Constituency List: England F-K

Fareham
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Mark Hoban (CON)
Electorate: 75,878
Turnout: 71.62%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,037	55.27%	56.05%
LIB	12,945	23.82%	11.13%
LAB	7,719	14.20%	24.19%
OTH	3,644	6.71%	8.63%
CON Majority	17,092	31.45%	Pred Maj 31.86%

Chance of winning

CON

96.1%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

3.7%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Faversham and Kent Mid
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Hugh Robertson (CON)
Electorate: 68,858
Turnout: 67.84%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,250	56.20%	56.96%
LIB	9,162	19.61%	7.17%
LAB	7,748	16.59%	26.38%
OTH	3,552	7.60%	9.49%
CON Majority	17,088	36.58%	Pred Maj 30.58%

Chance of winning

CON

95.7%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

4.1%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Feltham and Heston
County/Area: Hounslow (South London)
MP: Alan Keen (LAB)
Electorate: 81,058
Turnout: 59.88%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	21,174	43.63%	51.46%
CON	16,516	34.03%	34.64%
LIB	6,679	13.76%	3.81%
OTH	4,167	8.59%	10.10%
LAB Majority	4,658	9.60%	Pred Maj 16.82%

Chance of winning

LAB

87.5%

CON

12.4%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Filton and Bradley Stoke
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP: Jack Lopresti (CON)
Electorate: 69,003
Turnout: 70.00%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,686	40.76%	41.51%
LAB	12,772	26.44%	36.16%
LIB	12,197	25.25%	12.90%
OTH	3,646	7.55%	9.43%
CON Majority	6,914	14.31%	Pred Maj 5.35%

Chance of winning

CON

59.3%

LAB

39.5%

LIB

0.6%

OTH

0.6%

Top

Finchley and Golders Green
County/Area: Barnet (North London)
MP: Mike Freer (CON)
Electorate: 77,198
Turnout: 61.09%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,688	45.99%	46.75%
LAB	15,879	33.67%	43.37%
LIB	8,036	17.04%	4.71%
OTH	1,554	3.30%	5.17%
CON Majority	5,809	12.32%	Pred Maj 3.38%

Chance of winning

CON

58.2%

LAB

41.7%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Folkestone and Hythe
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Damian Collins (CON)
Electorate: 78,003
Turnout: 67.69%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,109	49.45%	50.23%
LIB	15,987	30.28%	17.59%
LAB	5,719	10.83%	20.81%
OTH	4,985	9.44%	11.37%
CON Majority	10,122	19.17%	Pred Maj 29.41%

Chance of winning

CON

93.9%

LIB

0.4%

LAB

5.4%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Forest of Dean
County/Area: Gloucestershire (West)
MP: Mark Harper (CON)
Electorate: 68,419
Turnout: 71.27%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,853	46.87%	47.62%
LAB	11,789	24.18%	33.89%
LIB	10,676	21.89%	9.54%
OTH	3,445	7.06%	8.94%
CON Majority	11,064	22.69%	Pred Maj 13.73%

Chance of winning

CON

78.0%

LAB

21.6%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Fylde
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Mark Menzies (CON)
Electorate: 65,917
Turnout: 66.28%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,826	52.25%	53.10%
LIB	9,641	22.07%	8.20%
LAB	8,624	19.74%	30.65%
OTH	2,599	5.95%	8.06%
CON Majority	13,185	30.18%	Pred Maj 22.45%

Chance of winning

CON

88.2%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

11.4%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Gainsborough
County/Area: Lincolnshire (Humberside)
MP: Edward Leigh (CON)
Electorate: 72,144
Turnout: 68.27%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,266	49.27%	50.08%
LIB	13,707	27.83%	14.65%
LAB	7,701	15.64%	26.01%
OTH	3,577	7.26%	9.27%
CON Majority	10,559	21.44%	Pred Maj 24.07%

Chance of winning

CON

90.5%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

9.0%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Garston and Halewood
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: Maria Eagle (LAB)
Electorate: 71,312
Turnout: 60.05%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,493	59.53%	70.44%
LIB	8,616	20.12%	6.25%
CON	6,908	16.13%	16.98%
OTH	1,808	4.22%	6.33%
LAB Majority	16,877	39.41%	Pred Maj 53.46%

Chance of winning

LAB

100.0%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Gateshead
County/Area: Newcastle area (North)
MP: Ian Mearns (LAB)
Electorate: 66,492
Turnout: 57.54%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,712	54.14%	64.88%
LIB	8,163	21.34%	7.69%
CON	5,716	14.94%	15.78%
OTH	3,666	9.58%	11.66%
LAB Majority	12,549	32.80%	Pred Maj 49.10%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.7%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.3%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Gedling
County/Area: Nottinghamshire (East Midlands)
MP: Vernon Coaker (LAB)
Electorate: 70,590
Turnout: 68.27%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,821	41.13%	49.19%
CON	17,962	37.27%	37.90%
LIB	7,350	15.25%	5.01%
OTH	3,057	6.34%	7.90%
LAB Majority	1,859	3.86%	Pred Maj 11.29%

