%
LIB	5,473	11.3%	12.5%
Green	1,806	3.7%	5.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	23,278	48.0%	3.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

59%

LAB

39%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Grantham and Stamford

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Gareth Davies (CON)
County/Area:	Lincolnshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	81,502
Turnout:	68.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	36,794	65.7%	32.9%
LAB	10,791	19.3%	33.9%
LIB	6,153	11.0%	8.4%
Green	2,265	4.0%	6.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	17.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
CON Majority	26,003	46.4%	1.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

46%

LAB

52%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Gravesham

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Adam Holloway (CON)
County/Area:	Kent (South East)
Electorate:	73,242
Turnout:	64.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,580	62.2%	35.0%
LAB	13,999	29.4%	42.8%
LIB	2,584	5.4%	5.0%
Green	1,397	2.9%	4.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	11.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	15,581	32.8%	7.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

31%

LAB

69%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Great Grimsby

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Lia Nici (CON)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	61,409
Turnout:	53.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,150	54.9%	24.3%
LAB	10,819	32.7%	48.6%
Reform	2,378	7.2%	17.2%
LIB	1,070	3.2%	4.5%
Green	514	1.6%	4.5%
OTH	156	0.5%	0.9%
CON Majority	7,331	22.2%	24.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

95%

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Great Yarmouth

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Brandon Lewis (CON)
County/Area:	Norfolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	71,957
Turnout:	60.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,593	65.8%	35.8%
LAB	10,930	25.1%	40.2%
LIB	1,661	3.8%	5.6%
OTH	1,214	2.8%	0.4%
Green	1,064	2.4%	4.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.4%
CON Majority	17,663	40.6%	4.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

36%

LAB

63%

LIB

OTH

Green

Reform

Greenwich and Woolwich

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Matthew Pennycook (LAB)
County/Area:	Greenwich (London)
Electorate:	79,997
Turnout:	66.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	30,185	56.8%	67.2%
CON	11,721	22.1%	9.7%
LIB	7,253	13.7%	4.7%
Green	2,363	4.4%	7.6%
Reform	1,228	2.3%	10.4%
OTH	370	0.7%	0.4%
LAB Majority	18,464	34.8%	56.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Guildford

Prediction: LIB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Angela Richardson (CON)
County/Area:	Surrey (South East)
Electorate:	77,729
Turnout:	75.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,317	44.9%	26.9%
LIB	22,980	39.2%	30.8%
LAB	4,515	7.7%	24.0%
MIN	4,356	7.4%	0.0%
OTH	483	0.8%	0.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.6%
Green	0	0.0%	5.2%
CON Majority	3,337	5.7%	3.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

28%

LIB

50%

LAB

20%

MIN

OTH

Reform

Green

Hackney North and Stoke Newington

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Diane Abbott (LAB)
County/Area:	Hackney (London)
Electorate:	92,462
Turnout:	61.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	39,972	70.3%	72.0%
CON	6,784	11.9%	4.5%
Green	4,989	8.8%	10.1%
LIB	4,283	7.5%	4.1%
Reform	609	1.1%	8.9%
OTH	227	0.4%	0.3%
LAB Majority	33,188	58.4%	61.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Green

LIB

Reform

OTH

Hackney South and Shoreditch

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Meg Hillier (LAB)
County/Area:	Hackney (London)
Electorate:	89,387
Turnout:	60.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	39,884	73.3%	74.8%
CON	5,899	10.8%	3.9%
LIB	4,853	8.9%	3.6%
Green	2,948	5.4%	8.7%
Reform	744	1.4%	8.7%
OTH	111	0.2%	0.3%
LAB Majority	33,985	62.4%	66.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Halesowen and Rowley Regis

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	James Morris (CON)
County/Area:	Black Country (West Midlands)
Electorate:	68,300
Turnout:	62.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,607	60.5%	32.3%
LAB	13,533	32.0%	46.0%
LIB	1,738	4.1%	4.3%
Green	934	2.2%	4.6%
OTH	533	1.3%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.3%
CON Majority	12,074	28.5%	13.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