Chance of winning

LAB

77.8%

CON

22.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Gillingham and Rainham
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Rehman Chishti (CON)
Electorate: 70,865
Turnout: 66.02%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,624	46.22%	46.92%
LAB	12,944	27.67%	36.72%
LIB	8,484	18.13%	6.63%
OTH	3,734	7.98%	9.73%
CON Majority	8,680	18.55%	Pred Maj 10.21%

Chance of winning

CON

71.7%

LAB

28.0%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Gloucester
County/Area: Gloucestershire (West)
MP: Richard Graham (CON)
Electorate: 79,322
Turnout: 64.00%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,267	39.92%	40.65%
LAB	17,847	35.16%	44.50%
LIB	9,767	19.24%	7.36%
OTH	2,883	5.68%	7.48%
CON Majority	2,420	4.77%	Pred Maj 3.85%

Chance of winning

CON

40.9%

LAB

58.7%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.4%

Top

LAB Gain

Gosport
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Caroline Dinenage (CON)
Electorate: 72,720
Turnout: 64.55%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,300	51.77%	52.55%
LIB	9,887	21.06%	8.37%
LAB	7,944	16.92%	26.91%
OTH	4,808	10.24%	12.17%
CON Majority	14,413	30.71%	Pred Maj 25.64%

Chance of winning

CON

91.8%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

7.9%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Grantham and Stamford
County/Area: Lincolnshire (Humberside)
MP: Nicholas Boles (CON)
Electorate: 78,000
Turnout: 67.69%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,552	50.29%	51.10%
LIB	11,726	22.21%	9.03%
LAB	9,503	18.00%	28.37%
OTH	5,018	9.50%	11.51%
CON Majority	14,826	28.08%	Pred Maj 22.73%

Chance of winning

CON

89.0%

LIB

0.2%

LAB

10.5%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Gravesham
County/Area: Kent (South East)
MP: Adam Holloway (CON)
Electorate: 70,195
Turnout: 67.39%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,956	48.53%	49.05%
LAB	13,644	28.84%	35.48%
LIB	6,293	13.30%	4.86%
OTH	4,410	9.32%	10.61%
CON Majority	9,312	19.69%	Pred Maj 13.56%

Chance of winning

CON

77.8%

LAB

22.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Great Grimsby
County/Area: Humber area (Humberside)
MP: Austin Mitchell (LAB)
Electorate: 61,229
Turnout: 53.82%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	10,777	32.70%	43.07%
CON	10,063	30.54%	31.35%
LIB	7,388	22.42%	9.24%
OTH	4,726	14.34%	16.34%
LAB Majority	714	2.17%	Pred Maj 11.73%

Chance of winning

LAB

71.9%

CON

25.5%

LIB

0.2%

OTH

2.4%

Top

Great Yarmouth
County/Area: Norfolk (East Anglia)
MP: Brandon Lewis (CON)
Electorate: 70,315
Turnout: 61.23%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,571	43.13%	43.72%
LAB	14,295	33.20%	40.71%
LIB	6,188	14.37%	4.82%
OTH	4,003	9.30%	10.75%
CON Majority	4,276	9.93%	Pred Maj 3.00%

Chance of winning

CON

53.2%

LAB

46.5%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Greenwich and Woolwich
County/Area: Greenwich (South London)
MP: Nick Raynsford (LAB)
Electorate: 65,489
Turnout: 62.89%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,262	49.19%	59.55%
CON	10,109	24.54%	25.35%
LIB	7,498	18.20%	5.04%
OTH	3,319	8.06%	10.06%
LAB Majority	10,153	24.65%	Pred Maj 34.20%

Chance of winning

LAB

96.3%

CON

3.7%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Guildford
County/Area: Surrey (South)
MP: Anne Milton (CON)
Electorate: 77,082
Turnout: 72.09%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,618	53.30%	54.08%
LIB	21,836	39.30%	26.61%
LAB	2,812	5.06%	15.04%
OTH	1,301	2.34%	4.27%
CON Majority	7,782	14.00%	Pred Maj 27.47%