19%

LAB

81%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Halifax

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Holly Lynch (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	71,887
Turnout:	64.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,496	46.3%	56.6%
CON	18,927	40.7%	19.4%
Reform	2,813	6.1%	14.4%
LIB	2,276	4.9%	3.3%
Green	946	2.0%	5.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	2,569	5.5%	37.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Haltemprice and Howden

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	David Davis (CON)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	71,083
Turnout:	70.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,045	62.4%	32.4%
LAB	10,716	21.5%	36.2%
LIB	5,215	10.5%	8.9%
Green	1,764	3.5%	5.9%
OTH	1,039	2.1%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	16.0%
CON Majority	20,329	40.8%	3.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

39%

LAB

59%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Halton

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Derek Twigg (LAB)
County/Area:	Cheshire (North West)
Electorate:	71,930
Turnout:	64.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	29,333	63.5%	68.3%
CON	10,358	22.4%	10.3%
Reform	3,730	8.1%	12.6%
LIB	1,800	3.9%	3.0%
Green	982	2.1%	5.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
LAB Majority	18,975	41.1%	55.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Hammersmith

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Andy Slaughter (LAB)
County/Area:	Hammersmith and Fulham (London)
Electorate:	74,759
Turnout:	69.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	30,074	57.9%	65.1%
CON	12,227	23.5%	10.9%
LIB	6,947	13.4%	5.4%
Green	1,744	3.4%	7.5%
Reform	974	1.9%	10.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	17,847	34.3%	54.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Hampshire East

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Damian Hinds (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	76,478
Turnout:	74.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,446	58.8%	33.6%
LIB	13,750	24.2%	21.8%
LAB	6,287	11.1%	24.6%
Green	2,600	4.6%	6.4%
OTH	812	1.4%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.2%
CON Majority	19,696	34.6%	9.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

66%

LIB

12%

LAB

21%

Green

OTH

Reform

Hampshire North East

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Ranil Jayawardena (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	78,954
Turnout:	75.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,280	59.5%	33.9%
LIB	15,069	25.4%	19.9%
LAB	5,760	9.7%	26.1%
Green	1,754	3.0%	6.0%
OTH	1,407	2.4%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.5%
CON Majority	20,211	34.1%	7.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

64%

LIB

LAB

26%

Green

OTH

Reform

Hampshire North West

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Kit Malthouse (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	83,083
Turnout:	70.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	36,591	62.1%	35.4%
LIB	10,283	17.5%	16.5%
LAB	9,327	15.8%	29.6%
Green	2,717	4.6%	5.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	26,308	44.7%	5.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

64%

LIB

LAB

33%

Green

Reform

OTH

Hampstead and Kilburn

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Tulip Siddiq (LAB)
County/Area:	Camden (London)
Electorate:	86,571
Turnout:	66.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	28,080	48.9%	57.2%
CON	13,892	24.2%	12.7%
LIB	13,121	22.9%	9.8%
Green	1,608	2.8%	8.5%
Reform	684	1.2%	11.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	14,188	24.7%	44.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Harborough

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Neil O'Brien (CON)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	80,151
Turnout:	71.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,698	55.3%	29.0%
LAB	14,420	25.2%	35.9%
LIB	9,103	15.9%	13.8%
Green	1,709	3.0%	5.9%
OTH	389	0.7%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.9%
CON Majority	17,278	30.1%	6.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

31%

LAB

66%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Harlow

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Robert Halfon (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	68,078
Turnout:	63.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,510	63.5%	32.8%
LAB	13,447	31.0%	44.5%
LIB	2,397	5.5%	5.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.7%
Green	0	0.0%	4.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	14,063	32.4%	11.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

21%

LAB

79%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Harrogate and Knaresborough

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Andrew Jones (CON)
County/Area:	North Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	77,941
Turnout:	73.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,962	52.6%	30.0%
LIB	20,287	35.6%	26.7%
LAB	5,480	9.6%	24.2%
OTH	1,208	2.1%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.1%
Green	0	0.0%	4.7%
CON Majority	9,675	17.0%	3.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

46%

LIB

29%

LAB

23%

OTH

Reform

Green

Harrow East

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Bob Blackman (CON)
County/Area:	Harrow (London)
Electorate:	72,106
Turnout:	68.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,935	54.4%	33.2%
LAB	18,765	37.9%	48.1%
LIB	3,791	7.7%	4.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	10.9%
Green	0	0.0%	2.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	8,170	16.5%	14.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

16%

LAB

84%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Harrow West

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Gareth Thomas (LAB)
County/Area:	Harrow (London)
Electorate:	72,464
Turnout:	66.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,132	52.4%	62.5%
CON	16,440	34.3%	18.9%
LIB	4,310	9.0%	3.8%
Green	1,109	2.3%	4.3%
Reform	931	1.9%	10.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
LAB Majority	8,692	18.1%	43.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Hartlepool

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Mike Hill (LAB)
County/Area:	Teesside (North East)
Electorate:	70,855
Turnout:	57.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,464	37.7%	39.3%
CON	11,869	28.9%	34.0%
Reform	10,603	25.8%	15.0%
LIB	1,696	4.1%	2.7%
OTH	1,405	3.4%	1.5%
Green	0	0.0%	2.7%
MIN	0	0.0%	4.8%
LAB Majority	3,595	8.8%	5.3% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result. Mr Hill resigned the seat in March 2021 and will face an employment tribunal later in the year. Jill Mortimer (Con) won the seat in a by-election on 6 May 2021.

Chance of winning

LAB

63%

CON

35%

Reform

LIB

OTH

Green

MIN

Harwich and North Essex

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Bernard Jenkin (CON)
County/Area:	Essex (Anglia)
Electorate:	74,153
Turnout:	70.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,830	61.3%	33.2%
LAB	11,648	22.4%	35.5%
LIB	5,866	11.3%	12.3%
Green	1,945	3.7%	5.6%
OTH	674	1.3%	0.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.2%
CON Majority	20,182	38.8%	2.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

43%

LAB

55%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Hastings and Rye

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Sally-Ann Hart (CON)
County/Area:	East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	80,524
Turnout:	67.4%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,896	49.6%	25.1%
LAB	22,853	42.1%	49.6%
LIB	3,960	7.3%	6.5%
OTH	565	1.0%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.9%
Green	0	0.0%	5.6%
CON Majority	4,043	7.4%	24.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

94%

LIB

OTH

Reform

Green

Havant

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Alan Mak (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	72,103
Turnout:	63.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,051	65.4%	38.8%
LAB	8,259	18.0%	31.6%
LIB	5,708	12.4%	10.6%
Green	1,597	3.5%	5.3%
OTH	344	0.7%	0.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.2%
CON Majority	21,792	47.4%	7.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

67%

LAB

32%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Hayes and Harlington

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	John McDonnell (LAB)
County/Area:	Hillingdon (London)
Electorate:	72,357
Turnout:	60.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,545	55.8%	67.2%
CON	15,284	34.7%	15.8%
LIB	1,947	4.4%	2.3%
Reform	1,292	2.9%	10.3%
Green	739	1.7%	3.9%
OTH	187	0.4%	0.5%
LAB Majority	9,261	21.1%	51.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Hazel Grove

Prediction: LIB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	William Wragg (CON)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	63,346
Turnout:	69.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,592	48.8%	25.9%
LIB	17,169	38.8%	27.7%
LAB	5,508	12.4%	26.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.1%
Green	0	0.0%	5.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	4,423	10.0%	0.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

28%

LIB

35%

LAB

34%

Reform

Green

OTH

Hemel Hempstead

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Mike Penning (CON)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	74,035
Turnout:	69.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	28,968	56.5%	28.3%
LAB	14,405	28.1%	40.2%
LIB	6,317	12.3%	12.1%
Green	1,581	3.1%	5.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.2%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	14,563	28.4%	11.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

21%

LAB

78%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Hemsworth

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Jon Trickett (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	73,726
Turnout:	59.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,460	37.5%	55.1%
CON	15,280	34.8%	16.7%
Reform	5,930	13.5%	18.6%
MIN	2,458	5.6%	0.0%
LIB	1,734	3.9%	3.7%
OTH	1,129	2.6%	0.7%
Green	916	2.1%	5.2%
LAB Majority	1,180	2.7%	36.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