Chance of winning

CON

97.0%

LIB

1.3%

LAB

1.7%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Hackney North and Stoke Newington
County/Area: Hackney (North London)
MP: Diane Abbott (LAB)
Electorate: 73,874
Turnout: 62.93%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,553	54.97%	66.35%
LIB	11,092	23.86%	9.39%
CON	6,759	14.54%	15.43%
OTH	3,084	6.63%	8.83%
LAB Majority	14,461	31.11%	Pred Maj 50.92%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.7%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.3%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Hackney South and Shoreditch
County/Area: Hackney (North London)
MP: Meg Hillier (LAB)
Electorate: 72,816
Turnout: 58.86%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,888	55.74%	67.12%
LIB	9,600	22.40%	7.93%
CON	5,800	13.53%	14.42%
OTH	3,570	8.33%	10.53%
LAB Majority	14,288	33.34%	Pred Maj 52.70%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.8%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.2%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Halesowen and Rowley Regis
County/Area: Black Country (West Midlands)
MP: James Morris (CON)
Electorate: 63,693
Turnout: 69.05%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,115	41.19%	41.82%
LAB	16,092	36.59%	44.64%
LIB	6,515	14.81%	4.58%
OTH	3,257	7.41%	8.96%
CON Majority	2,023	4.60%	Pred Maj 2.82%

Chance of winning

CON

41.2%

LAB

58.5%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

LAB Gain

Halifax
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Linda Riordan (LAB)
Electorate: 70,380
Turnout: 61.89%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,278	37.37%	47.30%
CON	14,806	33.99%	34.77%
LIB	8,335	19.14%	6.52%
OTH	4,136	9.50%	11.41%
LAB Majority	1,472	3.38%	Pred Maj 12.53%

Chance of winning

LAB

75.4%

CON

24.1%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.4%

Top

Haltemprice and Howden
County/Area: Humber area (Humberside)
MP: David Davis (CON)
Electorate: 70,403
Turnout: 69.23%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,486	50.24%	51.05%
LIB	12,884	26.44%	13.25%
LAB	7,630	15.66%	26.03%
OTH	3,737	7.67%	9.67%
CON Majority	11,602	23.81%	Pred Maj 25.02%

Chance of winning

CON

91.0%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

8.5%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Halton
County/Area: Cheshire (Severn)
MP: Derek Twigg (LAB)
Electorate: 68,884
Turnout: 60.01%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,843	57.68%	65.19%
CON	8,339	20.17%	20.76%
LIB	5,718	13.83%	4.28%
OTH	3,438	8.32%	9.77%
LAB Majority	15,504	37.51%	Pred Maj 44.43%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.7%

CON

0.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Hammersmith
County/Area: Hammersmith and Fulham (North London)
MP: Andy Slaughter (LAB)
Electorate: 72,348
Turnout: 65.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,810	43.85%	52.93%
CON	17,261	36.38%	37.08%
LIB	7,567	15.95%	4.41%
OTH	1,814	3.82%	5.58%
LAB Majority	3,549	7.48%	Pred Maj 15.85%

Chance of winning

LAB

84.2%

CON

15.8%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Hampshire East
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Damian Hinds (CON)
Electorate: 72,250
Turnout: 71.03%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,137	56.78%	57.56%
LIB	15,640	30.48%	17.79%
LAB	4,043	7.88%	17.86%
OTH	2,497	4.87%	6.79%
CON Majority	13,497	26.30%	Pred Maj 39.70%

Chance of winning

CON

98.4%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

1.3%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Hampshire North East
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: James Arbuthnot (CON)
Electorate: 72,196
Turnout: 73.33%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,075	60.59%	61.37%
LIB	13,478	25.46%	12.77%
LAB	5,173	9.77%	19.75%
OTH	2,213	4.18%	6.11%
CON Majority	18,597	35.13%	Pred Maj 41.61%

Chance of winning

CON

99.0%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

0.9%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Hampshire North West
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Sir George Young (CON)
Electorate: 76,040
Turnout: 70.08%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	31,072	58.31%	59.08%
LIB	12,489	23.44%	10.75%
LAB	6,980	13.10%	23.08%
OTH	2,751	5.16%	7.09%
CON Majority	18,583	34.87%	Pred Maj 36.00%

Chance of winning

CON

97.4%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

2.5%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Hampstead and Kilburn
County/Area: Camden (North London)
MP: Glenda Jackson (LAB)
Electorate: 79,713
Turnout: 66.27%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,332	32.81%	44.19%
CON	17,290	32.73%	33.62%
LIB	16,491	31.22%	16.75%
OTH	1,709	3.24%	5.43%
LAB Majority	42	0.08%	Pred Maj 10.57%

Chance of winning

LAB

68.1%

CON

29.5%

LIB

1.9%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Harborough
County/Area: Leicestershire (East Midlands)
MP: Edward Garnier (CON)
Electorate: 77,917
Turnout: 70.52%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,894	48.95%	49.77%
LIB	17,097	31.12%	17.68%
LAB	6,981	12.71%	23.27%
OTH	3,973	7.23%	9.27%
CON Majority	9,797	17.83%	Pred Maj 26.50%