MIN

LIB

OTH

Green

Hendon

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Matthew Offord (CON)
County/Area:	Barnet (London)
Electorate:	82,661
Turnout:	66.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,878	48.8%	25.4%
LAB	22,648	41.1%	53.5%
LIB	4,628	8.4%	4.4%
Green	921	1.7%	5.4%
Reform	0	0.0%	10.9%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	4,230	7.7%	28.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

96%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Henley

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	John Howell (CON)
County/Area:	Oxfordshire (South East)
Electorate:	76,646
Turnout:	76.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,189	54.8%	28.1%
LIB	18,136	30.9%	28.0%
LAB	5,698	9.7%	21.0%
Green	2,736	4.7%	8.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	14,053	23.9%	0.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

43%

LIB

39%

LAB

16%

Green

Reform

OTH

Hereford and South Herefordshire

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Jesse Norman (CON)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	72,085
Turnout:	68.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,390	61.2%	31.7%
LAB	10,704	21.6%	31.1%
LIB	6,181	12.5%	14.4%
Green	2,371	4.8%	6.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	15.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	19,686	39.7%	0.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

48%

LAB

48%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Herefordshire North

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Bill Wiggin (CON)
County/Area:	Hereford and Worcestershire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	70,252
Turnout:	72.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,158	63.0%	35.7%
LIB	7,302	14.3%	15.9%
LAB	6,804	13.3%	23.8%
Green	4,769	9.3%	8.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	15.4%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	24,856	48.7%	11.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

78%

LIB

LAB

18%

Green

Reform

OTH

Hertford and Stortford

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Julie Marson (CON)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	81,765
Turnout:	73.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	33,712	56.1%	30.5%
LAB	14,092	23.4%	30.5%
LIB	8,596	14.3%	12.5%
Green	2,705	4.5%	11.4%
OTH	989	1.6%	0.6%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.5%
CON Majority	19,620	32.6%	0.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

49%

LAB

48%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Hertfordshire North East

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Oliver Heald (CON)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	76,123
Turnout:	72.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,293	56.6%	32.2%
LAB	13,104	23.7%	35.2%
LIB	8,563	15.5%	12.9%
Green	2,367	4.3%	6.9%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	18,189	32.9%	3.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

42%

LAB

57%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Hertfordshire South West

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Gagan Mohindra (CON)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	80,449
Turnout:	76.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,327	49.6%	32.2%
MIN	15,919	26.0%	0.0%
LAB	7,228	11.8%	28.1%
LIB	6,251	10.2%	17.3%
Green	1,466	2.4%	5.7%
Reform	0	0.0%	15.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.0%
CON Majority	14,408	23.5%	4.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

59%

MIN

LAB

34%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Hertsmere

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Oliver Dowden (CON)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	73,971
Turnout:	70.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,651	62.5%	37.1%
LAB	11,338	21.7%	35.2%
LIB	6,561	12.6%	9.5%
Green	1,653	3.2%	5.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	12.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	21,313	40.8%	1.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

55%

LAB

44%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Hexham

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Guy Opperman (CON)
County/Area:	Northumberland (North East)
Electorate:	61,324
Turnout:	75.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,152	54.5%	29.5%
LAB	14,603	31.6%	41.0%
LIB	4,672	10.1%	9.2%
Green	1,723	3.7%	6.0%
Reform	0	0.0%	14.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.3%
CON Majority	10,549	22.9%	11.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

21%

LAB

78%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Heywood and Middleton

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Chris Clarkson (CON)
County/Area:	Eastern Manchester (North West)
Electorate:	80,162
Turnout:	59.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,453	43.1%	20.5%
LAB	19,790	41.7%	54.8%
Reform	3,952	8.3%	15.3%
LIB	2,073	4.4%	3.4%
Green	1,220	2.6%	5.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
CON Majority	663	1.4%	34.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

99%

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

High Peak

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Robert Largan (CON)
County/Area:	Derbyshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	74,265
Turnout:	72.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,844	45.9%	22.8%
LAB	24,254	44.8%	53.3%
LIB	2,750	5.1%	4.4%
Reform	1,177	2.2%	12.9%
Green	1,148	2.1%	6.1%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.4%
CON Majority	590	1.1%	30.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

97%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Hitchin and Harpenden

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Bim Afolami (CON)
County/Area:	Hertfordshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	76,323
Turnout:	77.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,719	47.1%	27.1%
LIB	20,824	35.4%	26.2%
LAB	9,959	16.9%	30.2%
OTH	369	0.6%	0.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	11.1%
Green	0	0.0%	5.0%
CON Majority	6,895	11.7%	3.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

30%

LIB

23%

LAB

46%

OTH

Reform

Green

Holborn and St Pancras

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Keir Starmer (LAB)
County/Area:	Camden (London)
Electorate:	86,061
Turnout:	66.0%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	36,641	64.5%	69.2%
CON	8,878	15.6%	7.3%
LIB	7,314	12.9%	4.8%
Green	2,746	4.8%	8.4%
Reform	1,032	1.8%	10.0%
OTH	175	0.3%	0.3%
LAB Majority	27,763	48.9%	59.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Hornchurch and Upminster

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Julia Lopez (CON)
County/Area:	Havering (London)
Electorate:	80,765
Turnout:	66.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,495	65.8%	32.3%
LAB	12,187	22.6%	36.8%
LIB	3,862	7.2%	5.1%
Green	1,920	3.6%	6.6%
OTH	510	0.9%	1.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	18.1%
CON Majority	23,308	43.2%	4.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

37%

LAB

60%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Hornsey and Wood Green

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Catherine West (LAB)
County/Area:	Haringey (London)
Electorate:	81,814
Turnout:	74.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	35,126	57.5%	58.6%
LIB	15,884	26.0%	16.0%
CON	6,829	11.2%	6.4%
Green	2,192	3.6%	8.4%
Reform	763	1.2%	10.3%
OTH	311	0.5%	0.3%
LAB Majority	19,242	31.5%	42.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

LIB

CON

Green

Reform

OTH

Horsham

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Jeremy Quin (CON)
County/Area:	West Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	86,730
Turnout:	72.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	35,900	56.8%	29.6%
LIB	14,773	23.4%	24.0%
LAB	9,424	14.9%	26.5%
Green	2,668	4.2%	6.6%
OTH	477	0.8%	0.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.0%
CON Majority	21,127	33.4%	3.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

48%

LIB

19%

LAB

32%

Green

OTH

Reform

Houghton and Sunderland South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Bridget Phillipson (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	68,835
Turnout:	57.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,210	40.7%	56.0%
CON	13,095	32.9%	15.2%
Reform	6,165	15.5%	17.6%
LIB	2,319	5.8%	5.0%
Green	1,125	2.8%	5.4%
OTH	897	2.3%	0.8%
LAB Majority	3,115	7.8%	38.3% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Hove

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Peter Kyle (LAB)
County/Area:	East Sussex (South East)
Electorate:	74,313
Turnout:	75.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	32,876	58.3%	62.6%
CON	15,832	28.1%	13.8%
LIB	3,731	6.6%	4.8%
Green	2,496	4.4%	8.2%
Reform	1,111	2.0%	10.3%
OTH	345	0.6%	0.4%
LAB Majority	17,044	30.2%	48.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Huddersfield

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Barry Sheerman (LAB)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	65,525
Turnout:	63.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,509	49.0%	59.4%
CON	15,572	37.2%	14.7%
LIB	2,367	5.7%	3.5%
Green	1,768	4.2%	7.5%
Reform	1,666	4.0%	14.3%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.7%
LAB Majority	4,937	11.8%	44.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Hull East

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Karl Turner (LAB)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	65,745
Turnout:	49.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	12,713	39.2%	54.0%
CON	11,474	35.4%	13.0%
Reform	5,764	17.8%	20.6%
LIB	1,707	5.3%	5.9%
Green	784	2.4%	5.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.9%
LAB Majority	1,239	3.8%	33.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Hull North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Diana Johnson (LAB)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	65,515
Turnout:	52.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,033	49.8%	60.5%
CON	9,440	27.6%	10.4%
Reform	4,771	13.9%	16.9%
LIB	2,084	6.1%	5.4%
Green	875	2.6%	6.0%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.8%
LAB Majority	7,593	22.2%	43.6% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Hull West and Hessle