Chance of winning

CON

91.8%

LIB

0.6%

LAB

7.4%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Harlow
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Robert Halfon (CON)
Electorate: 67,439
Turnout: 65.06%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,691	44.88%	45.43%
LAB	14,766	33.65%	40.79%
LIB	5,990	13.65%	4.58%
OTH	3,431	7.82%	9.20%
CON Majority	4,925	11.22%	Pred Maj 4.64%

Chance of winning

CON

58.6%

LAB

41.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Harrogate and Knaresborough
County/Area: North Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Andrew Jones (CON)
Electorate: 75,269
Turnout: 70.59%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,305	45.74%	46.55%
LIB	23,266	43.79%	30.60%
LAB	3,413	6.42%	16.79%
OTH	2,150	4.05%	6.05%
CON Majority	1,039	1.96%	Pred Maj 15.95%

Chance of winning

CON

84.4%

LIB

10.7%

LAB

4.6%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Harrow East
County/Area: Harrow (North London)
MP: Bob Blackman (CON)
Electorate: 68,554
Turnout: 70.03%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,435	44.65%	45.28%
LAB	18,032	37.56%	45.68%
LIB	6,850	14.27%	3.95%
OTH	1,689	3.52%	5.09%
CON Majority	3,403	7.09%	Pred Maj 0.40%

Chance of winning

CON

47.8%

LAB

52.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

LAB Gain

Harrow West
County/Area: Harrow (North London)
MP: Gareth Thomas (LAB)
Electorate: 71,510
Turnout: 64.49%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,111	43.61%	52.81%
CON	16,968	36.79%	37.51%
LIB	7,458	16.17%	4.47%
OTH	1,579	3.42%	5.20%
LAB Majority	3,143	6.82%	Pred Maj 15.30%

Chance of winning

LAB

83.5%

CON

16.5%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Hartlepool
County/Area: Teeside (North)
MP: Iain Wright (LAB)
Electorate: 68,923
Turnout: 55.49%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,267	42.54%	51.71%
CON	10,758	28.13%	28.85%
LIB	6,533	17.08%	5.42%
OTH	4,684	12.25%	14.02%
LAB Majority	5,509	14.41%	Pred Maj 22.86%

Chance of winning

LAB

91.5%

CON

8.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Harwich and North Essex
County/Area: Essex (Essex)
MP: Bernard Jenkin (CON)
Electorate: 70,743
Turnout: 69.26%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,001	46.94%	47.76%
LIB	11,554	23.58%	10.29%
LAB	9,774	19.95%	30.40%
OTH	4,671	9.53%	11.55%
CON Majority	11,447	23.36%	Pred Maj 17.35%

Chance of winning

CON

83.4%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

16.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Hastings and Rye
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
MP: Amber Rudd (CON)
Electorate: 78,000
Turnout: 63.86%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,468	41.09%	41.70%
LAB	18,475	37.09%	44.93%
LIB	7,825	15.71%	5.74%
OTH	3,046	6.11%	7.63%
CON Majority	1,993	4.00%	Pred Maj 3.23%

Chance of winning

CON

40.5%

LAB

59.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

LAB Gain

Havant
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: David Willetts (CON)
Electorate: 69,712
Turnout: 62.98%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,433	51.10%	51.87%
LIB	10,273	23.40%	10.71%
LAB	7,777	17.71%	27.70%
OTH	3,420	7.79%	9.72%
CON Majority	12,160	27.70%	Pred Maj 24.18%

Chance of winning

CON

90.7%

LIB

0.2%

LAB

9.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Hayes and Harlington
County/Area: Hillingdon (South London)
MP: John McDonnell (LAB)
Electorate: 70,233
Turnout: 60.71%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	23,377	54.83%	59.80%
CON	12,553	29.44%	29.83%
LIB	3,726	8.74%	2.42%
OTH	2,981	6.99%	7.95%
LAB Majority	10,824	25.39%	Pred Maj 29.97%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.8%

CON

1.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Hazel Grove
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Andrew Stunell (LIB)
Electorate: 63,074
Turnout: 66.56%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	20,485	48.80%	34.93%
CON	14,114	33.62%	34.47%
LAB	5,234	12.47%	23.38%
OTH	2,148	5.12%	7.22%
LIB Majority	6,371	15.18%	Pred Maj 0.46%

Chance of winning

LIB

40.4%

CON

41.6%

LAB

17.0%

OTH

1.0%

Top

Hemel Hempstead
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Essex)
MP: Michael Penning (CON)
Electorate: 72,754
Turnout: 68.00%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,721	49.97%	50.79%
LIB	11,315	22.87%	9.58%
LAB	10,295	20.81%	31.27%
OTH	3,140	6.35%	8.37%
CON Majority	13,406	27.10%	Pred Maj 19.52%