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Emma Hardy (LAB)
County/Area:	Humber area (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	60,192
Turnout:	52.1%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	13,384	42.7%	54.1%
CON	10,528	33.6%	13.5%
Reform	5,638	18.0%	20.3%
LIB	1,756	5.6%	6.4%
Green	50	0.2%	4.7%
OTH	0	0.0%	1.0%
LAB Majority	2,856	9.1%	33.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Huntingdon

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Jonathan Djanogly (CON)
County/Area:	Cambridgeshire (Anglia)
Electorate:	84,657
Turnout:	69.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,386	54.8%	28.2%
LAB	13,003	22.0%	35.1%
LIB	9,432	15.9%	16.2%
Green	2,233	3.8%	6.2%
OTH	2,093	3.5%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.8%
CON Majority	19,383	32.8%	6.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

30%

LAB

67%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Hyndburn

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Sara Britcliffe (CON)
County/Area:	Lancashire (North West)
Electorate:	70,842
Turnout:	59.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,565	48.5%	23.1%
LAB	17,614	41.5%	53.9%
Reform	2,156	5.1%	14.5%
LIB	1,226	2.9%	3.3%
Green	845	2.0%	4.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.6%
CON Majority	2,951	7.0%	30.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

98%

Reform

LIB

Green

OTH

Ilford North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Wes Streeting (LAB)
County/Area:	Redbridge (London)
Electorate:	72,973
Turnout:	68.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,323	50.5%	60.3%
CON	20,105	40.1%	21.5%
LIB	2,680	5.3%	3.0%
Reform	960	1.9%	10.4%
Green	845	1.7%	4.3%
OTH	201	0.4%	0.4%
LAB Majority	5,218	10.4%	38.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

99%

CON

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Ilford South

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Sam Tarry (LAB)
County/Area:	Redbridge (London)
Electorate:	84,972
Turnout:	62.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	35,085	65.6%	75.1%
CON	10,984	20.5%	10.0%
MIN	3,891	7.3%	0.0%
LIB	1,795	3.4%	1.8%
Reform	1,008	1.9%	9.1%
Green	714	1.3%	3.5%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
LAB Majority	24,101	45.1%	65.1% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

MIN

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Ipswich

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Tom Hunt (CON)
County/Area:	Suffolk (Anglia)
Electorate:	75,525
Turnout:	65.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,952	50.3%	24.1%
LAB	19,473	39.3%	53.1%
LIB	2,439	4.9%	4.6%
Reform	1,432	2.9%	12.1%
Green	1,283	2.6%	5.6%
OTH	0	0.0%	0.5%
CON Majority	5,479	11.1%	29.0% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

97%

LIB

Reform

Green

OTH

Isle of Wight

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Bob Seely (CON)
County/Area:	Hampshire (South East)
Electorate:	113,021
Turnout:	65.9%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	41,815	56.2%	28.8%
LAB	18,078	24.3%	35.7%
Green	11,338	15.2%	10.4%
OTH	3,211	4.3%	0.7%
LIB	0	0.0%	7.8%
Reform	0	0.0%	16.7%
CON Majority	23,737	31.9%	6.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

32%

LAB

65%

Green

OTH

LIB

Reform

Islington North

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Jeremy Corbyn (LAB)
County/Area:	Islington (London)
Electorate:	75,162
Turnout:	71.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	34,603	64.3%	67.1%
LIB	8,415	15.6%	5.7%
CON	5,483	10.2%	4.4%
Green	4,326	8.0%	12.3%
Reform	742	1.4%	10.1%
OTH	236	0.4%	0.3%
LAB Majority	26,188	48.7%	54.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

LIB

CON

Green

Reform

OTH

Islington South and Finsbury

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Emily Thornberry (LAB)
County/Area:	Islington (London)
Electorate:	70,489
Turnout:	67.8%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	26,897	56.3%	64.8%
LIB	9,569	20.0%	6.7%
CON	8,045	16.8%	7.9%
Green	1,987	4.2%	9.1%
Reform	1,136	2.4%	11.2%
OTH	182	0.4%	0.3%
LAB Majority	17,328	36.2%	53.7% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

LIB

CON

Green

Reform

OTH

Jarrow

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	Kate Osborne (LAB)
County/Area:	Newcastle area (North East)
Electorate:	65,103
Turnout:	62.6%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,363	45.1%	58.8%
CON	11,243	27.6%	13.0%
Reform	4,122	10.1%	17.3%
MIN	2,991	7.3%	0.0%
LIB	2,360	5.8%	4.3%
Green	831	2.0%	5.6%
OTH	826	2.0%	1.0%
LAB Majority	7,120	17.5%	41.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

MIN

LIB

Green

OTH

Keighley

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Robbie Moore (CON)
County/Area:	West Yorkshire (Yorks/Humber)
Electorate:	72,778
Turnout:	72.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,298	48.1%	24.2%
LAB	23,080	43.9%	52.4%
LIB	2,573	4.9%	4.1%
Reform	850	1.6%	13.8%
OTH	799	1.5%	0.5%
Green	0	0.0%	4.9%
CON Majority	2,218	4.2%	28.2% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

97%

LIB

Reform

OTH

Green

Kenilworth and Southam

Prediction: CON hold

MP at 2019:	Jeremy Wright (CON)
County/Area:	Warwickshire (West Midlands)
Electorate:	68,154
Turnout:	77.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,351	57.7%	32.2%
LIB	9,998	19.0%	19.2%
LAB	9,440	17.9%	27.9%
Green	2,351	4.5%	7.1%
OTH	457	0.9%	0.3%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.3%
CON Majority	20,353	38.7%	4.4% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

58%

LIB

LAB

34%

Green

OTH

Reform

Kensington

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Felicity Buchan (CON)
County/Area:	Kensington and Chelsea (London)
Electorate:	64,609
Turnout:	67.7%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	16,768	38.3%	23.6%
LAB	16,618	38.0%	47.5%
LIB	9,312	21.3%	9.9%
Green	535	1.2%	6.8%
Reform	384	0.9%	11.8%
OTH	145	0.3%	0.4%
CON Majority	150	0.3%	23.9% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

LAB

94%

LIB

Green

Reform

OTH

Kettering

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Philip Hollobone (CON)
County/Area:	Northamptonshire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	73,164
Turnout:	67.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,787	60.3%	30.6%
LAB	13,022	26.4%	41.1%
LIB	3,367	6.8%	5.9%
OTH	1,642	3.3%	0.7%
Green	1,543	3.1%	6.1%
Reform	0	0.0%	15.7%
CON Majority	16,765	34.0%	10.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

CON

23%

LAB

76%

LIB

OTH

Green

Reform

Kingston and Surbiton

Prediction: LIB hold

MP at 2019:	Ed Davey (LIB)
County/Area:	Kingston Upon Thames (London)
Electorate:	81,975
Turnout:	74.2%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	31,103	51.1%	43.9%
CON	20,614	33.9%	18.6%
LAB	6,528	10.7%	20.4%
Green	1,038	1.7%	4.8%
Reform	788	1.3%	11.9%
OTH	775	1.3%	0.3%
LIB Majority	10,489	17.2%	23.5% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LIB

92%

CON

LAB

Green

Reform

OTH

Kingswood

Prediction: LAB gain from CON

MP at 2019:	Chris Skidmore (CON)
County/Area:	Bristol area (South West)
Electorate:	68,972
Turnout:	71.5%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,712	56.2%	27.8%
LAB	16,492	33.4%	44.5%
LIB	3,421	6.9%	7.6%
Green	1,200	2.4%	6.2%
OTH	489	1.0%	0.5%
Reform	0	0.0%	13.4%
CON Majority	11,220	22.8%	16.7% Pred Maj

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Result shown is the original general election result, before Chris Skidmore resigned over government policy. Damien Egan (Labour) won the seat in a by-election on 15 February 2024.

Chance of winning

CON

14%

LAB

85%

LIB

Green

OTH

Reform

Knowsley

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2019:	George Howarth (LAB)
County/Area:	Merseyside (North West)
Electorate:	84,082
Turnout:	65.3%

Party	2019 Votes	2019 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	44,374	80.8%	76.6%
CON	4,432	8.1%	4.0%
Reform	3,348	6.1%	10.8%
Green	1,262	2.3%	5.4%
LIB	1,117	2.0%	2.7%
OTH	405	0.7%	0.6%
LAB Majority	39,942	72.7%	65.8% Pred Maj

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Chance of winning

LAB

100%

CON

Reform

Green

LIB

OTH