Chance of winning

CON

87.0%

LIB

0.2%

LAB

12.7%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Hemsworth
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Jon Trickett (LAB)
Electorate: 72,552
Turnout: 60.43%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,506	46.77%	53.48%
CON	10,662	24.32%	24.84%
LIB	5,667	12.93%	4.41%
MIN	3,946	9.00%	9.00%
OTH	3,059	6.98%	8.27%
LAB Majority	9,844	22.45%	Pred Maj 28.64%

Chance of winning

LAB

97.6%

CON

2.4%

LIB

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Hendon
County/Area: Barnet (North London)
MP: Matthew Offord (CON)
Electorate: 78,923
Turnout: 58.76%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,635	42.34%	42.89%
LAB	19,529	42.11%	49.15%
LIB	5,734	12.36%	3.42%
OTH	1,476	3.18%	4.54%
CON Majority	106	0.23%	Pred Maj 6.26%

Chance of winning

CON

30.9%

LAB

69.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

LAB Gain

Henley
County/Area: Oxfordshire (West)
MP: John Howell (CON)
Electorate: 75,005
Turnout: 71.36%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,054	56.15%	56.91%
LIB	13,466	25.16%	12.81%
LAB	5,835	10.90%	20.62%
OTH	4,165	7.78%	9.66%
CON Majority	16,588	30.99%	Pred Maj 36.29%

Chance of winning

CON

97.2%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

2.6%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Hereford and South Herefordshire
County/Area: Hereford and Worcestershire (Severn)
MP: Jesse Norman (CON)
Electorate: 71,435
Turnout: 67.73%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	22,366	46.23%	47.08%
LIB	19,885	41.10%	27.29%
LAB	3,506	7.25%	18.11%
OTH	2,624	5.42%	7.52%
CON Majority	2,481	5.13%	Pred Maj 19.79%

Chance of winning

CON

86.3%

LIB

6.7%

LAB

6.4%

OTH

0.6%

Top

Herefordshire North
County/Area: Hereford and Worcestershire (Severn)
MP: Bill Wiggin (CON)
Electorate: 66,525
Turnout: 71.50%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	24,631	51.78%	52.63%
LIB	14,744	31.00%	17.19%
LAB	3,373	7.09%	17.96%
MIN	2,701	5.68%	5.68%
OTH	2,119	4.45%	6.55%
CON Majority	9,887	20.78%	Pred Maj 34.67%

Chance of winning

CON

96.1%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

3.3%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

Hertford and Stortford
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Essex)
MP: Mark Prisk (CON)
Electorate: 78,459
Turnout: 70.58%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,810	53.83%	54.65%
LIB	14,373	25.95%	12.66%
LAB	7,620	13.76%	24.22%
OTH	3,574	6.45%	8.47%
CON Majority	15,437	27.88%	Pred Maj 30.43%

Chance of winning

CON

95.4%

LIB

0.2%

LAB

4.3%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Hertfordshire North East
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Essex)
MP: Oliver Heald (CON)
Electorate: 72,200
Turnout: 69.84%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,995	53.53%	54.35%
LIB	11,801	23.40%	10.11%
LAB	8,291	16.44%	26.90%
OTH	3,338	6.62%	8.64%
CON Majority	15,194	30.13%	Pred Maj 27.45%

Chance of winning

CON

93.7%

LIB

0.1%

LAB

6.1%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Hertfordshire South West
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Essex)
MP: David Gauke (CON)
Electorate: 78,248
Turnout: 72.53%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	30,773	54.23%	55.04%
LIB	15,853	27.93%	14.64%
LAB	6,526	11.50%	21.96%
OTH	3,598	6.34%	8.36%
CON Majority	14,920	26.29%	Pred Maj 33.08%

Chance of winning

CON

96.2%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

3.4%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Hertsmere
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Essex)
MP: James Clappison (CON)
Electorate: 73,062
Turnout: 64.70%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,476	56.01%	56.72%
LAB	8,871	18.77%	27.85%
LIB	8,210	17.37%	5.83%
OTH	3,713	7.85%	9.61%
CON Majority	17,605	37.24%	Pred Maj 28.87%

Chance of winning

CON

95.1%

LAB

4.8%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Hexham
County/Area: Northumberland (North)
MP: Guy Opperman (CON)
Electorate: 61,375
Turnout: 70.85%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,795	43.22%	44.06%
LIB	13,007	29.91%	16.26%
LAB	8,253	18.98%	29.72%
OTH	3,428	7.88%	9.96%
CON Majority	5,788	13.31%	Pred Maj 14.34%

Chance of winning

CON

76.8%

LIB

1.6%

LAB

21.1%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Heywood and Middleton
County/Area: Eastern Manchester (Greater Manchester)
MP: Jim Dobbin (LAB)
Electorate: 80,171
Turnout: 57.53%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,499	40.11%	51.02%
CON	12,528	27.16%	28.01%
LIB	10,474	22.71%	8.84%
OTH	4,624	10.02%	12.13%
LAB Majority	5,971	12.95%	Pred Maj 23.01%

Chance of winning

LAB

87.7%

CON

11.7%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.5%

Top

High Peak
County/Area: Derbyshire (East Midlands)
MP: Andrew Bingham (CON)
Electorate: 71,973
Turnout: 69.94%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,587	40.90%	41.72%
LAB	15,910	31.61%	42.17%
LIB	10,993	21.84%	8.41%
OTH	2,847	5.66%	7.70%
CON Majority	4,677	9.29%	Pred Maj 0.45%

Chance of winning

CON

48.2%

LAB

51.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.5%

Top

LAB Gain

Hitchin and Harpenden
County/Area: Hertfordshire (Essex)
MP: Peter Lilley (CON)
Electorate: 73,851
Turnout: 74.08%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,869	54.60%	55.41%
LIB	14,598	26.68%	13.39%
LAB	7,413	13.55%	24.01%
OTH	2,827	5.17%	7.19%
CON Majority	15,271	27.91%	Pred Maj 31.41%

Chance of winning

CON

95.8%

LIB

0.2%

LAB

3.9%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Holborn and St Pancras
County/Area: Camden (North London)
MP: Frank Dobson (LAB)
Electorate: 86,863
Turnout: 62.91%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,198	46.11%	57.49%
LIB	15,256	27.92%	13.45%
CON	11,134	20.37%	21.26%
OTH	3,061	5.60%	7.80%
LAB Majority	9,942	18.19%	Pred Maj 36.23%

Chance of winning

LAB

96.0%

LIB

0.1%

CON

3.7%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Hornchurch and Upminster
County/Area: Havering (North London)
MP: Angela Watkinson (CON)
Electorate: 78,487
Turnout: 68.02%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	27,469	51.45%	52.07%
LAB	11,098	20.79%	28.70%
LIB	7,426	13.91%	3.85%
OTH	3,976	7.45%	8.98%
MIN	3,421	6.41%	6.41%
CON Majority	16,371	30.66%	Pred Maj 23.36%

Chance of winning

CON

90.2%

LAB

9.6%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.1%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Hornsey and Wood Green
County/Area: Haringey (North London)
MP: Lynne Featherstone (LIB)
Electorate: 79,916
Turnout: 68.87%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	25,595	46.50%	32.03%
LAB	18,720	34.01%	45.39%
CON	9,174	16.67%	17.55%
OTH	1,553	2.82%	5.02%
LIB Majority	6,875	12.49%	Pred Maj 13.36%

Chance of winning

LIB

17.7%

LAB

75.0%

CON

6.3%

OTH

1.0%

Top

LAB Gain

Horsham
County/Area: West Sussex (South East)
MP: Francis Maude (CON)
Electorate: 76,835
Turnout: 72.68%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	29,447	52.73%	53.51%
LIB	17,987	32.21%	19.52%
OTH	4,218	7.55%	9.48%
LAB	4,189	7.50%	17.48%
CON Majority	11,460	20.52%	Pred Maj 33.99%

Chance of winning

CON

96.8%

LIB

0.3%

OTH

0.1%

LAB

2.8%

Top

Houghton and Sunderland South
County/Area: Newcastle area (North)
MP: Bridget Phillipson (LAB)
Electorate: 68,729
Turnout: 55.32%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	19,137	50.33%	57.81%
CON	8,147	21.43%	22.01%
LIB	5,292	13.92%	4.42%
OTH	2,983	7.85%	9.29%
MIN	2,462	6.48%	6.48%
LAB Majority	10,990	28.91%	Pred Maj 35.80%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.9%

CON

1.1%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Hove
County/Area: East Sussex (South East)
MP: Mike Weatherley (CON)
Electorate: 71,708
Turnout: 69.47%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,294	36.72%	37.50%
LAB	16,426	32.97%	42.95%
LIB	11,240	22.56%	9.87%
OTH	3,859	7.75%	9.67%
CON Majority	1,868	3.75%	Pred Maj 5.45%

Chance of winning

CON

37.6%

LAB

61.5%

LIB

0.3%

OTH

0.6%

Top

LAB Gain

Huddersfield
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Barry Sheerman (LAB)
Electorate: 66,316
Turnout: 61.11%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	15,725	38.80%	49.18%
CON	11,253	27.77%	28.58%
LIB	10,023	24.73%	11.55%
OTH	3,523	8.69%	10.70%
LAB Majority	4,472	11.04%	Pred Maj 20.60%

Chance of winning

LAB

86.8%

CON

12.6%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.5%

Top

Hull East
County/Area: Humber area (Humberside)
MP: Karl Turner (LAB)
Electorate: 67,530
Turnout: 50.62%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	16,387	47.94%	58.31%
LIB	7,790	22.79%	9.61%
CON	5,667	16.58%	17.39%
OTH	4,340	12.70%	14.70%
LAB Majority	8,597	25.15%	Pred Maj 40.92%

Chance of winning

LAB

98.2%

LIB

0.0%

CON

1.6%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Hull North
County/Area: Humber area (Humberside)
MP: Diana Johnson (LAB)
Electorate: 64,082
Turnout: 51.95%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	13,044	39.18%	49.55%
LIB	12,403	37.26%	24.07%
CON	4,365	13.11%	13.92%
OTH	3,479	10.45%	12.45%
LAB Majority	641	1.93%	Pred Maj 25.48%

Chance of winning

LAB

92.8%

LIB

3.1%

CON

3.5%

OTH

0.6%

Top

Hull West and Hessle
County/Area: Humber area (Humberside)
MP: Alan Johnson (LAB)
Electorate: 57,264
Turnout: 55.02%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	13,378	42.46%	52.83%
LIB	7,636	24.24%	11.05%
CON	6,361	20.19%	21.00%
OTH	4,130	13.11%	15.11%
LAB Majority	5,742	18.23%	Pred Maj 31.84%

Chance of winning

LAB

94.4%

LIB

0.1%

CON

4.9%

OTH

0.6%

Top

Huntingdon
County/Area: Cambridgeshire (East Anglia)
MP: Jonathan Djanogly (CON)
Electorate: 83,557
Turnout: 64.94%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	26,516	48.86%	49.68%
LIB	15,697	28.93%	15.63%
LAB	5,982	11.02%	21.48%
MIN	3,258	6.00%	6.00%
OTH	2,813	5.18%	7.20%
CON Majority	10,819	19.94%	Pred Maj 28.20%

Chance of winning

CON

94.1%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

5.5%

MIN

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Hyndburn
County/Area: Lancashire (Lancashire)
MP: Graham Jones (LAB)
Electorate: 67,221
Turnout: 63.48%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	17,531	41.08%	47.52%
CON	14,441	33.84%	34.34%
LIB	5,033	11.79%	3.62%
OTH	3,530	8.27%	9.51%
MIN	2,137	5.01%	5.01%
LAB Majority	3,090	7.24%	Pred Maj 13.17%

Chance of winning

LAB

85.4%

CON

14.5%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

MIN

0.0%

Top

Ilford North
County/Area: Redbridge (North London)
MP: Lee Scott (CON)
Electorate: 72,372
Turnout: 64.97%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	21,506	45.74%	46.30%
LAB	16,102	34.25%	41.47%
LIB	5,966	12.69%	3.51%
OTH	3,444	7.32%	8.72%
CON Majority	5,404	11.49%	Pred Maj 4.84%

Chance of winning

CON

58.6%

LAB

41.3%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Ilford South
County/Area: Redbridge (North London)
MP: Mike Gapes (LAB)
Electorate: 86,220
Turnout: 59.37%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	25,301	49.42%	59.07%
CON	14,014	27.38%	28.13%
LIB	8,679	16.95%	4.69%
OTH	3,197	6.25%	8.11%
LAB Majority	11,287	22.05%	Pred Maj 30.94%

Chance of winning

LAB

95.8%

CON

4.2%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Ipswich
County/Area: Suffolk (East Anglia)
MP: Ben Gummer (CON)
Electorate: 78,371
Turnout: 59.90%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	18,371	39.14%	39.88%
LAB	16,292	34.71%	44.24%
LIB	8,556	18.23%	6.11%
OTH	3,722	7.93%	9.77%
CON Majority	2,079	4.43%	Pred Maj 4.36%

Chance of winning

CON

39.9%

LAB

59.6%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.5%

Top

LAB Gain

Isle of Wight
County/Area: Hampshire (South)
MP: Andrew Turner (CON)
Electorate: 109,966
Turnout: 63.90%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	32,810	46.70%	47.47%
LIB	22,283	31.71%	19.02%
LAB	8,169	11.63%	21.61%
OTH	7,002	9.97%	11.89%
CON Majority	10,527	14.98%	Pred Maj 25.86%

Chance of winning

CON

90.7%

LIB

1.2%

LAB

7.5%

OTH

0.6%

Top

Islington North
County/Area: Islington (North London)
MP: Jeremy Corbyn (LAB)
Electorate: 68,120
Turnout: 65.41%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	24,276	54.49%	65.87%
LIB	11,875	26.65%	12.19%
CON	6,339	14.23%	15.11%
OTH	2,064	4.63%	6.83%
LAB Majority	12,401	27.83%	Pred Maj 50.75%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.8%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.2%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Islington South and Finsbury
County/Area: Islington (North London)
MP: Emily Thornberry (LAB)
Electorate: 67,649
Turnout: 64.38%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	18,407	42.26%	53.64%
LIB	14,838	34.07%	19.60%
CON	8,449	19.40%	20.29%
OTH	1,861	4.27%	6.47%
LAB Majority	3,569	8.19%	Pred Maj 33.36%

Chance of winning

LAB

93.8%

LIB

1.3%

CON

4.7%

OTH

0.2%

Top

Jarrow
County/Area: Newcastle area (North)
MP: Stephen Hepburn (LAB)
Electorate: 64,350
Turnout: 60.27%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	20,910	53.91%	63.83%
CON	8,002	20.63%	21.41%
LIB	7,163	18.47%	5.86%
OTH	2,709	6.98%	8.90%
LAB Majority	12,908	33.28%	Pred Maj 42.43%

Chance of winning

LAB

99.1%

CON

0.9%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top

Keighley
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
MP: Kris Hopkins (CON)
Electorate: 65,893
Turnout: 72.38%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	20,003	41.94%	42.54%
LAB	17,063	35.78%	43.45%
LIB	7,059	14.80%	5.05%
OTH	3,567	7.48%	8.96%
CON Majority	2,940	6.16%	Pred Maj 0.91%

Chance of winning

CON

45.2%

LAB

54.5%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.3%

Top

LAB Gain

Kenilworth and Southam
County/Area: Warwickshire (East Midlands)
MP: Jeremy Wright (CON)
Electorate: 64,362
Turnout: 75.25%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	25,945	53.57%	54.39%
LIB	13,393	27.65%	14.22%
LAB	6,949	14.35%	24.92%
OTH	2,144	4.43%	6.47%
CON Majority	12,552	25.92%	Pred Maj 29.48%

Chance of winning

CON

94.7%

LIB

0.3%

LAB

4.9%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Kensington
County/Area: Kensington and Chelsea (North London)
MP: Sir Malcolm Rifkind (CON)
Electorate: 65,961
Turnout: 53.29%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	17,595	50.06%	50.92%
LAB	8,979	25.54%	36.67%
LIB	6,872	19.55%	5.41%
OTH	1,704	4.85%	7.00%
CON Majority	8,616	24.51%	Pred Maj 14.25%

Chance of winning

CON

79.6%

LAB

20.2%

LIB

0.1%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Kettering
County/Area: Northamptonshire (East Anglia)
MP: Philip Hollobone (CON)
Electorate: 68,837
Turnout: 68.75%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	23,247	49.12%	49.76%
LAB	14,153	29.90%	38.19%
LIB	7,498	15.84%	5.31%
OTH	2,430	5.13%	6.73%
CON Majority	9,094	19.21%	Pred Maj 11.58%

Chance of winning

CON

76.1%

LAB

23.8%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.1%

Top

Kingston and Surbiton
County/Area: Kingston Upon Thames (South London)
MP: Edward Davey (LIB)
Electorate: 81,116
Turnout: 70.41%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LIB	28,428	49.78%	35.31%
CON	20,868	36.54%	37.43%
LAB	5,337	9.34%	20.73%
OTH	2,478	4.34%	6.54%
LIB Majority	7,560	13.24%	Pred Maj 2.12%

Chance of winning

LIB

37.5%

CON

49.2%

LAB

12.5%

OTH

0.8%

Top

CON Gain

Kingswood
County/Area: Bristol area (West)
MP: Chris Skidmore (CON)
Electorate: 66,361
Turnout: 72.19%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
CON	19,362	40.42%	41.05%
LAB	16,917	35.31%	43.50%
LIB	8,072	16.85%	6.44%
OTH	3,555	7.42%	9.00%
CON Majority	2,445	5.10%	Pred Maj 2.44%

Chance of winning

CON

42.0%

LAB

57.6%

LIB

0.0%

OTH

0.4%

Top

LAB Gain

Knowsley
County/Area: Merseyside (Lancashire)
MP: George Howarth (LAB)
Electorate: 79,561
Turnout: 56.13%

	2010 Votes	2010 Share	Predicted Votes
LAB	31,650	70.87%	78.16%
LIB	5,964	13.35%	4.09%
CON	4,004	8.97%	9.53%
OTH	3,040	6.81%	8.21%
LAB Majority	25,686	57.52%	Pred Maj 68.62%

Chance of winning

LAB

100.0%

LIB

0.0%

CON

0.0%

OTH

0.0%

Top